DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Cephrir]

VOTE: SAD

[Cephrir]

I do think there's a wealth of information in the thread and we would probably be remiss to lynch and get more things to talk about without fully processing it all.

pedit shhhh im posting

[Cephrir]

because of his posts being town

3048 is a great post

[Cephrir]

Well, I disagree with VCA in the sense of LOOK WHERE THESE VOTES MOVED. The real information to be had is in how and why the votes moved, and I'm not even sure why this seems so particularly powerful a day wrt that to me but it does.

[Cephrir]

Fate's death might suggest an older player, but it also doesn't suggest the people associated with him to me, unless they're secretly taking the game super seriously.

[Cephrir]

Funnily enough I'm a hardcore busser as scum but w/e I think too many people towned themselves or were towned based on previous day and pregame so I don't see us losing even with my mislybch.

well sure maybe but knowing you were 90% destined for nuking tomorrow could change that yeah?

[Cephrir]

not actually sure why i bothered posting that.

[Cephrir]

Post 2 is valid though isn't it?
Couldn't Nahdia just target herself every night?
If she's scum it would genuinely be a waste of time for GiF to have investigated her either way.

Well, it was pointed out that the Fighter could stop that.

[Cephrir]

Because she knows her team didn't draw cop and she doesn't want to be investigated.

Counterintelligence is such a weak role for town that it would definitely counterclaim.

[Cephrir]

Because she knows her team didn't draw cop and she doesn't want to be investigated.

Counterintelligence is such a weak role for town that it would definitely counterclaim.

If someone would that'd be great.

I'm not entirely convinced that all the roles were taken tho given that our source for that particular bit of info is...mastin.

I don't see the incentive to lie about it.

[Cephrir]

you certainly ignored the actual point of that post

[Cephrir]

cheet layin down the real questions.

[Cephrir]

gif has been town the whole game and i don't understand your vendetta with him.

[Cephrir]

FFS you guys were supposed to have lynched someone while I was gone. Now I have to read a bunch of nonsense.

^By the way.
Justsayin'.

All of Zito's posts around here are pure scumposting.

Thought I'd let you know.

they aren't

[Cephrir]

Firebringer not reevaluating his read on me after proving his earlier reason for scum reading me wrong is a scum claim

In case anyone was wondering

im gonna be real with you

im not reading your argument and i don't give a fuck about it because there's too much meta

[Cephrir]

Ceph have you read his posts today?

Also I don't know why you felt the need to respond to me with that again when I believe my answer last time was "you don't have to care I'm nuking him anyway"

yeah fire's are mediocre equinox seems fine

i don't understand why you have such a hardon for this, cheet has good reasons for the read that i understand and agree with and you mostly just keep yelling about it and trying to convince them they're scum

im not saying you need to convince me in this setup but i dont think its reasonable to expect anyone to be convinced by your yelling about it at which point why bother?

[Cephrir]

fate nooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Couple of quick things, by the way.
One this is a bad post.
Two, Fate is exactly the kill Reck would make as the serial killer.

If Reck claims otherwise, he's a fucking liar.
Now granted.
Reck is not the

only

player here who would kill Fate as the terrorist.
In fact I'm pretty sure over half the damn playerlist (myself included) would kill Fate N1 as the terrorist.

But Reck is among that pool.
Though, again: not a current issue.

We're hunting scum, not the SK.
And speaking of scum...
VOTE: Red Coyote.

hello have you read my post touching on this today what do you think about it

[Cephrir]

I investigated Fate. He was not with Russians. Unfortunately, we all know that already.

When GiF flips scum with the cop, I am going to LORD this over you.
This is such a damn scumclaim of an investigation it's not even funny.

But oh well.

His time will come.

i think it's pretty much completely fine and strongly doubt that half the playerlist would make that kill

[Cephrir]

I'm kind of upset that mastina might be scum if SAD is scum.

Fortunately for you that's never happening!

are you reading anything at all or just blindly re-spouting whatever reads you had yesterday

[Cephrir]

moi you forgot me :'(

[Cephrir]

we seem to like forgetting that this setup discourages bussing pre-nukes

[Cephrir]

i think you're overestimating here and severely

for example here is a list of players who would scare me more than fate if i were scum

1. SpyreX
4. MagnaofIllusion
8. Lady Lambdadelta
11. Cheetory6
13. xRECKONERx
16. GreyICE
17. Ser Arthur Dayne
19. hiplop
23. Spiffeh

[Cephrir]

13. xRECKONERx

im flattered but are you scared of your own shadow

maybe i am

[Cephrir]

Far from caught up but: mastin how do you know the scum even have the sabotage ability? That said mastin is likely town

Nukebringer for SK and it probably is that simple? I see scum has already nuked them.

[Cephrir]

pre-in to blow up firebringer

/in as nukebringer with Equinox

imma nuke your ass

I'm going to blow you up fb

and everyone better vote total war OR ELSE

why are you defending yourself before we even see a flip?

[Cephrir]

FOR TOTAL WAR [17] - SpyreX, MagnaofIllusion, Untrod Tripod, Nukebringer, McMenno, Papa Zito, Spiffeh, GuyInFreezer, Errantparabola, Nahdia, Fate, mastina, hiplop, Accountant, Ser Arthur Dayne, Something_Smart, GreyICE
AGAINST TOTAL WAR [4] - xRECKONERx, Ircher, Cephrir, RedCoyote
Not Voting [3] - Lady Lambdadelta, Toogeloo, Cheetory6

^By the way, I still hold we had at least one scum vote against total war.

The reason I don't think it's Reckoner is because it took guts to do that: denying the game total war painted a target on his back.
While Reck's certainly a bold enough scum player where he could get away with that (and people would indeed pay him little heed for it), it still struck me as something that was more likely to come from town than from scum.

Now Ircher and RedCoyote, on the other hand......
(Cephrir's exempt because he's town.)

We all knew this didn't matter, I don't see much point in reading into it.

I also don't see much point in trying to get anything from Spiffeh's scumlist. Try his actual posts and pushes. Scum craft those lists knowing they will be gone through with a fine toothed comb. I know I often fuck around with mine to foil any moron who thinks I'd feel compelled to evenly distribute my buddies.

[Cephrir]

Honestly, I kind of want to vote Ircher, because self voting is an "my best defense is I might as well die"

Even if this is a setup where you might as well give up if everyone wants you to die because sometime soon the nukes will come.

I have had a townread on him but it pretty much evaporated with that bizarre naked selfvote

[Cephrir]

Simply guaging how people would react. What were you expecting, there was only 3 votes on me; I was in no danger of being lynched.

slayer's gambit/10

[Cephrir]

Can someone spray paint my name on thier nuke?

Also, im sure its unlikely, but maybe possible:

I'm assuming because of the eavesdrops, that the scum made up a list of names for everyone. I'm wondering if its possible when they did so they kept them gender specific? (girl names for girls, boy names for boys)

that would be mind numbingly stupid

got anything to add that isnt about your role

[Cephrir]

Simply guaging how people would react. What were you expecting, there was only 3 votes on me; I was in no danger of being lynched.

And what did you get out of it?

Not much.

Your reaction was fine; you saw something odd and pressed it.

GreyICE's response kinda pinged me cuz if he considered the current wagon formation, I was nowhere near to being lynched and the considering only mastina is hard-pushing me, it feels out of place to call it a defensive move/me giving up. Not conclusive though, but still.....

if youre going to do a shitty reaction test at least stick with it for more than 5 posts. feels to me like you talked yourself out of it.

[Cephrir]

whelp.

Serial Killer took sub.

RIPlop?

[Cephrir]

We're running low on people I don't have any sort of townread on at all.

VOTE: Errantparabola certainly isn't among that rarefied group.

Please keep in mind that if all those nukes hit it will become 9 to lynch.

[Cephrir]

the sk sub is trippy it's like watching a nightkill decision in real time and HD

[Cephrir]

Reck zito nuke all flipping town.

[Cephrir]

These claims tho

[Cephrir]

Zito said he was nuking RC get with the bloody program

Yall should keep it in your pants for 5 minutes.

[Cephrir]

VOTE: McMenno

[Cephrir]

In hindsight, Spiffeh burying himself in a stupid meta argument so he wouldn't have to do anything else us a pretty obvious scum tactic

Still expect a town flip from nuke thx hippo too late now anyway though

I'll try going over his iso for real... at some pt

Pedia fucking hell mastin

[Cephrir]

VOTE: McMenno

Let's lynch this guy. I think he's Nukebringer's scumbuddy. That nuke recall was a w f u l.

Literally the only thing mcmenno has done that wasn't awful

[Cephrir]

Accountant is totally coasting. Might want to deal with them at some point.

I'm not coasting, you idiots are spamming the thread up with goddamn elmo gifs and making me not want to catch up. Normally I would tell everyone to shut up and push my scumreads, but they're all destined for imminent death anyways, either by nuke, lynch or nuke intent. Except McMenno. That's why I'm pushing him.

@Cephrir: You think Nukebringer is town? Seriously?

and what would you suggest is the reason they're still posting?

[Cephrir]

Hey now, I wasn't a nonentity until today.

Today things keep getting nuked before I talk about them and I don't see much point in talking about dead things.

[Cephrir]

Once McMenno and SpyreX are dead I can start going insane with having no idea who's scum so that's exciting

[Cephrir]

Well, would you expect him to just sit on his ability or use it on someone i assume he had been complaining about

not that im super sure or anything hes just never made me think he was town

[Cephrir]

you people and your analyzing lists like they aren't pointless drivel

i swear youll be the death of me

[Cephrir]

like that's the lazy way to look at what a dead scum did during the game. you're essentially taking his word that he wanted the people in his scumlist dead. look at what they actually goddamn posted. lists don't push anything or add pressure to anyone.

[Cephrir]

i should make a new account where this opinion is somehow my username

[Cephrir]

ha, scum wanted that stupid ass town block plan fuck you all i was right

[Cephrir]

i have read about 1/4 of this iso now

a) why the fuck did we nuke nukebringer
b) why the fuck did we nuke errant

[Cephrir]

I think the play here is to form a group of universally town read players and punish anyone that tries to nuke within that group with death

Cheet and Accountant are my most confident town reads that I'm willing to suggest for this "bloc" atm

Those of you who like accountant for scum can probably snicker at this post. I'm not really sure if he is or not and I'm relieved I don't have to have an opinion about it anymore? I guess the nuke could be recalled

Also literally no one is advocating for the town bloc to be compiled and set in stone this instant

It's inevitable that people are going to have town reads going into the nuke phase that they don't want to die

There's no reason we shouldn't group the largely agreed upon town reads together and promise death to anyone that goes after them

This is a game that can easily be PoE'd because of the killing power town has so idk why this is such an issue

scum have a lot of nukes, eh?

Something_Smart (-89%) - Post #26 really pinged as the scum thing to do. Yes, it's a self-meta statement, but also the fact that he justs plans to sheep whoever and not try to solve the game is even more indicative of scum. His posts in pages 16-20 continue to be bad and indicative of scum. Needs rope. Considering the possibility that this is a weaker player, but Smart seems to be above the "Newbie-feel" and more on par with prob. my own skill in mafia.

He is saying you are just going the sheep all your votes. SO it was a bit of a mis-rep from you.

That said he doesn't list anything about the rest of your activity, which is pretty good in my opinion (just read your iso)

You are both a little suspicious.

Wow this rivals S_S's first post for the title of worst post in the game

vaxkiller is town, eh? thx 4 telling me

VOTE: mcmenno

Is McMenno really your biggest scum read?

I expect better from you

no surprises here

My answer to "why would scum go for X role":

"To seem town"

"scum don't have any town sounding roles"

[Cephrir]

i am oversimplifying and i know that.

[Cephrir]

I'd vote UT to end this godforsaken day but I'm not entirely confident he's flipping scum

it's cool how this iso keeps reinforcing opinions i already have #notbiased

[Cephrir]

mastina's nuke was sabotaged. That was the terrorist's sub, which we all assumed was headed for GreyICE since at the time of launch there was a nuke headed for zito and I don't think Spyre had claimed yet.

...thats really weird

[Cephrir]

Well, glad that GI is town at least?
I think?

??

i mean he is but

?

[Cephrir]

So either the terrorist

1) Knew mastina's nuke would fail (heavily incriminates SpyreX)
2) Isn't paying attention to the thread at all

i feel like spyrex wouldn't be that stupid.

2) incriminates hiplop

[Cephrir]

3) The terrorist thought mastina would recall their nuke.

i don't think anyone other than mastina could have thought this

[Cephrir]

Ceph.
If you were reading mastin's posts, you would know that she has a plan.
Ok?

oooooooh ok phew

[Cephrir]

What happens if Accountant flips scum.
Do I get a cookie?

A whole batch. I will bake them myself and mail them to you.

[Cephrir]

Though if we're being honest, you probably want to negotiate me up to making STD bake them. He's a much better baker than I am.

[Cephrir]

I think it is pretty telling that mastin has been all “Scum would sabotage me if LLD is scum”, has that proven to have happened, and just dropped both LLD and Spyrex as scum.

hey, someone actually got something out of mastin's posts! good job.

[Cephrir]

Hey Cephir – remember Kids Mafia where I had fairly good reads on ALL the scum who weren’t Bro being a jackass but was ignored (aside from Trans who vigged them all) for my methods?

Yeah …

a broken clock is right twice a day.

i also assume you did more than just that.

[Cephrir]

"assume" -> "believe"

[Cephrir]

"I townread x because they did y game related thing"

kill me now

i'm trying

[Cephrir]

but cheet he had THREE SETS of scare quotes

[Cephrir]

yeah i cant believe you forced him to be a dick. so mean.

[Cephrir]

all im gonna say is if you go through with this you arent allowed to feel bad about your decision later.

[Cephrir]

I wish I had nukes every game so I could get rid of

katsuki

whoever was annoying me and then actually have fun.

[Cephrir]

oh

[Cephrir]

thank you for your service, major ircher

[Cephrir]

or did that get cancelled? i don't see it in the VC.

[Cephrir]

i see now why vaxkiller doesn't try to be useful most of the time.

anyway i guess i have a scum flip to analyze now????

[Cephrir]

i'm sorry, that was meaner than i meant it to be.

[Cephrir]

i can only assume they wanted that role out because.... the other scum have nukes maybe??

the fact that he didn't nuke the cop is very interesting

[Cephrir]

if they wanted you dead that badly reck, they wouldve just killed you?

[Cephrir]

I believe the Fighter has been on her up to this point? Or whatever the trackerish thing is

[Cephrir]

her = nahdia

[Cephrir]

Well, tits. I thought we had agreed that needed to happen.

[Cephrir]

On the subject of roles, it occurs to me that there are very few of us left who have not claimed yet and we should probably make sure we stay that way.

[Cephrir]

I can't get over seeing Counterintelligence as an incredibly stupid pick for scum. You can't hide your role in this game, and it's not exactly high utility anyway since you have to play whack a mole.

[Cephrir]

ircher seemed like he might go down anyways too (for reasons that escape me).

[Cephrir]

McMenno is on my shitlist because the nuke cancel could have been a big giant huge "lol look how not scummates we are" setup, thinking that McMenno would go first over Nukebringer.

kill the beast

cut its throat

spill its blood

etc

[Cephrir]

I'm way in favoring of justice killing Mastina irrespective of her alignment just to stop the noise

if we keep doing this we're gonna fuck ourselves over

[Cephrir]

We can just hope that people not reading like hiplop and SK kill all of scum for us?

well they're doing pretty well so far

[Cephrir]

im pretty sure fate is town and hiplop sure as shit didn't get lawyered last night come in and nuke his scumbuddy for no reason

why are we killing nahdia again???

[Cephrir]

Fate?

Yeah. The dead guy GIF investigated. I have a feeling nahdia didn't lawyer him.

[Cephrir]

yeah, mastin is probably someone i'm going to be forced to consider pretty soon due to lack of options

[Cephrir]

do you know what distancing is?

[Cephrir]

Actually, as long as someone nukes me tomorrow you can know any results you got are reliable once I flip american.

1 townies life is more important than one untamperable investigation. I guess some knucklehead will do it but I'm never consenting to this idea

[Cephrir]

Let me tell you how this goes

We clear LLD beyond a shadow of a doubt by using a fuck load of resources

We nuke Nahdia

LLD is night killed

We blow raspberries and talk about how stupid we were

I say I told you so

[Cephrir]

Novel idea: let's try scum hunting instead

[Cephrir]

Huh? I'm suggesting we not do any of that grey

[Cephrir]

Huh? I'm suggesting we not do any of that grey

I'm saying we can afford to do all of that because if the scum have to NK LLD they're not NKing someone with a better role. Plus they could double kill or whatever.

Everyone we don't have to lynch/nuke is super positive because we have such a huge advantage.

So let's not nuke Nahdia

Glad we had this talk

[Cephrir]

I've apparently gone from a #1 townread to scum because handwaving. Cool

[Cephrir]

Ok like I read 4663 and you literally sound like a crazy person. Are you RL trolling again? This makes no fucking sense.

[Cephrir]

*places gun in mouth*

[Cephrir]

Yes, I am largely ignoring you at this point. I often don't read your posts anymore. If I were scum, I'd probably at least scan them for my name and then feel good about myself if you called me town.

[Cephrir]

You're absurd.

[Cephrir]

let's play make your own mastin scumlist

here's mine



now ask me a question about it

go ahead

[Cephrir]

Well, Cephra, why are you townreading Accountant so hard?

Well, I've played with Accountant. Accountant behaves certain ways when he's scum, and he's just

not

doing that.

At all.

Based on my psychological profile of Accountant, there is no chance.

Absolutely zero chance.

That he would make posts like this as scum.
Could he be the terrorist?
Sure.
But there is no way he's group scum.

Just look at his posts. I can't ever see those posts coming from a scum mindset. They're just so. Transparently. Town.

OK, nope, I can't do it. I don't even have the energy to be a parody of you.

[Cephrir]

Did the thought cross your mind that if I were asked, given I am trying to come out of the troll part of the game, that maybe just maybe...I would.
Yknow.

Actually answer?

Have I asked you to explain a read since Xenogears? I probably haven't.

[Cephrir]

Did the thought cross your mind that if I were asked, given I am trying to come out of the troll part of the game, that maybe just maybe...I would.
Yknow.

Actually answer?

Have I asked you to explain a read since Xenogears? I probably haven't.

(Yes, I'm aware this probably isn't true; it may have taken me longer to learn this lesson than it should have.)

[Cephrir]

Ok, fair enough.

But definitely mass-claim tomorrow. And consider Magna as tomorrow's lynch in that case.

a) no
b) no

[Cephrir]

i just don't really think you're scum i guess so it doesn't bother me so much

[Cephrir]

i don't have a scumread on him

[Cephrir]

maybe

[Cephrir]

Not sure what to make of Ceohrir's recent reluctance.....

reluctance to blindly agree with you? gee, maybe i have my own thoughts.

[Cephrir]

i wish i had a nuke i could use every time someone refers to spiffeh's list

i should have taken a nuke just to remove vca from the game

[Cephrir]

sry my bad

[Cephrir]

Hey mastin?

Fuck you.

And the trend of obscene arrogance you represent.

[Cephrir]

I took doc. It's one of my favorite roles.

I'm usually pretty good at guessing scum kills. Surprised the scum tried to waste their kill. Go ahead and flame me if you want, but I can't undo it.

Pedit: The fuck you was more important.

[Cephrir]

{LLD, UT, mastin, Cheet}
{MOI, Grey, Nahdia}
{hiplop}
{Vax}
{SpyreX}

[Cephrir]

Cephrir, please request an avoidance of nuclear death if you are town.

What would that help? I'd rather have more time to post anything I think might be useful.

[Cephrir]

I took doc. It's one of my favorite roles. I'm usually pretty good at guessing scum kills. Surprised the scum tried to waste their kill. Go ahead and flame me if you want, but I can't undo it.

And my nuke is justified. Who did you protect N1? N2? N3?
None of that in here.
And this justification for not protecting GiF sucks ass too. If it's not scum.
It should be.

Who fucking cares? Cheet, GIF, Cheet. Yeah, I'm sure I didn't say that in your mind because it was just too darn hard to make up.

[Cephrir]

I figured they ran their kill into me N2 and wouldn't be eager to do it again. Sue me.

[Cephrir]

I like the part where you admit your nuke wasn't justified.

I wish I'd managed to die. I thought my request that Grey and MOI not claim was potentially too obvious, but I guess not.

[Cephrir]

I figured they ran their kill into me N2 and wouldn't be eager to do it again. Sue me.

What?

you can self target?

into me, as in, into my protection on GIF.

[Cephrir]

Cheet? Seriously?

Cheet!?

Why in God's name would scum aim for a fucking missile silo at this point in the game. My god. Ceph I like you but if you're town that was a serious miscalculation.

For being obvtown :/ I guess that's where I went wrong, I don't think about mechanical stuff.

What other role was so great that they'd be afraid of it? Missile Silo seems better than everything except cop and doc at this point does it not?

[Cephrir]

I would like to point out: if Cephrir flips at all, mastin is trash of the highest order.

[Cephrir]

I actually don't know what Cephrir's alignment here is

literally fuck off.

[Cephrir]

you all are too cavalier about the value of one town life. killing someone for information is usually stupid.

[Cephrir]

I made a terrible mistake, but to be honest, I'd probably do it again because I'm a piece of shit. Mastin's nuke without knowing this, was shit, even if she got somewhat lucky.

I might need to die. I want to make absolutely sure that's true before I do it.

[Cephrir]

Oh hey. I'm not dying, at least temporarily. Had a busy day, but I did set an alarm in case I forgot to come back and post final thoughts.

I'll catch up later.

[Cephrir]

Admittedly having read nothing I don't know why I'm not dying and there probably is still a plan to make me dead and that's cool. I appreciate the extra time all the same.

[Cephrir]

At the risk of ~pushing it~ it occurs to me to wonder why my suicide was presented as urgent when we knew ut was setting an alarm. I almost bought into that.

[Cephrir]

I have mad respect for the amount of effort you're putting into this but quite frankly I don't see any value in it, sorry.

You are too nice

[Cephrir]

Sorry Spy.
In a bad place.
mastin being full on fucking awful as fuck is making it worse and I should probably just commit to not playing mafia anymore.

Cheety I want you to know I have nothing but love and support for you.

[Cephrir]

I mean fuck it, right?

If you're town I get to call you worse than Mastin and that will be fun to watch you cry about.

And if you're scum, then great!

I really can't think of a way this could be true but I don't have much context.

[Cephrir]

LLD, we

can't

lynch Cheetory today. He's battleshipped; the battleship info specifically states it'll protect against a lynch as well if nothing else has come that slot's way.

Hahaha hahaha

Suck ittttttt

Mistakes feel good sometimes <_>

[Cephrir]

So you didn’t protect the claimed Cop N1? I mean you were clearly in the group that new mastin’s theory on GiF being a scum counter-claimer to SS was moronic so you had to feel GiF was Town. Yet you took a chance the Terrorist would hit there even if it was fucking minimal?

The terrorist didn't have any reason to want the cop dead at that time. The cop was actively beneficial to him.

[Cephrir]

Cephir really looks town to me.

How the fuck does this change in 4 pages of me not posting

[Cephrir]

I took doc. It's one of my favorite roles.

I'm usually pretty good at guessing scum kills. Surprised the scum tried to waste their kill. Go ahead and flame me if you want, but I can't undo it.

Pedit: The fuck you was more important.

Of course it raises eyebrows. But this seems believable to me, and he has been actively scum hunting all game.

Edit: well... here is something I found that MAY contradict my above beliefs.

See my eavesdrop post for details on eavesdrops
3243

__________________
is admiring sam possible
___________________

Could this eavessdrop be cephir saying

"Can I target myself with doc?"

I have been playing this game for ten fucking years.

I know doctors can't protect themselves and if I wasn't sure for some reason I would go check the fucking first post.

[Cephrir]

If hiplop doesn't stop his nuke, hes likely the SK. Other than that I still want LLD dead, with cephir being my second choice.

I still want to think more about the admiring comments from the scum.

I am just quoting this and not commenting because I'm already being somewhat toxic and there's no reason to compound it

[Cephrir]

Didn't lld say greyice was assuming the scum Nightkill was factional and that was weird? I see him assuming the opposite then realizing he was wrong and I'm pretty sure one person carrying it out IS normal.

[Cephrir]

Cheet don't

Shh

Don't be sad please

[Cephrir]

Vca is shit and the reason you're confused by what scum might be doing is because you're looking at worthless data

[Cephrir]

Have you ever been scum and said no I can't vote x because my scumbuddy did

Neither has anyone else

[Cephrir]

Thanks for your support

And yea i absolutely have done that ftr

oh sorry i assumed you were decent at playing scum

[Cephrir]

You know what, you're right.

Replace me out Andrius.

.

Thanks for playing, I enjoyed your presence.

Hit me up on skype sometime if you want???

[Cephrir]

Who types lmk instead of let me know? Am I crazy to think someone on the scum team is a phone poster?

everyone who uses the internet?

do people actually type in more abbreviation from their phones?

[Cephrir]

Same tbh

[Cephrir]

VOTE: spyre

[Cephrir]

Thanks god ... Sad to see Cheet go but the relief of Vi versus Kats is almost off the chart.

[Cephrir]

[Cephrir]

fuck now i want a new one to watch.

[Cephrir]

that seems rather unlikely.

[Cephrir]

I felt and still feel Cephrir MUST DIE for his actions is letting GIF die, and wanted to force a situation where if town Cephrir truly felt conviction in his Mastin stance, he'd swallow the pill, confirm himself as town, and watch Mastin die in a nuclear glow.

Sorry, but when did I call mastin scum other than pregame?

[Cephrir]

1a) Is anyone actually questioning Nahdia-Town?
1b) Is anyone thinking of questioning Nahdia-Town in the future?
2) Why is UT not scum? Like seriously the Mastin nuke was super-opportunistic.
3) For SpyreX: Why, as Town, would you ever use your role? Even if it is on Mastin.
4) Does anyone other than GreyICE have a read to share on Moai?
5) What about Cephrir? Is it decided that he's Town after all...?
6) For LLD: Why haven't you been on about the scum codes?
7) Why did Fate die?

1a) No
1b) Maybe
2) For being the counterwagon to SS mostly
4) Townish but as the pool thins I get more worried
5) Obviously
7) I don't know

#helping

[Cephrir]

this is clearly talking about a role action

what action requires you to ask "is x possible?" nightkilling?

[Cephrir]

People who have medium-term memories: Was there anyone

other than Fate

who wanted Untrod Tripod dead on Day 1?

Vi, if you were to admire someone, from a scum perspective, what kind of action do you think they're taking?

Doc is the first action that comes to mind. Then again, how would you explain "mining"? Is there necessarily a correlation?

Probably all the people who voted for Untrod Tripod

[Cephrir]

oh joy, more VCA.

[Cephrir]

SpyreX claiming to sabotage Mastin's silo (the obvious target) confirms Cephrir does not need to die and thus does not need to suicide.

I did think of this.

I feel like your stance on me is driven by mafia theory and not by trying to win the game as town, but I might be biased

[Cephrir]

I swear i went through this too

I didnt want someone ruining fun all willy nilly so i put it. I got it on the cheap though. Sub, esp, covert i believe

i thought of you as someone who was pro-silly nuke fun.

[Cephrir]

@mod If someone with a sabotaged nuke headed towards them commits suicide, do they still die?

this was asked and the answer was yes

[Cephrir]

well, it makes sense if you think in terms of flavor.

[Cephrir]

mastina was heavily telegraphing heavily the day before DEFCON 1 that she was going to nuke LLD. I don't know to what degree SpyreX was basing his decision on that versus just his opinion of mastina's play.

This and trying to get me to kill myself add up to a big frown face for me

[Cephrir]

So if I'm scum, id have let mastin do stupid because in worst case even if he hit a partner half the game would have yelled bus. Defanging that madness is protown by any meausre and probably why i feel better about ut then objectively i should

Eh maybe

[Cephrir]

I don't really know how to hunt a serial killer :/

[Cephrir]

But you think that was show? Cause the sk knew zito was safe.

Hmm hmm who was on zitos list

There's literally no way the SK knew zito was safe unless it's you. Or were you softing it or something?

Or not paying attention, but that also points here

[Cephrir]

Unvote

Okay, basic math time. I don't know where the nuke will land, but lets say it hits Cephrir, or me, or whatever (not Vi now, obviously). It hits town (which it will if it's either of us). That leaves us at 4:2:1. Lynch SK, 4:2. Scum NK, 3:2. With Vi and UT as our two Nukes. If Vi is scum, that's game.

Vi says mathematically we have to lynch the serial killer.

I say I might owe my wife an apology.

Vote: Vi

It's these fucking logical inconsistencies that get you every fucking time.

An interesting theory, but I cannot see cheet as mafia probably ever.

[Cephrir]

I'm paying attention. I may not be posting constantly or always caught up, but I am reading your words.

I'm probably dying anyway, but yes

[Cephrir]

I shouldn't dismiss that possibility out of hand. I promise to think about it if I'm not dead and you are.

[Cephrir]

Well I guess not mathematically guaranteed if you aren't the target.

What's the first thing SpyreX says? "I bet Cephrir's the target". Vi has at least four different ways to win planned out in the scum QT right now, and they're in one of the scenarios.

Even in my world where you're wrong, Spyre is my best guess for both flavors of scum, so... my vote's looking pretty ok in the short run.

[Cephrir]

i'm glad i've arrived at a place in my mafia/mental state relationship where i can just find this whole conversation funny

[Cephrir]

Yeah we can't lynch the sk today unless we're confident Vi and UT are both town

My guess would be that they are, but... we do have to make a decision on that

[Cephrir]

This game state is super fucked up.

[Cephrir]

Moi kind of has to be town because that role is so pointless for scum

Nahdia is still town as well

I really think Vi is town

I can see lld spyre and grey scum pretty easily but I can't find a Russian pair in there that I believe in, so it may be time to look crossways at ut again. If we're lynching a missile it's that one for me, but I need to do some looking back and stuff

[Cephrir]

It's been fun guys

[Cephrir]

just say no, kids

[Cephrir]

I don't need to be on the same page, I'm dead!

[Cephrir]

I'm expressing my frustration for the fucking record because this is a

fucking lost game for town

Yeah, it probably is. I'm planning on enjoying my freedom.

Why do I come back to mafia, again?

[Cephrir]

Aww, it isn't funny anymore.

[Cephrir]

I probably should have realized that wouldn't be taken well.

[Cephrir]

СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Cephrir]

SS could've lost us the game if he managed to actually not get lynched

[Cephrir]

Hey now I only really bussed ss, and that because, you know, of how scummy he was (and later because he committed suicide)

[Cephrir]

Since Andrius never conveyed my messages in spite of my request...

Spoiler: Date: Mon Nov 14, 2016 7:05 pm

Obviously, this is information not to share with those who don't want to be spoiled, but for those who are spoiled and watching the game, you can convey to them the following:

Just for the record.
I both have, and have not, in fact, lost my marbles and gone batshit insane. There is both a madness to my method, and a method to my madness.

There is an exact 50/50 split chance between me getting lynched, and me not getting lynched, on D1. There won't be nukes on D1 from my understanding, unless my prediction of Reck changing his vote last-minute to NUKE THE BASTARDS turns true. And even if there were, they'd take 48 hours to hit, so I'll get a chance to post serious reads and whatnot before my death.

There are many people here who think I am scum for what I am doing. (I asked Andrius to only convey this message to those who are spoiled, because it makes it obvious that I'm not.) There are many people who for this play would policy lynch me.

But like most mastina plays, this is a calculated risk: I am gambling on the lynch not materializing. And I know that in this play...there will be mostly town who want to lynch me, with some scum. There will be some who defend me that are town, and some who defend me that are scum. Perhaps the more valuable one is that those who are on the fence are more likely to be scum, with maybe a few town.

Of course, if I know this. The default assumption would be, "well, that makes it a worthless play, right?". I mean, there's a reason Slayer's Gambit doesn't work. You have to know what you're trying to gain, and I just laid out how scum will be equally divided in their reactions, with mostly town involved. So surely, useless, right?

...As it turns out: no. What I'm gauging here is psychology, essentially. I'm not reading the players off of the expectation of "scum will do this, town will do that". I'm reading the players off the basis of, "That action looks like it comes from LLD as scum", and "that action looks like it comes from Cephrir as town". (Both true reads, btw.)

Of course, the tricky thing here is...I'm not an idiot. I know that the moment I change my tune, I am a deadwoman. I know that even if I play seriously for 3/4ths of a day phase, what I have already done will totally discredit any chance of my reads being taken seriously once I am gone at the hand of the town.

So, how, then, am I to convey to them the useful information?

The answer is...with subtlety. I'm looking for people who

understand

the situation. I'm looking for people who can grasp what I'm doing. And I'm looking to synchronize with those of them who I see as town. In essence, while I may not be able to directly convey important stuff, I'm hoping that I'll be able to relay it to key players who CAN convey the important stuff.

In other words. I'm looking to rattle feathers here, and reflect on subtle things. It's not the surface stance which matters. It's the tone, the intent, behind the stance which does. I cannot guarantee that I can read that...but the hope here is that I do decently enough to fuck the scum over.

I KNOW it is a big fucking huge risk.
If to nothing else, my reputation! Even if the players alive read this message (I'll be seriously pissed at Andrius if it isn't conveyed), would they actually believe me?

I mean, those that know me should. I'm MASTINA. Of

course

I have a plan. Of course it's a gambit. Of course it served a deliberate purpose. Of course I am still actually playing the game. Of course I was playing towards my wincon.

But to those who don't, they're just gonna see the shitty play and assume shitty player.

But I do know what I'm doing. I'm broadcasting my alignment, if people know what signs to really read. I'm looking for those who have read those signs...and for those who are faking knowing those signs. So like I said: method to madness, madness in method. Calculated risk. I'm HOPING for a payoff here, but we'll have to see.

If I fail, I do owe everyone that apology.

Spoiler: Date: Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:21 am

Another thing which can be shared:

I should probably make a running list of my reads.
Reck I go back and forth on. I can't lock him down. I want to assume town though.
I believe his Cheetory read is correct, too.
Cephrir is town as well.

I'm not so sure about SpyreX (or on the other side, hiplop), but my gut is telling me to believe Reck about UT.

Accountant I also go back and forth on, but lean town more than not. Nahdia could be either at this point. I want town, but I've got a bad feeling they may be scum.
Ser Arthur Dayne at this point could openly claim scum and I wouldn't believe him so if he's scum he already won.
Spiffeh is probably town, but I'm not super confident about it.
GIF's got at least a 60-70% chance of being town here, too.
No read on GreyICE yet, would be pretty ironic if he were scum with LLD, but I doubt that.
McMenno's a wildcard I'll watch.
Zito, hard to tell. I don't like his entrance, but I'm not sure he's scum for it.
I have no opinion on Something_smart.
I'm deliberately avoiding reading MoI.
Nukebringer is probably town, though seeing more spam from Firebringer would help my read there some more.


So, town to scum we get something like:

Ser Arthur Dayne
Cephrir
Cheetory
Nukebringer
Spiffeh
GiF
Reck
Accountant
Something_smart
MoI
McMenno
Fate
GreyICE
hiplop
SpyreX
Nahdia
Ircher
RC
Zito
UT
LLD

EDIT: Slightly lean towards scum on RC, but not strongly. List above edited to reflect that.
EDIT2: No read on Fate. Slightly bad vibes on Ircher. This, as of 26.

Spoiler: Date: Mon Nov 28, 2016 12:44 am

Another one to pass on:

I have to admit at this point, a large part of my strategy is playing up the parts of my personality I hate the most because it is the parts of my personality people perceive me to be. People perceive me to be arrogant, so I have ramped up the arrogance deliberately in response. People perceive me to be stupid, so I have played up my stupidity in response. People perceive me to be bad, so I have played up my suckiness in response. People perceive me to be insane, so I am obfuscating exactly that.

...Okay maybe I'm legit crazy so not exactly pretending there, but for the OTHER points, it holds true.

At this point, basically the aim is to keep portraying specific things.
This is to achieve multiple goals. Basically, the first goal there is that--while this is the absolute shittiest way to do this--my posting is meant to convey that I am town. (Seriously, I absolutely loathe, DESPISE, this tactic from players in games. It is the very thing I tell people to avoid doing, and try to discourage others from doing.)

Convincing people I am town might not seem like it's important. But it's part of the plan. I'm having trouble bringing the exact concept into words, but basically, by projecting my alignment to others, I am hoping to have projected BACK, as an echo, useful information from this. In essence, by making people see that I am town, I can manipulate circumstances such that I am in a position where I don't have to worry about being a distraction. I don't have to worry about people focusing attention on me. I can get the town to write me off.

The second part, related to the first, is in making people think I am useless, as an extension of writing me off. Now, you might wonder...why would I want people to write me off entirely? It's simple: because that way, I can deal damage to the scumteam.

If I am at any point killed, it tells the town that maybe just maybe, there was something that made me worthy of being killed. I have claimed vanilla. I am being, basically, an obnoxious fuck. If I die. Then that's pretty fucking significant! Furthermore. Even if I don't.

If I live to see D3, I get to launch a nuke. I have made it very well-known I am nuking LLD.

I am not planning on nuking LLD.
Whoever I DO nuke, though, will give answers: if someone shuts down my nuke, then that means someone wanted to keep LLD alive. This basically confirms LLD as scum, because by being written off by the town, the idea is that town won't waste their PRs on me. I WANT to be left open, to only the scum. If my nuke is intercepted, then so be it, but that tells us information. If my nuke lands, we get that flip and I get to have left an impact.

If nobody sabotaged my nuke, it also basically shows that the scum either don't have the power to sabotage me, or that they WANTED me to nuke LLD, effectively clearing her.

I realize it's a bit difficult for me to fully convey what this plan is.

But basically, the idea is deliberate, calculated, precise, selective guidance to specific things. I want people to be able to use my reads. I want my reads to be a threat to the scum. I want the scum, if they write me off, to pay dearly for it. I want the scum, if they pay attention to me, to be exposed for having paid attention to me, something which they shouldn't do unless I was an issue. I want the town to not waste time and effort on me. I want the town to focus their attention onto the scum.

So while my method is unorthodox, that's more or less what I'm focusing towards.

You might think.
"That's a stupid-ass plan, mastina!"

And to be fair, if it fails, yes it would indeed be rather stupid.

But by and large.

It's actually working

.

If I am massively wrong about my reads, then come D3, it will be obvious I was massively wrong about my reads, and we'll be much better able to refine and redo the list.
GreyICE basically nailed the point when he said that I would basically invert the list if given a reason to change the read. That point has the specific trigger, of D3. (Which I SHOULD live to see.)

If I am at all threatening with my reads, then the scum will in some way work to sabotage me.

So that part of the plan is basically surefire going to work. I don't even need to explain it, either. If the scumteam sabotage me, either by nightkill or by the strike team, it'll be SUCH a "what the fuck?!?" moment that they'll not need to be told this; they'll figure it out on their own. If the scumteam doesn't sabotage me, then I can explain it myself.

The part of the plan in question is the getting town to write me off. And that part, I think is working. Yes, I am the second-largest wagon. Or is it tied for first right now? Doesn't really matter. Yes I know that the people on there justifiably want me dead if for no other reason than policy. But you know what?

Even though I am town. I know the wagon won't go through. The scum aren't going to be stupid enough to force my lynch through. Yet there aren't enough town players interested in lynching me. So they'll lose interest. They'll get distracted. They'll pursue the shiny. They'll write me off. Maybe in their minds temporarily, but it'll be long enough. Just long enough, that I'll be given free reign.

So, I'm not worried right now.

I realize I could be making a fatal miscalculation.
No, literally, FATAL miscalculation. As in, lynched today, miscalculation. Meaning my work here would be wasted.

This IS a high-risk, high-reward plan.
But given my read of the situation, I think I'm fine. I'm reasonably confident that no matter how much I goad them, no matter how much I taunt them, my claims of them lacking the numbers to lynch me ring true. Too many people townread me or pretend too strongly TO townread me.

It also helps me direct things where I want them to go. For instance, the votes on me mostly came from Something_smart. In short, by drawing attention to MYSELF, I deliberately was shutting that wagon down. That'll make me look awfully fucking stupid if I'm wrong and Something_smart actually IS scum but I'm preeeeeeetty sure that Something_smart is actually town here, sooooooooooo...

...It's worth the risk.
I'll protect Vaxkiller and Something_smart, even if the cost of it is playing the most dangerous game of chicken with the noose ever. A sort-of, more subtle "Mastin Gambit". You know, "I'm so confident playername is alignment, that you can lynch me FIRST". That Mastin Gambit.



...Okay. Yeah. I'm crazy. I'm insane. This plan has so many ways it could go wrong and only a few it could go right with the ways it could go right potentially being underwhelming compared to my projections, compared to my expectations.

But I think this explanation makes it clear enough that,

yes

, is IS in fact a plan. I have a strategy. Maybe not a GOOD one. Maybe one that is universally to be called a bad one, ESPECIALLY if it goes awry. But it's a

plan

, nonetheless!

Spoiler: Date: Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:15 pm

More thoughts:
Right now, I do not hold an LLD scumread.
But by GOD I cannot give that away. People think I am going to nuke her. And my plan absolutely HINGES on people assuming I am going to nuke LLD. I absolutely canNOT let out the fact that I'm not scumreading her anymore, even though I feel like she isn't scum and I absolutely suck at subtlety. It is vital that the scum assume I am going to nuke her. Absolutely

essential

.

So with that in mind, I'm trying to keep focus elsewhere, to avoid bringing attention to LLD. I'm trying to avoid mentioning her much at all, and when I do to have it be in a neutral context rather than a negative one.

But right now, Ircher, RC, Zito, and GiF are who I'm focusing on.
RC and GiF strike me as the type to have come up with the codes the scum are using.
Ircher and Zito strike me as the type to be posting the spam in the scum PT. Particularly Zito.
Those four are my main suspects for being scum, and I'm trying to keep the focus there without giving away my plan.

I can't nuke Ircher. He put stock in all the anti-nuke options. Nor can I nuke GiF, for obvious reasons. (I mean, it'd be hella ballsy for me to do, but one, I'd be intercepted, and two, even if I wasn't then if I am wrong and GiF ended up being the town cop...I'd have fucking NUKED the TOWN COP. Not something I want on my resume. As impressive as nuking a scum cop would be, I know myself well enough to know that my read is FAR more likely to be wrong than right.)

What I

can

do, however, is...nuke RC, or nuke Zito. Preferably Zito, though RC is viable and was actually my plan until my Zito scumread grew.

Spoiler: Date: Thu Dec 08, 2016 7:52 pm

Been a while, but this whole post can be passed on:

I don't particularly like the tactic I am using right now. It is a fucking awful human being dirty scumbag tactic to use. But it's effective. REALLY effective. Pushing Cheetory's buttons and forcing him into the enraged state he is in is an awful thing to do. But what it does do is give me a better idea of him being town.

I think he is town right now. I really do.
It's been fluctuating a lot, but with this level of upset, this level of rage, this level of a breakdown, I don't think he's scum. I'm just trying to get that final push--that final absolute confirmation from him. If he is town, here, I think he can show it definitively. It might be in a way he never wanted to show anyone. But he'd show it all the same.

I'm also looking for people's reaction to his meltdown--that's equally as important a factor. He is probably town. He, therefore, probably does not have a scumbuddy telling him everything is going to be fine. But the scum, therefore, are in all likelihood...going to feel like utter shit for him feeling so shitty. They know I'm town and if Cheetory is town, they'll know he is town and know that our interaction as toxic as it has become was two players having a flare of passion. (Rather, one. I haven't held passion in my responses. This is cold. This is calculated. A very asshole thing to do, undoubtedly, but not something done with a lick of negative emotion.)

So what I'm looking for is how they respond, how they treat the situation.
I really don't think Cephrir is scum, for much the same reason I'm thinking Cheetory isn't. The game might not remember this at the moment given the flare of passion and emotions going on right now, but for me, it's...a little hard to forget. Cephrir held a similar "fuck you" attitude, one which was to the point of being beyond what I think he is capable of summoning as scum.

I also don't think Vaxkiller is scum. And I know hiplop isn't a Russian.
UT's a bit of an assumption on my part.

But if Cheetory isn't scum.
Then in those other five names, there are two who ARE scum.

Between LLD, SpyreX, GreyICE, Nahdia, and MagnaofIllusion, I'm hoping at least one of them shows their true colors in the heat of this moment.

And for the record: aside from potentially this, I don't hold regrets. I have played to the best of my ability to fulfill my wincon. I have scumhunted. I have made deductions. I have analyzed. I have been wrong as much as I have been right, but me being wrong is not reason for me to stop trying. If it were, I'd have stopped giving effort long ago. Yet it's not.

As town, my JOB is to try and find the scum. My JOB is to try and expose the scum. And if I haven't done it before, that's not reason to quit--that's reason to try harder to get it done right in the now. And because it's my job to scumhunt, because it's my job to keep trying, it doesn't matter how wrong I have been. My duty is to get the town closer to finding scum.

So that was my plan and thought process on it, as the game unfolded, more or less.

[Cephrir]

Right, about that. Did no one notice it said kelly???