Mini Normal 1775 END!

[mhsmith0]

Actually, since alone is the non CC'd PR, I'd like Riabi to go first. Riabi, you put Dier at L-1 apparently due ONLY to a NK read. That's a pretty strong move without much support behind it. You really need to explain your thoughts here to the rest of the class.

[heuristically_alone]

Did you guys forget to go to mafia training camp? You don't base votes on "who is most likely to make x kill" unless you have a really clear motivation...and I've seen literally zero of that....

There's mafia training camp? I definitely need that.

[heuristically_alone]

As far as this Dier wagon goes, I feel like the votes on it are all gross. I mean, he MIGHT be the last mafia, but some kind of convincing reasoning would be super helpful.

ninja'd: yeah, that's probably fair, at least wrt the NK. The whole "is this a fake claim" bit I did feel like needed to be thought about.

Actually, that said...

Alone, Riabi: You both said that the NK points to Dier, and that read seem to be the main basis of your votes. Why does the kill point to Dier? Since this seems to be the basis for your votes, I'm sure you can effectively explain the reasoning to us.

I'm mostly going off the fact that Dier seemed to have the biggest read for town on texcat, so he could have mistaken that to mean that he though everyone read that too.

[Dierfire]

@mhsmith0

@Dier: who among the survivors is likeliest mafia if you flip green? Based on 1591 you think it's Lowell. Still there or anyone else? I'm leaning towards you as last mafia, but I'm not sold on it yet (I'd consider Lowell and Riabi both as plausible last mafia instead). In case the wagon is wrong, I'd like to hear your voice on things.

Currently I believe that Lowell is most likely to be Mafia, although I need to check ToastyToast as well. I find it unlikely that Riabi is Mafia here but I can review that slot as well.

[Dierfire]

VoteCount 4.3

With 8 players alive, it takes

5

votes to lynch.

heuristically_alone (0):

Riabi (0):

Lowell (3):

texcat, heuristically_alone, Garmr

(L-2)

mhsmith0 (1):

Riabi

texcat (0):

Garmr (3):

Lowell, mhsmith0, Dierfire

(L-2)

Dierfire (0):

ToastyToast (0):

Not Voting (1):

ToastyToast

The deadline is in

(expired on 2016-05-03 17:00:00)

NOTES:
Prodding mhsmith0

This is an important point in the game, I think.
Is Lowell Town? If so, where is Garmr's partner?
If Lowell is Town, and we believe that Alone's reported action makes mhsmith0 clear, and we believe that balance favors Alone's claim being true, then at this point Garmr's partner is certainly not voting for Lowell. After Alone adds his vote to Garmr, Garmr drops the hammer on himself. I think that this speaks against either of the other players (Riabi, ToastyToast) being Mafia--Garmr should not have cut short the day if his partner were not voting for him already (and the last Town player was not obviously walking towards the wagon).

[Dierfire]

I think that associations between Boonskiies and Lowell, and more recently between Garmr and Lowell, point to Lowell as the last Mafia player here.

VOTE: Lowell

[Lowell]

Okay. Pretty convenient conclusion for a guy looking for a counterwagon.

[Dierfire]

For which player would you be voting in my position?

[heuristically_alone]

Diefire, would you be willing to sacrifice yourself if it meant Lowell was our lynch tomorrow?

[Dierfire]

Maybe...
If I'm lynched today I certainly prefer Lowell to be lynched next.
Let me check Riabi and ToastyToast again (give me 48 hours and I'll have a complete set of thoughts).

[Lowell]

For which player would you be voting in my position?

If I were scum, you mean? I'd also probably jump on the easiest target that wasn't me.

[Dierfire]

No, that's not what I mean, and I don't think that you think that it is.

For which player should I be voting if I am Town?

[FA_Q2]

VoteCount 5.2

With 6 players alive, it takes

4

votes to lynch.

heuristically_alone (0):

Riabi (0):

Lowell (1):

Dierfire

mhsmith0 (0):

Dierfire (3):

Lowell, heuristically_alone, Riabi

(L-1)

ToastyToast (0):

Not Voting (2):

mhsmith0, ToastyToast

The deadline is in

(expired on 2016-05-15 01:00:00)

NOTES:
I will be out of the area and unable to check in until tomorrow afternoon. I do not foresee that having any impact on the game though but do not expect any flips/VC's for the next 20 hours or so.

[heuristically_alone]

I kind of what Dierfire hammered now just to prove mod wrong. haha

[Lowell]

I don't know, guy. honestly I'm mostly out this weekend and don't feel like getting into it... i'm pretty sure this game is over, so it's pointless anyway. someone hammer.

[heuristically_alone]

Really no sense in hammering if the game won't move on til tomorrow.

[ToastyToast]

Alright, so my thing right now is that Lowell has gotten to the point where he's anti town at best. I hate having to decide if someone is bad town or scum.

Dier scum doesn't make sense to me. I need more expansion like Mhs on this one.

@Dietfire: is there something I can address with regards to your suspicion?

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: Lowell
I feel like this is the best option at this stage.

1) PoE: I'm not seeing Toast as mafia, I hate some of alone's posts but his claim is holding up... and I don't think the cases on Dier or Riabi are particularly compelling.

2) Proven mafia flips:
Boon's treatment of Lowell (the non hammer from a hammer-happy player) was weird, and Garmr's "boon almost outed the third" very well could have been this

Lowell, I faught to save you yesterday. At least unvote me so I don't get quick hammered.

But IMO Garmr's treatment sticks out more:
- day 1 strong wolf read, suddenly it went away on day 2, little interest day 3, suddenly back with a vengeance on day 4.
- mutual RVS targeting is, from what I can tell, a reasonably common wolf play.
- chainsaw defended lowell by attacking chilledtea for vote parking, see 711. Also,

...
I felt like Garmr was scum during n1 after Madonna was lynched from the way he was saying he would rather lynch Lowell based on not much, yet he still supported lynching Madonna (since it occured to me that both were probably town). And now like, I dunno, he sees an easier target (chilledtea) and suddenly drops his scumread on Lowell (who he had been tunneling all game)? To be completely fair I could see this coming from town, but it still makes me suspect him.
...

makes a LOT of sense if Garmr and Lowell are mafia together

3) That day 2 vote...

VOTE: sakura

I won't be happy until I've voted everyone! I don't have a case here, other than I believe boon and have strong townvibes on exp. So sure let's make this happen.

Normally it's really weird for two mafia to be together on a wagon at EOD like this. But this was a weird vote, and "Lowell wasn't around" is actually a completely plausible explanation for why he didn't move away from the Sakura wagon after it became clear that it was going nowhere.

4) NK motive. Probably the strongest motivation here was Lowell's, since texcat was hard after him. It's easier to "change" your read (wolf!dier) or just sit back and let the ML happen (just about anyone) than it is to shake off someone who's hard on your case. If the NK made sense at all (and I still think it was a poor kill regardless), it made sense from Lowell's slot.

5) I hate making this a reason... but it's a potentially good lynch for information. Lowell has been under fire a LOT this game... if he was town, then we can look a lot harder on how everyone has treated his wagons day by day. Without knowing that he's town, I don't know how we can fairly evaluate his interactions.

Anyway, Lowell is where I'm at. If I'm wrong, we have one more shot at it. But I don't think I'm wrong.

[mhsmith0]

Like when I was jailkeeped night one I didn't have a choose in making the kill I was strongly opposed only a idiot would have the person who the only person who was town read by the majority to make the kill in case of watcher or jailkeeper or some other role that could nab me. But we have this weird voting system that's like lynching aka majority rules gah. Hell I wanted to kill exp night one because I knew he would cast suspicion on me but boon managed to convince the other scum buddy to vote his way which is absolute bs. If I was left to take charge the scum team wouldn't be in such a horrible position but

no one listens to garmr

.

Don't even get me started on the fake jail keeper claim and nearly outing our other buddy by accident.

1) This was the "nearly outing our buddy" quote, fwiw

2) I listened to garmr... just (probably) not in the way he wanted!

[Lowell]

smith, you can't be serious. your analysis is impossibly boring and wrong

[mhsmith0]

smith, you can't be serious. your analysis is impossibly boring and wrong

Because ___? There's IMO a pretty decent amount of evidence against you, and I don't see the "Lowell is town" case beyond "town is too dumb to have had the right two wagons yesterday" and a bit of WIFOM stuff. If you think it's wrong, argue against it. "Oh it's wrong" isn't much of an argument though.

Moreover, I don't see any kind of strong case against anyone else. If you want to sell the Dier case as being correct, go for it. So far the votes on him seem to be "he talked about associations" and "because night kill". Is there much more than that? Because if that's it, I'd much rather lynch you first and then re-evaluate him tomorrow.

[ToastyToast]

Lowell has had a wagon on him every day but it has always swung at some point. The pattern is actually strikingly consistent.

-Garmr did rest his vote on Lowell on Day 1 when the wagon shifted to Madonna. Not sure if this is something inherently scummy but it does stick out to me given Garmr seemed to always go in the Lowell direction.

My question from that though is...why Lowell? Garmr kept going back to that read. With only one buddy left after boons died, would Garmr have reason to vote Lowell-scum?

Also this is more just an observation but Garmr self-lynched himself because of his scumbuddy (apparently boonskiis specifically) but I feel like Garmr would be even more annoyed if his other buddy was Lowell. Like, yikes, I can't wait to see the scum teams convos if that is the case

[mhsmith0]

Lowell has had a wagon on him every day but it has always swung at some point. The pattern is actually strikingly consistent.

-Garmr did rest his vote on Lowell on Day 1 when the wagon shifted to Madonna. Not sure if this is something inherently scummy but it does stick out to me given Garmr seemed to always go in the Lowell direction.

My question from that though is...why Lowell? Garmr kept going back to that read. With only one buddy left after boons died, would Garmr have reason to vote Lowell-scum?

Also this is more just an observation but Garmr self-lynched himself because of his scumbuddy (apparently boonskiis specifically) but I feel like Garmr would be even more annoyed if his other buddy was Lowell. Like, yikes, I can't wait to see the scum teams convos if that is the case

If it was Lowell-Garmr, then they had to have been distancing D4, trying to create the idea that it's only one or the other (or they were just that pissed off at each other I guess). I also feel like wolf chat would be potentially amusing if that was the team. I mean, regardless of what the team was I now REALLY want to see what went down night 1

I just look at the game state and go, yeah, it COULD be Riabi with Sakura bussing Boon and then just resting on laurels after that, and yeah it COULD be Dier somehow, and yeah it COULD be alone fake-claiming... but Lowell just fits together better with Boon and Garmr than anyone else.

If Lowell was town, it's also just WEIRD that Garmr was super pushy on Lowell day 1 (while Boon basically bailed Lowell out), then basically ignored him wrt voting on day 2, then pushed on Exp day 3, and only then went back to Lowell day 4. But if Lowell was mafia... then it makes sense. If Lowell is mafia, the game state makes sense overall in a way that I'm struggling to see from anyone else. It's a more minor point (and WIFOM-y), but it ALSO explains why the third mafia would have listened to Boon on N1, given that Garmr was bussing and Boon was helping Lowell out. I'm trying to think of who would inherently be inclined to listen to Boon over Garmr, when Garmr seems to be generally more persuasive, and it's either someone who doesn't like Garmr out of game, or someone Boon was friends with out of game, or someone who in game had been buddied by Boon and/or angered by Garmr.

The only slot where I can really see Boon buddying up to in a meaningful way would be Lowell's slot. I mean, I raked in the Boonie points so that's something I guess, but IIRC I wasn't much interacting with Garmr early on, and I feel like that N1 chat result would have been someone having been pissed off by Garmr... and among the living players, that sure seems like Lowell disliking Garmr's distancing/bussing and/or being grateful for Boon going to bat for him on D1.

I mean, the more I think about it, the more it makes sense, and the less I'm able to see any kind of disqualifying evidence. If such evidence exists, great, lord knows I've been wrong before and will be again. But right now I just really struggle to see Lowell NOT being partner #3.

[FA_Q2]

VoteCount 5.3

With 6 players alive, it takes

4

votes to lynch.

heuristically_alone (0):

Riabi (0):

Lowell (2):

Dierfire, mhsmith0

(L-2)

mhsmith0 (0):

Dierfire (3):

Lowell, heuristically_alone, Riabi

(L-1)

ToastyToast (0):

Not Voting (1):

ToastyToast

The deadline is in

(expired on 2016-05-15 01:00:00)

NOTES:
I'm back

[Dierfire]

@ToastyToast

@Dietfire: is there something I can address with regards to your suspicion?

This will be less than helpful, but not really! Lowell is my chief suspect, but Alone asked me whether I would be willing to bet the entire game on it, so I think that I just need to take the time to sit down and read the game over to reassure myself.

If you're bored in the meantime I guess that you could tell me who you think is the last Mafia player.