Thespival Mafia (Denouement)

[mith]

(Mafia, you shouldn't make that statement. That would just confuse the Jester, and we'll all lose.)

[Captain Bandwagon]

I wish I was the jester. I would have made a perfect jester.

[petroleumjelly]

Having the jester claim

immediately

is an absolute

must

. Those who are familiar with Thespival know we debated this for about a half hour, and a roomful of highly experienced players came to that conclusion in an objective atmosphere weighing the pros and cons.

Vote: Dani Banani

. Boy, does

that

bring back memories.

[hasdgfas]

not jester.

[Iammars]

I understand that the Jester should come out, but I am not the Jester.

[Talitha]

Claimed jester is such a sweet role to play, and obviously the best tactical move for everyone except the mafia, BIANTJ.

[mith]

...

Are you trying to convince some poor innocent into thinking they should claim jester falsely? Best tactical move for everyone except the Mafia?

Tally could be scum trying to deny us the power of the Claimed Jester. Remember:

If you're the Jester, claim Jester.
If you're an innocent, claim Not Jester.
If you're MeMe, claim Mafia.
If you're Mafia but not MeMe, act confused because I didn't tell you what to claim.

It's that simple. Best play all around.

[Captain Bandwagon]

mith, can you elaborate on why it's better for the jester to claim now? I don't quite get why the jester would choose to reveal himself.

[mith]

While we wait for the Jester to come out and put himself into a winning position, another discussion:

We have fixed three-week deadlines in this game. I would suggest that by the end of the first week, everyone should have made a

non-random

vote, and that by the end of the second week we narrow things down to two-four top suspects. That leaves us a full week to decide between those bandwagons, or even go a completely different direction if something drastic happens.

I've seen towns with fixed deadlines play the "wait until just before deadline to do everything game", and it is almost always a disaster. Let's make the best use of our time in this game.

[mith]

FOS: Captain Bandwagon

More obvious scum confusion tactics. Jester, don't pay any attention to him, claim away. It's the clear best strategy. Just read my other posts. If you're unsure, ask and I'll clear anything up.

[Captain Bandwagon]

Alright, first things first. The Jester should come out so we don't lynch him or her today. That's in everyone's best interests, right? Except the Mafia's. Jester, if you get lynched today, you lose. So you should come out now so that doesn't happen.

Hopefully the Mafia won't pretend to be the Jester, that would totally screw up this plan.

If the jester gets lynched today, he loses. If he gets lynched after D1, he wins. That means town and scum compete for second place, right? In which case, shouldn't we try and lynch him D1?

How does the mafia benefit from a jester lynch D1? How does scum pretending to be jester screw up "the plan", and more importantly, what does "the plan" aim to accomplish? What is the obvious "strategery"? I don't see it.

[mith]

We don't want to lynch him today. We want to lynch Mafia. Duh. The Jester claiming will help us lynch Mafia, and will keep him or her from losing the game today. It's quite simple.

The plan aims to simultaneously increase the win percentage of the town and the Jester, by screwing over the Mafia. Obviously.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Sigh OMG.

I really hate having to explain everything out in detail. It really annoys me.

SO READ THE FOLLOWING VERY VERY CAREFULLY IF YOU ARE JESTER, I WILL EXPLAIN IN DETAIL WHY YOUR BEST MOVE RIGHT NOW IS TO CLAIM JESTER.

You currently have 2 options, claim jester, or not claim jester.

If you do not claim Jester, you might possibly lose if we lynch you on day one or the mafia nightkill you, or some vigilante might nightkill you that causes an automatic loss FOR YOU. I can not stress this point enough, if a mafia dies, he can still win, if a townie dies, he can still win, IF YOU DIE, YOU LOSE.

If you do claim Jester, what would happen?

Town won't lynch you, this is because the TOWN IS TRYING TO WIN BY KILLING THE MAFIA. Since you are not Mafia, the town certainly won't lynch you because it doesn't get them any closer to victory, one dead jester doesn't get the town closer to victory, one dead mafia is what gets the town closer to victory.

Now fast-foward to endgame, there r 3 players alive, one mafia, one townie, one jester. Now everyone knows who the jester is because he claimed Jester. So what will happen? Jester won't vote for the townie or the mafia because that would result in a Jester loss and BOTH PLAYERS KNOW THIS AND BOTH PLAYERS KNOW WHO THE JESTER IS. Thus the Mafia will vote the jester, jester would win, and mafia will win as well. The similar option does NOT exist for the townie, which means this is the only play that would happen. Now consider what would happen if the 3 players alive are 2 townies and a mafia. If the townies r confirmed or cop investigated or any role involved, Mafia is screwed. Even if both townies have no info, the mafia has a 66% chance of winning if he fools them. Now compare that to the Mafia win percentage if its a Jester+Townie+Mafia left. Mafia Win PErcentage goes from a hundred percent(when Jester is present) to 66% OR WORSE. It's obvious from this that a Mafia WILL PREFER THAT THE JESTER BE ALIVE RATHER THAN DEAD because it's obvious that a MAfia would prefer 100% win percentage to 66% at best.

Thus the Mafia will keep the Jester alive, in fact consider the 4 player endgame of Mafia Townie Townie Jester. At this point, it's impossible to lynch the mafia since the jester would never vote for anyone, and it will end in a NL which would get to the 3 player endgame which ends in a Mafia/Jester victory. In fact if we extrapolate further, we see that at every stage of the game Mafia will prefer having a Jester alive than wasting a nightkill on him.

Thus the mafia HAS NO INCENTIVE TO KILL THE JESTER. The only reason mafia could POSSIBLY kill the jester and cause him to lose IS IF THE JESTER DOES NOT CLAIM and they do not know who he is(Jester-Mafia is a COOPERATIVE relationship in this game setup due to the multiple victory possibilities, which means it is best for both sides for the Jester to come out.)

So what would happen if you claimed? You'd basically be untouchable by everyone, and you would win if the game gets to endgame which about 70% of Mafia games do get to. since there is no doubt that this will be a high level mafia game, the likelihood of you winning is fairly high. Greater than 50% of the casaulties in this game will be nightkill or first day lynch, your best chance of avoiding being part of that casaulty count(and thus a loser) would be to claim and get your untouchable status.

My logic is basically ironproof. If you are confused about anything I've outlined PLEASE read it over and think on it again, if you are still confused, just ask me to elaborate any part.

You are doing this game a grave injustice if you do not fully read over why Jester should definitely claim, and you are not playing to the best of your abilities if you do not claim. You would be grossly negligent to the game and the players if you do not claim.

[mith]

Thanks, Pooky. It was getting frustrating arguing about it, and I just didn't have the time to put together such a detailed and ironclad case.

If the Jester doesn't claim after that, we can only assume he or she is trying to lose.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Or is a complete and utter moron.

I think we should ban him from the site.

Or shame him into quitting.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

That came off sounding harsher than I thought it would.


Maybe we would just give him a title like Thok's. Disgrace to Jesters Everywhere.

[Captain Bandwagon]

Thanks for clarifying, Pooky. That helped a lot.

[hasdgfas]

yay pooky

[Greasy Spot]

How do you figure? The Jester wants to win just like everyone else. The only way for him to win is not to be voted off on day 1. If the town and mafia don't vote him off then he wins they are second.

How again does it make sense for the Jester to reveal himself?

[hasdgfas]

reread jester

[mith]

Did you read Pooky's post at all, GS?

[Talitha]

I didn't mean that it's in every townie's best interest to claim jester. I meant having it happen would be the best outcome for everyone, except mafia. Admittedly I was half asleep when I wrote that and did not check my statement for ambiguity. But it was obvious to me what I meant so it should have been obvious to mith too!

Haha, you can't remove my bold tags anymore: mith

[Greasy Spot]

Sigh OMG.
If you do not claim Jester, you might possibly lose if we lynch you on day one or the mafia nightkill you, or some vigilante might nightkill you that causes an automatic loss FOR YOU. I can not stress this point enough, if a mafia dies, he can still win, if a townie dies, he can still win, IF YOU DIE, YOU LOSE.

The rules don't say that. You might die anytime during the game but unless you are

Lynched

on day one you are the winner. Plain and Simple. I would take a 1/21 odds not to get lynched any time.

There is a Jester, whose win condition reads as such:
Jester Win Condition wrote:

You win if and only if you are lynched on any day except the first. Please note that once all other anti-town roles have been killed, the game will end whether or not you have been lynched.

Note: If the Jester wins, we will continue playing for 2nd place.

If you do claim Jester, what would happen?

Town won't lynch you, this is because the TOWN IS TRYING TO WIN BY KILLING THE MAFIA. Since you are not Mafia, the town certainly won't lynch you because it doesn't get them any closer to victory, one dead jester doesn't get the town closer to victory, one dead mafia is what gets the town closer to victory.

The town (or Mafia) won't

WIN

unless the Jester gets Lynched Day 1. Why should the town or Mafia settle for second place, especially if the Jester reveals himself.

[hasdgfas]

READ ROLE.

[mith]

"You win if and only if you are lynched on any day except the first."

If the Jester is NKed, the Jester loses.

FOS: Greasy Spot

. More Mafia confusion.

Tally, I could. But Thesp might not be happy about it.