Open 58--Texas Showdown - Over - before 545

[Jester]

After giving it some thought, I'm inclined to go with Incognito this time. ssf, you haven't given a reason why you're certain one or the other is scum. Do you think they're distancing?

And what they were doing struck me as "getting into it" rather than something more harsh because I've seen very much harsher exchanges on this site. A little sarcasm and someone calling someone else a "retard", to me, doesn't comprise much beyond "getting into it." But sure, I'll bite. Flameaxe, you say that the two of you were "WAY past" this point in your 68. Of your posts leading up to 68, which one were you most angry when you wrote it? 54?

[Nocmen]

I think that ssf is playing with the numbers, not really what is exactly they are trying to get done.

[somestrangeflea]

Your statement could be a subtle attempt at paving the way for a mis-vig if one of us is lynched.

I fail to see how

I'm

paving the the way for a mis-vig when...

If I'm hammered, I know exactly who I'm vigging.

I think that ssf is playing with the numbers, not really what is exactly they are trying to get done.

The odds of at least one of any two players (besides myself) in the game being scum are 83.33...%. That is, the odds of the first player being scum (which includes the scenario where both are scum), 50%, added to the odds of the first player not being scum and the second player being scum, 33.33% (50%*66.66...%).

Oh, and I started making the numbers part of the post before Nocmen posted, I just got interrupted midway, and your post was there when I Previewed!

ssf, you haven't given a reason why you're certain one or the other is scum.

Take the scenario of two players attacking each other fiercely. When you take into consideration the fact that the first townie to get lynched gets a vig, I do not believe that two townies are likely to fight tooth and nail to get each other lynched, simply out of fear of getting vigged and losing the game if they're wrong.

Also, take into account that, if neither Flameaxe nor Incognito is scum, then Nocmen and you

both

are, and I believe that the first situation is far more likely... Reading through pages 2 and 3 under the assumption that they are both town just doesn't work.

[Incognito]

SSF: While you're here, who do you see as the most likely scum-pairing given the current information we have at hand?

Actually, that might be a good idea to ask everyone. Can everyone please answer the question above?

[Jester]

Take the scenario of two players attacking each other fiercely. When you take into consideration the fact that the first townie to get lynched gets a vig, I do not believe that two townies are likely to fight tooth and nail to get each other lynched, simply out of fear of getting vigged and losing the game if they're wrong.

::nods:: That makes a certain amount of sense, I think. Of course, people can talk (or threaten) about who they might vig, but you never know for sure until they actually do it.

Actually, that might be a good idea to ask everyone. Can everyone please answer the question above?

I'm still pretty sure at this point that Nocmen is scum. Who the other is, I have no idea. I notice that you didn't answer your own question. Still think FlameAxe is scum? If so, who do you think his partner is?

[Nocmen]

Now Jester, why would you think that I would be scum?

The people that most look to be scum to me right now are Incognito and ssf

[somestrangeflea]

Incognito and Nocmen, although to be fair, the Nocmen is fairly OMGUS, since I have absolutely no idea where his opinion of me changed. 76 is a comment about numbers, but doesn't really lean either way. Before that, you were all for the Incog<=>Flameaxe pairing.

What changed?

[Nocmen]

I really think that right now, Incognito is one of the scum. For the second, as I said, I have ssf, with Flameaxe right behind. This is because I'm seeing the whole fight between Incognito and Flameaxe as well as ssf's number game WIFOMy. Each time I read over it, I just think the other is scum.

[Incognito]

I'm still pretty sure at this point that Nocmen is scum. Who the other is, I have no idea. I notice that you didn't answer your own question. Still think FlameAxe is scum? If so, who do you think his partner is?

I'm glad you asked actually. I believe the scum pairing is Flameaxe and Nocmen. Here's my reasoning:

Firstly, Flameaxe had basically been lurking until I called him out about it.

Secondly, as you've mentioned in the thread previously, Nocmen's posts have said next to nothing all game.

Thirdly, I found the following post from Nocmen to be interesting:

Well he posted on Tuesday, and I haven't seen you post in a while besides meta content.

This was a post that Nocmen made after I asked the mod for news about Flameaxe's status. Prior to this post, Nocmen had made a post about Flameaxe's non-contributive ways, Flameaxe posted to let us know that he would be V/LA, I allowed a few days to pass before asking for his status again, and despite the fact that Flameaxe STILL hadn't really contributed, Nocmen still made the above statement in Post 39 which seems to defend Flameaxe, AND he went even further to cast deflective suspicion back at me despite the fact that I had been more contributory than the both of them combined.

Fourthly, Nocmen's comment about mine and Flameaxe's supposed distancing struck me as off, as I've mentioned previously, and I could see that as Nocmen's attempt to link his own scum partner with me.

[Flameaxe]

Mod: VC please.

[Khelvaster]

Second Votecount--Just one change from the first

It will take 3 votes to lynch with 5 people alive.

Somestrangeflea(2)--Incognito, Jester
Flameaxe(1)--Somestrangeflea
Incognito(1)---Flameaxe

[Incognito]

Mod:

Um. I'm currently not voting.

[somestrangeflea]

This is because I'm seeing the whole fight between Incognito and Flameaxe as well as ssf's number game WIFOMy.

I'm sorry, are numbers

all

you see?

Oh, and

Unvote, Vote: Incognito

.

Oh, and my last post was 47 hours ago. I hardly see that as prodworthy, kthx.

[Incognito]

Oh, and

Unvote, Vote: Incognito

.

Question: Why? You never really stated your reasons.

[somestrangeflea]

Oh, and

Unvote, Vote: Incognito

.

Question: Why? You never really stated your reasons.

Because Flameaxe isn't one of

Incognito and Nocmen

And a combination of gut and

An admittance?

In short, it's not very strong, but it's always good to have a vote on

someone

. Let's everyone know where you stand.

[Incognito]

Hmmm. Well in that case my vote belongs on Nocmen and since Nocmen most likely will not hammer himself, then I guess I'm gonna be today's lynch.

Vote: Nocmen

[Nocmen]

Very funny, a vote on me.

SSF, the numbers are not all that I see persay, but they are what I see as you trying to put scum blame on someone else.

[Jester]

Mod

, my vote was moved to Nocmen, unless I did it wrong.

[Jester]

Incognito, you've now voted for everyone except me. You went out of your way to say that your first vote, on somestrangeflea, was not random. Care to talk about why it wasn't random?

somestrangeflea, please remove your vote on Incognito. You've got him sitting on L-1, which you definitely should not be doing if you feel your vote is weak. At the moment, the only people not voting on Incognito are Nocmen and myself, and Nocmen's vote can easily move to Incognito since he's already voted for Incognito once. You therefore have Incognito in a very dangerous position. If Incognito gets lynched and turns out to be a townie? Yeah, your fault.

Nocmen, your unvote in your 69 begins to look a little bad. If you take this opportunity to lynch Incognito, I seriously think he should use his vig on you (assuming he has one). I strongly urge you to keep your vote on nobody for the moment. It's too early in the day for a lynch.

[Nocmen]

I am definitely keeping my vote where it is for now. Really I'm stuck in a circle with this game. Though, I love how you comment about how Incog shouldn't be at L-1, and yet if your vote really is on me as you claim, that would put me also at L-1.

[Incognito]

Incognito, you've now voted for everyone except me. You went out of your way to say that your first vote, on somestrangeflea, was not random. Care to talk about why it wasn't random?

I've mentioned previously that somestrangeflea's initial comments were noteworthy and so I placed a vote on him to generate discussion and maybe even some pressure if I did turn out to be right (about the distancing I mentioned early on). At the time, it seemed like a good place to begin conversation and eventually gauge reactions. It seems like my reasons for doing so were eventually overshadowed by the mod's comments and so the discussion and reactions that

could

have been generated from my vote on somestrangeflea were somewhat lost.

My subsequent votes on Flameaxe and now Nocmen are justifiable, imo. My vote on Flameaxe was placed to bring him out of lurking and now my vote on Nocmen is justified by my reasoning that I've outlined in one of my previous posts about scum pairs. Also noteworthy about Nocmen is his sudden shift in position of his scum pairings. Before, he stated that Flameaxe and I were "blatantly distancing", and I mentioned previously that I saw that as his attempt to link me with his own scum partner. More recently, he moved SSF to his number 2 spot and shifted Flameaxe down to his number three.

Now that somestrangeflea has placed me at L-1 for reasons that he classified as "not very strong" when Nocmen has pretty clearly stated that he believes I am one of the scum and could therefore hammer me, SSF has got me questioning his alignment as well.

[Jester]

I am definitely keeping my vote where it is for now. Really I'm stuck in a circle with this game. Though, I love how you comment about how Incog shouldn't be at L-1, and yet if your vote really is on me as you claim, that would put me also at L-1.

I invite you (and the

mod

, for that matter) to look at my post 21. I was and am the first vote on you.

[Khelvaster]

Fixed Votecount

It will take 3 votes to lynch with 5 people alive

Somestrangeflea(2)--Incognito
Flameaxe(1)--Somestrangeflea
Incognito(1)---Flameaxe
Nocmen(1)--Jester

[Incognito]

Jeeze, Khelvaster! This is the vote count:

Nocmen (2) -- Jester, Incognito
Incognito (2) -- Flameaxe, somestrangeflea

Not voting -- Nocmen

[somestrangeflea]

SSF, the numbers are not all that I see persay, but they are what I see as you trying to put scum blame on someone else.

The numbers are bullshit. Whilst being statistically accurate, they can be applied to any two players in the game (excluding me, of course, as they are written from a Fleatown perspective).

Jester agrees with the stuff below the numbers, but not the numbers themselves.
Nocmen directly challenges the numbers, but finds them WIFOMy rather than wrong.
Flameaxe and Incognito, the people who the numbers were directly trying to incriminate, don't even notice. Then again, Flameaxe only posted to ask for a VC...

But no-one noticed that 83.33...% doesn't matter. Funny that.

So who are the scum?

The mute, the under-overthinker, the man who misses the point, or the man who's right for the wrong reasons?

Incognito's lack of crap-case defence confuses me. Both scum and town should be defending themselves against craplogic, but he hasn't. I was also thinking of voting him for inconsistencies regarding his playstyle. Firstly he was overthinking, and now he can't see crap in front of him? But again, both town or scum could be doing this.

Flameaxe has been fairly quiet after his encounter with Incognito. He could be scum flying under the radar. I see no real reason for him not to be posting content, he's plenty active. He asked for a votecount only 2 days ago. I'm suspcious, but that's not who I'm going to vote for.

I'm not pleased with the way Jester's been trying to take my vote. Trying to guilt-trip me for the possibility of someone else's mislynch seems like scum who could be trying to push a timid player in the direction they want. I dislike this.

Nocmen. He claimed that my numbers were WIFOMy, so he clearly read them, but he didn't point out that they were wrong. He knew the numbers were off somehow. He was right for all the wrong reasons. Thing is, when you know exactly who's who, it's very easy to be right for the wrong reasons regarding everyone else. Very, very easy...

Unvote

It's too early in the day for a lynch.

Vengeful games are fast. Open 49, six pages, 2 days. Open 26, six pages, abandoned D1. Open 16, eight pages, 1 day. Open 15, seven pages, 2 days. Open 8, seven pages, 2 days. Open 7, eleven pages, 2 days.

Vo-

But let's wait until everyone chimes in before we get down to roping, shall we?

Mod: Flameaxe prod, plx.