Mini Normal 1775 END!

[mhsmith0]

Only like a day left. You guys want to just no lynch it at this point? I still think it's Titus, but I wouldn't swear to it. No one seems to be much motivated to build a case for why they're town or someone else isn't. Kinda makes it difficult to see where the last wolf is hiding.

[ToastyToast]

Hey guys, sorry about not posting. I should've declared a v/la as I've been away from the inter webs all weekend. I apologize for my lack of investment recently.

I am of the opinion that a no lynch isn't the end of the world, if only because Mhsmith could be a godfather + the kills thus far haven't made much sense. That said, I'll get in another post today.

[mhsmith0]

Hey guys, sorry about not posting. I should've declared a v/la as I've been away from the inter webs all weekend. I apologize for my lack of investment recently.

I am of the opinion that a no lynch isn't the end of the world, if only because Mhsmith could be a godfather + the kills thus far haven't made much sense. That said, I'll get in another post today.

I will say for the absolute record that my night game flat-out isn't this bad. If I was final wolf, I 100% would have let texcat and lowell both survive and essentially organize each others mislynches. I mean, maybe it's WIFOM and all that for me to point it out at the time, but the texcat kill was really dumb if I were the last wolf.

I'd also suggest that the A50 kill was pretty dumb if I was the last wolf as well (though Garmr was alive at that point as well, so I suppose maybe you think he was dumb on that front instead); why would I shoot someone who "knows" that I'm a wolf for "reasons"? Like, maybe if I was cop-hunting I might have thought about it, but alone had claimed a cop clear on me, so if I was the godfather, then I'd have KNOWN that it couldn't have been a cop check by A50. Honestly, A50 pulling that stunt basically right as he was subbing into the newbie game (where, as town, he performed an atrocious tunnel on me, when I was [IMO, and the whole graveyard agreed] very obviously town) had me head-scratching about what he could possibly have been up to, but IIRC I'd figured it was related somehow.

PS If I was actually wolf than this would be BY FAR the greatest performance I've ever had. I've been alive in four days as wolf/SK and have been lynched in three of them (and barely survived the day there was a D1 mislynch). Feel free to skim my meta; my wiki lists out all of the non-turbo games I've ever taken part in (I think with links - non-activated links for off-site because the wiki editor blocks direct linking).

PPS Your thinking that the bizarre NK's point to me is IMO pretty sketchy, just as sketchy as Titus saying that same on Dier with just as little substance behind the "read". This sort of thing makes me feel better about Dier, both because he absorbed a pretty (IMO) shit wagon the previous day, and because I can't find any actual evidence of him bullshitting like this.

[mhsmith0]

EBWOP: I don't know 100% that my night game isn't this bad, but the one time I survived long enough to get a shot, I shot the cop, and had pegged him by post 100 in the game (it was a game with random N0 villa check, and his reaction to pressure on that player was pretty seer-y). So, you know, I really don't think I'd have made shots that bad, especially if it was all up to me.

FWIW, that was also the game that I cribbed the set of "wow your kill sucked" gifs, which was directed towards my final teammate in that one.

[ToastyToast]

ew, yeah too much WIFOM

[ToastyToast]

My concern with ToastyToast is that I don't see him making much of an effort to differentiate between Titus and myself. If he's Mafia here, his plan to win is essentially to coast to victory, which is consistent with his actions here.

That's because I've become disinterested.

Thoughts on Dierfire: The only reason I had a townread on the slot is the contributions made toward the Garmr lynch. This makes me lean Titus. However you've also left pretty much every lynch open, making it seem like you support x outcome. The only person I recall you having a solid townread on is smith, so that worries me.

Thoughts on Titus: Extreme lurking of the slot makes them look bad. Titus has been more active but the slot as a whole has been suspicious for a while now. Very little involvement in the scum lynches.

[Titus]

@Toasty, are you seriously thinking a Godfather when the cop that flipped is one shot?

P-edit, is there anything that you have a question for me directly? I can't do anything about the slot's behavior before me, but I can answer things and how things work. I'm pretty sure by just how things laid out that it's Diefire?

[Titus]

Godfather is explicitly not normal at the moment, ftr.

[Titus]

Roles which are explicitly Non-Normal include:
Non-Sane Cop, Blank Vig, Non-Sane or Quack Doctor, Janitor, Survivor, Lyncher, Cultist, Jester, Mafia Mason, Bus Driver, Lightning Rod, Nexus, Redirector, Framer, Vanillaizer, Beloved Princess, Arsonist, Governor,

Godfather

From the wiki.

[mhsmith0]

Godfather is explicitly not normal at the moment, ftr.

True but this game started before the switch (I believe). That said, it's IMO a pretty big reach for that to be in the game, and I suspect unbalanced.

Town: JK, UB, JOAT
Mafia: Encryptor, Goon, Godfather

I mean, I guess it doesn't matter quite as much given that the cop shot was one-time anyway, but that feels a bit scum-sided IMO. That said I haven't played many normals, so I could be wrong.

[Titus]

Godfather is explicitly not normal at the moment, ftr.

True but this game started before the switch (I believe). That said, it's IMO a pretty big reach for that to be in the game, and I suspect unbalanced.

Town: JK, UB, JOAT
Mafia: Encryptor, Goon, Godfather

I mean, I guess it doesn't matter quite as much given that the cop shot was one-time anyway, but that feels a bit scum-sided IMO. That said I haven't played many normals, so I could be wrong.

That's pretty much my point. I don't see you as GF. I don't see Toasty as scum due to the VCs. So that leaves Dierfire. Then it's just checking to make sure it's a viable team. When I saw the VC patterns and the kill choice, it's not the most ZOMG scumclaim but it makes a hell of a lot more sense than Toasty being scum.

[mhsmith0]

we have a bit less than 24 hours left, so I'll try and re-read and put some thoughts into thread before tonight. Probably no lynch is optimal (unless we all agree on the right target), although the down side is it makes it easier to quick-win on final day for the last wolf.

[Dierfire]

Here's where I am.
I've read the game multiple times. I'm still uncertain, but I don't think that I'm likely to find anything by reading again that will help me. We don't need a lynch here, so if someone is actively working on something and needs more time, then we can try again in LYLO. Otherwise, I have no powerfully compelling case to bring against ToastyToast, so it seems likely to me that we'll need to lynch between me and Titus.

VOTE: Titus

[Titus]

Who are you uncertain between? Why is "not having a compelling case" against someone the same thing as voting in MYLO? I'm only voting you because I'm confident that Mhsmith and Toasty are town. Here, you still seem to be allowing yourself an out. Why?

[mhsmith0]

Here's where I am.
I've read the game multiple times. I'm still uncertain, but I don't think that I'm likely to find anything by reading again that will help me. We don't need a lynch here, so if someone is actively working on something and needs more time, then we can try again in LYLO. Otherwise, I have no powerfully compelling case to bring against ToastyToast, so it seems likely to me that we'll need to lynch between me and Titus.

VOTE: Titus

That's pretty wishy-washy, Dier. Do you have a solid town read on Toasty, or is this just preservation?

PS Since "please work to build a solid 'last wolf' case" hasn't been successful, how about people discussing their town reads? Can we at least get that into thread?

[Dierfire]

@Titus

Presumably if you're Town, I'd need to present a fairly strong case against ToastyToast to allay your suspicions and convince you to vote for him (ToastyToast can't be lynched without your vote, in MYLO or LYLO). I have no such case, and I am unlikely to find one by reading yet again.

@mhsmith0

I don't understand the question. I felt good about both slots when we lynched Lowell. Obviously now I realize that one of them has to be Mafia, but other than that fact, I have no great insights to share. If you'd like me to go through why I was reading them as Town, I can reiterate those points. I'm leaving for dinner now, but I'll pull them together when I get back.

[ToastyToast]

P-edit, is there anything that you have a question for me directly? I can't do anything about the slot's behavior before me, but I can answer things and how things work. I'm pretty sure by just how things laid out that it's Diefire?

Ok, well part of my hesitance to agree with your case on Dierfire is that it sounds like confirmation bias. Looking mostly at the night kills and motivations for them is somewhat limiting. I tend to vote based on actions I see during the day phase. Is there any particular posts from Dier himself--not other people talking about Dierfire--that you find suspicious? Also, there is a reason I'm asking you about your thoughts on Day 5 + the Lowell lynch so I'd still like to see something about that. Kind of hard to do in hindsight but that entire day I kept thinking about Riabi's absence and if it was wrong to lynch Lowell when one slot was giving even less information.

[Titus]

P-edit, is there anything that you have a question for me directly? I can't do anything about the slot's behavior before me, but I can answer things and how things work. I'm pretty sure by just how things laid out that it's Diefire?

Ok, well part of my hesitance to agree with your case on Dierfire is that it sounds like confirmation bias. Looking mostly at the night kills and motivations for them is somewhat limiting. I tend to vote based on actions I see during the day phase. Is there any particular posts from Dier himself--not other people talking about Dierfire--that you find suspicious? Also, there is a reason I'm asking you about your thoughts on Day 5 + the Lowell lynch so I'd still like to see something about that. Kind of hard to do in hindsight but that entire day I kept thinking about Riabi's absence and if it was wrong to lynch Lowell when one slot was giving even less information.

Ok, that's not how I approach the game generally. I still haven't fully read on replacing in. I look more for indicators of what scum would NOT do and identify town. Then, fill in with what looks supsicious. Only during the early game where there's less information do I go for what's more suspicious and go that way.

I believe I did comment on the lynch there. The only reason I feel Dier wasn't lynched and the game wasn't over is because Dier flipped the lynch onto the only other viable poster in the game. If he picked my slot, people would claim it's a lurker lynch. Dier has been all about his perception here and leaving his options open today, and from what I read yesterday too.

I can go find specific posts though that demonstrate that mentality if you want.

[mhsmith0]

@Titus

Presumably if you're Town, I'd need to present a fairly strong case against ToastyToast to allay your suspicions and convince you to vote for him (ToastyToast can't be lynched without your vote, in MYLO or LYLO). I have no such case, and I am unlikely to find one by reading yet again.

@mhsmith0

I don't understand the question. I felt good about both slots when we lynched Lowell. Obviously now I realize that one of them has to be Mafia, but other than that fact, I have no great insights to share. If you'd like me to go through why I was reading them as Town, I can reiterate those points. I'm leaving for dinner now, but I'll pull them together when I get back.

The question would be, do you have something meaningful separating them NOW, or is it just "well I gotta pick someone so sure, I'll pick Titus"? And failing that, do you have a solid case on yourself as town? Because "meh I don't really have an opinion" is pretty wolfy, because it's a lot easier to honestly say "meh whatever" when you know all of the answers are wrong, and don't feel like you can effectively sell a case for the final mislynch. If you're town, you should have an opinion and want to game solve.

[ToastyToast]

@Titus: I'm not expecting you to re-read. I just don't buy that Dier is the only possible person who would have made the odd kill choices, so I was hoping to see if you had anything on his own posts that would lead you to believe he would kill certain people.

Also random thing I noticed: garmr posted a reads list pretty early day one. Lowell was a primary scum read of his wheras both Sakura Hana and Boonskiies were town reads. Hard to say if scum would straight up town read all their scum buddies or try to distribute them somewhat.

Also I think I'm going to revisit Garmr tonight because this is still stuck in my mind. I think if we're going to get any associations then it'll be via garmr and not boonskiies.

[ToastyToast]

@Titus
Presumably if you're Town, I'd need to present a fairly strong case against ToastyToast to allay your suspicions and convince you to vote for him (ToastyToast can't be lynched without your vote, in MYLO or LYLO). I have no such case, and I am unlikely to find one by reading yet again.

This makes it sound like you're voting Titus because you think it is unlikely to swing a vote on me? That's not the towniest of attitudes.

[mhsmith0]

Also random thing I noticed: garmr posted a reads list pretty early day one. Lowell was a primary scum read of his wheras both Sakura Hana and Boonskiies were town reads. Hard to say if scum would straight up town read all their scum buddies or try to distribute them somewhat.

Also I think I'm going to revisit Garmr tonight because this is still stuck in my mind. I think if we're going to get any associations then it'll be via garmr and not boonskiies.[/quote]

I suspect you're right. OTOH, maybe boon flat screwed up somewhere. Will also spend time tonight reading.

[Dierfire]

@mhsmith0

The question would be, do you have something meaningful separating them NOW, or is it just "well I gotta pick someone so sure, I'll pick Titus"? And failing that, do you have a solid case on yourself as town? Because "meh I don't really have an opinion" is pretty wolfy, because it's a lot easier to honestly say "meh whatever" when you know all of the answers are wrong, and don't feel like you can effectively sell a case for the final mislynch. If you're town, you should have an opinion and want to game solve.

If I had something meaningful separating them, I would have said so! I want to solve the game, but I am failing right now. Do you have any suggestions for how I should try to solve it? Like I said, I read the game over multiple times, and I'm still coming up with a coin toss.

[mhsmith0]

Sure. Try and imagine a situation in which it's each of the other three players as the last mafia, and try and figure out how the game state makes sense given that scenario.

The sakura/riabi/titus one seems relatively obvious to me, as I've laid it out. I need to work on the TT/dier ones a lot more to figure out if they're legit or not.

[Dierfire]

@ToastyToast

This makes it sound like you're voting Titus because you think it is unlikely to swing a vote on me? That's not the towniest of attitudes.

If I felt strongly that you were the last Mafia player, then I would vote for you regardless of whether or not I thought that I'd be able to get you lynched! My problem is that I don't have any solid indication as to which player is Mafia. All other things being equal, the fact that Titus is voting for me and expressing a strong belief that I'm the last Mafia player means that if she's Town we're less likely to win.

EDIT: Fine...