Mafiascum.net

Gaspode wrote:Important stuff:
1. According to last night's investigation, there's an 85% chance that Leo is innocent. I need to look over the accusations, etc. to make sure I'm right.

Hear hear.

Gaspode wrote: By the way, where did he claim my role? I searched for his posts, and he seemed to only claim normal cop.

Precisely. I shall read again and look for the player who tried to sell that crap to the town.

I think the whole is leo a cop or not confusion came about like this, and until I say so any statements that aren't in ()'s I've tried to make statements of fact or deduced from fact, not my opinions:

Leo claimed that God was scum, (correct) and was very brief about it. He then later said he was a cop. Didn't say anything about any modifications or whatever, later we assumed that was becuase he couldn't talk about it. Didn't post for a long while and was unusually quiet (why, not sure we know.) So...somebody (can't remember who) said that oh this looks like the cop role I designed whose accuracy goes downhill. So I investigate Leo, and find out that Leo's role wasn't designed by who we thought, but by Bloojay instead. Hmm, this was peculiar.

So now we know that Leo doesn't actually have the cop with decreasing accuracy. It looks like now that Gaspode does. This still doesn't contradict with the claim that Leo made, since he only claimed to be a normal cop. (But what's a game of designer mafia with a normal cop, I wonder??) So, Leo has some version of a role that bloojay made. Fine, problem is the only one of those roles we know about is the cult recruiter one.

What does this mean now? Gaspode, whose results I'd tend to trust say he's 85% likely to be innocent. That's a pretty high boost in Leo's favor. And if innocent, he's probably a cop. Handy role for the town to have. What we need is for Bloojay to come back and say what the other roles he made were, and such. And, assuming that he tells the truth, if there's no sort of role that could have cop info then well Gaspode got a bad roll of the random number generator and got bad info, and Leo knew God was scum because of the inability to convert mafia. Assuming that the cult recruiter that bloojay designed has that ability, unless it's just standard.

So what are the possibilities:

-Leo is some form of cop and Gaspode got a right hit, and either bloojay's lying or did submit a pro town coplike role. Leo knew God was scum because as a cop he got a correct id.

-Leo is a cult recruiter, Gaspode got an unlucky false result. Leo knew God was scum because he couldn't recruit him. Bloojay is telling the truth.

-They could both be lying and Leo and Gaspode could be any combination of scum or other roles (not likely, just had to put it as a possibility, with non-zero probability).

My take on this (here's where my opinions come in). I tend to trust Gaspode's results. He's done well in the past, and while 85% is lower than I'd like it's still pretty darn high certainity of being right. Now, if Norinel is scum, as Gaspode says, than the fact that Norinel was the very first one to point the votes towards Leo today. Nice way of putting supision off yourself and onto someone with an iffy role (in other words we haven't had a confirm as to whether Leo really is a pro town and cop or not).

So the fact that Gaspode found that both Leo is good (assuming the cult recruiter doesn't by default always appear to be innocent...which would be a really powerful role. eek.) and Norinel is scum appear to support each other by Norinel's vote and statements today.

So...*deep breath* sorry for this being so long. Wanted to put everything out there. After all of this I will for now give Leo the benifit of the doubt (Bloojay, please post on the roles you made!) and go after the confirmed mafia, Norinel.

Is anyone reading a word I'm saying?

willows: Leo never explicitly claimed an ADD cop-like role. He claimed cop, Fuldu assumed he was the ADD cop from his lack of posting, and he posted again without addressing it. He either wasn't paying attention, or he accepted it, or he's lying. The mental certainty is Fuldu's on Nanook.

Victoria: It's in my synopsis, post 253 to be exact.

Darkblade:

Leo: I summarized the posts that create the case against you in my last post.

FrogGurl: Gaspode's done well in the past? He's shared two results: Me guility and Leo innocent, neither of which are confirmed yet.

This is bizzare and enjoyable game.
I Havn't been much active today - exam tomorrow(real time)
My best guess is to vote : Leonidas - just too much chance that he is cult leader.
Everything would be simpler if we didn't have innocent result and 1 correct investigation.

Nice summary post, frogurl. Except for the thing about Gaspode doing well in the past.

Given the logic chain (innocent investigation, successful investigation...), ie, the whole tangled mess, I have to switch to "follow the cop", I think.

Oh!
Wow thanks for pointing that out Norinel. I could have sworn it was you...I will go look again

Victoria,
sorry for the confuse, I make a mistake. that message is written by fuldu at post 253.

fos: victoria for her/his suspicious attitute towards my quote.....

and cult leader meaning someone who can chage the target he choose to become another mafia? or he is on his own side? if he is mafia too, why he want to lynch his own mafia buddy?

not voting anymore before the questions is answered.

Cults are usually a different evil group than mafia, BlueSin.
That's like asking why an SK would want to lynch a mafia or vice versa.

ps. away till 16th

Nobody said Leo claimed the ADD Cop role. But when Fuldu claimed it for him, Leo never denied it until after Gaspode came out. He let us believe he had Fuldu's role until he knew he couldn't use that cover any longer. It's a .

I don't have a problem with lynching Norinel, but I really think we should lynch Leo first. Cults are bad business. We do not have the luxury of giving him the benefit of the doubt, as each day we give him a pass is another opportunity for him to turn somebody against the town. What if you were recruited, Gaspode? You can see how easily people like Victoria will follow you, apparently hardly having read the thread. Following a Cop is fine, but if that Cop was turned against the town, we would be in a Bad Situation.

It would certainly help clear this up if bloojay would tell us about the roles he submitted.

Mike Amok wrote:Nobody said Leo claimed the ADD Cop role. But when Fuldu claimed it for him, Leo never denied it until after Gaspode came out. He let us believe he had Fuldu's role until he knew he couldn't use that cover any longer. It's a

lie of omission

.

Correct. I know I certainly believed that Leo had the ADD cop role, and it is rather curious that he didn't deny it. Would have actually been helpful knowledge if he had denied it, now that I think about it. "No, I'm not the ADD cop, but I'm another cop." Would have let the town know that there were two cops. A nice thing for us. Also would have given credibility to Leo's later guity/innocent reports, because there wouldn't have been the question of "How sure are we that he's right?", etc.

Hmm. My investigations from last night don't shed any light on this debate...looked at someone completely unrelated, unfortuinately.

IF we do have a cult recruiter, that is bad news and he should be disposed of ASAP. Unless he's like a GF, and comes up innocent to invesitgations...it just seems contradictory that Leo would be both the recruiter and come up innocent. Hmm. So, do we lynch a "cop" in hoping he's not? Or go after a known scum. Oy.

Wish bloojay would come back and say something...grr.

MOD: Can we get a vote count?

Pulling off my vote until we can get things figured out...namely go after the known mafia (Norinel) or the rumored to be cult recruiter but claimed innocent (Leo).

I think things can't go much farther until we hear from bloojay's replacement.

Quick unofficial vote count, 7 to lynch:

Norinel (5)- Darkblade, Gaspode, Victoria, mneme, Totem
Leonidas (2)- Norinel, Mike Amok
FrogGurl (1)- Leonidas

*bump* 3 days since the last post. Oy. Come on people, wake up!

I think people are waiting for Bloojay to be replaced.

Yup

I know you are, but I think you still can keep discussing without one player......

If activity keeps this low, there'll be a 24h-deadline as soon as i've found a replacement!

Yeah, FD's right. Plus let's try to avoid a deadline if we can...Since I'm not sure how well we'll figure out the Leo/Norinel thing before a replacement comes back, I've got a question for our two guys back from the dead.

Since we know what role you are (since it got published upon your death), did you guys have any fun abilities that may help us out here? At least if you think it's okay to say what they are.

Stewie claimed that the hooker role is a roleblocker back in Day 1 (Post 42). I submitted the Drama Queen, but haven't said what exactly it does.

I don' think it would be net beneficial to reveal my good role at this time.

My evil "role" was actually two interconnected roles: the Rivals. Each had a gun, didn't know each other and every night tried to kill the other. It is a good thing this role was not used for other wise we have 2 more kills per night

Fair enough. Whatever it is, Willows_Weep has it. So just the two of you know what it is now, that's certainly fine if you think that's best. Just thought I should mention what I found out last night.

Hm?
What do I have? The role that wouldn't be good to reveal?

BTW When I post here I wont be able to see anything till probably the next night/day the same time of the post.

(Darkblade, Gaspode, Victoria, mneme, Totem)
(Norinel, Mike Amok)
(Leonidas)

And, of course, a deadline. I'm in a generous mood, so it won't be too soon.

Yay!

A brief summary of events for korais: Leonidas probably has one of the roles bloojay submitted. bloojay has said that Leo's behavior is similar to his evil role. Leo has claimed a cop of some sort. Is the pro-town role bloojay submitted investigative in nature? How does his anti-town role work?

that requires that korais knows what bloojay submitted....hrm. This may still be a problem.

WW, I pegged you last night and found that darkblade designed your role. That's all. And darkblade thinks it would be better to keep that role underwraps for a bit. *shrugs*

Narninian mentioned that he learned what ages submitted when he replaced him.