Newbie 1768: Party Mafia - Game over!

[GuiltyLion]

No. EL seems awfully obsessed with talking about you and busses there.

also, Titus, are you seriously implying that EL and I are partners because EL said she didn't want to "throw me under the bus"? A scum!EL partnered with scum!GL would never slip that way, she used a word without knowing the context/meaning on MafiaScum. Pushing that as an associative is bs of the foulest degree.

[GuiltyLion]

Post coming soon

I'm waiting for this. You haven't posted anything of substance in nearly a week.

[JaeReed]

At this stage I'm not exactly happy with any of the people who've gotten votes so far.

If I have to choose I guess it's a Revan lynch, but I don't actually think it will flip scum.

GL, 307 thoughts on this? There's too strong of a conviction there I think for newbscum. It's possible he's powerscumming but I don't know how likely that actually is.

[GuiltyLion]

regardless of his alignment, I think Revan has experience elsewhere, I don't think a pure mafia newbie would open in the game the way he did. and I see scum pull the "you'll know I'm town when he flips red" logic all the time

[nancy]

I'm still not completely convinced of Lemon's scumminess and I've never had a townread on bowdown or revan so I'd consider following a wagon thete.

[JaeReed]

VOTE: Revan

Fair enough. I thought he probably had offsite experience with his entrance too, but then disregarded it for how sloppy the pushes on Titus/bowdown/myself were.

At the very least I'm better with this than anything else we have on the table so far.

bowdown is a paranoia read for me because of the way he's been sorta guiding opinions, but lynching off paranoia alone is dumb and more often than not just hits town. Besides which the only teams I can reasonably see with bowdown are either GL or Titus. I don't really think bowdown vs revan was TvT either but it's harder to explain that one. Just want to leave a trail in case I get fearkilled.

[JaeReed]

I'm here, just haven't found the time to make a post. I'm gonna start rereading now

Post coming soon

Also in D2 make sure this slot posts good content. If he doesn't, lynch him, because it's possible he's just coasting off the early towncred he got from his posts.

Usually mods would have replaced a slot like this by now. I've seen it happen before that mods are hesitant to replace someone doing this kind of thing because the person is mafia and strategically lurking (an example is Newbie 1705 where Equinox didn't want to replace someone blatantly prod dodging because it's a strategic move as mafia, and more recently in Newbie 1760 thenameipicked wasn't force replaced as mafia either, though he was just straight up absent).

That said, as far as the mod meta, don't put as much stock in to that. I don't know what Cakey is like as far as his replacement policies and there's no rule in his ruleset forbidding prod dodges from what I can see, so it's also just possibly a moot point.

[tojam2]

I'm here, just haven't found the time to make a post. I'm gonna start rereading now

Post coming soon

Also in D2 make sure this slot posts good content. If he doesn't, lynch him, because it's possible he's just coasting off the early towncred he got from his posts.

Usually mods would have replaced a slot like this by now. I've seen it happen before that mods are hesitant to replace someone doing this kind of thing because the person is mafia and strategically lurking (an example is Newbie 1705 where Equinox didn't want to replace someone blatantly prod dodging because it's a strategic move as mafia, and more recently in Newbie 1760 thenameipicked wasn't force replaced as mafia either, though he was just straight up absent).

That said, as far as the mod meta, don't put as much stock in to that. I don't know what Cakey is like as far as his replacement policies and there's no rule in his ruleset forbidding prod dodges from what I can see, so it's also just possibly a moot point.

Interesting.

[Agent Sparkles]

Sorry for the delay, it's a combination of bad timing in joining this game and my own poor time management. Also, the game has gotten way longer and more convoluted since I went inactive, so making the same kind of meaningful posts on the fly is near impossible when I'm not caught up.

Anyway, here's the post you've all been expecting. I'm going to focus my scumreads or semi-scumreads for now.

Spoiler:

Eccentric is someone I would keep an eye on. I think we've already established that some of her posts could be newbie fumbles, but with the exception of nancy's 180 (and even that was playing both sides of the argument), most of the TR arguments for her (mainly to revan and jae) haven't done much to persuade that these posts are a sign that she's town. Though this is oversimplifying a bit, there seems to be an argument of "she's probably acting like paranoid scum because she's newbtown" when I've mostly been getting more general newbie vibes for the same reasons, and occasionally slightly scummy ones (like the sudden paranoia early on, and the fact that her vote is still on tojam even though no one has challenged his claim). This read is probably the weakest of the three, so I would keep her alive as a future lynch target.

Titus also makes me feel uneasy. Say what you want about not worrying about yourself as a townie, but when Titus is being suspected she seems to dismiss it altogether (most notably when Revan pushed on her). As a townie, you should at least want to address people's problems when they prompt you to, for the sake of helping the game move forward. Ignoring people altogether is detrimental to town and could be a way of avoiding the issue or an excuse to use the "town playstyle" argument. To a lesser degree, I also don't like how focused she's been on tunneling lemon since page 11, with how little her posts have given besides that.

And then Revan. His reasoning seems pretty shallow and at times irrational. Just like I questioned tojam because his first townread was based on "furthering discussion," Revan claims a similar read on me in 154. His case on Jae is very flawed, acting sure that Jae's comment on being scum in two "completed games" is them slipping, which is really a stretch. As a normal statement, what Jae said made perfect sense, but as a slip, it's a really obvious goof-up that even new players shoud notice before sending, much less an IC. Later, he accuses them of using basic, surface-level thinking, which is exactly what he'd been doing most of the time.

My vote will likely go to one of these three. I'll elaborate on my other current reads as well, but it's super late here, so I'll give you a list for now:

Tojam: Essentially ConfTown
JaeReed- Leaning Town
GuiltyLion- Nulltown
Bowdown- Possibly nulltown, will have to reread him a bit more
Nancy- Neutral

[Revan]

If I was town/scum reading Titus I would have no reason to do a reaction test.

I'll lynch GL if none of you will lynch Jae.

[Agent Sparkles]

Question: Do scum get to directly communicate with each other?

[bowdown]

@GL how would my Titus scumread still be genuine? That makes no sense. I figured the best way to get a reaction is to call them out as "obviously scum" to get them panicked that they got caught so easily.

I don't buy this. I don't believe that you would be town with no read on Titus who makes that first post calling Titus "obviously scum". The fact that you're trying to walkback the declared scumread looks fake, like you wanted to come out swinging for towncred and then felt the need to invent a reason afterwards to explain why you were aggressive initially and then backing off afterwards.

Town doing a reaction gambit as you're describing would still have a legitimate scumread on Titus driving their post, but you posted 269 as if you never had a read to begin with. But even in the last sentence here you're now suggesting that you had some level of suspicion on Titus, but that's not what you said in 269.

GL, I disagree with you on pretty much everything here. See 331. Town could have a legit scumread, but also could have a null read like Revan claims.

[bowdown]

Something that I think is lost in the conversation about Lemon is that Lemon is new. I think I am the only one of the noobs with prior forum mafia/werewolf experience. Nobody else came out super awkward - some of us (myself included, Jae, maybe someone else?) are somewhat giving lemon a pass on that initial awkwardness because she's new, but it makes a lot of sense that noob-mafia would be super nervous at the start of the game. No other noobs were like that.

Jae, you even gave sparkles town cred for not sounding sketchy in their entrance:

So there's a reason I asked Sparkles about experience.

Imagine this is your first game and you drew scum. Do you spam the thread like this, or do you carefully craft your first post while being shit scared of saying the wrong thing?

GL and I jumped on this earlier and I kinda just gave lemon an "okay you're new, show me how you can hunt" pass. Her hunting has been...Okay? Most of it boils down to "Titus isn't posting in depth posts so is scummy". Even so there is still a preoccupation with votes on her and people's scumread of her - 318 with just two votes on her?

Not super confident, but I'm comfortable enough with lynching Lemon.

VOTE: EccentricLemon

[JaeReed]

Question: Do scum get to directly communicate with each other?

Usually during pre-game and night phases in the newbie queue. Not during the Day phase.

[Revan]

VOTE: EL

I don't want EL in LYLO anyway

[bowdown]

Lemon is at L-1

[bowdown]

Revan why are you voting lemon?

[bowdown]

I actually hate that you're on lemon.

My analysis can be simple because a lot of the people in this game are easy to read, except Titus and GuiltyLion.

You've said you townread lemon, you have defended lemon, you have never once said that lemon is scummy, and this certainly isn't a self-save.

VOTE: Revan

[Revan]

It is a self save, though.

[bowdown]

You had two votes on you. Town-Revan says "there still are three days left I should try to convince people to vote my biggest scumread Jae/Titus" - you're not the only one that has neutral/scummy reads on those two. Town-Revan does not "self save" onto one of his townread with two out of five votes on him.

[EccentricLemon]

VOTE: EL

I don't want EL in LYLO anyway

I've been feeling sympathetic toward Revan because he seems confused to me and is just trying to scumhunt ineffectively, but some of his later posts have been making me uneasy. It seems to me at this point that he's sheeping the experienced players to get town points, exhibit one ^.

I think EL is too townread to be lynched today.

Especially considering that this was posted not too long before he voted for me, it's starting to seem like he's trying too hard to appear town.

Something that I think is lost in the conversation about Lemon is that Lemon is new. I think I am the only one of the noobs with prior forum mafia/werewolf experience.

nancy had a post about her experience in forum mafia and werewolf, and there is speculation about Revan having prior experience, but he isn't exactly acting calm and composed. I've already quoted nancy's post and I have brought it up more than once I think. This is also blatantly ignoring the fact that as a complete and utter newb to forum mafia, I was being voted up super early on D1.

Let me explain what I didn't like about tojam's claim. He claimed one-shot town without much provocation. If he isn't scum, now scum knows to avoid him because he won't die the first time they attack him. Plus, now they have more clues about what other townies are in the game. It doesn't make sense to reveal this early in the game, much less give the scum that much information, which is why I didn't think it was genuine.
Now that I think about it, no one else has been trying to run him up, which makes me think no one else is the one shot town, so I'll unvote for now.

But I'd still like to point out that according to Cakez' matrix, there isn't necessarily a bulletproof town in the game at all.

UNVOTE: tojam2

Titus completely ignored my question about whether she expected a newb town to act in a different way than I did the first time I was being voted up, by the way, and I'd like an answer to that.

[Revan]

Sheeping the experienced players? I don't think you can say that if my top scumread is the IC.

[EccentricLemon]

So then why the sudden turnaround?

[SirCakez]

I'm here, just haven't found the time to make a post. I'm gonna start rereading now

Post coming soon

Also in D2 make sure this slot posts good content. If he doesn't, lynch him, because it's possible he's just coasting off the early towncred he got from his posts.

Usually mods would have replaced a slot like this by now. I've seen it happen before that mods are hesitant to replace someone doing this kind of thing because the person is mafia and strategically lurking (an example is Newbie 1705 where Equinox didn't want to replace someone blatantly prod dodging because it's a strategic move as mafia, and more recently in Newbie 1760 thenameipicked wasn't force replaced as mafia either, though he was just straight up absent).

That said, as far as the mod meta, don't put as much stock in to that. I don't know what Cakey is like as far as his replacement policies and there's no rule in his ruleset forbidding prod dodges from what I can see, so it's also just possibly a moot point.

I don't replace anyone unless they run out a prod timer or get three prods. Just how I've always done it.

[SirCakez]

bump