Mini 611 - Troy, Meet Helen (Game Over)

[Lord Gurgi]

Charter, it's not that you thought of something afterward, though I would like to think that some thought goes into these posts, it's that you changed your mind almost immediately after, and it seems like that could be quick footwork to change something you thought looked bad. Also hypocrisy is usually not good.

I'm not sure how people just assumed I thought CF Riot was scum, I didn't even mention his name in my post. I was more, and am, more suspicious of charter because of his accusing CF Riot for something that he then proceeded to do.

Thanks mod, and also I am so happy that we have real discussion by page 2, <3 guys, <3.

[ShadowGirl]

I don't think it's any good to try speculate about SK until N1. Figuring out how many scum there are is a bit more productive, as it has sparked conversation.

Anyway, I would think that there's either three scum or two scum and a SK. We've seen from what last game that the roles can get pretty interesting.

[CF Riot]

It's not the fact that you post 3 times, it's the fact that two of them directly conflict with each other when there was no information in between to change your mind. And it wasn't trivia, it was giving an example of my personality based on a similar situation. (Each spin on a slot machine is supposed to be completely random, regardless of its odds being good or bad.)

I meant to ask this earlier. Had, (or anyone who knows) what other 3rd party role is there besides SK? I know there can be multiple killing families, but that's highly unlikely here.

[charter]

Which are the two posts where I change my mind?

[CF Riot]

21-22. Not exactly changing your mind, more like contradicting yourself.

[charter]

21-22. Not exactly changing your mind, more like contradicting yourself.

Ah, I see what you guys are saying now. I used the words 'change my mind' because that's what Gurgi said I did.

[farside22]

I don't think it's any good to try speculate about SK until N1. Figuring out how many scum there are is a bit more productive, as it has sparked conversation.

Anyway, I would think that there's either three scum or two scum and a SK. We've seen from what last game that the roles can get pretty interesting.

How can you say it's not good to speculate and then speculate?

[ShadowGirl]

I don't think it's any good to try speculate about SK until N1. Figuring out how many scum there are is a bit more productive, as it has sparked conversation.

Anyway, I would think that there's either three scum or two scum and a SK. We've seen from what last game that the roles can get pretty interesting.

How can you say it's not good to speculate and then speculate?

My wording didn't come out right. 'Not good' in the sense that for the moment it doesn't help us much.

[Mizzy]

Vote Count:

Hadhfang 2 (Tinsley, ShadowGirl)
charter 2 (Lord Gurgi, Netlava)
Lord Gurgi 1 (farside22)
CF Riot 1 (charter)
Netlava 1 (Macavenger)
Walnut 1 (Hadhfang)
farside22 1 (Battousai)

Not Voting:

Blackberry, Walnut, CF Riot

12 alive = 7 to lynch!

[Netlava]

Doesn't make you look scummy but where did you get this? I don't think he even mentioned me.

His SK proposal seemed out of the blue, so I just assumed that because that was what I was thinking.

The stat seems to be more of an example of regression towards the mean.

[Hadhfang]

Hmmm, My thoughts so far are that the SK thing is a bit of a wierd thing to do, but I can't really see anything in Charter's assumption thing really, if i'm honest.

[Tinsley]

Some thoughts so far:

CF Riot - Seemed like an innocent statistical mistake at first. Then in post 48, you admitted you knew Had was just as likely to be scum in this game as anyone else. I know when you take both games into account he only has a 1/16 chance, but the fact that you posted it that way was misleading.

charter - I took his posts to mean that he assumed 3 scum in figuring the odds, just as CF Riot did. I don't find it scummy.

Lord Gurgi - I don't see how the town can gain from assuming there are 3 scum and 1SK. I'm a noob, but I would think making a statement like that would only invoke distrust or paranoia among everyone.

Battousai - Quickly votes farside after she votes Lord Gurgi, but says it was a random vote with a bit of information. Was it because you disagreed with her? Was she too quick to change her vote? Do you think she's scum, or was it a truly random vote?

FOS: CF Riot and Lord Gurgi

[farside22]

I don't think it's any good to try speculate about SK until N1. Figuring out how many scum there are is a bit more productive, as it has sparked conversation.

Anyway, I would think that there's either three scum or two scum and a SK. We've seen from what last game that the roles can get pretty interesting.

How can you say it's not good to speculate and then speculate?

My wording didn't come out right. 'Not good' in the sense that for the moment it doesn't help us much.

That doesn't answer my question. It is like Fosing people for FOSing. Your comment is contradictory to your post.

[Walnut]

Anyway, I would think that there's either three scum or two scum and a SK. We've seen from what last game that the roles can get pretty interesting.
I meant to ask this earlier. Had, (or anyone who knows) what other 3rd party role is there besides SK? I know there can be multiple killing families, but that's highly unlikely here.

Listed on the wiki at http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Roles . I would recommend the flash introduction to roles by mikeburnfire (linked from that page). It is really well done and easy to get an understanding from. Once you look at that you may rethink the comment about 3 scum or 2 scum and a SK...

[CF Riot]

After looking at that flash, I'm pretty convinced SK is the only likely 3rd party role in this game. At the same time, I agree that there's no point guessing at it when it's very nearly confirmed if there are 2 night kills by D2. I don't see why this would make me rethink that comment though. Clarify Walnut?

[ShadowGirl]

I don't think it's any good to try speculate about SK until N1. Figuring out how many scum there are is a bit more productive, as it has sparked conversation.

Anyway, I would think that there's either three scum or two scum and a SK. We've seen from what last game that the roles can get pretty interesting.

How can you say it's not good to speculate and then speculate?

My wording didn't come out right. 'Not good' in the sense that for the moment it doesn't help us much.

That doesn't answer my question. It is like Fosing people for FOSing. Your comment is contradictory to your post.

Yes it does. What I'm saying is that no matter how much we speculate we can't know for certain until N1.

Also, Walnut, the last two sentences in your quote aren't mine. But thank you for the link, nonetheless.

[Hadhfang]

After looking at that flash, I'm pretty convinced SK is the only likely 3rd party role in this game. At the same time, I agree that there's no point guessing at it when it's very nearly confirmed if there are 2 night kills by D2. I don't see why this would make me rethink that comment though. Clarify Walnut?

There could be cult leaders or survivers though, that's not above possibility. Tbh, speculation on 3rd party roles offers us no help at all, until someone makes a hint at their role if they are pro-town. Having said that Lord Guri's post was that there are likely to be either 3 scum or 3 scum and a SK, it was Charter that brought up the speculation about it.

Vote:Charter

[charter]

Is there any reason you're voting for me now rather than when I first said I'm assuming there's three mafia? I don't understand why you waited so long if that's your reason for voting me.

Fishing for pro-town roles to drop hints that you can pick up? Makes me wonder, why do you care who the pro town roles are?

Note liking Had's waiting so long to vote for me. Also not liking Riot's misleading stat trying to make us think there's very little chance Had is scum.

[farside22]

After looking at that flash, I'm pretty convinced SK is the only likely 3rd party role in this game. At the same time, I agree that there's no point guessing at it when it's very nearly confirmed if there are 2 night kills by D2. I don't see why this would make me rethink that comment though. Clarify Walnut?

There could be cult leaders or survivers though, that's not above possibility. Tbh, speculation on 3rd party roles offers us no help at all, until someone makes a hint at their role if they are pro-town. Having said that Lord Guri's post was that there are likely to be either 3 scum or 3 scum and a SK, it was Charter that brought up the speculation about it.

Vote:Charter

Not entirely true. Riot started the % chance people could get same role. Charter gave % change and speculated on set up (which 12 player is 3 scum typically). Why is specualating about how many scum scummy?

[Lord Gurgi]

Farside, I would ask you why bringing up the SK is bad. On much the same grounds as a matter of fact.

[farside22]

Farside, I would ask you why bringing up the SK is bad. On much the same grounds as a matter of fact.

SK is more pointless discussion as there is no reason to suspect a SK till D2 is upon us to see if there is one kill or two. Scum are an obvious equation.

[CF Riot]

Charter, my stat is not misleading as I've already said, everyone knows each game is randomly picked but I like to look at things like that because that's how I play. No one really votes according to percentages anyways, they vote on actions, so my post's benefit was really more from the discussion we got from it not the actual number. And I didn't say it but that number I came up with goes for you too since you were mafia last game also. I'm not defending Had but if I was I'd be defending you just as much.

I'd also like to add that I'm eating the

most

delicious apple right now. So good.

[charter]

It IS misleading. If someone wasn't good at statistics and just read over it and didn't think about it, they would assume there's a tiny (~5%) chance that Had is scum again, based on your statement. You failed to mention me in there which makes me think there's a reason for that.

[Netlava]

Hmm, I agree, Had's late vote is suspicious. It seems counterintuitive to vote Charter for some SK discussion while shrugging off Charter's blatant assumption contradiction earlier.

@ CF Riot: I don't get it bc there's no reason for it whatsoever. Unless you're scum.

[Tinsley]

There's a 1/16 chance that Hadhfang would get mafia both games, assuming the number of mafia hasn't changed for this game.

That's 6.25% chance he's mafia.

Just sayin'.

I think that is certainly misleading. I could see how a mathematically challenged person could read that and believe that Had is less likely to be scum.

And I didn't say it

but that number I came up with goes for you too since you were mafia last game also.

That was the other key issue I had with that statement. You singled out Had, when your logic should have applied to charter as well.