Mini 424 - Game Over

[hand banana]

I'm not a fan of "most to least scummy" lists, though. I won't vote myself or Nocmen. How's that?

hm... that's not good enough for me.

"lists" would be to indicate to scum who they should nightkill on the upcoming night

o rly?
it will be 3 unconfirmed townies and 1 scum (4 in total)
or 2 unconfirmed townies, nocmen and one scum, if anyone else is but nocmen is killed.
damn, i would like them to kill anyone but nocmen, but that ain't gonna happen unless they're retarded.
and there is absolutely no tactic for scum that would favor killing anyone else, and you all know this, as much as i do.

we are already at LyLo and we will be at LyLo the next day too, and since nocmen is going to be killed anyway i don't see how these lists are going to help scum at all.
and they will help town (at least me) in deciding our lynch in day 5.

my vote will stay on acfan till the end of this day. finito.

[Javert]

My mistake - you are correct that Nocmen is practically guaranteed to die if anybody is nightkilled. In any other situation, my statement would be true.

My suspicions will hinge entirely on the alignment on the alignment of ac1983fan. If he is town, then I would think the scum-group is hand banana and Elias_the_thief. If he is scum, I would need to review the thread to determine who his partner is, but I could see anybody (save myself and Nocmen) occupying that position.

[MeMe]

Might not be "good enough" for you, but it works beautifully for me.

And, anyway, there's five people left in the game besides me. I told you my top suspect. I told you my bottom suspect. Everyone else is in-between (kinda like

your

list).

[Nocmen]

It takes a lot to consider where to go, especially with my unique posistion in this game (almost proven town)...

There are 5 people that could be scum, ac1983fan, MeMe, Javert, elias, and hand banana.

My guess is that there has to be 3 scum total, or else it would not make sense to have the game continueing. That would mean there are two scum alive.

I really can't get a good tell on any one single person. However, I am keeping my vote on him. Why? If the scum wanted to, most likely they could end the game by quicklynching him if he was town. That would make it 2 scum and 3 town, they could NK their way to a win overnight.

That...or they are pulling everyone's strings.

Next time I get time, I will attempt to go and analyze the possiblity of every scum pair, and their relation to the lynched scum. It might not work, but I might get a better scope than looking at each person induvidually.

[ac1983fan]

I really can't get a good tell on any one single person. However, I am keeping my vote on him. Why? If the scum wanted to, most likely they could end the game by quicklynching him if he was town. That would make it 2 scum and 3 town, they could NK their way to a win overnight.

This just made a lightbulb go off in my head: If scum wanted to win, why wouldn't they have done this already. The only possible explanation for it could be that one of the two scum is already voting for me. Or, scum have setup a brilliant evil plan and are just waiting for the right moment to win.

[MeMe]

It's also possible Elias is scum and a quick-lynch has been impossible in his absence...in light of LyingBrian's recent post firming up the dates of Elias's availability, we see that he was here for the night choices.

I believe that, if Elias is scum, it's even more likely that ac is, though. It makes sense that he wouldn't ask for Elias's input if he'd been reminded, overnight, that Elias wouldn't be available during the first part of the day.

In sum, I think the most likely explanation for ac not yet being lynched is that he's a baddie -- but I'll wait to see what Elias has to say before placing a vote.

[hand banana]

If scum wanted to win, why wouldn't they have done this already

only one explanation..
from my point of view, 2 townies voting for one guy, and he doesn't get lynched (with 2 more scum votes), means he's scum 100%.
that's why my vote on you is sealed.

and i was almost sure you are scum even before all this.

[ac1983fan]

stop wasting time guys.
you have three choices, me hand banana, and elias.
pick one and vote now. stop saying "oh, I'm going to vote ac1983fan later because he's so scummy"
the one thing I don't get is how I can be considered scummy.

mod, can you tell us Sv's sanity? or is that private information

MOD NOTE

complete roles will be disclosed once the game has ended...

[Elias_the_thief]

Ok. I'm back.

1.

I dont believe Ac's claim. If he's scum then he could easily have sent no kill in order to make his claim believable and paint another as scum.

2.

I didnt like the speed of his hammer yesterday.

3.

If he weren't scum, I think he probably would be quicklynched by now.

4.

Finally, he's played scummily all game.

That being said, acfan is the most likely mafioso in my opinion.

vote: acfan

[hand banana]

little update, just re-read elias's posts..

acfan - 100%

elias 90%
meme - 5%
javert 5%

if we can get majority for elias, i'd be glad to place the 4th vote.
i think i found our scumpair, and i'd prefer to vote off acfan, but if the town can agree to lynch elias, i'm up for it.

[Elias_the_thief]

if you could please tell me what it is in the reread that made me go from 50 to 90, id appreciate it.

[ac1983fan]

4.

Finally, he's played scummily all game.

If I remember correctly, early on, you said I looked town or something... I may be remembering incorrectly tho.

[ac1983fan]

arrg nvm that.
I won't be posting anymore in this thread unless an oppurtunity I can't pass up arrises

[hand banana]

if you could please tell me what it is in the reread that made me go from 50 to 90, id appreciate it.

no, i couldn't atm..
i will, however, do that in day 5 if ac1983fan (hopefully) gets lynched now.. i want to wait and have my eye on you for a little longer.. i just started focusing all my attention on other players besides him, cause acfan's case is a done deal for me.
but let's say 2 things for now.

1) a very strong hunch
2) process of elimination

and your vote on him is just your way of distancing from your scumbuddy, cause you are quite aware that he's gonna get lynched, and you cold easily be the next one on day 5.. i understand this is wifom, and same thing could be said for me too, but i just feel this is exactly the case in this game..

[MeMe]

I'll hammer in 8 hours if there's no decent reason given not to do so before that time.

[ac1983fan]

how about we lynch elias?
in most peoples scum possibilites, he seems to be a common denominator in most peoples scum pairings.

unvote:hand banana vote:elias

[LyingBrian]

• Vote Count:
  • 3) ac1983fan
    • Elias_the_thief
    • hand banana
    • Nocmen
  • 1) Elias_the_thief
    • ac1983fan
  • 2)
    not voting
    • Javert
    • MeMe
• Lynch:
  4 votes

[Javert]

Well, this confirms that the scum-group is one of two factions:

1.) Elias + Hand Banana; or
2.) ac1983fan + {Elias / Hand Banana / MeMe}

I wouldn't be averse to a hammering of ac1983fan, but I would preferably like to read the thread with the possibility of Elias + HB + Ancalagon scumgroup and see if that "clicks" for me.

[MeMe]

Don't fear me hammering then. I'll wait for you to do your read-through.

[hand banana]

Elias + HB + Ancalagon scumgroup and see if that "clicks" for me.

right... if that "clicks" for you, please let's lynch elias first, that way the town will at least have one full game day to realise that the scumpair is acfan/elias.

[hand banana]

and the funniest thing is their mutual voting..

it's very simple for me..
2 townies (me and nocmen) voting for a guy.. at first, when i saw nocmen's vote, i thought, "if we're wrong, and acfan is town, this game is over". but scum never hammered him.
so he must be scum. 100%.
then i looked for his scumbuddy, and found elias as most promising candidate.. further reading and simple elimination proved to me that i'm right.
i don't think we will have problems this day.. we'll almost certainly pick one of them.
but day 5 will bring some problems..
and don't be fooled by their votes (voting each other), they're just trying to distance from each other.

[Elias_the_thief]

Hand banana, youre voting because of me because of a hunch. You realize you're turning your vote away from a player who has been scummy all game, hammered superfast yesterday, and who you claim to be faking a block of you? This makes no sense.

If he is not scum, then his block must be true. In that case, that proves that

you

are scum. However, if you are town, then the fact that he's claiming to have blocked you should lean towards his guilt. I'm starting to think the pair is AC + HB. Of course, given the fact that there are three main suspects, we'll all probably just indicate each other.

[Javert]

I had actually typed up an answer to Elias' question towards Hand_Banana (since it can't be construed as "protecting" and the answer seems clear to me), but I just realized I would rather see Hand_Banana answer it himself.

[Elias_the_thief]

I occured to me when I read javerts response, then read my own post, that HB is not actually voting me. but im still curious as to the 50 to 90 % jump, and I stand by all of the other points I made in that post.

[Javert]

Possible Scum-Group {Ancalagon, The Shadow, Elias_the_thief}Connections

• Post 17 by Elias_the_thief pushes a counterwagon, when The Shadow had hit three votes.
  
• The Ancalagon-Elias argument I could certainly see being distancing (especially since Elias had come under some pressure very early and very rapidly).
  
• Post 65 by The Shadow shows that in The Shadow's first actual 'post' (with content) in the game, he does not make any comments on the Ancalagon-Elias argument whatsoever, perhaps because he does not want to push either of them any further into suspicion.
  
• In post 58, Elias_the_thief says he was going to make the same points as I did about Barroman. But in Post 68 he suddenly agrees with The Shadow, and doesn't think what I pointed out was a scumtell. [This could also have been done to make it look like The Shadow had contributed something more noteworthy than he actually did]. Would you mind explaining this switch for me, Elias? I'm surprised I just now saw it.
  
• Post 81 by Ancalagon seems completely useless – there may have been a purpose he had in mind, but now that he's come up scum it certainly makes me wonder if it's meant to suggest "I don't know what time zone he is in, so I don't know him very well" (i.e. could not be scum with him).
  
• Post 129 by Ancalagon could, in retrospect, be a silent way of unvoting Elias_the_thief (done in such a way that it would not be noticed easily).
  
• Post 142 by Elias_the_thief similarly has an unvote on Ancalagon – with reasoning that does not follow, and even then he does not replace his vote in Post 149.
  
• Post 250 by Elias is a fine sentiment, but when looking for connections it can't be ignored.
  
• Post 265 can show some relief that The Shadow was replaced, and at the end Elias asks if Ancalagon can contribute more (to be possibly read as: "Hey! Contribute something or be bussed.")
  
• Note: If the scum-group is [Ancalagon-Elias-Shadow], then none of them were on the ac1983fan wagon (not even the fifth vote after his claim), which is certainly more than possible but it makes the group less probable. In fact, Ancalagon points out how he 'doesn't believe' ac1983fan and yet does not vote for him, in Post 335.
  
• Post 335 (again), Ancalagon has a complete flip on Elias from early-game (instead of using early momentum like you would otherwise think he might do).
  
• Post 567 by Hand Banana. His posts implies that [Elias or Javert] are equally likely, but he ends his post with a FoS on me and not Elias. Could have an explanation for why you did that in particular?
  
• Notably, in Post 627 Hand Banana suddenly has Elias_the_thief as his "second suspect" now that we in LyLo (possibly because it's no longer necessary to express more suspicion on me than Elias). Can I hear an explanation for this sudden change in percentage? It jumped to 90% in Post 642, by the by – and as a scum-team, percentages would not even matter at this point.

Unfortunately, Elias_the_thief has been lacking in posts for much of Day Two until today, due to constant absences, as since The Shadow was replaced by Sweenytodd, and then Sweenytodd has also been replaced, posts are also lacking in that department.

Any responses to this list would be appreciated.