In post 87, Mathdino wrote: In post 0, Empking wrote:| T-Bone |
Belisarius |
Mathdino |
| Kaboose |
Pine |
vettrock |
| Equinox |
Scripten |
RedCoyote |
Keep in mind that our D3 lynch is absolutely not forced. I mean technically it is but we have control over it.
Suppose for now that RC gets lynched, flips whatever.
Scum kills Pine excepting shenanigans.
Then suppose we collectively decide, say, vettrock is scum.
We can lynch either of vettrock or myself and thus line up the next day's lynch.
See, if we lynch vettrock, scum has to NK me. Then we lynch Equinox and scum kills Scripten.
On the other hand, if we lynch me, scum would have to NK vettrock, then we lynch Kaboose and scum gets to choose who to kill, putting us in 3p LyLo.
We have more control over this than you'd think. Just keep in mind that in lynching RC, we admit that if T-Bone is scum, he can't be lynched until LyLo. Furthermore when we choose which side to go on (the Equinox/Scripten side or the vettrock/Mathdino side) we admit the same for Kaboose and Belisarius, respectively.
I agree we have control over who is lynched D3, but we have to make that decision earlier than D3. At D3, we are pretty much locked in.
Assuming we we lynch RC, at that point we have to select either the Equinox/Scripten side, or the vettrock/Mathdino side. Suppose for example we think Equinox is the scum. At that point we need to look at who is opposite. We have Mathdino and Belisarius. If we think Belisarius is the scummier of the two, we should lynch Equinox. This will force the scum to NK Scripten, and we will be forced to lynch Belisarius D3. If we think Equinox is scum, but think Mathdino is scummier than Belisarius, we need to lynch Scripten, even if we think Equinox is the scum. This forces the scum to NK Equinox (even if he is scum). If scum doesn't NK Equinox, we lynch the next day for the win. If scum does NK Equinox, then we are forced to lynch Mathdino to block. At this point if at least one scum has been lynch, we are in 3p LyLo. if zero scum have been lynched, we will have lost. If both scum have been lynched, we obviously will win.
So yes, we do have a limited control over who is lynched. The trick is to identify the T pattern (in any rotation) that we think has the most chance of scum, or the 7 pattern:
XXX
-X-
X--
Which can be rotated or mirror image, and has at least one scum in it. We are basically selecting 4 of the 8 possible scum locations an hoping at least one of the 4 is scum.
I'll address why lynching Pine is a bad idea next, and how it is giving up control to the scum:
If we lynch Pine, the scum then can select any square for the NK This effectively protects the square opposite. So for example they could NK T-bone:
X--
-O-
---
At this point, we can lynch anyone but RC. If we lynch RC, even if he is scum, we have:
X--
-O-
--O
Scum now can NK either across the top, or down the left column. Scum knows where they are, so they will NK the opposite or is the scum is the right middle or bottom middle in this example, it doesn't matter which direction they go, which sets them up to force our lynch and keep them from getting three in a row. We are essentially in LyLo but there are still 5 players and only 1 is scum because our only chance to win is lynching scum on that turn, or they win by three in a row.
Assuming we don't lynch the spot across from the NK, we have a choice of anyone else:
X--
OO-
---
We force their NK:
X--
OOX
---
At this point, we have selected only 2 of the possible 8 as scum. The IC is by definition town, and the scum have an open board so they are NKing town on N1. In the other example, we are forcing their NK to a specific square, which may be scum. We then need to select one of the remaining 5 to be scum. If there are two scum still alive, We have to get it right as we are in 5p LyLo, or they will NK town and have the majority. If one of the 2 of 8 that we selected was scum, we can force their NK to the square we want, with the exception of the lower right in this example. If we slect the lower right, and it is not scum, scum can NK anywhere and we are in 3p LyLo. If we select any other, we are selecting 2 squares for scum to be in since they have to block. So selecting 2/5 of which one has to be scum, which then puts us in 3p LyLo if we are wrong.
XO-
OOX
-X-
So in summary, If we lynch the IC in the center, we have to get the scum in 2/8, and then 2/5 since we have wasted our first lynch on town, and the scum choose their NK on N1. If we select a non center square, they have to use their NK on N1 on the center IC, and then we can force where their second NK is, and the space across to block, so we have to find one scum with a 4/8 chance instead of of 2/8.
