Thespival Mafia (Denouement)

Greasy Spot · Post Post #75 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 10:53 am

As I said earlier. I would take a 1/21 chance you guessed wrong than tell you who I was.

ISO · Post Post #76 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 10:57 am

Greasy Spot, are you the Jester, or not? I think you are either the Jester or Mafia, and will be pushing for your lynch. If you are the Jester, you should claim now before you lose. I'd rather catch some scum than lynch you - it is in both your best interests, and mine as an innocent.

Greasy Spot · Post Post #77 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 10:58 am

What if I did claim Jester? Are you just gonna take my word for it?

ISO · Post Post #78 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:00 am

Obviously, we'll have to see if anyone else counterclaims. You might still be scummy scum scum trying to throw a monkey wrench in the works. But if no one counterclaims, absolutely.

Greasy Spot · Post Post #79 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:04 am

unbelievable....

ISO · Post Post #80 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:05 am

(It should go without saying, but I'll say it anyway:

DO NOT LIE if you are innocent. Aside from the general Lynch All Liars metagame practice - and you will be found out if you lie, sooner or later - it completely screws up the plan. The real Jester will counterclaim you, we'll assume that one of you is scum, and BAD THINGS will happen.)

ISO · Post Post #81 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:05 am

I see you have failed to answer. Are you scum?

Greasy Spot · Post Post #82 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:08 am

I have not lied just questioned your urgency to out the Jester.

ISO · Post Post #83 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:10 am

Are you the Jester or not? This is not a difficult question. We have conclusively shown that if you are the Jester you should say so, and that was before my threat of lynching you. Obviously if you are innocent you should say that too. The only reason for your waffling is if you are scum and aren't sure what to do. So, I ask again: Are you scum?

Greasy Spot · Post Post #84 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:14 am

There is not conclusive evidence you have shown. It resembles stupidity to me that you think someone will identify themselves with a huge target on there back just to make you happy.

wolfcrier · Post Post #85 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:18 am

(Hey sorry I haven't posted yet, I've been grounded but I read everything soo)

ISO · Post Post #86 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:24 am

Vote: Greasy Spot

I don't think he's the Jester (rereading - he would've known his own win condition if he were), and I think he would've

said

he wasn't by now if he were innocent. I think we've got our first scum.

ISO · Post Post #87 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:25 am

(Jester should still come out, though, so as not to be killed by the Mafia or any lone gunman types we might have out there. See Pooky's excellent post if you are unconvinced.)

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #88 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:31 am

vote: greasy spot

learn to read please.

Greasy Spot · Post Post #89 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:41 am

PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
vote: greasy spot

learn to read please.

I read just fine. The only win scenario for the town or the mafia is if you know who the jester is and lynch him today; otherwise he wins.

Greasy Spot · Post Post #90 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:42 am

More power to the jester!!!

Greasy Spot · Post Post #91 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:43 am

mith wrote:
Vote: Greasy Spot

I don't think he's the Jester (rereading - he would've known his own win condition if he were), and I think he would've
said
he wasn't by now if he were innocent. I think we've got our first scum.

Just because I don't say who I am doesn't mean I'm scum. Maybe I think you're scum.

Vote: mith

petroleumjelly · Post Post #92 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:45 am

As much as I enjoy voting Dani Banani, I clearly need to

Vote: Greasy Spot

.

The logic here is very simple (although I could go into a

much

more nuanced description, I do not have the time).

The Jester needs to make sure they

are not nightkilled

- if that happens, they

lose

. By not claiming, the Jester runs the risk

every single night of losing automatically

. However, the mafia has

absolutely no incentive to nightkill a Jester

. Why? Because if push comes to shove, if the game gets down to a situation such as the following:

1 Mafia
1 Town
1 Jester

The Mafia would rather have

that

situation over:

1 Mafia
2 Town

In the first situation, the Mafia

at the very least

is going to place either first or second; if the Townsperson votes for the Mafia, the Mafia will need to settle for second place and allow the Jester to win - this will be done in order to avoid a full loss. In the second situation, the mafia has a chance at

losing completely

.

A partial win is better than no win at all, and assuming complete rationality in the mafia, the best move for the Jester is to claim right off the bat.

All players should be

most

concerned with

making sure they do not lose

. There are essentially two choices:

A.) You are either 1st or 2nd
B.) You are either 1st or 3rd

If the Jester does

not

claim, they are opting for Choice B. But why settle for the possibility of being last when you can instead solidate yourself with Ã‡hoice A?

petroleumjelly · Post Post #93 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:48 am

To be clearer: being second is

not the same the losing

- it is still a win, except you are simply

the second faction to win

. Only third place is "losing".

The only exception is that if the Jester is nightkilled (or lynched Day One - which

will not happen if the Jester claims

). In that case, there is only one winner - either the town or the mafia.

Greasy Spot · Post Post #94 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:54 am

The rules don't say anything about the Jestor losing from a nightkill. The rules state he wins if he doesn't get

Lynched

the first day. That's it. Nothing else.

And any place other than winning is losing.

ISO · Post Post #95 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:55 am

Don't say I didn't warn you.

tyhess is a False Prophet to the idol of the Fake Green Card Couch. The true disciples of the couch are showing our power, and we demand your blood.

ISO · Post Post #96 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:56 am

GS, the Jester's role says he or she wins if

and only if

he is

lynched

on a day

other than the first

. Being nightkilled means that he or she

does not win.

petroleumjelly · Post Post #97 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:57 am

Jester Role wrote:You win if and only if you are lynched on any day except the first.

Use some logic, please.

If the Jester dies

any method other than lynching past day one

, the Jester

cannot win

, and therefore

loses

.

Greasy Spot wrote:And any place other than winning is losing.

Exactly.

It is possible for both the Town and the Jester to win. It is also possible for the Mafia and the Jester to win

. The order of winning does not matter - what matters is that factions avoid

losing

, which the Jester does if they are nightkilled.

Greasy Spot · Post Post #98 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:58 am

mith wrote:GS, the Jester's role says he or she wins if
and only if
he is
lynched
on a day
other than the first
. Being nightkilled means that he or she
does not win.

Ok I'll give you that one.

petroleumjelly · Post Post #99 (ISO) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 12:00 pm

Right-o. Jester needs to not be nightkilled.

Now Greasy Spot, riddle me this: can you think of

any

way the Jester can avoid being nightkilled

other

than claiming Jester?

As demonstrated, the Mafia has absolutely no incentive to nightkill the Jester, because the Jester may well be the tool they need in the end to help make sure the Mafia avoids losing.