Micro 193 - HD had a Greater Idea (Mafia)! [GAME OVER]

[Human Destroyer]

Votecount

Votecount 1.2

(2)

Grimgroove

- ChannelDelibird, TheTrollie
(2)

JasonWazza

- EspeciallyTheLies, Cheery Dog
(1)

ChannelDelibird

-

(TheTrollie,)

Guyett
(1)

Mac

- Grimgroove
(1)

Guyett

- DrDolittle
(0)

DrDolittle

-

(Grimgroove)

(0)

EspeciallyTheLies

-

(DrDolittle)

(2)

Not voting

-

(Cheery Dog,)

Mac, JasonWazza

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

The deadline is July 6, 2013 at 8:05 AM EDT. Countdown to deadline:

(expired on 2013-07-06 08:05:00)

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Love this VC style

Didnt realize I was voting for JW. I dont see a problem with cheery also voting a "non-person". When they come around or get replaced, it can be evaluated. For now, nothing else has struck me.

[JasonWazza]

Oh i'm here, never posted here so yeah.

gonna read up what i missed.

[JasonWazza]

Going off the discards, i would probably vote CDB.

The RQS looks scummy as fuck.

VOTE: ChannelDelibird

[EspeciallyTheLies]

His RQS seems town to me but could be scum trying to find something to pound into a lynch. Null. All 5 of his posts are .. eh. JW, what about his discard makes you think he's scum over anyone else?

[Guyett]

I've looked through Cheery dogs ISO as I've found him somewhat suspicious

post 10
I'm not really happy with people linking me into why they would or wouldn't do something, as far as I'm concerned the 2 discarded roles are quite different and I find it quite strange that you would discard such a powerful role. I mean scum role with a killing power during the night and a single day kill too!!! That is a very very powerful role in any game... let alone a 9 person game. The only drawback is that it is unlikely that there would be any other Mafia members so you would effectively be a serial killer. This gets me thinking about what role would be better than that role....

post 33

I doubt it, my logic was that the supersaint power is useless for the win condition.... the role you discarded has powers very useful for its win condition.

post 34
Eh not exactly... vengeful townie is more useful than supersaint werewolf as if the vengeful townie is lynched they can choose who to take out with them, supersaint doesnt have that option. Also vengeful townie can take out a scum player which helps townies as there is more townies in the game to continue... this is not the case with werewolf as there is no guarantee that there would be other werewolves to continue the fight.

post 42

I would have thought it is quite obvious... I'm quite new here and I think I worked out why. Surely you would have been able to see why... perhaps you are playing a bit dumb for the laugh?

post 59
A vote for an inactive player...
If Jason had been viewing the thread it could be seen as scum lurking but I think he just forgot about this game. Voting based on activity is a bit of a scum tell imo. As for your posts in 63 and 65 they are very wishy washy reasons for voting for Jason.

post 68
then why vote for Jason? surely a vote for an active player to get some reads would have been more proactive?


Looking through your posts it looks like you are active lurking... there is no scumhunting going on imo
therefore
UNVOTE: CBD
VOTE: Cheery Dog

[JasonWazza]

His RQS seems town to me but could be scum trying to find something to pound into a lynch. Null. All 5 of his posts are .. eh. JW, what about his discard makes you think he's scum over anyone else?

The fact that it's a town Mason is what is putting me off.

Also the RQS is bad, because regardless of what we say, it doesn't influence what the second role we have is.

For example, Player X has said he prefers scum, he discarded a town card, he is an easy mislynch, regardless of the fact it's probably more likely his second card is town.

This is what CDB is quite obviously setting up because there is no point to the question.

[DrDolittle]

I don't quite understand why Mason is a scum discard. There is a low chance that there are another Mason in the game, thus rendering the Mason role effectively a VT.
Furthermore, the probability that the second card is town is independent from the first card. Thus, I realize that going off discards (especially those that are shitty) is actually pretty ridiculous. The only "strong" discard that we had was that of Cheery Dog's 1 shot Mafia Day Vig, and glancing at the roles, there are no mafia roles (except maybe governer but not really) that are better than the Day Vig. For me, that would fairly certain rule out that Cheery Dog is mafia.

On the other hand, I don' t think that the RQS was that horrible. It did get the game started. Considering how little scum there are this game (at most 4), and how many factions, I'm going to take a look at the most likely scum distributions in term of factions.

[Cheery Dog]

post 10
I'm not really happy with people linking me into why they would or wouldn't do something, as far as I'm concerned the 2 discarded roles are quite different and I find it quite strange that you would discard such a powerful role. I mean scum role with a killing power during the night and a single day kill too!!! That is a very very powerful role in any game... let alone a 9 person game. The only drawback is that it is unlikely that there would be any other Mafia members so you would effectively be a serial killer. This gets me thinking about what role would be better than that role....

Extra kills mean you need to get less mislynches - yes you would require another werewolf for it to be worthwhile, but it's still an powerful weapon.

In terms of powerfulness, I think there's probably only 3 scum roles available that do get classed at about the same level as my discard, which I believe includes werewolf supersaint. (the others being Mafia One-shot Governor and Werewolf One-shot PGO - possibly one of the Alien Psycho's)

post 33

I doubt it, my logic was that the supersaint power is useless for the win condition.... the role you discarded has powers very useful for its win condition.

I disagree with yours being useless for your win condition (unless no other werewolves in the game)
The role I ended up choosing may be useless for my win condition as well, depends on what exists. (Actually I probably should have checked the role list of other roles earlier, I thought for some reason there were more roles that may have effects with my role)
My discarding reason was to not choose the same alignment as the first round of choices and to also have the possibly of anybody else getting dayvigs to be confirmed town. (and a talking point)

post 34
Eh not exactly... vengeful townie is more useful than supersaint werewolf as if the vengeful townie is lynched they can choose who to take out with them, supersaint doesnt have that option. Also vengeful townie can take out a scum player which helps townies as there is more townies in the game to continue... this is not the case with werewolf as there is no guarantee that there would be other werewolves to continue the fight.

If you claim as a supersaint, then the town is likely to direct who they want to hammer you. (or so with the 50/50 flip that you're town)

post 59
A vote for an inactive player...
If Jason had been viewing the thread it could be seen as scum lurking but I think he just forgot about this game. Voting based on activity is a bit of a scum tell imo. As for your posts in 63 and 65 they are very wishy washy reasons for voting for Jason.

post 68
then why vote for Jason? surely a vote for an active player to get some reads would have been more proactive?

I'm able to get reads on people without voting them, and inactives who I've recently seen just post on the prod as scum. (Micro 186 just finished where Jason had been doing that), I'm heavily suspicious of them seemingly doing it again.
It does more depend on whether he comes back on his own again now. (but then HD has a much stricter prods=replacement policy than I did - though there is more time between the prods)

[DrDolittle]

And I deliever.
In a 4 scum game
0.04459554: 1 scum group
0.432656734: 2 scum Groups
0.450154985: 3 scum Groups
0.072592741: 4 scum Groups

In a 3 scum game
0.108489151 1 scum group
0.593640636 2 scum groups
0.297870213 3 scum groups

In a 2 scum game
0.313868613 1 scum group
0.686131387 2 scum groups

Gee DrDo, what does this all mean? Well, it means that we are overwhelmingly likely in dealing with 2 (and less likely 3) scum groups. Furthermore, all indicated that it is almost certain that there is a lone wolf(alien/scum) running about.
This is actually really bad, as we would potentially suffer 2 losses per night, and we would only have 2 mislynches.

[JasonWazza]

I'm able to get reads on people without voting them, and inactives who I've recently seen just post on the prod as scum. (Micro 186 just finished where Jason had been doing that), I'm heavily suspicious of them seemingly doing it again.
It does more depend on whether he comes back on his own again now. (but then HD has a much stricter prods=replacement policy than I did - though there is more time between the prods)

To be fair, it was because i didn't have this topic in my "view your posts" area, now that it is i will be more active.

I don't quite understand why Mason is a scum discard. There is a low chance that there are another Mason in the game, thus rendering the Mason role effectively a VT.
Furthermore, the probability that the second card is town is independent from the first card. Thus, I realize that going off discards (especially those that are shitty) is actually pretty ridiculous. The only "strong" discard that we had was that of Cheery Dog's 1 shot Mafia Day Vig, and glancing at the roles, there are no mafia roles (except maybe governer but not really) that are better than the Day Vig. For me, that would fairly certain rule out that Cheery Dog is mafia.

On the other hand, I don' t think that the RQS was that horrible. It did get the game started. Considering how little scum there are this game (at most 4), and how many factions, I'm going to take a look at the most likely scum distributions in term of factions.

In this sort of game, i do believe Mason is MORE of a scum discard, having a confirmed Day 1 is good, having a confirmable claim is even better.

And even if your by yourself, you possibly can catch people trying to fake claim solo mason.


Also that RQS was horrible, also how is 4 scum "little"?

P-Edit:

Spoiler: big load of crap

And I deliever.
In a 4 scum game
0.04459554: 1 scum group
0.432656734: 2 scum Groups
0.450154985: 3 scum Groups
0.072592741: 4 scum Groups

In a 3 scum game
0.108489151 1 scum group
0.593640636 2 scum groups
0.297870213 3 scum groups

In a 2 scum game
0.313868613 1 scum group
0.686131387 2 scum groups

Gee DrDo, what does this all mean? Well, it means that we are overwhelmingly likely in dealing with 2 (and less likely 3) scum groups. Furthermore, all indicated that it is almost certain that there is a lone wolf(alien/scum) running about.
This is actually really bad, as we would potentially suffer 2 losses per night, and we would only have 2 mislynches.

What does that mean for us?

Drum roll please

FUCK ALL

[Grimgroove]

And I deliever.
In a 4 scum game
0.04459554: 1 scum group
0.432656734: 2 scum Groups
0.450154985: 3 scum Groups
0.072592741: 4 scum Groups

In a 3 scum game
0.108489151 1 scum group
0.593640636 2 scum groups
0.297870213 3 scum groups

In a 2 scum game
0.313868613 1 scum group
0.686131387 2 scum groups

Gee DrDo, what does this all mean? Well, it means that we are overwhelmingly likely in dealing with 2 (and less likely 3) scum groups. Furthermore, all indicated that it is almost certain that there is a lone wolf(alien/scum) running about.
This is actually really bad, as we would potentially suffer 2 losses per night, and we would only have 2 mislynches.

What is the point of this exposé?

[JasonWazza]

What does that mean for us?

Drum roll please

FUCK ALL

[Grimgroove]

I had not seen this was the "big load of crap" you were referring to.

I'm agreeing with Guyett's case on Cheery Dog when it comes to Cheery Dog voting JasonWazza. He seems very reluctant to give out any strong reads, and even claims that if he wouldn't be voting a formerly inactive player,h e'd be voting nobody. This on the fence-sitting-business is something that will always rub me the wrong way.

The 1-shot DayVig discard seems to point to Cheery Dog not being scum, but "ruling it out" (as Dr. Dolittle suggests) goes way too far. Seeing how Dr. Dolittle is fond of statistics and has already stated that the odds of another card being something are practically unrelated to the discarded card, he must realize that Cheery Dog could have drawn an Alien role or something. And even if he didn't, I could imagine some picking a Mafia Goon over a Mafia 1-shot Dayvig simply for being able to use the discard as an argument. I realize this is WIFOM, but so is assuming the discard makes him town.

[JasonWazza]

Hey Grim, why did you RVS instead of voting based on discards?

[Grimgroove]

I didn't find the discards very telling either way.

[Mac]

All I see from #84 is a bunch of nothing that looks like an effort at doing something.

Jason can you explain #89 please? Why does it matter if he rvs'd or voting based on discards?

I kinda like Guyett's vote; also curious as to why Jason thinks that town mason is the worst role to throw away? (Or whatever you said to that effect)

[Grimgroove]

How do you feel about my vote on you?

[DrDolittle]

The 1-shot DayVig discard seems to point to Cheery Dog not being scum, but "ruling it out" (as Dr. Dolittle suggests) goes way too far. Seeing how Dr. Dolittle is fond of statistics and has already stated that the odds of another card being something are practically unrelated to the discarded card, he must realize that Cheery Dog could have drawn an Alien role or something. And even if he didn't, I could imagine some picking a Mafia Goon over a Mafia 1-shot Dayvig simply for being able to use the discard as an argument. I realize this is WIFOM, but so is assuming the discard makes him town.

The only "strong" discard that we had was that of Cheery Dog's 1 shot Mafia Day Vig, and glancing at the roles, there are no

mafia

roles (except maybe governer but not really) that are better than the Day Vig. For me, that would fairly certain rule out that Cheery Dog is

mafia

.

Spoiler: DrDo's big load of crap

And I deliever.
In a 4 scum game
0.04459554: 1 scum group
0.432656734: 2 scum Groups
0.450154985: 3 scum Groups
0.072592741: 4 scum Groups

In a 3 scum game
0.108489151 1 scum group
0.593640636 2 scum groups
0.297870213 3 scum groups

In a 2 scum game
0.313868613 1 scum group
0.686131387 2 scum groups

Gee DrDo, what does this all mean? Well, it means that we are overwhelmingly likely in dealing with 2 (and less likely 3) scum groups. Furthermore, all indicated that it is almost certain that there is a lone wolf(alien/scum) running about.
This is actually really bad, as we would potentially suffer 2 losses per night, and we would only have 2 mislynches.

What is the point of this exposé?

What I had in mind while doing the computation is
1) I wanted to do a computation after learning VBA
2) Too see how well the "If he is scum, then he is equivalent to SK, and therefore supersaint/vengeful is useless" holds under stats scrutiny (It doesn't)
I actually realized that the computation I did was not very helpful after I finished, but I don't think it is completely useless, and I felt obliged to share it since I finished.

[Mac]

How do you feel about my vote on you?

I am untroubled by it.

[Human Destroyer]

Votecount

Votecount 1.3

(2)

Grimgroove

- ChannelDelibird, TheTrollie
(2)

JasonWazza

- EspeciallyTheLies, Cheery Dog
(1)

ChannelDelibird

-

(Guyett,)

JasonWazza
(1)

Mac

- Grimgroove
(1)

Guyett

- DrDolittle
(1)

Cheery Dog

- Guyett

(1)

Not voting

-

(JasonWazza,)

Mac

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

The deadline is July 6, 2013 at 8:05 AM EDT. Countdown to deadline:

(expired on 2013-07-06 08:05:00)

[JasonWazza]

Jason can you explain #89 please? Why does it matter if he rvs'd or voting based on discards?

also curious as to why Jason thinks that town mason is the worst role to throw away? (Or whatever you said to that effect)

#89 was seeing what he would say, that and i think voting based on discards seems slightly more town then just RVSing (that's probably me personally but meh)

For the second part

In this sort of game, i do believe Mason is MORE of a scum discard, having a confirmed Day 1 is good, having a confirmable claim is even better.

And even if your by yourself, you possibly can catch people trying to fake claim solo mason.

[Human Destroyer]

Mod Note

ChannelDelibird is being prodded.

[ChannelDelibird]

Balls and/or fuck. Catching up tomorrow.

[TheTrollie]

Balls and/or fuck. Catching up tomorrow.

it's and....

somehow this setup is just weird on-forum...im so used to fast pace greater idea