Micro 643: Desperation Day (Game Over)

[Comparing Realities]

Mutliquote megaposts remain my main method of communication.

What.
That eat a kitten bit sounds like you are spoofing Donald Trump, sorrynotsorry.

You dare offend our soon-to-be god-king Trump? Onto the no-fly list with ye!

that was a very poignant speech, Comparing Realities. very moving.

of the two meaningless wagons so far, this is the one that feels like it has slightly more behind it (plus, that dabbing panda is weird):

VOTE: keyenpeydee

>missing the whole point of RVS to be honest
You don't join one of two main wagons simply because the

other

wagon has too much pressure, that undermines the effect we're trying to create, that sheer psychological torment of having everyone senselessly hate you for no explicable reason beyond your ugly dabbing panda face. If anything, you want to add as much pressure as possible to a preexisting wagon, to, you know, elicit a reaction and stuff~ Otherwise the whole point of RVS is moot.
Not saying this is a scum read, but assuming xyzzy is scum, rb and key are the most plausible partners due to the converse possibilities of majority anti-maintenance and WIFOM.

Guys, since we auto win if we lynch Mafia on Day 3
I suggest we just skip both Day 1 and Day 2.

We can still scumhunt until then, but I don't want to lynch anyone till day 3. Especially not strongest scumread till then.
Because we don't need to lynch both scum, just on the right day.

Thoughts?

~menos

Pros:
-Town avoids ml'ing previous days, meaning that going into D3 after failing D1 and 2, scum have a harder time quick-hammering.
-Allow our correct scum reads time to fester, and our incorrect ones time to wither.

Cons:
-Town avoids ml'ing previous days, meaning that going into D3, we have a -raw- chance of 2/7 instead of 2/5 for lynching scum.
-Allow our incorrect scumreads time to fester.
-Scum have an easier time quickhammering if we fail to hit scum D1 and 2, and are at that point significantly more coordinated
-We lose the ability to pick who flips; all information revealed is at the whim of the scum instead of town
-NLing in general is almost always non-ideal, because it's the only institutional power town has
-Math (I'm not sure yet, but very few setups have town benefit by an nl for the above two reasons)
-The mafia are kicked significantly harder in the nuts by losing a member than the town is, even considering the D3 Rule. There is no such thing as coordination anymore, and they lose a significant portion of their informational advantage.

The chance of lynching out of two mafia is less than the chance of lynching just one mafia, even though the raw chance is doubled.

So what you think of delaying lynches to ensure a town win on day 3?
I doubt we will lynch 2 scum days 1 and 2. Statistically thats not likely.
Also would be harder to lynch a scum on day 3 if there are only 1 of them.

And if we just do mislynches then there are less town to figure it out.

I think we should do it!

~Menos

There comes a point where more townspeople create more chaos than anything. It depends on their personality; you are assuming that town is naturally inclined to work together, and that idea makes me laugh. Why work together when your partner might braek yo nees that very night?
Town are not a team; they are a loose band of individuals sharing a common goal, who all have little to no reason to trust eachother starting out. Two stupid masons are less helpful than one genius VT. D1 lynches serve to clear the unsightly personalities from our midst; we don't lynch the scummiest person, but the one least likely to lead to an engaging game.

and go into day 3 with basically no info besides who died nights 1 and 2 and which players agreed to no lynch? that seems like a wildly bad idea

like how are you proposing that we'd scumhunt without actually lynching anyone?

<--This sentiment exactly

that seems difficult at best. that'd basically be giving scum free reign to set up day 3 however they like

I'm gonna check the math real quick but I'm pretty sure even just based on random choices that's a subpar choice for the town to make. also I'm guessing that callforjudgment already did that math and came to the conclusion that a ruleset allowing for a no lynch to happen explicitly does not make the game mathematically more breakable that way??? probably.

Thinking on it, we should play normally. We hit scum Days 1 or 2, we have an extra day to get information. If we mislynch both days, we have an objective 40% chance to win.

No, we do not have an objective 40% chance to hit scum. If we go into D3 versus two scum, and we don't have damning enough evidence on one, we lose, full stop. There is no middle ground, no chance we win if we waste our first two days, which, ironically, makes lynching today all the more imperative.

I don't like this post.

What do you not like about it Key?

~Menos

First of all, On that post, You said we should just skip D1 and D2 because we auto win when we lynched a Mafia D3. So how do we lynch scum if we don't have any evidences and info?

NL-ing on D1 and D2 is never a good choice. There's still a chance that if we lynched a mafia D1 or D2, We can use some things that he town read the most, Which have a possibility it's his scum buddy.

For me, you are the most scummy here and I don't get your point.

VOTE: Mas y Menos

Bad ideas D1 =/= scummy
Bad ideas = possible D1 lynch target if no explicitly scummier persons emerge
If having a bad idea makes you scum, then town is the minority faction. If you want to seriously argue that this is serious evidence in favor of Mas being scum, then you first have to demonstrate why scum!Mas wants to put their neck on the line by seeding the conscious with ideas that they know are bad. Furthermore, I don't think that scum!Mas would be inclined to introduce a volatile and generally unfamiliar tactic that would indubitably make them the target of the game's first controversy, while at the same time possibly being a helpful tool for town.
So, keeping this in mind as I read Mas y Menos: I had no direct evidence on them for the time being,

but

, if the talkative head of Mas appears to know this is a bad idea, they are scum with a peculiar courage, and if they don't, they are not scum.

I'm not sure whether I did this math completely correctly (the first set of numbers add up to 1.002, which might be a rounding error, or it might be that I missed something???? not sure) but the numbers mostly match the numbers the original thread for this setup had, which maybe I just should've checked there first,

but whatever

anyway here's stats for town odds if we lynch d1 and d2 vs no lynch d1 and d2. I didn't check the numbers for if we only lynch one of those days because I'm pretty sure the general rule that town odds are better with an even number of players still applies with how d3 works:

7/9*5/7*3/5 = .333 (no scum ever lynched, scum win)
7/9*2/7*4/5*2/3 = .119 (scum lynched d1 or d2, scum win) (2 ways this can happen)
7/9*5/7*2/5 = .222 (no scum lynched d1 or d2, scum lynched d3, town win)
7/9*2/7*3/5*2/3 = .089 (scum lynched d1 or d2, town lynched d3, scum lynched d4, town win) (2 ways this can happen)
2/9*1/7 = .032 (scum lynched d1 and d2, town win)

43.1% chance of town win if we lynch day 1 and day 2

5/7*3/5 = .429 (town lynched d3 and d4, scum win)
5/7*2/5*2/3 = .190 (town lynched d3, scum lynched d4, town lynched d5, scum win)
5/7*2/5*1/3 = .095 (town lynched d3, scum lynched d4 and d5, town win)
2/7 = .286 (scum lynched d3, town win)

38.1% chance of town win if we no lynch day 1 and day 2

so it's objectively worse to no lynch

also I don't trust your home site as a good source of info because that's entirely dependent upon the site meta. does your home site focus on mostly setups with lots of power roles, for instance? if so, those numbers are completely irrelevant to this game.

I'll run my own simulation and check it to your own:

-Lynching D1 & D2-
7/9 x 5/7 x 3/5 (town D1, town D2, town D3): .3333 Scum

7/9 x 5/7 x 2/5 (town D1, town D2, scum D3): .2222 Town

7/9 x 2/7 x 4/5 x 2/3 (town D1, scum D2, town D3, town D4): .1185 Scum

7/9 x 2/7 x 4/5 x 1/3 (town D1, scum D2, town D3, scum D4): .0593 Town

7/9 x 2/7 x 1/5 (town D1, scum D2, scum D3): .0444 Town

2/9 x 6/7 x 4/5 x 2/3 (scum D1, town D2, town D3, town D4): .1016 Scum

2/9 x 6/7 x 4/5 x 1/3 (scum D1, town D2, town D3, scum D4): .0508 Town

2/9 x 6/7 x 1/5 (scum D1, town D2, scum D3): .0381 Town

2/9 x 1/7 (scum D1, scum D2): .0317 Town

44.65% chance of town win

-NLing D1 & d2-
5/7 x 3/5 (town D3, town D4): .4286 Scum
5/7 x 2/5 x 2/3 (town D3, scum D4, town D5): .1905 Scum

5/7 x 2/5 x 1/3 (town D3, scum D4, scum D5): .0952 Town

2/7 (scum D3): .2857 Town

38.09% chance of town win

We win about 17% more often by lynching the first two days, which is HUGE even for raw, inhuman, incomplete, uncaring data. Math paints a colorless picture of mafia, to be sure, but it never lies.

that being said I think it would be wise to lynch our second-highest scum suspect d2. that's kind of a gimmick, but it's one that still focuses on having a worthwhile lynch d2 while giving us an ideal d3

Uhhhhhmmmmm
Actually, I kind of like that...
Would we all individually vote our second-highest FOS, or vote who is generally the second-most FOSed? Because the first scenario lets scum be more creatively manipulative, which is, well, bad, and the second is tough to live by and easily screwed up by a lone rebel.

also I don't trust your home site as a good source of info because that's entirely dependent upon the site meta. does your home site focus on mostly setups with lots of power roles, for instance? if so, those numbers are completely irrelevant to this game.

Likewise, I dont trust your math at all because it hasn't been tested by practical application.
Theory math sucks.

~Mas Y

the mathematical probability of certain events happening is literally half of the entire basis on which the balance of mafia games is based (the other half is that town is, on average, not that good). you're arguing that town should do something that is objectively not in their best interest when you have direct evidence for why that's the case right in front of you

Thats not direct evidence dipshit thats fucking theoritical math.

~Mas Y

1) You are made of theoretical mathematics
2) This is an incredibly lame response
3) This is not the same head as earlier; this is Mas, and I find it suspicious that Mas

really likes this idea

to the point of personally insulting its detractors with the classical Romantic complaint of "math isn't even real".

Here it is:
1: What is your preferred faction?
2: What would you say you bring to the game that others don't?
3: Tell me a bit about your username, signature, and/or avatar.

1) Mafia, duh. It's so much more fun to be a wolf than a sheep. I hatehate

hate

being third parties because I get the paranoia of Mafia combined with the helplessness of town.
2) A basal understanding of Bayesian scumhunting
3) "Comparing Realities" is a shortening of the phrase "Comparing reality to its alternatives, and choosing the former", which is the job description of a rationalist. Reality changed to realities because I'm a big proponent of Everett Branch Theory. The mortal, earthly profoundness of this statement, in my opinion, is eclipsed only by the statement "The statement 'X' is true if and only if X." My username is my town motto. My signature is my scum motto. And my avatar is a reminder to me that I and I alone am responsible for the outcome of the game. I cannot rely on anything but the unreliability of others. L is dead.

We're not No Lynching Days 1 and 2. The reason scum lynches on D1 are uncommon are because of the higher ratio of Town:scum. Even if we're wrong the lynches thin out the suspect pool and give us info to work with.

P.S. Why are so many people switching over to Death Note avatars these days? Did everyone just binge the series at the same back-to-school time or something?

R.I.P Deathnote on Netflix, nobody got to school on time on the first of September

I guess I'll add those.
4: What is your experience with Mafia?
5: Who here have you played with before?

4) It seemed like a fun hobby. This is my third real game. I lost the first as town because I was bad, and lost the second as the traitor to two Mafia who lynched me because I was too towny, goshdarnittoheck. That win belongs to them, not me.
5) I technically played with BTD6 before, but he broke the game before I could play. I've actually been stalking Alchemist for quite some time now IRL. Curvy ears, wriggly elbow skin, bones full of marrow, just a great all-around human being.

[Comparing Realities]

So my main question for now, the one I'll be looking into later in a Mas ISO predating my previous post: did they appear to know this was a bad idea or not?

[keyenpeydee]

I changed my avatar now, Happy?

[BlackStar]

@key Nope, I never put my novel online

[xyzzy]

Comparing Realities, you misunderstood my reason for RVS voting keyenpeydee; my reasoning was that the other wagon happening at the time was just a wagon for the sake of wagons, whereas keyenpeydee had done one very slightly scummy thing. he had a minutely higher chance of being scum than rb did at the time. if I didn't feel like pushing a wagon of some sort, I would've voted for someone without any votes on them.

other than that, I really like that post.

[Gamma Emerald]

CR, you missed the point of post 26. I have the same thoughts as you.

[rb]

I'm not reading these walls or this math. The best way to play is to find and lynch scum and to facilitate such discussion. Gimmicks can work, but there's no point being insistent about them if others don't want to do it.

Still don't see a reason to unvote the Mas slot. I think key is probably town, as well as Alchemist.

[rb]

Xyzzy is probably not scumbuddy with key.

[rb]

I skim-read CR's wall, I don't like it.

Gut read as scum.

[callforjudgement]

Vote Count

Mas y Menos

(3): rb, keyenpeydee, xyzzy

rb

(2): BTD6_maker, Comparing Realities

Comparing Realities

(2): Gamma Emerald, Alchemist21

keyenpeydee

(1): BlackStar

Not voting

(1): Mas y Menos

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

[Gamma Emerald]

@rb: you are the last one who hasn't answer my RQS set. Could you please do that?

[rb]

Here it is:
1: What is your preferred faction?
2: What would you say you bring to the game that others don't?
3: Tell me a bit about your username, signature, and/or avatar.
My answers:
1: I would have to say town because the game feels more relaxed.
2: I bring a sense of humor I would say is nigh unrivaled.
3: My username is an old idea of a Pokemon Emerald remake. My signature is a quote from a webcomic, and I find the quote works really well here.

And about those wagons, I have seen votes meant to bait reactions on EpicMafia plenty of times. It's not only about successful wagons.

1. Town
2. Skeletor
3. redbaron, NA, skeletor

[rb]

What's the point of these silly questions?

[xyzzy]

I think it's just meant to provide a common baseline of information about everyone? it doesn't seem too useful to me, but I can see the appeal it might have to some.

[Alchemist21]

Xyzz, could you please answer CR's question about your 37?

UhhhhhmmmmmActually, I kind of like that...Would we all individually vote our second-highest FOS, or vote who is generally the second-most FOSed? Because the first scenario lets scum be more creatively manipulative, which is, well, bad, and the second is tough to live by and easily screwed up by a lone rebel.

[BlackStar]

What's the point of these silly questions?

I think we should all vote for key

[BlackStar]

Didn't mean to quote that

[xyzzy]

Xyzz, could you please answer CR's question about your 37?

UhhhhhmmmmmActually, I kind of like that...Would we all individually vote our second-highest FOS, or vote who is generally the second-most FOSed? Because the first scenario lets scum be more creatively manipulative, which is, well, bad, and the second is tough to live by and easily screwed up by a lone rebel.

tbh I'm not sure what the best way to handle figuring that out is, and it's complicated by the fact that, ideally, it should happen without the scum being able to fully determine who everyone thinks the most scummy person is (which could be used to make night kill decisions). my instinct is to say the former without anyone directly revealing who their primary suspect was for the day until day 3. basically, if we're all sufficiently cagey about the precise order of our reads lists throughout the first two days, I don't think it'll be as possible for scum to manipulate the results.

[keyenpeydee]

What's the point of these silly questions?

I think we should all vote for key

Why??

[Gamma Emerald]

If we still do reads lists, I suggest we generalize (town/null/scum) and randomize.

[xyzzy]

I agree, except I'd suggest just listing people in those categories in alphabetical order (that way, there's no possibility that the randomization isn't truly random), and maybe get rid of the null category, since otherwise the number of people in each group will be really tiny.

[Mas y Menos]

Comparing Realities is the only one pinging me right now:

VOTE: Comparing Realities


I have town on Alchemist, Rb, XYZ.
Rest Null.

Also Alchemist, I think this continues the trend of us being same alignment

~Mas Y

[BlackStar]

What's the point of these silly questions?

I think we should all vote for key

Why??

It's just a gut feeling

[Gamma Emerald]

@CR: I have to say, next time, USE A SPOILER TAG.

[keyenpeydee]

Comparing Realities is the only one pinging me right now:

VOTE: Comparing Realities


I have town on Alchemist, Rb, XYZ.
Rest Null.

Also Alchemist, I think this continues the trend of us being same alignment

~Mas Y

You're basically voting CR because his whole post is about you. I didn't read it well but from what I read, It's all about you.