Mini 280 - Game Over

LoudmouthLee · Post Post #375 (ISO) » Tue Mar 07, 2006 5:40 pm

It's awful. This is an awful situation. I'm really worried that if we mislynch today, the town will be losing the enxt day with a mislynch of me.

This is gonna get ugly quickly.

Jaguar · Post Post #376 (ISO) » Wed Mar 08, 2006 3:45 am

Aelyn, please extend on those accusations? You would say LML is scum when he is the one who found you innocent through investigation? And with you believing D_G was insane, why wouldn't you be more in favour of a second sane cop in the game, one who found you innocent no less.

LML, I'm not sure why you would say you figure you are naive at this point. D_G was obviously on the town side, we don't know for sure what type of cop he was and we are still not sure of Aelyn's alignment, so it is still possible that you are our right cop.

draygn_mage, if you think Aelyn is the best lynchy, why is your vote on LML?

draygn_mage · Post Post #377 (ISO) » Wed Mar 08, 2006 3:50 am

Because I'm sure I'll end up dead tomorrow and I want everyone to remember where I put my vote. I have no doubts that the town will lynch Aelyn today and I agree with that.

KingPin · Post Post #378 (ISO) » Wed Mar 08, 2006 5:39 am

Mage,
I get why you are putting your vote on LML. I understand that you think his claim is complete crap. I also understand why you think that Aelyn is the best lynch today. But why not vote that way? I don’t think anyone would doubt your sincerity now that you’ve made it perfectly clear.

I am glad to hear from Aelyn and would like to hear more from him. I think it would be best if he elaborated on some of his suspicions. Though, at this point I still think he is the best choice for a lynch today.

Again, we had a Cop find him as guilty. He survived yesterday because we had a very misguided townie trying to advocate the lynch of a claimed cop. I know we cannot go back and change that, however, we can move forward today.

The problem is that both cops came out on D1. I would have felt a little better if both would not have stepped out as they had. But as it is, we can move forward with good information. Lynching someone that a cop said was guilty is a good thing. DG was a cop and found Aelyn as scum, or guilty as it were.

I’ll vote soon, but would like to hear more from Aelyn first, if at all.

Norinel · Post Post #379 (ISO) » Wed Mar 08, 2006 6:55 am

draygn_mage wrote:damnit that was supposed to be preview.

The only way that lynching Aelyn could be bad is if he's town. As DG got a guilty on him, I highly doubt that will happen.

Let me spell it out for you:

If there are 3 mafia and 1 SK at this point, there are also 4 town. Let's call this 3-1-4. If we lynch the SK, that goes to 3-0-4. If the mafia successfully kill, we go to 3-0-3, and unless there's a successful vig kill tonight or some other screwy role that can get us out of that, mafia wins. And if we don't lynch the SK, there'll still be two kills a night, but the chances that those kills hit the other scum go up, and there's no way the town can win in the 3-1-4 situation without crosskills. The mafia and SK can't win while the other survives, until the numbers become overwhelming.

Come to think of it, if the SK is totally nightkill-immune it might be worth it for them to claim now, because they can only be killed by lynching and it won't be the right town play to lynch a cooperative SK for a little while. Coordinate lynches and SK-kills to knock out the mafia, and the town and SK have much bigger chances.

Jaguar wrote:I (still) agree with Nori and vikingfan that lynching LML today is not the best choice yet

I don't think I said that. I think LML's more likely to be mafia than SK, which means if we think he's anti-town it's probably worth lynching him.

Kingpin wrote:So far, I've not heard anyone say that Aelyn is not a good choice today. I think we are all in agreement then that Aelyn is a good choice.

I

certainly

didn't say that. I think Aelyn's more likely to be the SK than scum, in which case lynching him now is way too big a risk.

LML wrote:It's awful. This is an awful situation. I'm really worried that if we mislynch today, the town will be losing the enxt day with a mislynch of me.

This is horribly misleading, and it should be obvious why.

KingPin wrote:Lynching someone that a cop said was guilty is a good thing.

X

I'm not usually one to call out a whole mafia family, but the whole SK thing makes LML/KingPin/draygn_mage look incredibly fishy, especially since I expect at least two of them to be able to understand it.

Norinel · Post Post #380 (ISO) » Wed Mar 08, 2006 6:59 am

EBWOP: And if you

still

don't understand, go read Mini 108.

vikingfan · Post Post #381 (ISO) » Wed Mar 08, 2006 7:21 am

Yeah, after thinking about it some more, I tend to agree.

unvote aelyn

What might be good is if we asked the SK in-thread to act like a vig- right now, the SK and town have the same interests (knocking out mafia), so it makes sense for us to instruct the sk tonight who he should kill. Or should we leave it up to him? What do you think?

draygn_mage · Post Post #382 (ISO) » Wed Mar 08, 2006 11:21 am

We have 8 people alive right now.

*Assuming 3 mafia and 1 SK in the setup*

We lynch town (50% chance)
1. Mafia fires tonight hitting either town (75%) or SK (25%)
2. SK fires tonight hitting either town (50%) or mafia (50%)
3. Vig (?) fires tonight hitting either town (29%) mafia (43%) or SK (14%)

We don't even know if we have a functioning night vig, so basically, if we lynch a townie today, and there is no vig, then the town's fate rests with the SK *not* hitting town (a 50/50 chance)

We lynch mafia (38% chance)
1. Mafia fires tonight hitting either town (80%) or SK (20%)
2. SK fires tonight hitting either town (67%) or mafia (33%)
3. Vig fires tonight hitting town (50%) mafia (33%) or SK (17%)

If we lynch mafia, we have a 54% chance of waking up with 2 more dead townies.

We lynch SK (13% chance)
1. Mafia fires tonight hitting town (100%)
2. Vig (?) fires tonight hitting town (50%) or mafia (50%)

I don't like any of these options, but if someone would like to explain why one option is better than the others, I'd love to hear it. The math is sound, as we have NO fully cleared townies, and all the night kills will be ranodom beyond the certainty that scum will not elect to shoot one of their own ever.

draygn_mage · Post Post #383 (ISO) » Wed Mar 08, 2006 11:27 am

This really bites. We have a dead cop, dead doc, and dead day vig. Anyone want to mass claim??

KingPin · Post Post #384 (ISO) » Wed Mar 08, 2006 11:29 am

Norinel,

I get your numbers theory, but to me it just goes against my gut to lynch someone else.

Based on what we have right now, why couldn’t LML be the SK (if we are going to assume that his claim is crap)? I realize that his claim sounds more likely to be mafia, but who is to say that that’s right?

Who is to say that Aelyn is not mafia? With all the people to make a claim, why wouldn’t it be logical for scum to make the claim that Aelyn did?

If there is a chance for the SK to still win, why would the SK come forward and accept losing to help the town, which is against him also?

Trusting the SK to do the right thing suggests that the SK has given up on winning. It would take some luck to ensure that the SK hits the right person at night, and if he didn't then the town is screwed!

Mage,

Mass claim only on a town consensus, though it would probably help scum rather than town. IMHO.

Aelyn · Post Post #385 (ISO) » Thu Mar 09, 2006 10:42 am

vikingfan wrote:Yeah, after thinking about it some more, I tend to agree.
unvote aelyn
What might be good is if we asked the SK in-thread to act like a vig.

Sounds good to me.

Who'm I killing tonight then?

Passdog · Post Post #386 (ISO) » Thu Mar 09, 2006 11:51 am

Ok. Now that we know that Aelyn is in fact the SK what do we do with the information?

We are now in a pretty tense situation. If we get Aelyn to kill tonight, and we miss and accidentally off a townie, then we are left in a really bad way. So should we consider having Aelyn kill no one?

vikingfan · Post Post #387 (ISO) » Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:44 pm

Aelyn killing no one is the same as a no-lynch at this point in time, which I dont' want to do. I'd rather take my chances and use TWO kills (the lynch and the Aelyn kill) to get us a scum, if possible. If we can't do that, then scum deserve to win.

Let's analyze the numbers, using the prior 3-1-4 theorem (this theory assumes that Aelyn is telling the truth about being the SK). I assume 3 deaths under this scenario, assuming no blocks or docs (lynch today, Aelyn's kill, and mafia's kill). If we kill one scum and lose two townies, then it's 2-1-2, which is winnable but tough for the town (assuming Aelyn can still be trusted after tonight). That scenario would conceivably lead to a mafia-SK-townie standoff. If we kill two scum and lose one townie, it's 1-1-3. Town has a pretty good chance to win here, unless Aelyn turns on the town. If we don't kill any scum at alll, we have probably lost. If one of everything is lost (mafia, SK, townie), we then have 2-3, which would be lynch or lose for the town, but still better than what we have now (since there are fewer suspects). Are there any other scenarios that I'm missing? I like our chances better if we use Aelyn's kill.

vikingfan · Post Post #388 (ISO) » Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:47 pm

I forgot to say that this claim does a couple of things.

A) we know that DG is sane (even if Aelyn is lying, he would be mafia, which would still make DG sane. I suppose he could be paranoid but I refuse to believe the mod would make TWO cops of different sanities that are not sane).

B) Aelyn could be scum copping a gambit of SK and hoping to lynch a townie to help the mafia along.

C) Whether Aelyn is telling the truth or not, LML cannot be sane. Thus, he is either a naive cop or a scum trying to counterclaim a real cop.

LoudmouthLee · Post Post #389 (ISO) » Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:48 pm

So.. Aelyn's the SK. Which means.. I may be sane. (eyebrows raised).

I still say to lynch him to clear me. Thanks.

vikingfan · Post Post #390 (ISO) » Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:51 pm

?? I thought DG declared Aelyn guilty and LML found him innocent. Or is my memory failing me?

vikingfan · Post Post #391 (ISO) » Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:53 pm

Yes, that's right, just went back and checked. DG did declare Aelyn guilty. So why are you saying you may be sane, LML?

KingPin · Post Post #392 (ISO) » Thu Mar 09, 2006 1:12 pm

I have never had the SK come out and offer the town help. Call me skeptical of the whole thing!

I still don't like the idea of SK on the town's side, especially since he has his own win criteria. In addition, I'll agree with Viking that who knows that this guy is not the Scum posing as the SK.

To go with the thought that Aelyn=SK and is 'willing' to help the town win, I say that LML is the likely target right now. Reasoning: Aelyn is guilty (SK), DG found him guilty (sane cop), LML found him innocent. I think because of this that LML's claim is completely false. In my opinion, LML's claim is a gambit by scum to lynch the SK and kill off the cop all in one day/night. Then he could claim that he has found 'everyone' esle as innocent because he is naive (read scum lying).

Oh and Norinel, if you have a cop that says someone is guilty and you don't want to lynch them, it kind of makes you look scummy. Especially if that person just happens to claim to be the SK, a few posts after you and Viking ask for the SK to help, and turns out to be scum posing as the SK. It may just be one last brilliant chance for mafia to win, all organized in thread right under the town's nose.

vikingfan · Post Post #393 (ISO) » Thu Mar 09, 2006 3:18 pm

KingPin wrote:I have never had the SK come out and offer the town help. Call me skeptical of the whole thing!

See Mafia 43- Married to the Mob for just one example of the SK coming out- and that was midgame, not in a possible lynch-or-lose situation! Not that I necessarily buy Aelyn's claim as a result, but it has happened.

Regardless, it is reasonably clear now to me that DG was sane. The only question is whether LML is a misled cop or is posing scum. Either way, I think it's worth using one of our two kills on him- the only question is which.

LoudmouthLee · Post Post #394 (ISO) » Thu Mar 09, 2006 5:47 pm

Uhm, I have modded and played in games where a cop finds the SK innocent.

Anyway, I would recommend, if anything, having me killed overnight. Don't waste a lynch here. I truly am a cop. This game will be a very interesting study after everything is said and done.

Unfortunately, I've resigned myself to being killed. It's a pity to have the town lose for it.

draygn_mage · Post Post #395 (ISO) » Thu Mar 09, 2006 6:28 pm

regardless of that, if we lynch the SK, then we are at 3 vs 3 once the scum make their kill and we lose. you should know better than that.

confirm vote LML

LoudmouthLee · Post Post #396 (ISO) » Fri Mar 10, 2006 2:36 am

You are confirm voting a cop. You're going to look mighty stupid in my death, mighty scummy as well.

Damn. Two cops checking the same guy night one and it's going to spell doom for the town. Couple that with Fiasco's scumminess day one.. the mafia had it pretty easy this game.

LmL=Frustrated

Jaguar · Post Post #397 (ISO) » Fri Mar 10, 2006 3:54 am

Draygn_mage, so what exactly is your reason for wanting to lynch LML and confirm voting? If the SK helps out, we can take care of LML tonight and still target someone today that we think is scum. With leaving the SK alive, we are in a better position as town to win, especially since it appears that he has agreed to help the town. And d_m, I'm not so sure a mass claim is going to help us at this point. There are way too many scum left alive for that to work.

Norinel, I must have misread somehwere. I thought you said you were still opposed to an LML lynch. My apologies.

I'd say we go after Kingpin or d_m today and see if we can get some information that will help.

LoudmouthLee · Post Post #398 (ISO) » Fri Mar 10, 2006 4:09 am

My personal vote is for Norinel, if the SK's going to kill me tonight.

I believe that will be the best for the towwn.

Norinel · Post Post #399 (ISO) » Fri Mar 10, 2006 6:01 am

KingPin wrote:If there is a chance for the SK to still win, why would the SK come forward and accept losing to help the town, which is against him also?

Because there's a good chance the town won't have time to lynch him, and both the town and the SK need to deal with the mafia to win.

vikingfan wrote:B) Aelyn could be scum copping a gambit of SK and hoping to lynch a townie to help the mafia along.

We definitely need to consider this possibility, although I'll stand by my opinion that Aelyn's much more likely to be SK than mafia. Easiest way to do this is for the real SK, if they aren't Aelyn, to kill Aelyn tonight, because he's almost certainly mafia if not SK and the SK needs to get rid of mafia as much as the town does. If Aelyn is actually a night kill-immune GF, things get a little trickier, but I'm hoping DG's guilty investigation means that isn't the case.

LML wrote:Uhm, I have modded and played in games where a cop finds the SK innocent.

Well, you're the one who allegedly knows what the cop PM says.

Anyway, I would recommend, if anything, having me killed overnight. Don't waste a lynch here.

I would've suggested it if you hadn't done so first, but you bringing it up makes me think you might be the NK-immune GF, much in the same way that someone under heavy pressure asking to be investigated is a GF tell.

Unfortunately, I've resigned myself to being killed. It's a pity to have the town lose for it.

This is both overly rhetorical and incorrect even if you are pro-town.

My personal vote is for Norinel, if the SK's going to kill me tonight.

I believe that will be the best for the towwn.

You've said something along these lines several times this game, but never why. I'm starting to think it's because I'm the only one who's been in this situation and knows how the town can handle it.

Jaguar wrote:I'd say we go after Kingpin or d_m today and see if we can get some information that will help.

That's about what I'd been thinking.