Mini 326- Buffy Mafia-Game Over

[Lostprophet]

Just some bits and pieces I found disturbing on re-read.

It's actually not you I'm trying to convince right now. My current theory is that you are co-scum with Stevie, you wanted to ease pressure on him, get him out of trouble, I caught you and your only recourse is OMGUS. You suspect LP, you suspect Aelyn, you suspect me. Of course you're supporting more discussion if that stands a chance of saving you and your co-scum from the noose. But I think that Stevie's a solid lynch for today with, if he is guilty, a solid lead for tomorrow.

Alarm bells, for several reasons. First and foremost, we now know both of Adele's alleged "scum buddies" to be townies. Looks like a classic case of a fizzled false dilemma if ever there was one. Also, note the other names she throws out; "You're suspicious of X, you're suspicious of Y." Obviously she mentions herself, too, but as an afterthought. It feels like a hedge-your-bets sort of move, and I don't like it.

There were 12 people at the start of this game.

Presumably:
3 Mafia
1 Doctor (dead)
1 Cop
1 Vig
6 Townies (1 dead)

Faith didn't claim Cop or Vig. So:

3/8: Faith is Mafia
5/8: Faith is a Townie

There is a 38% shot Faith is Mafia. Given Stevie's actions that's not enough for me to unvote.

Jecht pointed this out already, but HOLY CRAP WHOA is this ever awful justification. I feel pretty bad now for missing this, especially seeing as how Jecht even tried to get the ball rolling.

FOS: notguilty

.

I think one of those two are our best leads. I'm leaning toward the latter myself.

[SpamWise]

@LP:Aelyn FoSed him for it already. And Jecht voted notguilty yesterday. Interestingly enough Twito was voting for you until he hammered Stevie.

[Aelyn]

*drums fingers*

[SpamWise]

Vote: NotGuilty

to get the ball rolling.

[Adele]

How embarrasing. I just need to stop having theories .

Just some bits and pieces I found disturbing on re-read.

It's actually not you I'm trying to convince right now. My current theory is that you are co-scum with Stevie, you wanted to ease pressure on him, get him out of trouble, I caught you and your only recourse is OMGUS. You suspect LP, you suspect Aelyn, you suspect me. Of course you're supporting more discussion if that stands a chance of saving you and your co-scum from the noose. But I think that Stevie's a solid lynch for today with, if he is guilty, a solid lead for tomorrow.

Alarm bells, for several reasons. First and foremost, we now know both of Adele's alleged "scum buddies" to be townies. Looks like a classic case of a fizzled false dilemma if ever there was one. Also, note the other names she throws out; "You're suspicious of X, you're suspicious of Y." Obviously she mentions herself, too, but as an afterthought. It feels like a hedge-your-bets sort of move, and I don't like it.

Your first point makes no sense to me. I had two theories - "Stevie is scum" and "If Stevie is scum, Twito's probably scum too". The first was wrong so

technically

the second wasn't (a peculiarity of logic ). Anyway my point is that this was not a false dilemma. If I'd said that

either

Stevie or Twito were scum, that would be the false dilemma that I think you mean. Instead, I was just pushing for a duff lead (sorry).

The second part ("Also, note the other names she throws out..."). I didn't throw those names out.

I

noted the people that

Twito

mentioned. What is it you're scared I'm going to do with those names (to clarify, I listed them in order; Twito stated suspicion of LP in post 65, Aelyn in 68 and implied suspicion of me in post 73 - "Maybe you would prefer no talk and quicklynches" and suchlike)? Hedge my bets how?

I thought Twito's behaviour was scummy; I still do, but I was wrong that he was actually scum. I'll suck that up. My bad, as Buffy would say .

But what exactly are you accusing me of here?

[Aelyn]

This game seems quite dead. I'm gonna re-read and see what I can say.

[Adele]

...The second part ("Also, note the other names she throws out..."). I didn't throw those names out.

I

noted the people that

Twito

mentioned. What is it you're scared I'm going to do with those names (to clarify, I listed them in order; Twito stated suspicion of LP in post 65, Aelyn in 68 and implied suspicion of me in post 73 - "Maybe you would prefer no talk and quicklynches" and suchlike)? Hedge my bets how?

I thought Twito's behaviour was scummy; I still do, but I was wrong that he was actually scum. I'll suck that up. My bad, as Buffy would say .

But what exactly are you accusing me of here?

LP, I'm still waiting on an answer.

[TBuG]

We could be in a Lynch or Lose situation, people. We need to do something. I hate to say it, but we may need to *cowers* mass claim.

[Adele]

I'm against a mass claim. What we

need

is some participation.

mod,

could we get some

prods

out please?

For example, LP threw out a bunch of stuff nearly a week ago, and hasn't bothered to turn back up to answer my questions.

Besides, shouldn't a Day 2 LyLo be impossible in a well-constructed mini?

[Pug89]

FOS: notguilty

The speculation on the setup by notguilty really bothers me, and the use of it as justifaction for his vote on Stevie bothers me even more.

Right now I don't think a mass claim is necessary, and might not be very helpful considering that many characters where evil at various points during the series and good at others.

Also, I will be out of town from tommorow till the 19th. I'll have some internet access but from the 11th till the 17th I definitly won't. If it's necessary to replace me go ahead and do it.

[notguilty]

Let's quote me:

Yes, obviously speculation. But with a dead doctor, a dead townie and a vig, there are 9 spots left. Of the 9 at least 1 is mafia, and quite possibly more. With so few people, the percentage of success is high enough for this level of certainty to result in a lynch.

This is my second game. Apologies for doing something apparently unthinkable. The point was that with a good reason to vote for Stevie and what I believed was a decent mathematical chance that he was mafia, I wasn't going to unvote. Read posts 78, 79 and 81; I've already explained myself.

Twito articulated some reasons to

FOS:Lostprophet

earlier. Those reasons + the attack on Adele for something she didn't say -> my suspicion.

[TBuG]

Besides, shouldn't a Day 2 LyLo be impossible in a well-constructed mini?

Not if we got unlucky with our scum. Although, now that I think about it, we probably have a 2-person mafia and an SK.

[armlx]

I will be going out of town tommorow and will not get back untill the 19th. I should have internet access but from the 11th till the 17th I definitly won't. I know a week is a long time to not post so if you need to replace me feel free to.

I will not be replacing Pug any no deadlines will be set within the time he is away (so no deadline till at least the 19th)

[Lostprophet]

My apologies; I've only had about 10 minutes each night around my brother hitting the sack early, and I missed that this game was near the top.

But what exactly are you accusing me of here?

Only of making a post that looked scummy to me. I still don't like it; scattershot attacks I've found more often than not are tactics used by scum to distance themselves from picking on individual townies. The "Hedging your bets" thing was more in the tone of the way you listed whom Twito suspected, I suppose ("You suspect X, you suspect Y..."), than in actual practice; it just struck me as odd that you'd bother to list out names, for some reason, but that could just be the hindsight talking.

Also, the second quoted passage in my earlier post should be attributed to notguilty, obviously. Speaking of which:

This is my second game. Apologies for doing something apparently unthinkable.

AGH. Being new to the game is NOT a defense for anti-town behavior. Period.

[SpamWise]

unvote

Vote:Pug89

[Adele]

Nope, I'm still not clear on what I did that upset you. Problem is, your statements are still ambiguous. If you're saying what I think you're saying, I think that makes

you

look scummy. too much for me to hope, though, that you'd clarify and thereby did your own grave .

Are you suggesting that it's possible that I mentioned you and Aelyn so that I could attack you two later? Is that what this is all about? Because that's nonsense, considering:

...the FOSes that he's sent out more recently on Aelyn & LP for frankly waeak reasons...

I stated that Twito's suspicions were badly founded. I couldn't possibly have turned around and said "Twito suspected X and Y, see? They must be the bad guys!"

FOS: LP

for what

appears

to be deliberate misrepresentation.

[SpamWise]

Here's a poem I wrote.

All the vampires,
Do humans much harm,
Ergo they must be contained,
Lest they destroy us all,
Ever live Buffy!

Alright it's crap, but I like it. Speaking of things I like, I like where my vote is right now. And I'm certain if you're vote was with mine you would be much happier as well. Unless of course you're scum buddies with Pug, in which case you'd be angry,

[Lostprophet]

FOS: LP

for what

appears

to be deliberate misrepresentation.

Is there something you're holding out for here? If you think I've been trying to misrepresent you, then just dispense with the pleasantries and vote already.

Are you suggesting that it's possible that I mentioned you and Aelyn so that I could attack you two later? Is that what this is all about?

In a nutshell. The post you listed, 71, came a page before the one I quoted, which is largely semantics at this point. What you posted, to me, looks like a set-up to attack other people later on if you happen to be wrong. I found, and continue to find, this suspicious. Currently, your behavior smacks much more so of that of a townie, so I'll decline to vote for you.

unvote

Vote:Pug89

Oooh, oooh, me too me too.

Vote: SpamWise

.

This is a fun game!

[Adele]

I think you

have

misrepresented me, but I can't ever be certain, obviously,that it was deliberate.

What you posted, to me, looks like a set-up to attack other people later on if you happen to be wrong. I found, and continue to find, this suspicious. Currently, your behavior smacks much more so of that of a townie, so I'll decline to vote for you.

If I "happen" to be wrong? That makes no sense; if I'm scum then I wouldn't "happen to be wrong", I'd be lying, trying to attack townies. If I'm townie (natch) then your suspicion of me is misplaced in any case. This is what I mean by a nonsensical attack, and why I've been seeking clarification from you.

Why are you voting for Spamwise?

[TBuG]

I'm considering a vote for Spamwise. He voted Pug, who is away at the moment, and post 116 really confuses me.

[SpamWise]

I'm not voting for Pug because he's away, I'm voting for him because he's scum (imho).

SpamWise TAB odds put it at $1.25 LP and Pug are scum together.

[armlx]

Bump....

Come on, start posting....

[TBuG]

Vote: Spamwise

We have four "active" players atm, and of those four, he sticks out as scum.

[Adele]

Vote: Lostprophet

Right now, I trust Spamwise.
Yes, he's appeared strange, but the things he's doing remind me more of good guys playing poorly than bad guys playing either poorly or well.

[armlx]

Vote Count
Spamwise- 2 (LP, PBuG)
LP- 1 (Adele)
Pug- 1 (Spamwise)

Not Voting: Notguilty, Aelyn, Pug

7 alive, 4 to lynch