The Most Logical Thing to Do on the First Day Is...

[Vraak X]

What's the most logical thing to do on the first day?

1) Run away from the thread and convince others to join you...
2) Accuse random people and hope you get the right one..
3) Go off on a no-lynch and pray that the Mafia doesn't get a successful kill
4) Hope some new guy or gal slips up and confesses to being Mafia
5) Other


What input do you have?

[jeep]

1 is bad for the game itself.
2 is closest to the right answer, but not quite.
3 is statistically shown to be wrong.
4 is no fun. Trust me.
5 yep...

You have to start making votes (work on non-posters because the mafia won't screw up if they never post... so you, as town, have to make not posting an error). Anything you can do to make discussion is good.

You analyze the reactions to those posts and use that information to find who you are looking for (mafia are looking for docs/cops/etc and the town are looking for mafia, obviously)

-JEEP

[Dasquian]

Basically what jeep said - a bit of (2) for a few pages, and by then there should be the opportunity to make something approaching a rational case. It won't be great, but you (as a town) will have to call it a day at some point long before doing a mass-claim, and should have a half-decent reason at least.

I generally think that cops coming out on day 1 with a guilty result is not only boring, but dangerous (because they don't know their sanity and are out in the open), and not actually tha helpful to the town (because the mafia likely cast adrift their unfortunate partner and avoid giving the town or cop any new leads).

[Dragon Slayer]

Tah dah! Most good players I know agree with Jeep:

You analyze the reactions to those posts and use that information to find who you are looking for (mafia are looking for docs/cops/etc and the town are looking for mafia, obviously)

[mathcam]

I mostly agree with JEEP, except for number 3. Very few cases have anything "shown" at all, and in at least some of those, no lynch

is

the correct solution. For example, if your game starts with one mafia, one SK, and 10 townies, and you wake up to day one with a townie and the mafia dead, that leaves the SK and 9 townies, in which case it is optimal play to not lynch.

Cam

[mathcam]

Most, DS? I'm curious as to which good players you think would disagree.

Cam

[Dasquian]

that leaves the SK and 9 townies, in which case it is optimal play to not lynch.

How do you figure that? I don't get it.

[mathcam]

I'm sure this is on the site in several places, so I'll give you the quick version. If there's one mafia and

two

townies, it's clear that you have to lynch, right? If there's one mafia and

three

townies, then no lynch is optimal strategy....lynching wrong loses you the game, and that happens 3/4 of the time. If you no lynch and let the mafia kill someone, then there's only a 2/3 chance of lynching wrong. Thus, no lynch is better than lynch.

And it's not hard to see that the argument alternates. If there's one mafia and an

even

number of players remaining, then lynching is better, and if there's one mafia and an

odd

number of players, then no lynch is better. Hence my statement above.

Cam

[Dasquian]

Ah, sure, the old odd/even. Somehow I got them mixed up

Wouldn't it be better to wait till you were down to 4 people before going no lynch, though? Then the SK's "free kill" is loaded with more information. OTOH, you have fewer people throughout the length of the game, so...

[mathcam]

Yeah, this is assuming random lynches, so you'd have to modify this somehow if you figured the players would get information from the kills. (But really, the SK

should

be killing at random anyway)

Cam

[cuban smoker]

bandwagon semi-randomly until you find an unbelievable claim.

[shadyforce]

1. Get everyone talking.
2. I said everyone, not most people.
3. Bandwagon someone for the stupidest reason, or good reason if the opportunity presents itself.
4. Look at what certain people say about the bandwagon, bandwagoner and bandwagonee.
5. More importantly, look at what certain people

aren't

saying about it/them.

[gslamm]

The most logical thing to do on the first day is blend in with the town, attacking those who appear scummy, and start deciding who your going to kill that night.

[jeep]

Sorry mathcam, I didn't include every case. I stick to my assertation that most fair setups need to have a lynch assuming ideal play. Now if the players know the set-up, then it can be analyzed, but if it's hidden as is normally the case nowadays, then you have to go with the lynch.

-JEEP

[CaptainBlicero]

5) Other

Drink a fifth of whiskey. Wait 10 minutes and then start typing. See what happens.

[cuban smoker]

Most fair setups, especially simpler ones, require a lynch on most days... agreeing with jeep

What I've become interested in is whether there is a town setup that could still be considered fair, but gained so much information from cops and other pro-town roles, that waiting might be benficial. But any game like this would be less like typical Mafia, and more like a logic puzzle.

[jeep]

Yes, we could certainly devise a setup like that, but it would almost certainly involve everyone knowing the set-up. Otherwise, how could people believe what was said?

-JEEP

[Dragon Phoenix]

The mole classic (Aka groza classic) is an example: 3 scum, 8 cops of varying known sanity, and a retired cop. It is beneficial to have a no-lynch to gather more info and determine sanities.

[jeep]

Of course, the optimal play is NOT to reveal investigations, as was done in Mini?2. As mafia I could have trounced the town with that horrible idea. The mafia have SO much more information, they can determine the useful cops and wipe them out and make claims that can indicate to the others that the dead cops were useless. I understand how, as town, you would want the information out there, but smart mafia will know the usefulness sooner. I don't think I ever wrote up my analysis of that because Quercitron was going to reuse the scenario and I might have played in it. It was a fun logic problem.

-JEEP

[Dragon Phoenix]

We had a lot of discussions on it in the recent GL game. The set-up was new to me, and it took some time to convince me that no-lynch was the right option.

[reinoe]

But the best thing townies should do is just fake their reads on D1 and let the PR's do their work at night.

[Espeonage]

Fuckign sdtop necro

[Alchemist21]

Did Reinoe just out himself as an alt? Look at the avatars. Lol

[chamber]

Dragon phoenix is an old respected member that Renoe stole the avatar of to troll.

[Psyche]

why
why
why
why