Open 845 | 09:12 [Game Over]
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Andante SheSurvivorShe
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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You have offered literally no reasons I'm scummy besides night kill WIFOM that flipped scum were actively pushing so... this is very hypocritical and bad faith which should be obviousIn post 473, The Muffin Man wrote:this is exactly why dwlee brings me to elo. he can't easily pin down on why I'm scummy, so he's focusing on lack of activity (which if you wanna try to explain why that's scummy as opposed to NAI, go for it) and trying really hard to build a narrative of why I would choose this Elo and he wouldn't (despite the fact that all the reasons for him not choosing it apply just as much to me if not more so)I prefer they, thanks :)-
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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Yea this is actually extremely damning for you because I'm pretty sure Koba's townread on you was based on you seeming new because it was all weak sauce level 0 stuff. Like you come into this ELO on 26 post coast, and you're not a new player? And you also clearly have enough knowledge to try to setup frame jobs with night kills if you're not new? Like idk I once killed literally everyone who townread me to argue in an ELO that the night kills obviously didn't point to me because everyone who townread me died and scumread the person who voted me. But thats what your entire argument is based on. Again, I reiterate, you have not offered a single reason I'm scummy besides the night kills seemingly pointing to me, which isIn post 470, The Muffin Man wrote:in reference to these three posts:
again, your entire argument for me being scum is that I apparently would do these things? which I'm assuming is based on this being a new account, but I'm quite obviously not a new playerthe argument the flipped scum was pushing on my slot.
This literally all applies to me and I already argued it. But I also was obviously set to vote you, so it comes down to whether you think Malcolm or Frogs is more likey to vote with you.but yah, your entire pitch here fails to account for why I don't just shoot the conftown (when a frog/dwlee/me endgame doubles my odds of getting a vote on town and I only close down my options while still having to 1v1 there if scum so.... it's like ???? as an explanation for me either)
Which brings me to:
Based on their last posts they were looking at Koba calling me an IC. There was clearly momentum there and they were listening to my arguments and engaging with me, looking at my previous ELOs where I engage in the same way, etc.you're arguing that frog had momentum to TR you --> I don't think his engaging with you is the same thing as "momentum to TR", it's just part of assessing? I certainly don't think that based on his final posts you'd have had any sort of confidence that you had brought him round enough for him not to insta-vote you
It still would have been a better bet than killing conftown like I think this kill would be extremely bad if I were scum.and for the 3rd bit again that you'd have to be assuming my reads were unchanged and I don't think that's something you realistically think if being honestI prefer they, thanks :)-
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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And note that despite saying highest accuracy is in looking at past days, their main argument is (reiterating)In post 473, The Muffin Man wrote:anyway, malc, is this helpful or nah? I can be around and respond to dwlee if you like, if you wanna ask me about what I was thinking at certain points in the game I can do that insofar as I remember, but like lowkey idk if any of that really makes choosing easier and I stand by the fact that highest accuracy in elo comes from looking at past days (the main reason why I'm even talking today is bc I know my content has been low and therefore I figure it might be harder to base a choice just off that)the argument flipped scum used on the night kills, not actually past daysI prefer they, thanks :)-
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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Your trajectory is unknown vs leaving conftown alive. I would go for the unknown that last townread me in this scenario.In post 470, The Muffin Man wrote: this makes zero sense and totally disregards my ability to read up overnight? also we'll pick up on this later, but I think it's disingenuous to not think that my reads would change from pre-Galron-or-NM-flips after those both came round -- but I never got the chance to talk about either until now
Except my progression is extremely natural vs just looking good. Scum can choose to look good by having right reads but will fail in having a progression that makes sense. You can see that when Frog votes NM I'm sorting Frog, not just going "oh okay bus time." Like you can feel the gears ticking in my head that go "okay engaging with frogs, realizing roleblocker interaction, frogs is townie on this engage, solve acquired"NM was going down yesterday regardless of what you did, and your play around him was in no way clearing -- firstly because ofc scum are bussing there) and the speed of your vote actually was antitown bc it let NM drop the self and end day early, which is actually v convenient when you wanna, let's say, target someone who hasn't posted before they get a chance to
You can't just "mmm" the obvious framing of NM here like you don't have an argument because it is just that obvious that NM is trying to mislim me with that argumentmmmmI prefer they, thanks :)-
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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This post in particular is very bad because they have one post voting Galron this day phase, no other discussion, and are like yea okay we can end thisIn post 333, The Muffin Man wrote:
What else needs to be discussedIn post 313, DkKoba wrote:thats E-1, please someoen unvote so we can maintain discussion time for now
How is this townie lolI prefer they, thanks :)-
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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Oh who said I was townie based on past daysIn post 315, Dwlee99 wrote:
This does check out with the information available to meIn post 312, Frogsterking wrote:I think you seem kinda townie dwylee, based on D2 posting.I prefer they, thanks :)-
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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TLDR: i don't think I'd make the night kill but also like night kill spec bad when flipped scum tried to use it specifically to murder me, and muffin's main argument is literally the flipped scum argument for me being scum - the night kills. In extremely basic terms: NM says "dwlee scum cause koba night kill" and now Muffin comes into today with the only argument for me being scum based on these night kills. Because that was the entire scum plan to win.
TLDR (extended version): Muffin hard coasted through day two and was fine with day ending after they made one post with essentially a naked vote which is not a townie thought process at all.
TLDR (extended extended version): Muffin is talking out of both sides his mouth saying look at past days and then only arguing I'm scum cause night kills.I prefer they, thanks :)-
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MalcolmTucker Mafia Scum
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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I think the role thing annoys me the most mainly cause it's just like factually wrong
Anyway, last post on this gg y'allI prefer they, thanks :)-
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Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
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Dwlee99 was eliminated. They were a...
Spoiler:
MalcolmTucker,Town Vanilla Cop, has been endgamed.
The Muffin Man,Mafia Goon, has survived.
Congratulations to the Mafia team of Not_Mafia and The Muffin Man!It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!-
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Frogsterking He/himJack of All TradesHe/him
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MalcolmTucker Mafia Scum
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MalcolmTucker Mafia Scum
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Was aware that was a possibility, but your average finding will still be town more often than goon. Anyway, apologies, called it wrong.In post 486, Dwlee99 wrote:Well you were wrong lol
The final mafia was a GOON.Meaning your result shows vanilla on them.Your result was literally completely irrelevant-
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivorThey/them
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The result did not make muffin more likely to be town once NM flipped roleblocker.In post 493, MalcolmTucker wrote:
Was aware that was a possibility, but your average finding will still be town more often than goon. Anyway, apologies, called it wrong.In post 486, Dwlee99 wrote:Well you were wrong lol
The final mafia was a GOON.Meaning your result shows vanilla on them.Your result was literally completely irrelevant
After N1 the game is
4x VT
Vanilla Cop
Roleblocker
Goon
So if you get "vanilla" result, then the chance of them being scum is now 1/5 fypov (as they are confirmed not roleblocker)
With no result, their chance of being scum is 2/6 > 1/5
So vanilla makes it more likely they're town there
Once the roleblocker flipped (and in ELO) the setup was
VT
Vanilla Cop
Goon
Probability of muffin scum given vanilla is 1/2
Probability of muffin scum given no result is still 1/2, because both remaining people were vanilla.
So your result had no relationship to the probability muffin was scum or not because the probability doesn't shift with getting the result.I prefer they, thanks :)-
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RH9 he/himMafia Scum
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RH9 he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Andante SheSurvivorShe
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Thank you everyone for joining my first ever game to mod!! I know I had a lot of fun with this, I hope each and every one of you enjoyed playing!!! If there was anything you wish I did differently, feel free to share!!Shoutout to my awesome co mod Something_Smart!! Shoutout to the awesome spectators we had too!! This game was pretty fun to follow!!! From limming the town tracker in the first 5 hours of the game to how it ended, definitely fun to watch!! I hope to see all yall in future games!!! Even if you don't want to play, feel free to join the spec party!!!
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Now for the part I know yall want.... the PTs!!! I'm giving mafia 24 hours for redactions, so that one will get posted tomorrow.
If you wanna check out the dead people/spectator party... That is located .
If you wanna see me figure out what I was doing, That is located .-
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The Muffin Man he/himTowniehe/him
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gg all
thanks for modding, andante
@malc, for what it’s worth that was a tough spot to be in. I do think that generally elo decisions are best made on the strength only of prior days but the other thing to consider is whether a player is the kind who tends more towards playing mechanically (a la our charming co-mod S_S) or someone who likes to set up a particular endgame and play for that (more my style, but obv it was impossible for you to know that at the time)-
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Andante SheSurvivor
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