Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame


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Post Post #1000 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:46 pm

Post by VictorDeAngelo »

In post 994, TwoFace wrote:If victor gets to l-1 I'll hammer. If he's town he doesn't read well and is a liability. If he's scum well I can actually see a sotty/hoopla/victor team and yes I'm a little crazy
In fact, why aren't you voting me already.
In post 950, mhsmith0 wrote:
Votecount 1.13
GreyICE (6)

MichelSableheart (1)

VictorDeAngelo (5)

Sotty7 (1)
,
Not Voting (1)
,


Day one deadline is Thursday November 3, 8 AM PST. (expired on 2016-11-03 08:00:00)

With 13 alive, it's 7 to lynch!
[/size]
No way you didn't see this on the previous page.

No way you still believe a Sotty wagon is happening. You have said repeatedly you want me more than GreyICE. Why are you so keen to wait for me to get to L-1 exactly?
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Post Post #1001 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:59 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Okay, back, starting my thoughts. Buuuut since this is sticking out at me

Hey Victor:
In post 965, VictorDeAngelo wrote:Assuming I’m right about GreyICE being scum it’s likely all three scum are on my wagon at this point. I think gm is one because she has been scum for a long time. Not sure on the other. I was wondering about Rask until 963 but now I kind think he is town. I think TwoFace is depressingly town because he hasn’t jumped on which would have been the sensible thing to do if he was aligned with GreyICE (in the unlikely event Grey is town though TwoFace is more than likely scum). So it would probably be one of Jaack or Maria. Grey's reluctance to push the Jaack wagon despite the fact he was scumreading him suggests that it's likely to him.
What happened to the all three scum on your wagon since I'm scum? Or have you realized that's not going to fly tomorrow with my townflip?

By the by, Blackvoid, what do you think of this?
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Post Post #1002 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:01 pm

Post by GreyICE »

I'm asking since Sotty and you are practically the only people (at least the only non-IAI people) who are willing to commit to a strong Victor townread, and that entire post was so flaming fucking bad. Please re-evaluate for tomorrow.
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Post Post #1003 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:04 pm

Post by VictorDeAngelo »

In post 1001, GreyICE wrote:Okay, back, starting my thoughts. Buuuut since this is sticking out at me

Hey Victor:
In post 965, VictorDeAngelo wrote:Assuming I’m right about GreyICE being scum it’s likely all three scum are on my wagon at this point. I think gm is one because she has been scum for a long time. Not sure on the other. I was wondering about Rask until 963 but now I kind think he is town. I think TwoFace is depressingly town because he hasn’t jumped on which would have been the sensible thing to do if he was aligned with GreyICE (in the unlikely event Grey is town though TwoFace is more than likely scum). So it would probably be one of Jaack or Maria. Grey's reluctance to push the Jaack wagon despite the fact he was scumreading him suggests that it's likely to him.
What happened to the all three scum on your wagon since I'm scum? Or have you realized that's not going to fly tomorrow with my townflip?
I'm not allowed to reevaluate? TwoFace making it clear he's only prepared to vote me if I get to L-1 is made me rethink.
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Post Post #1004 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:05 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Yeah sure. The fact I'll flip town has nothing to do with it.

If you guys don't lynch this scumfuck I'll be very sad with y'all.
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Post Post #1005 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:07 pm

Post by VictorDeAngelo »

If you flip town I'll reevaluate as well.

But I don't think you'll flip town. On the other hand I know I'm town so I suspect the scum at this point to be all about a Victor lynch in order to save their buddy.
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Post Post #1006 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:42 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Blackvoid


He's got all my favorite signs of town - paranoia, inquisitiveness, followup. He's communicating well, and he's thinking about things. He has a newbie scum game already, it was classic JAQing off. Not terrible, but he's pretty clearly town here.

I think things like this are just... town. It's natural progression:
In post 149, BlackVoid wrote:Okay but just saying that it's his "town-meta" doesn't help me gauge his alignment or yours. Can you explain in a few sentences what his town-meta is like?
In post 158, BlackVoid wrote:VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee

Feel better with my vote here. I think he's more likely to be scum than Rask for the reasons I gave earlier.
In post 151, Hoopla wrote:It's not so much process-of-elimination. Just an observation from my experience that early large wagons often tend to be town.
I get the logic there but I think it depends on the context. I can see scum jumping on an early partner-wagon to let it fall apart through paranoia. I can also see scum resisting early an town wagon for the opposite reason.

What do you think about the fact that the Rask-wagon dismantled so easily? Also, do you have a read on BBT?
Maybe he's got me all fooled. Doubt it. I do not see a reason to vote for him.
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Post Post #1007 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:44 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Goodmorning


Look, I said it before, but I'll reiterate. She's fooling around, but there's a lot of solid insight in there. This yells town mentality to me. She's good reasoning, good thinking, and pretty obviously town. See my previous posts.
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Post Post #1008 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:46 pm

Post by MariaR »

Ughh wth
guess I should go Iso Blackvoid
I bet Maria is scum this game
~Firebringer
Na Maria isn't towny enough to be scum this game~
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MariaR goes for the uwu owo tsundere-dere look but you never know if she has a knife behind her back.~
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Post Post #1009 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:01 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Hoopla


Now we come to one of the thorniest problems. Hoopla. I am convinced she is pretty sure/knows I am town, I am convinced she is voting me anyway despite that. Every one of her posts to me is directed at a townie. And I hate how the wagon with Jack went. "GreyICE, you need to join me, or we won't get a lynch." "GreyICE, Victor isn't happening." "Oh, the game is moving forward, good vote!" "Oh, I'm voting GreyICE over Victor". Look at posts like this:
In post 692, Hoopla wrote:Grey, you should start scumreading yourself and Jack. I think it might change BlackVoid's mind.
100% directed at town-me.

Posts like these are a huge scumtell:
In post 860, Hoopla wrote:
In post 857, MariaR wrote: It's not like we have less than 24 hours or something we have 3 days that's plenty of time to come up with a lynch I think the problem is everyones reads are very spread out
I don't think the jaack wagon is going anywhere today so I['ll go on this one
VOTE: Victor
That's the thing. People always assume we have time and that others will come around to their way of thinking before the end of deadline, which prevents people from compromising.

^Good game-forwarding vote, though
The "Good vote!" but not voting with a person thing is super hyper scum buddying. Soooooo... why might she be town despite her voting for someone she thinks is town, and acting like scum?

There's a form of toxic thought process that goes like this: "anything I'm bad at isn't important". You see it all the time. How many tech guys/computer programmers have you seen whine about all the unnecessary social stuff that happens in the office? They're bad at it = it's not important. How often have you seen people dismiss computers and treat them as meaningless because they're bad at them? Have you ever heard someone put down other majors, complain about needing to write things for science classes, or talking about how math can be done by computers in English? They're engaged in this thinking pattern. "If I can't do it, it must not be important."

Hoopla is terrible at day 1 shit. Has she degraded to the point where she's so trapped in a toxic thought loop that she's effectively playing like scum while as town? Unfortunately her last post brought up that distinct possibility.

Fortunately there's a way for me to check this. Meta dive. Calcified thinking is one of the few things that's meta diveable, because it's impossible to hide. A toxic thought process is terminating to creativity, it won't disguise itself because its incapable of doing so.

Subject: Mini Normal 1809: Game Over
Hoopla wrote:ok, i have RETURNED

i've done a quick read over the pages i've missed and the main concern i have is about the lack of serious wagons that have been generated. a lot of people are posting noise and are not attempting to further the game through their votes, which is bad given we've already used 30% of day 1's allotted time. the most important things that happen on day 1 post-claim, and we NEED time to analyse that/potentially switch and create a counterwagon or whatever else. so start voting people who are realistic wagons.

on this topic, i'm not sure what to think of elyse. initially i had her as quite town before bbmolla decided to conftown himself, and though i still find her zeal for that vote OK and not suspicious, it is concerning that she talks about willing to compromise and search for new targets yet has done nothing in the last 8 pages and STILL hasn't unvoted bbmolla despite acknowledging he isn't going to happen today.

i'm liking the composition of the vedith wagon: bbmolla, cmitc1 and house make for a fairly town trio, so i am going to jump on board given i don't have a town read on vedith.

VOTE: vedith

more to come...
And... sadly this is the same thought-terminating schlock that I see this game. Unsurprisingly Vedith was lynched day 1, unsurprisingly he was town. So I am faced with the possibility that Hoopla has simply become trapped in a toxic loop.

Now if Victor flips scum then you have to re-evaluate, because her Jack->Me slide is definite positioning play from Hoopla, and she just wrote three paragraphs trying to sell me on her being town. That's a lot of work to sell the guy you're voting for on you being town. A whole fucking lot of work for that.
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Post Post #1010 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:04 pm

Post by GreyICE »

IAI


He lurked in this game as long as he was allowed to. While posting in another game. This is an EXTREMELY strong scumtell.

When talk of him getting vigged popped up he ran in to yell "Jack or Grey!" He's now back to lurking.

Fucking burn this shitter to the ground. If you think he's town you just plain suck at the game. Frankly if he somehow flips town I'd look at the people saying he's town before the ones saying he's scum, because the only fucking way you could townread him is if you had a quicktopic he wasn't in. Good. Fucking. God.
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Post Post #1011 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:18 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Jack


Jack is not a very emotionally invested player, and plays extremely logically. This is one of the reason for my early scumreads, because a lot of his observations are just a tad... pat. Like, they're easy to make and don't say much.
In post 101, Jaack wrote:Of those three I think Sotty is most likely. She had an empty vote, but at the same time added a few weak reads right afterword. Seems like someone who knew their vote was not good, so they decided to put down some content so as to not get blamed for fluff. also shows more self awareness about the quality of her posts.
See it's overreasoning for the vote, and the reasoning isn't very good.
In post 111, Jaack wrote:
In post 109, MariaR wrote:Jack why do you think talking about dice is risky for scum btw I don't get it
Using dice tags in rvs is the kind of thing that tends to get people on your case, essentially for the reasons michel gave when he voted hoopla. It's sort of like self voting in rvs in that it's liable to get people talking about you early.

I don't think it's a pro-town play, but it rather on the nose for scum.
Similarly if Hoopla is town, this is a very easy observation to make. If she's scum... eh, that's harder. I honestly think based on this post if Jack's scum then Hoopla is assuredly town. But again, it's thin.
In post 318, Jaack wrote:I go away for a bit and everyone posts everything. Let's ketchup
In post 112, goodmorning wrote:
In post 101, Jaack wrote:If there is scum on the wagon
I like that you start by saying "IF" and then somewhere between there and the end of the post it magically changes to "IS" with no real explanation.

And by "I like" I mean "I don't like." Also VCA is dumb ok
(1)
Just looking for a place to start. While you may disagree with my methods of getting there, I do think my logic for scumreading sotty is solid, which is, you know, why I posted it.
(2)
I think that's all that was directly addressed to me, but for some general thoughts--
(3)
It seems strange to me that there has been as much discussion about BBT with his lack of content, particularly when he is not alone in said lack of content. (particularly I Am Innocent, but also sort of myself and Michel)
(4)
Still comfortable with townreading Hoopla and Rask. BlackVoid seems relatively townie as well.
(5)
I kinda have no clue whats going on with Victor and GM, although Victor's last few rage-y posts do feel a little fake to me.
(6)
I was inclined to townread Cloud for his early trolly play, but the self-awareness and apology-ness of give me pause.
(7)
All in all I'm still rather comfortable with my vote on Sotty for now.
I'd like to go over some things that irk me about this post. The first is
(2)
. What does "posting general thoughts" do here? They don't seem very good. Now lets combine it with
(3)
. He self-consciously calls himself out for doing something scummy in three, which explains the motivation for
(2)
. He wants to add more content so he's not going to get scumread.
(4)
and
(5)
are just fluff, although the fake thing on Victor is either a good catch or something you say as insurance when your buddy flips.
(6)
and
(3)
are just a waste of time other than his own self-scum read. Breaking it down... I wouldn't be sad if he was lynched on the basis of this post alone.

So why am I reluctant? Because some of this stuff is pretty town. Let me give you some examples:
In post 515, Jaack wrote: I think cloud is going a bit under the radar as of late. A lot of people seem to be willing to write off his actions as playstyle, but reading through this iso, it seems like he's been trying way to hard to assert himself as an important part of the town while simultaneously acting trolly. I'm not really sure here, but I'm feeling he's scummier than people have been treating him as of late.
Wow that's exactly my thoughts on Cloud.
In post 800, Jaack wrote:
In post 795, Sotty7 wrote:
In post 754, Jaack wrote:But in that interim, she does very little to push on that TwoFace vote.
Okay that's just blatantly untrue. I push Twoface hard and we have an extensive back and forth that could have easily became a death tunnel. I am interacting and questioning twoface who starts off answering me and then just really falls back to insulting and taking pot shots at me. I pushed his voting behavior, I asked him for several reads a couple of pages back that he still hasn't provided. What would you consider "pushing a scum read"? Vote them then disappear for several pages and never interacting or questioning them again like you have been doing with me?
Upon further examination, I will concede this. I didn't originally feel as if your discussions with TwoFace were particularly productive and it felt more like you were biding your time until BBT came back and you could focus on him again. On a second read, I don't think you're pushes on TwoFace are as intense as your pushes on BBT, which does give me pause, but it's the smoking gun I considered it before.

As for the shade on me, I get it. I screwed up by being lazy and not participating for a good section of this game. If I get lynched for it that's on me. But that fact that you keep bringing up every time I try and do something now is counterproductive. Well, at least it's detrimental to me trying to contribute. Just because I had a bad start to the game doesn't mean I can't have something to say now.
This is also town as fuck. The "shit or get off the pot" attitude is fucking town. There's a mea culpa, but no apologies. It's like "okay, my early game was shit, but I'm still in the game so I get to fucking play it." Town.
In post 874, Jaack wrote:
In post 870, MariaR wrote: I don't hate anyone! ;-;
In post 866, MariaR wrote: I h8 u
Blatant contradiction, confscum
Again, things like this are pretty playful and attention grabbing for scum.

Soooooo............ conflicted? But leaning town.
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Post Post #1012 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:18 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Mod: The forum has decided to double post everything I'm writing. Please delete?


Mod: done
Last edited by mhsmith0 on Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #1013 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:20 pm

Post by GreyICE »

MariaR


I find myself having less to say about strong town reads. Engaged, has consistent internal logic, has strong feelings, has... oh fuck it, if she's scum I have a shoe to eat or something. Like whatever. Town town te town town town de town town. Stop fucking scumreading her BV.
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Post Post #1014 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:22 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Michael Sableheart


I explained my issues with someone who 'explains everything' having poor votes. If your philosophy is that it's your duty to explain the hell out of everything you do having unconvincing votes is a strong scumtell, and you'd tend to lean towards bad play over scum play.

The engagement level didn't feel high, and I wasn't enthralled of the lurking. The replace out is pretty null-scum (his last game he was scum and stayed the course, but his playstyle still favors being town).

Creature... no opinions yet.
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Post Post #1015 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:28 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Rask


Now we get another hard one. He started right off the bat with an immediate town read... that he then immediately set in fire and burned by going "lol that's poppycock." Scum have a near compulsive need to point out bad reasoning that shows they're town. Townies don't have nearly the same need, because reasoning that shows they're town by definition looks better to them (it has the draw of being right). I don't know how many scum I've seen go "actually I would do that as scum, lol". It's like... compulsion. I don't think Rask is above it. So we have to look at her without that, because at best she rendered it null.

And...
In post 85, Raskolnikov wrote:
In post 82, Hoopla wrote:
In post 70, Raskolnikov wrote:Mostly though, the post saying she feels her scumread is about to crack under pressure but she changes vote is absurd to me.
I feel like it's fairly obvious from context that I am just teasing goodmorning (she seems like a good kid imo and I might invite her to start a town bloc if/when she proves her innocence to me) -- but really, who could resist such a juicy wagoning opportunity this early in the game?
Okay, if you're town stop talking like this then.

It's vague as to when you're "serious" or not which makes any given action low-commitment. If an opinion is convenient to hold on to, you can later say it was serious. If inconvenient, you can say it wasn't.
But in this case that feels like a stretch. You voted on dice and then said you voted not for it which implied it was at least somewhat serious, as well as what you said about switching. It's almost goes too far really.

Whatever align this has to end. Anyone can realise the issue here; if someone is disingenuous and saying things they don't mean as town, you are not any different from scum being disingenuous and saying things they don't mean. This behaviour from town makes scumhunting difficult so it shouldn't be allowed on principle past RVS (is this still rvs?) unless it's very obvious to be joking, which evidently it was not. And it gives scum an out when people do find a slip up.

It also just annoys me, but that's because I am a uptight bastard who gets bothered seeing people all cheerful-like and having fun... But that's not relevant here.
*ahem*

I want a serious read from you on me as leading wagon, goodmorning (good kid? is that a read or personality?), and whatever else you can offer. Underneath your attitude, I am vaguely familiar with your experience and particularly game knowledge from the setup theory threads, and even if this particular thing hadn't happened, I would want something from you anyways at this point to judge.

Town. Shit like this, telling off a well-positioned town player? Without calling them scum? Fucking town.
In post 92, Raskolnikov wrote:Am I in the twilight zone?
Hoopla wrote:You may not like it, but it's already netted us an L-2 wagon so I must be doing something right.
You seem to be taking credit for this wagon which I don't get. Not only that, but justifying your playstyle with it (??).
Even if you assume any early wagon is good as it starts the game, I'm pretty sure your style was not the cause of this at all and that doesn't somehow negate or address my actual, explicitly voiced problems with it.

Me: I have a problem with your play for X Y and Z reasons
Answer: [doesn't respond to points] it got us this l-2 wagon so it must be good!

Will anyone see my problem with this?

If you actually think like this, UGH.
Hoopla wrote:I thought BlackVoid's post illuminating your overly qualifier-y post was good and I like to reward good posts with wagon support.
Okay, we're starting to get into sensible territory.
Do you know what though? I townread black for that post as well. I don't think he is scum who faked that perspective.
The question isn't if you think it's a good post or not, it's if you agree with what's said as something alignment indicative.

If you're town and think playing the game "rewarding" good posts with votes without having your own opinion is a good approach, I don't know what to say. For starting an rvs wagon, okay. It's still earlygame for now.
But if you play like this midgame or later (well you see your honor, I lynched him yesterday to reward a good post) it might be actually be for the best if I'm out of this early.
More followup, good followup.

Paranoia on my slot, again town.

Overall: Town
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Post Post #1016 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:36 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Sotty


And now we reach a hard one again. Not because I'm super conflicted, but because I do think Sotty really deserves that respect.

In this case I see fairly aggressive town play:
In post 59, Sotty7 wrote:Beggars can't be choosers.

Unvote, Vote: Raskolnikov

We see really, REALLY good things:
In post 46, Sotty7 wrote:I'm curious Cloud, how do you kick start games on epicmafia without random voting?

RVS has been here for as long as I have been on this site, or at least as long as I remember. It's changed and migrated over the years, but it is pretty much always fruitful in starting the game from nothing, especially since day starts became more common. It's not perfect but the reason it is still here is because there hasn't really been anything to replace it.

I mean right now we have you and Michel debating playing style over anything that has really happened in the game yet. Strongly held play ideals won't change from a scum to town role, but perhaps how someone enters the game in "RVS" will.
Not this question, that's null.
In post 68, Sotty7 wrote:
In post 61, CloudKicker wrote:
In post 60, Sotty7 wrote:Happy enough with hoopla's post on Michel to have him as my first town read. Hoopla piggybacks off this with a slight town read as well, even though she probably would point this out as scum or town.

Cloud I have a neutral read since most of his posts have been about playing style but I'm hoping that's just because he is new.

Everyone else is pretty much nothing at this point.
lol funny, i have no idea why youd make a post avec someone null-telling with non-alignement tellings posts about mechanics. Also, whats the difference between ''much nothing at this point'' and ''neutral read'' -> isnt everyone a neutral read by default when you dont have any reads on them
What do you think of this wagon that's popped up?

You're right about the neutral read but I wanted to make more of a mental note when it came to you.
This followup. She doesn't understand how he thinks, so she's poking at it.
In post 184, Sotty7 wrote:
In post 126, CloudKicker wrote:>I dont actually know if this is towny or considered anti-town for outing possible soft but, why using the word
Innocent
capitalized over town/townie/sided with the town ? And if this was a soft, wold you make yourself the goal to have interactions with me almost every single you have? like i feel you have 0 actuals reads on me.
Innocent is capitalized because I was talking about a player that is in the game -> "I am Innocent" I don't blame you for missing it that, he's a lurking bum right now.
Reading, interacting, following
In post 273, Sotty7 wrote:
In post 269, CloudKicker wrote:
In post 263, Hoopla wrote:
In post 188, CloudKicker wrote:LOL woops btw i just townsliped that i cannot be mafia with i am innocent or i am a pro at forum mafia in my first game
Usually when you point out things like this yourself they're less likely to be true than if someone else noticed it themself. Kinda like when people use the argument "I would never do X as scum", when that person has been doing X all game.
I come from a site where its very very hard to townslip on purpose and this was genuine. Its not alignement indicative to point said slip, you can then judge for yourself if you believe it is one or not :D Mostly scum will disagree, ppl who will 100% buy it are scum pocketing you and the rest is yolo. Seriously most of the users on EM are disgustingly incompetent at mafia so i point out the slips. But i agree with the wifom.. i would never wifom like that as scum :shifty:
Also, its just a non-team slip and its an obvious one
Someone points out why self meta is bad, you quote them and continue to self meta.

The flirting stuff is gross too :?

EBWOP: This is all because you can't read her Cloud? The vote suggests you are leaning more scum than anything else. When you say you want a read from her- you want her to read you or the game in general?

MariaR - Have you seen this from Cloud before?
Following, finding consensus...
In post 387, Sotty7 wrote:
In post 368, MariaR wrote:#ForevernullMaria
Talk to me about your Michel scum read or if it even is one. You have left your vote here for a long time now with little to no pressure, why should we be lynching him?
Maria drops the ball on responding, but Sotty doesn't call it out (even though she legit could) but she keeps asking and sorting...

There's more threads like this. Man, I dunno. If she's scum my respect level goes up for her a notch and it's already very high. I really, really, really would have a hard time believing it.
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Post Post #1017 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:42 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Two Face



Ugh.

I want want want to say town. I want to want to want to. The only thing is if Victor is scum and he's scum then he's painted himself into a corner where he just has to sit and hope I get hammered. Which is... exactly what he's doing, while saying victor is a fine lynch. But man, every bone in my body yells active, engaged town. Town in a deep tunnel though. Err...

Geez. Okay, so what we have here is a lot of things that individually make me say town, while general positioning says its easy to fake being in a tunnel all day. But... he's new to this site, he's in one other game that's ongoing and therefore I couldn't discuss it. But honestly, I think he leans town here.

I dunno. Welcome to me actually going into this wanting to say one thing and just not being able to. I still really feel he's town, but this is not where I thought it would be. I'd put down $20 on town, but not $200.
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Post Post #1018 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:45 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Well there you are. I don't think you need me to tell you I still think Victor is town.

This is my guide to the game. If you do lynch me, remember: multiple people in this game have said I'm a good player. Hoopla has talked me up, Black has read my other games, I have good reads. Am I 100%? No. No one is. Best player on this site was probably old-Glork (pre his semi-retirement) and even he estimated he was in the 50-60% range. Which is fucking phenomenal. But my reads are almost certainly better than yours. I am not saying this out of arrogance, please do not dismiss it. I am a very good player, and these are my reads. You should strongly consider basing night actions and lynches at least partially on what I've said.
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Post Post #1019 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:45 pm

Post by GreyICE »

is scum...

Good god my brain
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Post Post #1020 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:45 pm

Post by GreyICE »

oooookay, enough staring at this site for one day. Peace y'all.
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Post Post #1021 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:09 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

So, I'm finding it hard to pin down confident scumreads even though I have good, solid townreads that I believe in. I'll try and work out where I am currently.

I have six townreads that I haven't really doubted for a while: Victor, IAI, TwoFace, goodmorning, Cloud, and Jaack. That leaves six others. Here's a table of interactive tells:

PlayerGreyICERaskMariaRSotty7CreatureHoopla
GreyICE
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Rask
Probable
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
MariaR
Probable
Unlikely
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Sotty7
Eliminate
Probable
Probable
N/A
N/A
N/A
Creature
Probable
Probable
Likely
Probable
N/A
N/A
Hoops
Eliminate
Probable
Eliminate
Unlikely
Unlikely
N/A


Hoopla is not a read I have no doubts about because I do. However:
  • I eliminate Hoopla/GreyICE because their antagonism in their little back-and-forth was understated which points against scum theater.
  • I eliminate Hoopla/MariaR for being too in-sync about their "worry" that there was no counter to the Grey wagon.
  • I think Hoopla/Sotty7 is unlikely because Hoopla switched to BBT to make it a competing wagon and then blatantly said that the competing wagons will give us good info for later. I think this will be a sticking point because TwoFace is arguing that they are partners. But Hoopla might as well be setting up her own lynch down the line with her play here.
  • I think Hoopla/Creature is unlikely because Creature replaced in, found Hoopla's readslist and used that as a basis for his reads.
Unless Hoopla is deviously good at laying false interactions, she can't be scum with any of my not-townreads. Besides that I think she hit a few town notes in her back-and-forths with Victor and GreyICE that supplement this read.

I think Rask/MariaR is unlikely because of passing comments that Rask is making such as telling her Jaack is town if he dies and commenting on how her read on me is bad. I put MariaR as a likely partner to Creature because Michel threw out some random associatives tying her to BBT and voted BBT.

If GreyICE is town, the scumteam pretty much
has
to be Sotty7, Creature, and one of MariaR or Rask. My bets are on MariaR.

MariaR, Sotty7, Creature.


I think the sticking point is that a whole lot of people are just not buying why Victor and IAI are town so I'll get to work on that soon.
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Post Post #1022 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:12 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

In post 1001, GreyICE wrote:By the by, Blackvoid, what do you think of this?
I don't think it's scummy of him to change his reads. I'm somewhat annoyed because your last few posts have looked town but I still think Victor has been more town throughout the game and I also have a townread on IAI. If it's you vs Victor or any of my townreads, then I'd rather flip you. But I still hope you come around to helping me lynch someone in my scumpool.

I don't understand why you townread MariaR or Sotty7.
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Post Post #1023 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:39 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

By the way, if GreyICE does flip scum (which is possible but I wouldn't put particularly high odds on), then MariaR and Creature are still his most likely partners with Rask as a distant outside shot. Basically, I'm saying MariaR and Creature are scum either way. I'd go 50/50 on GreyICE/Sotty7.
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Post Post #1024 (ISO) » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:32 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Like I actually wrote quite a bit on Sotty. Go read it.

As for IAI you note that scum wouldn't go all-in on me flipping scum. You then you note that you don't think I'll flip scum. So he's not all-in, is he? You're still town reading him for that aggression, even though you don't think I'll flip scum. You still town read him after I flip town? Then why can't that aggression be a scum ploy? 'Cause scum's only goal is to get you to town read him and man, he's done that for some reason.
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