Large Normal 200 - Big Round Numbers - Game Over

[rb]

If Creature is scum we're fucked

[rb]

I think he's not scum though

[Gamma Emerald]

Scum have daychat, Pine can fuck off

VOTE: Pine

A grudge vote that's what

It's a fair Cop.

Dayvig Gin

DIE SUCKA

did you just dayvig the cop

[Gamma Emerald]

> Creature
> Gamma Emerald
> drealmerz

Well this is awkward

WHY

[Gamma Emerald]

> Creature
> Gamma Emerald
> drealmerz

Well this is awkward

What's awkward?

[ONGOING GAME] where I antagonized people, especially drealmerz

OH MY GOD STFU WRAITH YOU IDIOT

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm just waiting for Grey to get in here so that the real entertainment can start.
This party don't start without fuckin Grey around.

THAT'S MY BOY!



Sorry Creats, you're gonna have to contribute as your scum tell is literally flaking as scum.

VOTE: Creature

How do you know this

[Gamma Emerald]

TheRealGin-N-Tonic, there is something I'm failing to understand to do with your current actions in the round. You have voted to lynch Pine, which is all well and done, at this point in the game, 99% of the votes, won't have any ulterior motive behind them whatsoever, which is fine, if you don't have any main reason to be voting for Pine. However, you have currently created a contradiction, when trying to prove that your vote on Pine is legit, and has reasoning. The main problem with it, is as below:

It might be one-sided on Pine's side considering he's only made one post showing he's online but stopped saying anything afterwards, however on my end, to give you context to the vote, I recently played a game as an IC and Pine had day talk as scum and manipulated me throughout the game till I sided with him in LyLo and lost the game for town and said I'd vote Pine every game we play together that has daytalk.

I'd love to be able to tell mods in advance what roles to give Pine and I but the likelihood of me playing a game with Pine and I on opposite factions to set up a grudge vote scum theatre just for this game IF we both happened to roll scum would be a god like miracle. However, as much as I wish that was actually true, it is literally a close to impossible scenario, ergo the most logical conclusion is to not treat it as such and wait for more substance throughout the thread before you think you honestly caught 2/X scums when you're already wrong about at least 1 of them.

You are claiming that it is very unlikely, for both you and Pine to both be scum in the same game, however the roles are chosen randomly, and I believe in a random order. So just for the sake of it, lets say we had 10 towns in this game, and 9 scum, it is unlikely but go with it. If Pine was first to get a role, then you, there'd still be a high chance of you both being scum:
For Pine to be Scum: 9/19
If Pine is Scum, For Gin to be scum: 8/18
Therefore, For both to be Scum: Roughly 21/100

So it wouldn't be a 'god like miracle', ever.

Also another thing, when voting for somebody, you might thing they are suspicious or whatever. Therefore I have a question for you. If you are wanting to vote Pine, and argue for the vote on Pine, why are you suggesting he might not be scum via the 'when you're already wrong about at least 1 of them'???

UNVOTE: Alisae
VOTE: TheRealGin-N-Tonic

WHAT
10:9 never exists

[Gamma Emerald]

plz explain how you can assume 10:9 ever

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm not too sure of all of the factions within this game, but he appears not to be Scum or Town at the moment, due to the fact he is starting to pry for information, but not too much information, or too important of said information. If there isn't any other factions than Scum or Town, I think he is more likely to be town, but of course that is subject to change if it is necessary,

yeah Debi feels like scum for the 3p spec on PAGE 4. There can only be SKs in normals. Feels like a scum copout.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

I'm just waiting for Grey to get in here so that the real entertainment can start.
This party don't start without fuckin Grey around.

THAT'S MY BOY!



Sorry Creats, you're gonna have to contribute as your scum tell is literally flaking as scum.

VOTE: Creature

How do you know this

Keep reading

[Gamma Emerald]

Also no I am not an alt, I used to do mafia a lot of another forum is all, new things here such as what OMGUS or WIFOM have been explained to me via Wiki or other sources. This is my first time on this forum.

Creature if it was A ratio of Town:Scum:Other it would probably be 7:6:6:
So it would be:
For pine to be scum: 6/19
If Pine is Scum, For Gin to be Scum: 5/18
For both it is roughly 1/11:
Meaning there is a 1/11 chance they are both Scum, but of course it is just a hypothesis.

PS: Genuinely not an alt, you can ask for my IP if you need some evidence.
PSS: Alisae is a Steam friend

I think I may know who you are.
There was an idiot in an offsite game who thought a 48 player game had the alignments split 16:16:16 (it was confirmed multiball). Sounds like you.

[-Grey-]

Damn, Gamma.

[Gamma Emerald]

Ircher why don't you attempt to ask where he has played instead of trying to get a sense of what his normalcy is?

This feels like town

[Gamma Emerald]

You, know what, given the present info, Debi is obvtown now. She would not have stated 9 scum if she knew how many scum there were.
Hooray for derptown.

[Gamma Emerald]

If its OK, can I have your reason as to why you switched to Creature? It is easily interpretable that you changed vote afterwards to try and get rid of suspicions. I'd just like proof that this isn't the case.

Okay, I'll just lurk

through all the first 3 days so scum won't kill me early. Hopefully scum are lynched meanwhile.

Counting the ones I played somewhat relevantly:

Micro 597: Went super aggressive but didn't try to look like I was solving anything
Mini 1787: Showed obvious scum motivation
Newbie 1703:

Lurked, been called lurker lot of times

Open 643:

Lurked and eventually flaked out

Micro 619:

Lurked and coasted

Wake's Role Madness:

Lurked and coasted

The Walking Dead:

Lurked a lot

, my other hydra head had to do the most
Micro 647: Was actually towny there, but still lurked a bit

Likely all very different from my townplay

He also lurked in the Hungergames which is where this quote came from in the scum chat.

Also lurked out of Death Note.

[Gamma Emerald]

Gin is probtown for pointing that out

[Gamma Emerald]

They're trying to fake a townslip. I wanna see who's gonna try to fake a townslip next.

Hey if my role pm is green which side am I on?

I agree. Assuming 9 scum right off the bat implies foreknowledge of the setup, which in this case means scum. It's also such an absurd ratio that it would have to mean multiball.

Vote: Debi

Mmm that's a g00d VOTE right there
right there
if I do say so myself (i do say)

Lol Debi, You don't get the context as to why it's actually a god like miracle and because you opened to the door to the maths, let's do it. (I'll also go over your other concerns but let me have some fun here)

Spoiler: Maths for the fuck of it

I have two completed games under my belt and then this one I'm playing. So far out of all 3 of them, Pine has been them all.

Now the first game was the HungerGames Round 2 and that contained 17 players and there was 4 evil roles so we start out as me landing scum with a 4/17 chance. Now we multiply that by the Pine having the slot of scum as well so it's 3/16. Let us not forget that Pine also replaced in to a scum slot so that's a 3/16 chance he had the chance of replacing in to a scum slot and join me with day talk which is a 1/2 chance of being included.

Next, we move onto a game we just had where we had 5/8 townies and that was my chance of landing townie and 3/7 chance for Pine to land scum that game and again, 1/2 chance of having a game together with day talk.

Finally, this is where we do a little assuming here but I doubt the maths change would be astronomical. We assume a 4:1 ratio of scum meaning we have 5 scums this game, Now by the way the PM was worded, I'm going to go under the premise of a 5 man scum game meaning there would be a 5/19 chance I roll scum and for Pine a 4/18 chance he's scum.

After multiplying by 100 to give us percent, we get

0.006475749% chance that all of this has occurred so Pine and I could use that as scum theatre.

Nice, using Pine's alignment in your previous games as basis for you 2 not being scum together. That's great logic there

Btw, did anyone check the forums Debi linked to see if their games are usually 10v9?

Seems irrelevant. Looks like 10 and 9 are numbers picked because there are 2 factions and Debi split the players in half. There's no way any site would be running 10town:9scum, that's D1 LyLo.

I'm not making any arguements against anyone because quite frankly I'm not attempting to push for a specific lynch at the moment.

Okay so if you're not pushing a lynch why are you voting Creature? This doesn't look RVS

Good points Pine!
VOTE: Creature

VOTE: Alisae

FoS:Wraith

I agree. Assuming 9 scum right off the bat implies foreknowledge of the setup, which in this case means scum. It's also such an absurd ratio that it would have to mean multiball.

Vote: Debi

Mmm that's a g00d VOTE right there
right there
if I do say so myself (i do say)

VOTE: Alisae

FoS:Wraith

Sarcasm in the first bit?

[Gamma Emerald]

I mean you have a 0.006475% chance of being right and you're not going to get lucky.

You're still saying it's a chance tho
Not a chance I believe in, but a chance.

I laughed IRL seeing this

[Gamma Emerald]

Voting Creature because I disliked how he immediately assumed singleball and I hate how he immediately assumed scum theatre between Pine and Gin

Game has to leave RVS sometime. I don't think he's right about scum theatre but that doesn't make him scum. You don't think it's possible that Pine and Gin

could

be theatering?

Side note, excited about the table gathered for this game

Did you even bother to read the maths involved? Not only was it math but it was also telling a narrative that explains exactly how that shit wasn't scum theatre.


I mean you have a 0.006475% chance of being right and you're not going to get lucky.

Also RVS left a long time ago, don't know where you've been.

The problem with your math, and any probability math done after the fact, is that it's irrelevant. Ever hear the phrase "Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome?" It's like arguing that because you've gotten heads six times in a row that the odds of getting another is 1/128. Nope. Still 50%.

Just say Gambler's Fallacy.

[Gamma Emerald]

Quick reads by page eight:
Wraith scum
Debi, Gin town
Ali towny

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Pine get in this thread, you're the only EMT I know and Gamma needs a serious blood transfusion for how much town he's bleeding.

[-Grey-]

Cooorrrrrny.

[Pine]

Pine get in this thread, you're the only EMT I know and Gamma needs a serious blood transfusion for how much town he's bleeding.

Trying to catch up. I should have a wallpost up this evening some time. A few hours, maybe? Reading a page or two in between daily stuff.

[Wraith]

Didn't you hear? Walls are for noobs!

[Pine]

Yeah yeah, I know, I'll try to be concise.