433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over


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Post Post #766 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:00 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Okay, reading the game anew with the precondition that kilmenator is likely town. I'll try to only point things I don't believe I have pointed out (or if I do, because I see some extra significance in it).

1.)
I think it might be notable that some players seem to be ignoring certain lurkers and not others. For example, at the time this post by Superstring91 was made, I believe gorkcat had far fewer posts than thorgot. In fact, at this point in time (May 1st), gorkcat only had
two
posts, neither of which expressed any suspicions whatsoever. Noting possible connection between Superstring91 and gorkcat here.

2.)
Similarly, I don't understand this post by gorkcat... he lists the latest activity of the town, and then votes thorgot (despite Southpaw and Sweenytodd [who was replaced as InHim and actually did have more recent posts]) without explanation, although it would make more sense to vote Southpaw in this context. Connection noted.

3.)
Not sure if I noted this before, but I don't like this post by Superstring91 – he talks about echoing, but his post here is a complete echo of what has just been happening. Gorkcat follows suit in his next post. This is a second connecting between Gorkcat and Superstring91.

4.)
Of the counter-CES wagon (to the InHim wagon), the worst vote to me looks to be this vote by OTM. In particular, voting somebody because "they're a dead man anyways" isn't a reason at all to vote somebody.

To elaborate (although this is less true in a game with multiple killing groups), the own only has a set number of lynch attempts they get in order to lynch scum. For the sake of argument, let's freeze this at 4 lynches maximum for this particular game. If you think somebody is going to die
at night
, there is no point in lynching them
during the day
– because that takes a town lynch, and since that person was 'going to die anyways', it makes it so the scum now get to kill a townsperson who was actually
helping
the town. It's really equivalent to shooting yourself in the foot.

5.)
Don't like 527 by gorkcat – "say, I agree with looking at OTM, cuz remember I said I was suspicious of thorgot
LOL
". The post just isn't reading "innocently" to me. I also don't like that it is closely followed by Post 540, which is basically saying "I agree with these two people even though I'm not specifying what I'm agreeing with". This looks like a "wagon-solidifier vote", and near a deadline that usually means death.

6.)
Post 541 by OTM I'm noting for this: "Nanook (been getting pro-town vibes from him lately, so he is almost off the list)". My mind is saying that OTM takes a different stance on this later – if I find it I'll quote it when I get to it. If not feel free to ignore this.

7.)
Post 625 by Superstring91 is saying a whole lot of nothing. Speculating on what scum would/should claim while the town is mass-claiming also seems like a dunderheaded thing to do.

8.)
Right-o, OTM says he suspects Nanook in Post 650, a different tune than in Post 541. Can I have an explanation for this change? Did you only think Nanook was scummy after MBL turned out to be town? [In fact, OTM votes Nanook in 660]. Preferably I'd like to see the thought process that occurred between these two posts.

---

I'm most suspicious of {gorkcat, Superstring91}, and I think there a reasonable number of connections which indicate they are fair candidates to both being in the same scum-group (such that I doubt either is SK).

Vote: gorkcat
. I will be more than happy to lynch
either
gorkcat
or
Superstring91, however, but of the two I think gorkcat has a better shot of coming up scum. His posts – although he seems to deny it – have a tendency of
insinuating
somebody is scum without saying so. Most recently, we have such gems as "just looking to see if it was a slip", "why'd you duck pj's question, OTM?", and "OTM has jumped quite a bit of late", which seems a hypocritical way to express suspicion coming from the person who had a like a series of 4 votes and unvotes (from thorgot to Sweenytodd to InHimShallIBe to thorgot) all in succession during mid-D1. I will probably go into more detail later when I have more time.
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Post Post #767 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 4:04 pm

Post by Off the Mark »

points 6 and 8 - keep reading. I was called out for that already and I explained it. Basically, I did get pro-town vibes from Nanook but after MBL turned up to be doc and not scum, I questioned those vibes and went back to my earlier suspicion of Eletriar.

Later Nanook explained that he thought Pie had to be the doc, which makes sense to me, so I became less suspicious of him. Your analysis has seemed pro-town too, so I am continuing to not be very suspicious. I think if we lynch superstring or gorckat, and possibly Pete D, we have a very high probability of finding scum or the SK.

Your paragraph about gorckat is almost exactly what I almost posted the other day, but I didn't have time to explain it fully. Gorckat has been making posts that subtly throw suspicion on others, as if he is hoping a townie will take his ideas and run with them, without Gorckat himself needing to lead the charge. I know I have used this tactic myself as scum, it's a good one.

I don't want to switch my vote right now though, let's see how this discussion continues a bit first.
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Post Post #768 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 5:06 pm

Post by gorckat »

I haven't been trying to find someone to run with my ideas, I'm fishing for ideas to run with. I did acknowledge the hypocrisy of me calling OTM's recent moves scummy. At this point, we're in a more tenuous situation, so I've held back a bit compared to Day 1.

I'm most skeptical of flea- he has to carry string's pedigree, and hasn't done anything of his own to advance any scum hunting.

OTM: You
almost
posted the
almost
exact same thing pj just posted? Do you mean when you voted me and didn't feel good about it?
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Post Post #769 (ISO) » Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:13 am

Post by Off the Mark »

gorckat wrote:OTM: You almost posted the almost exact same thing pj just posted? Do you mean when you voted me and didn't feel good about it?
Yes and No, it was more recent than that. Here are the lines that gave me the feeling you have been trying to cast subtle suspicion without ever building a case:
gorckat wrote:Second- OTM has jumped quite a bit of late. He tried (or did, depending on your opinion of me) to lay out a case against me when he voted, but then says he never felt good about it.

They don't have to be together if they're on competing scum teams.

Why'd you duck pj's question, OTM?

kilm hasn't posted in the last week. Why not?

Why the distinction between 2 and 3 scum here?
See the pattern here? These questions never went anywhere. It's like you wanted to make others look bad without actually making arguments. Certainly this could be honest investigation, but it gives me a bad feeling about you.
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Post Post #770 (ISO) » Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:56 am

Post by gorckat »

Certainly this could be honest investigation...


You've hedged like this every time you cast any suspicion on me. How is that any different than you saying I'm implying suspicion?

I haven't wanted to, because I'm stubborn and cling to earlier ideas that made sense at the time, but perhaps I was wrong about putting you with the town, OTM.

I think flea is our best bet for a lynch today. string was scummy, and flea hasn't added anything to change that opinion.

vote:somestrangeflea
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Post Post #771 (ISO) » Thu Aug 16, 2007 2:47 am

Post by Off the Mark »

I hedge like that because I want to make it clear that I am only considering possibilities. When I have a conviction about something (which is rare in this game, that I am sure of something) I will say so. Whenever players seem to be sure of something based on sketchy evidence, I immediately think scum. I know I tend to speculate a lot, so I'm making it clear that's that it is: speculation.
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Post Post #772 (ISO) » Thu Aug 16, 2007 2:49 am

Post by Off the Mark »

gorckat wrote:You've hedged like this every time you cast any suspicion on me. How is that any different than you saying I'm implying suspicion?
You're right about that, it is similar.
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Post Post #773 (ISO) » Thu Aug 16, 2007 3:14 am

Post by gorckat »

Being sure of things based on sketchiness is scummy to you. Is probing and not being sure scummy as well?

If so, what is not scummy, then?
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Post Post #774 (ISO) » Thu Aug 16, 2007 4:52 am

Post by Off the Mark »

You're doing it again. :D

When you keep asking probing/accusatory questions, but you don't ever follow them up by stating suspicions/opions, then it seems you must have an alternate motive.
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Post Post #775 (ISO) » Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:04 am

Post by gorckat »

What if I ask a probing question (such as why'd you avoid a question, or why'd pj distinguish between 2 and 3 scum) and it gets answered to my satisfaction? Do I have to enumerate that each time?

In a quick skim of my Day 2 posts, I see a lot of opinions.
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Post Post #776 (ISO) » Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:34 am

Post by Off the Mark »

Hey I'm not voting for you, am I? So clearly I don't feel THAT strongly about this scumtell. But I do think it is worth discussing.
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Post Post #777 (ISO) » Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:51 am

Post by gorckat »

But you have voted me, and keep insinuating that I could, maybe, possibly be scummy, although I could, possibly, maybe be town as well. I guess I'm sort-of calling pot/kettle here.

I need to re-read pj's case and driectly repsond to that since he
is
voting.
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Post Post #778 (ISO) » Thu Aug 16, 2007 6:15 am

Post by gorckat »

Addressing pj's 766:

1) I did have far fewer posts than thorgot then (2 vs 5 or 6). I was offline, since a lot of my posting is done from work, which was out of service for 7 or 8 days, and I'd had a lot going on at home. I'd have to look to see why string chose thorgot- I think because thorgot was posting and someone called him on pressuring apparently flaked players.

2) iirc, the game was very slow, and the preceding post lays out the joke logic I was working with: third longest lurker was obv scum. Correcting for InHim, pete d should've been my target, not string.

3) It looks like OTM had already expressed suspicion of kilm, string found her scummy, and I had a direct question ignored. Also note that I unvoted kilm to vote thorgot per #2.

5) touched on in 3, it looks like. You completely misrepresent my post,
LOL
. I laid out why thorgot/OTM was at the top with kilm. Also see post 560 where I specifiy what I felt were the strongest points against InHim.

(How do you do that direct link to a post thing? Is it a URL hack?)

Since you linked directly to the posts, I don't think you were deliberately trying to misrepresent things, but all the points you bring up have been addressed in-game.

@pie: Did you ever read those links you asked me for?
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Post Post #779 (ISO) » Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:35 pm

Post by pete d »

ok, flea's had ample opportunity to post something of substance.
vote: somestrangeflea
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Post Post #780 (ISO) » Fri Aug 17, 2007 1:07 am

Post by Dasquian »

Still here, and still happy to pressure flea. I'd also like to note that he's on lynch -2, for whatever that's worth.

On kilm's no lynch - sorry, I agree with OTM, I don't think this is a good idea, we really need to nail scum (or at least give the various killing groups enough information to kill each other). Going no lynch won't help with that.

On gorckat - throughout this game people have pointed the finger at gorckat for being scummy, enough people that it can't just be a few wayward OMGUSes or attempts to get a townie lynched. I've not really understood this case and still don't, so I am, genuinely, missing something - I'll have a reread and rethink but my gut still says he's town.
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Post Post #781 (ISO) » Sat Aug 18, 2007 9:39 am

Post by Pie_is_good »

petroleumjelly wrote:From my own experience, when CES is actually helpful, he turns out to be scum, and when he is being completely useless, he is often town. Do you agree or disagree with this? I just want to gauge how you read CES, since I probably do it differently than most people.
Given that this is the second game I've played with CES, I'm going to pass judgement.
Off the Mark wrote:So he can just lurk his way to victory? Maybe he's lurking because he sees that everyone thinks he is scummy and he's figured, "Well frig that game then." Who knows?
Yes, exactly.
Who Knows?


Why take a risk on a lurker when we have information?


re: SSF Wagon


Not completely feeling this one, but I'll reread. What mostly disturbs me about this bandwagon is how quickly it took off. In my experience, scum are less likely to bus their partners as the game (is at/approaches) LyLo.
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Post Post #782 (ISO) » Sat Aug 18, 2007 4:42 pm

Post by Off the Mark »

In my experience, scum are less likely to bus their partners as the game (is at/approaches) LyLo.
So... wouldn't it follow then that ssf is MORE likely to be scum, since this bandwagon is moving along (well, compared to the in-general glacial pace of this game, it is moving) and we ARE fairly close to lylo?

vote: somestrangeflea


I'm getting rather bored of this game, it's time for something to happen. I can't see a lurker replacing into a game who is TOWN but is under major suspicion and then just ignoring it. Seems like he should be fighting tooth and nail to stay alive. But he just pretty much said, "yeah, superstring looked scummy, I'll try to help you." and then disappeared. That seems like scum behavior to me who is disgusted with being put into a no-win situation. I'm happy with this vote.
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Post Post #783 (ISO) » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:04 pm

Post by pete d »

pie wrote:Why take a risk on a lurker when we have information?
We are not "tak(ing) a risk on a lurker". We have genuine reasons to be voting superstring / flea which have already been presented. Superstring lurking for some parts of the game =/= we have no information on string / flea.
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Post Post #784 (ISO) » Sat Aug 18, 2007 10:33 pm

Post by somestrangeflea »

Off The Mark wrote:I'm getting rather bored of this game, it's time for something to happen.
This is always a slight scumtell in my mind. It seems to me that players who claim to want something to happen (or, at least, the first in a "wanting something to happen" group"), are scum more often than not.
Off The Mark wrote:I can't see a lurker replacing into a game who is TOWN but is under major suspicion and then just ignoring it. Seems like he should be fighting tooth and nail to stay alive.
But how am I meant to defend myself against what SS did?
Off The Mark wrote:But he just pretty much said, "yeah, superstring looked scummy, I'll try to help you." and then disappeared.
That's
exactly
what I did! You don't get any points though, because it was
fairly
obvious.
Off The Mark wrote:That seems like scum behavior to me who is disgusted with being put into a no-win situation. I'm happy with this vote.
Why would scum be more likely to "vanish" in a no-win situation than Townies? The situation is equally dire for a player of either alignment!
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Post Post #785 (ISO) » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:06 am

Post by Off the Mark »

^^^ true, interesting that you immediately saw things from the scum perspective as well. I guess I felt it would be more dire if you felt "the town is WRONG and I have to do something about it" rather then "well they caught me". The first situation seems more like one worth fighting for, don't you think?
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Post Post #786 (ISO) » Sun Aug 19, 2007 5:11 am

Post by Dasquian »

somestrangeflea wrote:But how am I meant to defend myself against what SS did?
It's a time-old conundrum, and an entirely reasonable thing to complain about. You are, unfortunately, lumbered with a predecessor's actions you can't explain or justify.

However, MBL gave it a good go and, in my opinion at least, made himself look more town because of it. If you're town, you can undo some of the damage superstring did by convincing us he really was just a town lurker by virtue of you being a non-scummy non-lurker. I think the objection presented that you've replaced in and appear to have rolled over isn't unfair. Moreover, if you're town we cannot afford for you to do this, for obvious reasons.

Or in other words, what OTM just said.
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Post Post #787 (ISO) » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:38 am

Post by Pie_is_good »

re: Gorc's previous games


Yes, I did, and I don't think they're in your favor.

Also, I'm finding something a bit off about how Gorc keeps asking me if I've read his games... I can't decide if it's scummy or not yet, but I'm posting this for later reference.
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Post Post #788 (ISO) » Mon Aug 20, 2007 8:07 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

Gorckat (pie)
Superstring (dasq)
SSF (gorckat peted OtM)
No lynch (kilm)
tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner
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Post Post #789 (ISO) » Mon Aug 20, 2007 8:14 am

Post by Off the Mark »

Superstring = SSF

SSF is at lynch -1 then, with only kilm or pie left to pull the trigger. It concerns me that scum are willing to bus SSF, (unless there are only 2 scum, and Pie is the other one) this makes me think we may be on the wrong track here.

Experiment time.

unvote, vote: gorckat
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Post Post #790 (ISO) » Mon Aug 20, 2007 3:35 pm

Post by pete d »

^^^ It concerns me how apparently little confidence you had in your -1 vote on SSF.
OtM wrote:I'm getting rather bored of this game, it's time for something to happen.
OtM wrote:Experiment time.
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