Mini 447 -Game Over

[pickemgenius]

EBWOP: should be just over half, i really am tired crapless, still nothing to be worried about, nothing ever comes unless pressure was applied.

my third vote was only half of what was needed for a lynch

[SpinWizard]

FoS: thethirdnail

[Haschel Cedricson]

With 9 left, it's only 5 to lynch now.

Gah. I was so eager to react to the new development of the modkill that I didn't recalculate the Lynch Number.

I'm keeping my vote where it is for reasons explained earlier, but now I understand the bandwagon against me. I suppose that did make me look scummy, and my only defence is poor play, which I am aware is not a very good one.

Oops.

[Arkest]

I wanted discussion, which has come, and at that time ryan was still in the game, my third vote was only half of what was needed for a lynch.

What? Was your "Well, I'll be danged." not in response to the mod-kill? Ryan was quite dead when you made that post.

I may be tired crapless, but I don't get where i'm complaining about the bandwagons.

Well you voted for Herschel based on him jumping on the thirdnail bandwagon. That indicates to me that you probably don't approve of it.

And what the heck SpinWizard, a FoS with no explanation? And does that mean you consider him less worth a vote than your "random" vote on Blue Zebra?

[SpinWizard]

oh i forgot,

unvote

no, FoS means i am suspitious of thethirdnail but dont want to vote him yet as i want to see how he plays in the folowing pages before saying whather he is worthy of my vote.

[thethirdnail]

I don't understand why you are suspicious of me. the only evidence so far is that I voted for ryan.
I may not have used the best reasoning for doing so, but that leaves me guilty of poor play, not of being mafia. And that makes sense considering this is the first time I've played.

[pickemgenius]

What? Was your "Well, I'll be danged." not in response to the mod-kill? Ryan was quite dead when you made that post.

yea, and still then he was in no harm of being lynched.
When HC put him at L-1 we both promptly unvoted.

Well you voted for Herschel based on him jumping on the thirdnail bandwagon. That indicates to me that you probably don't approve of it.

You voted him too.
Infact we both were typing at the same time on that subject, then you reitterated what I typed in a post a little bit later.

Not sure where you where going with that.

[pickemgenius]

I don't understand why you are suspicious of me. the only evidence so far is that I voted for ryan.

I don't call a random vote on ryan before we knew his status as evidence.
Nobody else really should either.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Any townie had reason to suspect me via Hachel's logic.

I don't believe it's good logic to presume one of those who voted for ryan (a confirmed townie) is a definite mafia.

Wait, which of these is it?

I still believe in my gut that it's either pickemgenius or thethirdnail, but pickemgenius has does an adequate job of defending himself, whereas thethirdnail has said nothing to convince me otherwise.

Vote: thethirdnail

[Haschel Cedricson]

I don't call a random vote on ryan before we knew his status as evidence.
Nobody else really should either.

It's more evidence than a vote on anyone else, though. We're dealing with at least one more Mafia member and probably an SK, although I suppose it could be just a lucky vigilante. When a wagon started on ryan, I don't think it's too much of a stretch to assume that at least one of the remaining scum could have been in on it.

For what it's worth, pickem and I were voting for ryan before thethirdnail turned it into an official bandwagon. This reinforces my above vote. The rest of you can take this as you will.

[Y.C]

Hi everyone.
Sorry for the lack of posts, I (unexpectedly) had no i/e for a while.



thethirdnail, why did you vote for ryan?

[Arkest]

I don't call a random vote on ryan before we knew his status as evidence.
Nobody else really should either.

I'd agree with this, but 2 of the 3 who voted ryan are saying it's likely of them is scum! I don't understand why they are using that logic. There is also the fact you voted thirdnail right after the modkill, why did you do this?

And yes I had voted him also, but my vote was 2 out of 6 to lynch, yours was 3 out of 5 to lynch, different situations I'd say.

[Haschel Cedricson]

I'd agree with this, but 2 of the 3 who voted ryan are saying it's likely of them is scum!

For clarification, I think that either pickemgenius or thethirdnail are scum, and I am not. The reason I suggested the possibility of me being scum is that any other player using the same logic I am using would be forced to include me as well, and I wanted to bring that up before any other player (particulary thethirdnail and pickemgenius) had a chance to point out the "huge flaw in my logic."

[Arkest]

I understand what you are saying, I just don't agree with the logic that one of you must be scum because you had a vote on someone who turned out to be town.

[Haschel Cedricson]

I understand what you are saying, I just don't agree with the logic that one of you must be scum because you had a vote on someone who turned out to be town.

Fair enough.

If it had just been me and pickem, I wouldn't have done anything. Three's a bandwagon, though, and I think the odds are good that scum may have wanted to jump on it.

[thethirdnail]

A couple questions: how many mafia are likely left? Or I guess a better question is: what scenarios remain? Is the mafia likely in the minority?

I'm having trouble defending myself, though I feel if the only evidence anyone has for suspecting me is that I "may have started a bandwagon by voting for ryan." I understand that a lead is better than nothing, but I'm telling you I'm not mafia, and I'd hate to prove you wrong by having the mod tell you another townie was wastefully killed.

I feel I can only persuade anyone by
A) proving someone to be more likely to be scum
B) prove I am a townie

Neither are fully possible with the information available.

Evidence:
Ryan was a townie
3 were ready to lynch him before that was confirmed

After the above discussion, I'm starting to think noone among those who voted for ryan are scum.

[pickemgenius]

I understand what you are saying, I just don't agree with the logic that one of you must be scum because you had a vote on someone who turned out to be town.

That sounds familiar eh , look how that turned out...

[Haschel Cedricson]

After the above discussion, I'm starting to think noone among those who voted for ryan are scum.

Alright, I'll bite. Let's assume that you, pickemgenius, and myself are in the clear. Where does that lead us?

Relph showed up just long enough to vote for thethirdnail and hasn't been seen since. This was before the modkill, so this was probably just a random vote. However, Relph didn't SAY "random vote" or give any "wacky" reason; he just did it. I have no idea what any of this means.

Y.C claims that he had no Internet access. His last post prior to the one in this thread was over a week ago, so I'll give him that.

Remember Poison Ivy? I don't, because Poison Ivy hasn't done a single thing. I'm not sure if PI is lurking or just forgot about the game, but I'm going to

Vote: Poison Ivy

.

The three people doing most of the talking right now are me, Arkest, pickemgenius, and thethirdnail. Is it possible the scum are just letting the town destroy itself?

[thethirdnail]

Haschel, I've been thinking about the scenarios, and you echoed one of my thoughts.

Poison ivy hasn't said anything. Can we prod him to chime in? Like: if you don't offer something, we're going to vote you out or at least close?

YC hasn't voted, but it seems he's considering evidence. So I'd say he's sitting comfortably under the radar.

Spin wizard is in a similar spot.

That leaves arkest, pickem, haschel, and myself.

At this point if I vote for any of those 4 and he turns out to be townie, suspicion would def. fall on me. Thus, I UNVOTE until we discuss this a little more.

For the record, of those 4, I think arkest is the least likely to be mafia.

[Arkest]

A couple questions: how many mafia are likely left? Or I guess a better question is: what scenarios remain? Is the mafia likely in the minority?

My working assumption is 1-2 more mafia and 1 SK. There could be more exotic scenarios but I doubt it and it's pointless to speculate about them until there is evidence for them. And I certainly hope the mafia is in the minority, if they ever attain a majority they have pretty much won.

I'm having trouble defending myself, though I feel if the only evidence anyone has for suspecting me is that I "may have started a bandwagon by voting for ryan." I understand that a lead is better than nothing, but I'm telling you I'm not mafia, and I'd hate to prove you wrong by having the mod tell you another townie was wastefully killed.

The "I'm not mafia, you are lynching a townie" defense is pretty much always a bad idea.

I feel I can only persuade anyone by
A) proving someone to be more likely to be scum
B) prove I am a townie[/quote]Pretty much the only way for you to prove "B" is to die, so I'd suggest working on "A".

Is it possible the scum are just letting the town destroy itself?

Oh certainly, but the more you post, the more other players can judge your alignment, so pro-town players should have no fear of posting.

I understand what you are saying, I just don't agree with the logic that one of you must be scum because you had a vote on someone who turned out to be town.

That sounds familiar eh , look how that turned out...

Are you threatening me with a night kill?

For the record, of those 4, I think arkest is the least likely to be mafia.

Ack, please don't help the mafia by telling who you don't find suspicious.

[thethirdnail]

i mean...um....Arkest is mafia! look at his velour track suit, and that briefcase hand-cuffed to his wrist!

for now, I'm going to

VOTE: Poison Ivy

, to hopefully spur him into the discussion.

[thethirdnail]

alas, i have left Relph out of my analysis.

Relph has voted (presumably randomly) for me, and that has been the lot of his correspondence.

[Blue Zebra]

alas, i have left Relph out of my analysis.

Relph has voted (presumably randomly) for me, and that has been the lot of his correspondence.

You left me out of your analysis too.

[Arkest]

That all you have to say Blue Zebra, we haven't heard anything from you since your random vote?

[Blue Zebra]

For one thing, I don't understand why pickemgenius was voted for by thethirdnail and FoSed by Arkest.