Open 30 - Fire and Ice (Game Over!) - before 470

[AutumnEvenings]

*kicks the game*

Mert and SomeStrangeFlea, don't you have anything to say? In a game with two-week deadlines, it really sucks when you go 5 days without posting.

[Crub]

Crub: do you think there's a greater than 50% chance that glork targetted AE on night 1?

I think theres a high probability, yes.

[somestrangeflea]

*kicks the game*

Mert and SomeStrangeFlea, don't you have anything to say? In a game with two-week deadlines, it really sucks when you go 5 days without posting.

Sorry, I'm not used to a game with set deadlines.

On one hand there's the highly incriminating statement from Vendagoat, but I'm

really

not feeling scumvibes from AE. I think that we're gonna see an AE lynch though, simply because of the fact that we've spent so much of today discussing her that I don't think there's anywhere else the lynch can possibly go! Like I said before, in this situation it's very easy for us to let scum to fly under the radar. The only thing I can really add is that, should AE turn up town, we really need to examine mneme and Stewie, our two hyper-voters.

[Stewie]

Hyper voters? IIRC I voted for one person today, two day one, and I wasn't even able to post the second day because it ended too quickly. Don't know about mneme though.

[somestrangeflea]

By "hyper-voters", I simply meant "voted AE from the word 'go'". In retrospect I probably should have said something which didn't imply something about the whole voting history.

[AutumnEvenings]

I'm

really

not feeling scumvibes from AE. I think that we're gonna see an AE lynch though, simply because of the fact that we've spent so much of today discussing her that I don't think there's anywhere else the lynch can possibly go!

umm...really? Look, I think your previous incarnation was pro-town, which means you are too. So think about this for a minute: If you think someone's town, you

don't

want them lynched. I realize your post was slightly ambiguous and you never flat-out called me town, which fine. But if you're even considering it, that means you should look elsewhere. We still have a few (five?) days. Mneme has more votes than I do, and I'm still highly suspicious of LoudmouthLee. I'm not about to throw in the towel just yet, and I really wish you wouldn't just opt out of scum-hunting just because there's been a lot of discussion about me.

[Mert]

In a way I feel I've said all I can say on the issue of AE. I think it's suicide for the town to allow her to live until endgame because the WIFOM on whether she was protected or is scum could be the death of us.

That said, I feel I do have a duty to re-evaluate other candidates for scum. I'll reread now and get something to you as soon as I can (it's 1am here so apologies if it's not tonight).

[Guardian]

With the day nearly over (you

are under deadline

, just under 49 hours remain, remember) you do some complex math and figure out who is voting who and how many votes that means each player has. Surprisingly, half of you are not voting, and in general your activity level makes it seem as though you are rather unconcerned that a deadline approaches....

You write down your new vote count on the back of your God sent votecount...

Irreverent bastards...

Official Vote Count #14

mneme[3](LoudmouthLee, AutumnEvenings, Crub)
AutumnEvenings[1](mneme)

Not Voting[4] (Mert, MrBuddyLee, somestrangeflea, Stewie)

With 8 alive, it will take 5 to lynch!

[AutumnEvenings]

*glares at Mert*

*sighs*

*glares at most everyone*

Come

on

guys. I really feel I've said all I can say in my defense, and I'm kind of done talking at cross-purposes with mneme, and I said what I had to say about LmL (who hasn't really responded, though I know he's been out of town), and...I can't respond to you guys' posts when you're not posting. Let's get this thing moving, please.

[MrBuddyLee]

My gut tells me Autumn and Lee are the scum. If I die tonight, keep that in mind.

[Crub]

Sorry to state the obvious but at this point I see 2 options.
Lynch AE now to avoid WIFOM in endgame. (I personally think this will bring us into lylo)
Lynch mneme now as the scummiest.
If we hit we are in an ok position, if we miss tomorrow is going to be hard work.

[mneme]

Crub: actually, I thought I looked scummier before I got a lot of pushback on the (obvious) AE lynch.

Given that level of resistance, it seems fairly clear that her partner isn't bussing her.

As it is, AFAICT, the only scummy thing I've done is strictly predicated on AE being innocent. (ie, if AE is scum, it's not that scummy).

Autum and Lee is possible. Autumn and Crub is possible. So is Autumn and someone hiding in the shadows, rilly -- but really, all of this deserves more analysis tomorrow -after- we get to see who Autumn's partner kills, because as I've said before today -- -if- Autumn is scum (I think she is), then any further analsys helps the scum more than it helps the town.

Autumn: of course you can with me, if you're town. You can win if you're dead, you know.

[Guardian]

24 hours remain...

[Mert]

I'm completely torn. I've tried my best to read AE without taking into account Venda's "revelation" yesterday and I have a feeling that if it were not for that post I would consider her to be acting in a fairly protown way - her posts are full of content and opinions and, despite the pressure she's been under all day, she's still scumhunting and putting out ideas rather than just hiding defending herself and trying to keep herself alive. I get strong protown vibes from a number of her more recent posts.

Unfortunately, I've read Glork over and over and I can't see enough in there to judge whether I think he protected AE or not. He was so tight-lipped, I can't actually get a feel for anyone I believe he protected. I can cross off a few I think he probably

didn't

protect (LmL, me, probably MBL) but beyond that I don't know, which is extremely unfortunate. Knowing Glork however, I have a feeling he put something in at least one of his posts that will subtly indicate his intentions. This is complete conjecture, but it could be that this breadcrumb was picked up by somebody who is not sharing it due to being scum. That said, he might not have done, but it's the reason I've been running myself in circles trying to get all I can from Glork's posts yesterday.

The problem is, despite my feeling that AE has shown a number of town-tells, I am

terrified

of having her alive during LyLo... I think I'd die under the weight of WIFOM. We're a good group and we've done well so far but LyLo isn't actually that far away and we now know we have no chance of a doc protect. Having AE survive to endgame just puts me in the sort of position I'd hate to be in. If AE

does

end up in endgame with me, I'll be pushing for a long day to explore a large number of options.

I'm interested by a specific part of mneme's play today - earlier I asked him about his reluctance to share his thoughts on who AE's partner might be as it's best left for tomorrow. More recently, he's said that if AE is scum then "any further analsys helps the scum more than it helps the town". Again, this intrigues me. There are no further power roles to accidentally out so what position does this put the scum in where their choice of kill is changed by more discussion and analysis? All things being equal, we're all as likely to die as the next as the scum will know we're all townies anyway. It will likely come down to a combination of a move that will confuse the town and the elimination of a threat, perceived or actual, to the town.

Now nmeme hints at having theories that he is not sharing on this very issue which seems like an attempt to draw a nightkill more than anything. Try as I might, I can't see what benefit keeping this information to yourself in the hope of not dying overnight has to the town. If you

are

killed then it's lost forever. You won't exactly be drawing a kill away from a power role, so can you explain why you feel that analysis and sharing of thoughts you have is a bad idea today? Because, frankly, I don't understand it at all right now.

On balance, I think I have to vote for AE. I've thought it through and I feel that circumstances mean that whatever her alignment, having her alive at endgame is detrimental to the town in one way or another. I personally believe that Venda did target her last night, so she's either scum or Glork's target, in my opinion. Yes, we might be losing a townie, but of all the townies we have she'd be the one I consider best to lynch. If she's scum then her posts today in defense of herself will give us tons of information to work with tomorrow too.

Vote: Autumn Evenings

.

Mod

, would I be correct in assuming that three votes will lynch at deadline if no clear majority is reached?

[Guardian]

19 hours remain...

All players who have not posted since the 48 hour mark have been prodded.

3 to lynch at deadline, first come first serve. You do have 1 extension available, 4 players must PM me requesting such for you to employ it.

[Stewie]

vote: autumn evenings

I think she's the right choice because I find it unlikely that Glork protected her. Also, if we let her live and we are wrong, then come lylo it will drive us crazy, to the point that it will be hard for us to concentrate on going after scum.

[AutumnEvenings]

vote: autumn evenings

I think she's the right choice because I find it unlikely that Glork protected her. Also, if we let her live and we are wrong, then come lylo it will drive us crazy, to the point that it will be hard for us to concentrate on going after scum.

*sigh* First, if you let me live, how would you know if it was wrong? (I mean, I can tell you it's not, but you don't believe me :p) And secondly, I'm having a hard time believing the whole "concentrate on going after scum" bit when the past two weeks have mainly consisted of me defending myself and making cases, and everyone else shrugging and going "yeah, but Vendagoat tried to kill you."

I'm just really annoyed, I guess. No one's shown me anything I've

done

that's suspicious and apparently none of my arguments or past actions are enough to outweigh the fact that I might have been targeted and might not have been protected by Glork. It's really frustrating, since I've put so much into this game.

[mneme]

This is complete conjecture, but it could be that this breadcrumb was picked up by somebody who is not sharing it due to being scum.

If this breadcrumb isn't the stuff I pointed out (which seemed to me to be negative, not positive), I certainly haven't seen it. Something to ask after the game, I guess.

Again, this intrigues me. There are no further power roles to accidentally out so what position does this put the scum in where their choice of kill is changed by more discussion and analysis? All things being equal, we're all as likely to die as the next as the scum will know we're all townies anyway. It will likely come down to a combination of a move that will confuse the town and the elimination of a threat, perceived or actual, to the town.

*Notes freudian slip* :)

To the scum, you mean?

Basically, at this point, the scum kill, since there are no power roles, is likely to be most guided by "who will be the greatest threat to the scum" (with the risk of attempted kill analysis to somewhat discourage this, but WIFOM and related confuse-a-town issues to further confuse that). Effectively, we can't rely on looking at a kill to try to figure out who the scum are -- but the scum -can- use day speculation to judge who's the biggest threat who won't just point directly to the scum by the nature of the kill.

Weighing "every townie's analysis gives us one more head to work on the problem" vs "every townie's analysis gives the scum a bit more of a tool to manipulate the town via their kill", I'm inclined to think that the latter is more important (Assuming an AE lynch today, thus discounting the influence of discussion on today's lynch) than the former.

If we were a newbie game -- with a very small number of strong players and a larger number of weak ones, there'd be more on the side of "we need everyone's input just in case they die" (because certain people would be substantial blows to the town). But as it is, throwing out info just to inform the scum kill doesn't seem like it benefits the town -- even if it's opinion info, not role info.

(Interestingly, my ideas about keeping mum on theories could be seen as much as a way of avoiding a scum kill as drawing one. But really, it's that I want them to make their kill with as little info as reasonable).

And Autumn -- I've liked a lot of your play this game, but I'm not really liking the appeal to emotion in your last few posts.

[Stewie]

vote: autumn evenings

I think she's the right choice because I find it unlikely that Glork protected her. Also, if we let her live and we are wrong, then come lylo it will drive us crazy, to the point that it will be hard for us to concentrate on going after scum.

*sigh* First, if you let me live, how would you know if it was wrong? (I mean, I can tell you it's not, but you don't believe me :p) And secondly, I'm having a hard time believing the whole "concentrate on going after scum" bit when the past two weeks have mainly consisted of me defending myself and making cases, and everyone else shrugging and going "yeah, but Vendagoat tried to kill you."

I'm just really annoyed, I guess. No one's shown me anything I've

done

that's suspicious and apparently none of my arguments or past actions are enough to outweigh the fact that I might have been targeted and might not have been protected by Glork. It's really frustrating, since I've put so much into this game.

Not wrong about you, wrong about the person who we actually lynch. And I think you basically answered yourself on your second point: we are saying that Vendagoat tried to kill you, but we are not doing it out of spite; we are truly conflicted (or at least I am). If you are not scum, and we let you live, there'll still be that factor going against us.

[somestrangeflea]

The trouble is, if we don't lynch AE today, we're going to spend tomorrow discussing the exact same thing we're discussing today. And I feel that a change of topic would be much more useful to the town than the continuation of an already drawn-out discussion.

On the other hand, I just can't see very many scumtells from AE, and so I'm not sure whether to vote for mneme (because, let's face it, today's lynch is going to go one of two ways).

Votecount is currently 3-3, so if no-one else votes,

mneme

is dead.

I'll return with my decision later today.

[MrBuddyLee]

Nope. You've tried to become the tipping point on Xyzzy, who I firmly believe is pro-town

*snickers*

I find it likely that our chivalrous Glork protected Autumn. Because he's too mulish to have protected me, the obvious and correct choice.

Evaluating Autumn independent of that fact, I don't understand why she's voting mneme instead of LML. Her cases against the two are quite different and Lee's looks more incriminating to me. I also don't read either of her analyses and really get the sense she strongly feels either of her targets is scum. "nothing protown about him" is somewhat weak of a case, and it's the same thing she said about Stewie and mneme.

Autumn, I'm going to gamble that Glork targeted you AND that your Iciness also protected you from the evil Goatseller. I'll check the thread again in the morning to see if you have a compelling clarification of why you're voting mneme and not LML.

I'm suspicious of Lee--he claims to find me significantly scummy even though he unvoted me at the end of D1--I'm guessing he had a read then that I was town and decided to go after a crosslynch instead.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: Autumn

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, Lee's reasoning for voting mneme is thin and dreadful. I have a hunch that if we lynch all three of them we'll win, and at this point I'd almost rather lynch LML first for his overt sleaziness.

[MrBuddyLee]

maybe someone who is actually scum will become more apparent

This statement almost seems to assume Autumn's township.

FOS: Crub

[Crub]

maybe someone who is actually scum will become more apparent

This statement almost seems to assume Autumn's township.

FOS: Crub

As I've said a few times I don't think AE is scum. I'm not assuming AE is townie, I'm saying that AE hasn't done much to warrant being suspected as scum. If it wasn't for the goat's explosion I don't think we would even be considering an AE lynch.