Open 30 - Fire and Ice (Game Over!) - before 470

[LoudmouthLee]

unvote, vote stewie

Stewie voted AE most of Day 1. Voting patterns hold a clue here.

[Stewie]

That makes me more likely to be his partner... how?

[LoudmouthLee]

Her partner. and scum happen to vote for each other on D1 because it's a safe vote, and makes them look good later on in the event of a lynch.

[Stewie]

If you like using that kind of logic, then I'd say it's more likely that somestrangeflea is more likely to be the other scum than myself, since he piled a third vote on AE, which would actually look good if the wagon went somewhere. I put a second vote which was to look for a reaction (which I got from you; on your second post you made a big deal about it). CTD, put the third one on, which has some more pressure on it.

I, however, disagree with the argument. It seems too much like a "too townie" argument. I vote for scum early in the game, therefore I'm scum? It's more important to look for people who posted their intentions to vote for someone, but hesitated to do so, sometimes not doing it at all. For example, both you and Crub FOSed AE earlier on the game, which makes it hard to decide between you two.

[Mert]

I've reread and I'm almost certain that the other Ice exists in {Crub, Mneme, Stewie} with Stewie being the least likely, in my opinion.

I don't buy Crub's argument that if Stewie was distancing then it was more subtle than if Mneme was and so he's more likely scum... that seems to be creeping almost toward "too townie" in some ways - he looked less like he might be blatantly bussing AE than Mneme did, so he's more likely scum? Don't buy it.

Mneme's connections yesterday and his "I think I know who's scum, but I'll tell you tomorrow" thing still ping my scumdar, but I must admit that his recent posts about Crub seem to add up and strike me as likely. I still think Mneme's a good candidate for a lynch, but right now I'm preferring a Crub lynch over a Mneme one.

As for no lynching, I think there may be some benefit in doing so today but it could also wait until tomorrow - it's certainly not essential to end the day with even numbers today. I agree that we should put pressure on those we believe are scum today and no-lynch just before deadline if we're undecided by that point. I don't think we should simply no-lynch for the sake of it though - if we can reach a consensus on who we find most scummy today then we should probably lynch them while we have the room to do so.

[mneme]

For example, both you and Crub FOSed AE earlier on the game, which makes it hard to decide between you two.

LML's behavior is actually quite interesting.

If Vendagoat hadn't claimed his kill, it would have been LML's analysis that best pointed to Autumn. But his defense of her on Day 3 raised the possibility of a superbus.

I do think LML feels more townie than Crub does.

FWIW, I wasn't doing "I know who's scum, but I'll tell you tomorrow" (though you can paint it like that if you want) -- it was more "I have some feelings for who's more townie and who's more scummy -- but I don't want to get left alive because they're wrong or killed because they're right".

[Stewie]

OK, not much activity lately. I think I'll go ahead and

vote: crub

[LoudmouthLee]

FWIW, I wasn't doing "I know who's scum, but I'll tell you tomorrow" (though you can paint it like that if you want) -- it was more "I have some feelings for who's more townie and who's more scummy -- but I don't want to get left alive because they're wrong or killed because they're right".

So, Mneme, you're playing for yourself, now for the townie faction? The town is a team, and wether we survive as a team is what matters, not if you survive yourslef (or are nightkilled).

Basically, I find the quote above extremely suspect.

[Mert]

I agree, this game seems to have stalled and I believe that is, in part, due to a lack of fresh information. Since I believe him to be most likely scum,

Vote: Crub

.

[LoudmouthLee]

I'm beginning to REALLY suspect Mert. More on this in a few.

[Crub]

I know this is WIFOM but do you really think I would defend AE like I did yesterday if I was scum? I know I'm new but I'm not

that

new. As to who is actually scum, I've got no idea.

[Guardian]

So... 5 days or so until deadline. There is one scum among you. Discuss.

---

Official Vote Count #16

Crub[2](Stewie, Mert)

Stewie[1](LoudmouthLee)


Not Voting[3] (Crub, mneme, somestrangeflea)

With 6 alive, it will take 4 to lynch!

[somestrangeflea]

I'm going with what I said in the first place.

Vote: mneme

Day three, I latched onto Autumn's obvious scumminess and pushed as hard as I could to get her lynched. And argued for less info, not more -- as while I generally think info favors the town, this is much less true in a game with one functional mafia left.

By the phrase, "obvious scumminess", you mean that you had a case lined up against AE's behaviour despite the Vendagoat WIFOM?

I've reread and I'm almost certain that the other Ice exists in {Crub, Mneme, Stewie} with Stewie being the least likely, in my opinion.

I agree, only, IMO, Crub is least likely.

[mneme]

I don't want to get left alive because they're wrong or killed because they're right".

So, Mneme, you're playing for yourself, now for the townie faction?

Did you even read what you quoted?

Seriously. How could "I don't want to get left alive" (because of wrong opinions I reveal) be "playing for myself?"

Crub: your case is very WIFOMish.

LML: curious about your case on Mert; most of mine is circumstantial.

I'm currently leaning toward crub (and as I've said before, away from Stewie and LML) as scum, but am interested in cases on Mert and SSF. Looking at my analysis in 398, I think our remaining Icescum is Mert or Crub -- Stewie was very consistently anti-AE even before we had a scum implosion, and kept on being so yesterday, while CTD's interaction with AE doesn't feel at all like a scumbuddy relationship to me (and LML's case I've already discussed in depth).

And crub? "I'd likely have been less pushy on a bus" isn't WIFOM -- it's pure strategy. Scum benefit more from a failed bus attempt than a successful one in almost all situations. Therefore, they're generally (and certainly, I, when scum) far more willing to accept failure than townies who are genuinely convinced of someone's scumminess. As scum, pushing a partner's lynch to the point where I become the leading candidate isn't great unless they're doomed anyway -- a little less pushy still breaks connections and might end up letting someone else leading the town down a blind alley. Regardless, that argument's not that important; it's not my job to analyze my posts in any case.

[Crub]

And crub? "I'd likely have been less pushy on a bus" isn't WIFOM -- it's pure strategy. Scum benefit more from a failed bus attempt than a successful one in almost all situations. Therefore, they're generally (and certainly, I, when scum) far more willing to accept failure than townies who are genuinely convinced of someone's scumminess. As scum, pushing a partner's lynch to the point where I become the leading candidate isn't great unless they're doomed anyway -- a little less pushy still breaks connections and might end up letting someone else leading the town down a blind alley. Regardless, that argument's not that important; it's not my job to analyze my posts in any case.

I don't know why you're saying this to me, that was my thoughts exactly I thought you pushed way too hard for you to be scum, when IMO it is much easier for scum to hop on and ride the bus. It's mert and stewie who disagreed with me that your push made you less likely to be scum.

[mneme]

And crub? "I'd likely have been less pushy on a bus" isn't WIFOM -- it's pure strategy.

I don't know why you're saying this to me, that was my thoughts exactly :) I thought you pushed way too hard for you to be scum, when IMO it is much easier for scum to hop on and ride the bus.

Indeed. But this was responding to your post 399.

[Guardian]

3 days...

One extension possible all game if 4 people PM me for one...
I can prod by request if you PM me asking to prod someone...
Lynch the scumz...

...

BOO!

...

[Crub]

Where'd everyone go?

LML come back and explain your suspicions of Mert.

[Stewie]

I'm also curious about LML's suspicions on Mert. I still think it's better to get crub, but he said he would follow up on that previous post, so I'd like him to do so.

[Crub]

A Crub lynch is no good It'll lead to a stewie, mneme, mert endgame and I wouldn't want to be the odd townie out in that lineup.

[somestrangeflea]

Being prodded sucks.

I wanna hear more on Mert. The conversation at the moment seems to be relying mainly on LML's suspicion of Mert, and I wanna hear that too.

[LoudmouthLee]

I've reread and I'm almost certain that the other Ice exists in {Crub, Mneme, Stewie} with Stewie being the least likely, in my opinion.

I don't buy Crub's argument that if Stewie was distancing then it was more subtle than if Mneme was and so he's more likely scum... that seems to be creeping almost toward "too townie" in some ways - he looked less like he might be blatantly bussing AE than Mneme did, so he's more likely scum? Don't buy it.

Mneme's connections yesterday and his "I think I know who's scum, but I'll tell you tomorrow" thing still ping my scumdar, but I must admit that his recent posts about Crub seem to add up and strike me as likely. I still think Mneme's a good candidate for a lynch, but right now I'm preferring a Crub lynch over a Mneme one.

As for no lynching, I think there may be some benefit in doing so today but it could also wait until tomorrow - it's certainly not essential to end the day with even numbers today. I agree that we should put pressure on those we believe are scum today and no-lynch just before deadline if we're undecided by that point. I don't think we should simply no-lynch for the sake of it though - if we can reach a consensus on who we find most scummy today then we should probably lynch them while we have the room to do so.

I'm incredibly concerned about Mert's intentions with this post... he references the "too townie" fallacy of Crub / AE / Stewie Fiasco. I am less apt to think, in this game, with scum being as careful as they are, that someone who outwardly defended AE is scum. We have two lynches, and I say we use them to the best of our advantage. Mert also tries to plant the idea of Mneme today, which is in my mind, a damning paragraph.

It really seems to me that Mert is setting up two mislynches here..and is saying that "once we mislynch Crub, since Mneme made such a nice case on him, we can just lynch Mneme and have a scum win party!"

I agree, this game seems to have stalled and I believe that is, in part, due to a lack of fresh information. Since I believe him to be most likely scum,

Vote: Crub

.

Most recently.. stalled sue to fresh information? Poo. This reeks of scum hopping onto an easy bandwagon to save his skin.

There's more, but I haven't the time. I have a small life-crisis. This should be enough to re-jumpstart convo.

Unvote, Vote: Mert

[mneme]

Bah. Prodded. (after 6 posts?). Am at Gencon, wish y'all were here. Yes, this is a phone post.

I'm not really sure which of Mert and Crub to push, but standing back doesn't help, and mert's play is much more subtle-scum than crub's.

For now, at least...

unvote (if I'm voting anyone)
vote: mert

[LoudmouthLee]

Bump to get this to the top. I want everyone to weigh in.

[Mert]

To be honest, when you said you "REALLY" suspected me, I did expect slightly more than what you've presented. Nonetheless, I understand that you've had some RL issues and address the points you have presented thus far:

I'm incredibly concerned about Mert's intentions with this post... he references the "too townie" fallacy of Crub / AE / Stewie Fiasco. I am less apt to think, in this game, with scum being as careful as they are, that someone who outwardly defended AE is scum.

Fair point, but his reasoning that Stewie is more likely to be scum because he looked "more subtle" (ie. less obviously scummy) as a

de facto

reason to suspect Stewie is still flawed and I still don't like it. I agree that scum were likely to have bussed AE yesterday, given the seeming inevitability of her death, but no reasons were posted that showed

why

Stewie was likely to have been bussing - the argument was that if he

was

doing it, he did it more subtley. Something just doesn't feel right about it and the logic remains incomplete.

We have two lynches, and I say we use them to the best of our advantage.

Are you saying you are against the previously-discussed idea of no-lynching today? Personally I have yet to have made my mind up on this issue but I'd appreciate clarification on whether that is what your post is getting at or not.

Mert also tries to plant the idea of Mneme today, which is in my mind, a damning paragraph. It really seems to me that Mert is setting up two mislynches here..and is saying that "once we mislynch Crub, since Mneme made such a nice case on him, we can just lynch Mneme and have a scum win party!"

I don't really understand this point - I have already stated that I believe the scum exists within {Crub, Mneme, Stewie} with Stewie as my outside bet of the three. What, therefore, is wrong with presenting my reasons for that belief on those who I find most scummy? Your post seems to imply that mentioning more than one suspicion at a time is "damning", yet I was still, at that point, exploring my views on various people and I presented the ideas on those two as they topped my LoS.

Most recently.. stalled sue to fresh information? Poo. This reeks of scum hopping onto an easy bandwagon to save his skin.

It was nothing more than putting my money where my mouth is - after considering my top two, I had decided that Crub sits atop Mneme and that my vote would help to confirm my position.


I find it interesting that Mneme's recent vote uses the same "subtle, therefore scummier" argument that Crub used previously. They can't both be scum, but the argument seems as flawed coming from Mneme as it does Crub.

Lee, does your point about me "hopping onto an easy bandwagon" apply to Mneme's most recent vote also? If not, what is the difference between them?