Makes sense, MoS.
Open 57 - Quack Mafia (Game Over) before 545
-
-
Disciple Slayer Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 353
- Joined: October 21, 2007
- Location: North Van
UNVOTE
VOTE: NO LYNCH
Makes sense, MoS.Show______
l.........l..........
l........[color=red]O[/color]..........
l........[color=red]/l\[/color].........
l........[color=red]/\[/color]......... /OUT on all my current games
l......................
===________-
-
Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- Posts: 7014
- Joined: June 19, 2007
-
-
Tarhalindur Mod Screw
- Mod Screw
- Mod Screw
- Posts: 3925
- Joined: June 7, 2007
- Location: Error 404: Location not found
This sounds right to me, but the correct strategy post-N1 needs to be altered in order to account for the fact that Quacks can't hit mafia.Mastermind of Sin wrote:Vote: Tarhalindur
I think we should no lynch today and circle "protect" to figure out who the quack doctors are. The mafia will have a few obstacles:
1) They can't kill anyone being protected by a real doctor.
2) If we only have 3 kills, all three of those people are confirmed protown, and it's possible that a mafia will be killed in the process
3) As a result of 2, the mafia will have to kill someone they are protecting to make it seem like there are 4 quack doctors. Then, we have the mafia split into two categories: 4 quack doctors (1 of which is mafia) and 8 sane doctors (2 of which are mafia). That's 1/4 and 2/8(1/4) chances of finding them, which of course is still the same as we already have, with a few exceptions. We can now guarantee the separations and hold the mafia to specific claims after day 1. Plus, with 3 of the 4 kills being randomly assigned, we've got a 3/11+3/10+3/9 chance of hitting at least 1 mafia during night 1, which is a 90% chance of eliminating scum on the first night. That's pretty good odds.
Unvote, Vote: No Lynch
If we circle-protect, then (depending on how many of the Quacks are preceded by Mafia in the player list) we will have somewhere between 1 and 4 NKs.
If there is 1 NK, then the best assumption is that all of the quacks hit Mafia and we lynch the player behind the lone kill, then reverse-circle protect the next night. 1 Quack will be revealed by the D2 lynch and the other two should be revealed by the next night's kills (also outing the two scum).
If there are 2 NKs, we lynch one of the two quack candidates (best assumption is that one is scum), and reverse circle-protect the next night (minus the confirmed quack, if applicable). I think that the numbers are enough for a good endgame for town, but I haven't run them fully.
If there are 3 NK's, we lynch one of the quack candidates (or a confirmed scum) and I'm not totally sure what to do the next night (I *think* that we reverse circle protect N2, but I am not sure).
If there are 4 NK's, then we have one group with 3 town and 1 scum and one group with 2 town and 2 scum, leaving us in a lylo
I think that the easiest way to sort out the circle protect is by player listing: each player should protect the player directly above themself on the player list.
Unvote, Vote: No LynchUser out of ambit.
Error 404: Sanity Not Found-
-
Crub Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1442
- Joined: June 23, 2007
- Location: Perth, Australia (GMT+8)
-
-
Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- Posts: 7014
- Joined: June 19, 2007
-
-
vollkan The Interrogator
- The Interrogator
- The Interrogator
- Posts: 5373
- Joined: March 29, 2007
- Location: Australia
-
-
Lulubelle Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 191
- Joined: October 15, 2007
-
-
thedragonsprincess Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 151
- Joined: April 19, 2007
- Location: mentor, oh
-
-
vollkan The Interrogator
- The Interrogator
- The Interrogator
- Posts: 5373
- Joined: March 29, 2007
- Location: Australia
-
-
Disciple Slayer Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 353
- Joined: October 21, 2007
- Location: North Van
Protecting TylerJ in advance.Show______
l.........l..........
l........[color=red]O[/color]..........
l........[color=red]/l\[/color].........
l........[color=red]/\[/color]......... /OUT on all my current games
l......................
===________-
-
shaft.ed dem.agogue
- dem.agogue
- dem.agogue
- Posts: 4998
- Joined: August 15, 2007
- Location: St. Louis
-
-
Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- Posts: 7014
- Joined: June 19, 2007
-
-
Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- Posts: 7014
- Joined: June 19, 2007
-
-
shaft.ed dem.agogue
- dem.agogue
- dem.agogue
- Posts: 4998
- Joined: August 15, 2007
- Location: St. Louis
-
-
shaft.ed dem.agogue
- dem.agogue
- dem.agogue
- Posts: 4998
- Joined: August 15, 2007
- Location: St. Louis
-
-
Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- Posts: 7014
- Joined: June 19, 2007
-
-
LutenitPowwel Townie
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 53
- Joined: December 8, 2007
Vote=Oman
Everyone is bandwagoning on him on 56, I DONT SEE WHY WE CANT DO IN NOW!!!!!
*BZZRT*
What? Where am I? Im infront of my computer...
Unvotei guess...
Vote:Lulubelle
Because she reminds me of my friend that I had to euthinize in a fire just because GLaDOS told me to.I wish, I wish, I wish I had a signature.-
-
Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- Posts: 7014
- Joined: June 19, 2007
-
-
vollkan The Interrogator
- The Interrogator
- The Interrogator
- Posts: 5373
- Joined: March 29, 2007
- Location: Australia
-
-
thedragonsprincess Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 151
- Joined: April 19, 2007
- Location: mentor, oh
-
-
Crub Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1442
- Joined: June 23, 2007
- Location: Perth, Australia (GMT+8)
What a friendly town this is! You all gather around and agree that you love each other so much that you're better of not lynching anyone today.
Final Vote Count:
No Lynch (7):Mastermind of Sin, Disciple Slayer, Tarhalindur, Oman, vollkan, Lulubelle, thedragonsprincess
Oman (2):fictiondepartment, Phate
It is now Night 1. Day 2 will dawn a bit over 72 hours from this post or as soon as all night choices are in.Moo?-
-
Crub Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1442
- Joined: June 23, 2007
- Location: Perth, Australia (GMT+8)
-
-
Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- Posts: 7014
- Joined: June 19, 2007
-
-
Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
- Cassandra Complex
- Cassandra Complex
- Posts: 15163
- Joined: October 30, 2004
- Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter
Who targetted those three? Please claim it now.
You guys are such idiots. Why in hell's blazing inferno did you vote no lynch after poking a gigantic hole in my breaking strategy? Quack docs being unable to kill mafia completely makes that strategy useless, and you idiots ended the day anyways. WTF!?FoS: people that voted No lynch after that was pointed outPermanent V/LA.-
-
Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- NK Immune Miller Vig
- Posts: 7014
- Joined: June 19, 2007
Copyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.