Sorry for the long post
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LyingBrian wrote:P.S. i really don't think you need to apologize to Don Gaetano, elvis_knits... his arguments still have holes, mostly assumptions...
Well, I have to admit that my arguments against you are based on assumptions, but unless you have out-of-thread information, more or less all arguments in mafia are based on assumptions. However, I made my assumptions very clear, and nobody has explained to me what part of my assumptions are illogical.
I'll post my argument one last time to make everything clear.
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To make my argument valid, all of the following assumptions must be correct:
1. There's more than one scum group and atleast one serial killer in this game. (If not then 3 nightkills would be hard to explain)
2. Atleast one of the serial killers has to be the only person left in the game to win. (As is usualy the case)
4. LyingBrian can't be nightkilled. (Providing he's telling the thruth)
If those assumptions are correct, then my argument makes it IMHO almost impossible that LB is pro-town, so here goes:
If LB was pro-town and the town didn't lynch him (remember that we started the game with a cop, so his claim could easily have been proven) then the only way a serial killer could win would be if there were 3 scum left in the endgame. (if not, then the best thing a serial killer could hope for is a draw)
Since there's more than one scum group, the scum can kill each other at night, and we can lynch scum during the day. If you combine that with all the other facts in this game, the chances of there being 3 scum left in the endgame are so small that it wouldn't even be funny. (well of course they're higher now than they were when the game started, due to an unfortunate night and a no lynch
) If someone tried to calculate the odds, they would find out just how small the chances of that happening are. Simple logic tells you that it's way to close to zero.
Based on those assumptions and that argument, I'd say it would be a gamebreaker if LB was pro-town and un-nightkillable, and if he lied about his ability then "Lynch a Liar" applies.
Please tell me if I'm missing something here, yesterday a lot of people didn't agree with this argument, if people still don't agree then please tell me what you think is wrong with it. If people do agree with the assumptions, and can't find any mistakes in the argument, then LB more or less has to be scum.
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At the end I just want to repeat that I'd really like to know what part of my assumptions and argument people disagree with if they think it's wrong. If I'm mistaken then atleast tell me where the mistake is.