Open 25 - Jester Mafia (Jester Wins/Mafia 2nd) - before 462

[Battle Mage]

what by claiming scum? lol

[JDodge]

Open 15.

[Romanus]

Vote Count:

Lawrencelot- 3 (Lawrencelot, YogurtBandit, ThAdmiral)
gorckat- 2 (JDodge, Sir Tornado)
Battle Mage- 1 (WeyounsLastClone)
No Lynch- 1 (Battle Mage)

Not voting (3): Qman, pickemgenius, gorckat

6 to lynch.

[gorckat]

I just skimmed the start and end (hoping for a postgame look at the gambit) of Open 15- the difference between Vengeful and Jester is a townie getting lynched Day 1 gets the Vig kill...I don't see how the play there sheds any light on the play here.

Two different setups with very different mechanics.

My gut is telling me that someone advocating for letting a claimed scum/jester live is the other scum.

FoS: JDodge

Vote: No-Lynch

[JDodge]

Hey! Guess who missed the point entirely?

When you read it, notice that the person who was most vocal about the GF claim was the real GF.

[gorckat]

I did see that.

Are you saying you should lynch me because I've been vocal?

[JDodge]

No, I'm trying to prove that Lawrence could easily be townie and thus prove your logic wrong.

[gorckat]

Gotcha.

1) There is a substantial difference between Vengeful and Jester (see my post 103).
2) The mafia don't know if Lawrence is the Jester anymore than we do. They only know if he's scum or not. Since they can't be certain he's a Jester, they have to NK him to avoid losing the game tomorrow when we all should lynch him.

I firmly believe that the mafia will throw the game away if Lawrence is the Jester and they let him live. I don't think making a jester/scum claim is in any way a +EV gambit in this setup.

If someone has an example of scuh a gambit in a

Jester

game and it

worked

, then I'll consider revising that stance, but as it is, we don't lose not lynching Lawrence.

[YogurtBandit]

Unvote, Vote Gorckat

[JDodge]

If someone has an example of scuh a gambit in a

Jester

game and it

worked

, then I'll consider revising that stance, but as it is, we don't lose not lynching Lawrence.

If there was such an

example

of a

Jester

game, then I would

show

you. No need to get all

angry

and start using

italics

in excess like I

normally

do.

[gorckat]

I'm not angry- sorry if I gave that impression

I'm just saying a failed Vengeful gambit isn't equivalent to what we have now.

[JDodge]

I'm not angry- sorry if I gave that impression

I'm just saying a failed Vengeful gambit isn't equivalent to what we have now.

Fine then, we'll go with your poorly-designed strategy. When we hand the game to the scum, you will be hoping you'd listened to me.

[Sir Tornado]

JDodge:

Why would a Townie false claim? What is the logic behind it?

[JDodge]

JDodge:

Why would a Townie false claim? What is the logic behind it?

Did you read the game I referenced, and read my posts at all?

[Battle Mage]

JDodge:

Why would a Townie false claim? What is the logic behind it?

^This. I didnt read the game, but i have read your posts, and i dont really understand. It would be very helpful if you could simply explain the example you have given in a few sentences.

[JDodge]

Basically, a townie claimed GF, and the real GF was the one who went on and on and on about it. If we (I) had

listened

to said townie, we would've won.

[Qman]

What reasoning? You've made statements, but I haven't seen this thing you call 'reasoning'.

1) Lawrence claimed jester/scum
2) The jester can beat the mafia
3) If Lawrence is alive Day 2, he's no threat to the mafia
4) If Lawrence is alive Day 2, he's scum

That's my basic thought process on the matter. If the scum want to lose, they let a jester live.

I feel like a broken record...

That (Without specifing a person) was the theory i was mulling over in my earlier game.

We have two people we are in general thinking are the jester, the mafia has to try to NK the jester asap so they don't lose, so the rest of your post follows.

[Qman]

damnit all

EBWOP:


That (Without specifing a person) was the theory i was mulling over in my earlier game.

should be


That (Without specifing a person) was the theory i was mulling over in my earlier post.

[Sir Tornado]

What reasoning? You've made statements, but I haven't seen this thing you call 'reasoning'.

1) Lawrence claimed jester/scum
2) The jester can beat the mafia
3) If Lawrence is alive Day 2, he's no threat to the mafia
4) If Lawrence is alive Day 2, he's scum

That's my basic thought process on the matter. If the scum want to lose, they let a jester live.

I feel like a broken record...

That (Without specifing a person) was the theory i was mulling over in my earlier game.

We have two people we are in general thinking are the jester, the mafia has to try to NK the jester asap so they don't lose, so the rest of your post follows.

I think Gorckat's logic is wrong. What if they try to reverse the situation with us and not NK the jester, but an innocent townie? Then, the onus to not lose shifts upon us rather than the mafia, and we would grow vary of lynching Lawrencelot.

If I were scum, my strategy would be to keep the jester alive as long as possible (at least until day 3), because so long as he survives, the scum automatically get protection by doubt.

[Qman]

Mmm maybe Tornado, but the are also taking a huge risk at losing to a jester lynch when they can remove the threat of a loss through that manner immediately. I'll have to think about it some more, right now I'm straddlin the fence on this idea.

[Sir Tornado]

Mmm maybe Tornado, but the are also taking a huge risk at losing to a jester lynch when they can remove the threat of a loss through that manner immediately. I'll have to think about it some more, right now I'm straddlin the fence on this idea.

The question is, will the town risk it?

I won't.

[gorckat]

Mmm maybe Tornado, but the are also taking a huge risk at losing to a jester lynch when they can remove the threat of a loss through that manner immediately. I'll have to think about it some more, right now I'm straddlin the fence on this idea.

The question is, will the town risk it?

I won't.

(Non-angry, strictly for emphasis italics ahead )

Its not a risk the

town

is taking- it is 100% the

scum

.

They

control Lawrence's fate. If

they

let him live,

they

are asking to lose the game.

They can avoid losing if the kill him, and while the town would be better off knowing a Jester lynch won't auto-lose, the scum are still in the hunt themselves.

[ThAdmiral]

If the town must lynch someone today, then hit me and go after Lawrence tomorrow if he lives. I'm not the Jester and it won't lose the game if I hang.

I thought I was still voting yoghurtbandit, but this sounds like a better idea.

vote: gorckat

[JDodge]

Unvote

Need to rethink my plan.

[WeyounsLastClone]

I think it's very possible both Lawrence and Sir Tornado are scum. Sir Tornado tries to seed doubt now to protect Lawrence tomorrow.

If the Jester is NK'ed, will it be specified by the mod? Or is it just said that a townie is killed, leaving us in doubt if the Jester is killed or not.

I think my vote for BattleMage is a bit unwarrented now, so I'll

unvote

.