Logical vs. Behavioral Scumhunting

[Scigatt]

The No Free Lynch Conjecture

Averaged over all possible town make-ups, all scum-hunting strategies(including random lynching) are equally effective.

I want to to know how true you think this is and/or how relevant it is.

I'm pretty sure that's false.

No one is going to be right all the time, but in my experence a good scumhunter or decent group of scumhunters can raise the number of correct lynches from the random level of 25% or so up to 40% or 50% or so, so long as they don't get paranoid or fall into bad patterns of thinking.

I'm am not talking about scumhunters but scumhunting strategies. A good scumhunter could probably shift their strategy depending on the other players.

[shaft.ed]

The No Free Lynch Conjecture

Averaged over all possible town make-ups, all scum-hunting strategies(including random lynching) are equally effective.

I want to to know how true you think this is and/or how relevant it is.

I'm pretty sure that's false.

No one is going to be right all the time, but in my experence a good scumhunter or decent group of scumhunters can raise the number of correct lynches from the random level of 25% or so up to 40% or 50% or so, so long as they don't get paranoid or fall into bad patterns of thinking.

I'm am not talking about scumhunters but scumhunting strategies. A good scumhunter

could probably

shifts their strategy depending on the other players.

Fixed

[Elmo]

I think hypothetically, based on what you're referencing (No Free Lunch for the less geeky, right?) it's quite possibly - maybe even probably - true. But practically speaking it's irrelevant because town make-ups are far from arbitrary.

[Adel]

I think hypothetically, based on what you're referencing (No Free Lunch for the less geeky, right?) it's quite possibly - maybe even probably - true. But practically speaking it's irrelevant because town make-ups are far from arbitrary.

it still fails because of the recursive feedback that we call the "meta".

[KidIcarus]

Are you guys continuing an argument from 2 years ago? wth

[Adel]

it beats starting a new thread. Some conversations are worth continuing.

I definitely prefer necros over new threads, especially since some of the best mafia minds don't play mafia anymore.