Micro 52: Speedygorge Mafia (GAME OVER!)

[penguin_alien]

I would posit that my slot is unlikely to have been vetoed since it was started with someone with a short track record (and replaced by my own short track record, but that's neither here nor there) and the same would go for Eidolon and Buckwild. Unless either has some outstanding experience on the site or games with others I'm not seeing.

Since scum doesn't have to NK, I think we're best off voting our top scum suspect. Missing scum puts us at LyLo next day phase with the same problem of trying to hit scum or in the event of 4-person LyLo (an odd [or even!] proposition) a VT if we don't hit Chosen today. I think my logic is getting less articulate as the hour grows late here. At any rate, we're better off with two tries at hitting scum than playing the random odds of outguessing Chosen vs. VT in my opinion. Plus I'd rather have more people that look like solid townies around in the next day phase. Say we kill Yates and he's Chosen, then scum kills me, or vice versa. You're at endgame with both of your scum suspects, as are Buckwild and Hyperion. Have fun with that.

[Yates]

Wow - I woke up to check the thread or just hammer before going V/LA for the holidays but this is some good conversation.

I don't know what to make of the fact that Hyperion hasn't been hammered by Om Nom yet. I feel like if he was scum, that hammer would have been dropped yesterday. The only motivation for scum-Om to not hammer Hyperion is if Hyperion is Town and not Chosen. I guess it's possible scum-Om would be trying to introduce some wifom to get us to second guess our target.

Of course, the other long shot possibility is that scum-Penguin or scum-Buck is already voting for Hyperion and hoping to pin the hammer on Town-Yates or Town-Om. Of course, that's based on confirmation bias and Hyperion flipping Chosen.

Ugh. If nothing changes, I'll hammer in 4 hours. I just don't see a reason to vote anyone besides Om at this point.

[Buckwild]

I'm a she or her, darn it.

I think the last part is implying that we should lynch someone likely to have been vetoed?

From the Hyperion-scum perspective, we'd have Buckwild and Om of the Nom as the pushees/Chosen.
From the penguin_alien-scum perspective, we'd have Om of the Nom and Hyperion as the pushees/Chosen.
From the Om of the Nom-scum perspective we'd have penguin_alien and Hyperion as the pushees/Chosen.
From the Buckwild-scum perspective we'd have Om of the Nom and Hyperion as the pushees/Chosen.
From the Yates-scum perspective *I think* the closest we have is Hyperion and Buckwild as the pushees/Chosen, although there was some consideration of penguin_alien and Om of the Nom as well scattered in there. That makes me think there's no way he's scum, but if the actual scum concurs with this, it could throw off other Chosen reads.

Correct me if anyone thinks anyone else has been pushing two different people more strongly, but this is what I'm coming up with based on the day's activity.

Actually, I think scum would be best served by making one solid push rather than splitting their focus, particularly in the event that Yates is one of the Chosen. This would be the best way to seem to be town trying to find the last scum. By which philosophy I'd conclude that you (Om of the Nom) and I are the only ones really pushing a single target, and for both of us that's Hyperion.

I see problems with lynching me or Yates (aside from the old standby of, 'I am the only person I know to be town 100%, so I am the least optimal lynch from my POV). In Yates' case, it's because a scum not pushing his lynch could be abandoning it due to the fact that I suspect the suggestion that Yates is scum would get one laughed into the noose at this point. If Yates is one of the two Chosen, scum is better off aiming for the second Chosen and NKing Yates post-Chosen #1 lynch. In the case of my hypothetical lynch, I cannot help but feel that you'd be my second choice for scum but for Hyperion being rather exponentially more scummy. Which makes your assurances that you were suggesting I be lynched at the start of this day purely from a town perspective less than...reassuring. It could also be read as scum-you seeing which target would stick better and going after the lower hanging fruit in the form of Hyperion.

I love the analysis. I am about to get on a flight, but will be able to post something constructive again after/on black friday? While our views may have changed, I think using what we have put out so far is the correct way to analyze things. I'll come back to Penguin's post when I can.

[Buckwild]

Wow - I woke up to check the thread or just hammer before going V/LA for the holidays but this is some good conversation.

I don't know what to make of the fact that Hyperion hasn't been hammered by Om Nom yet. I feel like if he was scum, that hammer would have been dropped yesterday. The only motivation for scum-Om to not hammer Hyperion is if Hyperion is Town and not Chosen. I guess it's possible scum-Om would be trying to introduce some wifom to get us to second guess our target.

Of course, the other long shot possibility is that scum-Penguin or scum-Buck is already voting for Hyperion and hoping to pin the hammer on Town-Yates or Town-Om. Of course, that's based on confirmation bias and Hyperion flipping Chosen.

Ugh. If nothing changes, I'll hammer in 4 hours. I just don't see a reason to vote anyone besides Om at this point.

Please don't hammer. We have good conversation right now as you said and I want to think this through a little more before doing so. When is the deadline? If it is soon, I will try to post thoughts now.

[Buckwild]

I'm a she or her, darn it.

I think the last part is implying that we should lynch someone likely to have been vetoed?

From the Hyperion-scum perspective, we'd have Buckwild and Om of the Nom as the pushees/Chosen.
From the penguin_alien-scum perspective, we'd have Om of the Nom and Hyperion as the pushees/Chosen.
From the Om of the Nom-scum perspective we'd have penguin_alien and Hyperion as the pushees/Chosen.
From the Buckwild-scum perspective we'd have Om of the Nom and Hyperion as the pushees/Chosen.
From the Yates-scum perspective *I think* the closest we have is Hyperion and Buckwild as the pushees/Chosen, although there was some consideration of penguin_alien and Om of the Nom as well scattered in there. That makes me think there's no way he's scum, but if the actual scum concurs with this, it could throw off other Chosen reads.

Correct me if anyone thinks anyone else has been pushing two different people more strongly, but this is what I'm coming up with based on the day's activity.

Actually, I think scum would be best served by making one solid push rather than splitting their focus, particularly in the event that Yates is one of the Chosen. This would be the best way to seem to be town trying to find the last scum. By which philosophy I'd conclude that you (Om of the Nom) and I are the only ones really pushing a single target, and for both of us that's Hyperion.

I see problems with lynching me or Yates (aside from the old standby of, 'I am the only person I know to be town 100%, so I am the least optimal lynch from my POV). In Yates' case, it's because a scum not pushing his lynch could be abandoning it due to the fact that I suspect the suggestion that Yates is scum would get one laughed into the noose at this point. If Yates is one of the two Chosen, scum is better off aiming for the second Chosen and NKing Yates post-Chosen #1 lynch. In the case of my hypothetical lynch, I cannot help but feel that you'd be my second choice for scum but for Hyperion being rather exponentially more scummy. Which makes your assurances that you were suggesting I be lynched at the start of this day purely from a town perspective less than...reassuring. It could also be read as scum-you seeing which target would stick better and going after the lower hanging fruit in the form of Hyperion.

Damn, the deadline is fast approaching so here is my quick shpeel. Everyone agrees with the Hyperion lynch, with the exception of Hyperion of course. Regardless of whether he is scum or chosen, we cannot distinguish that at this point. We all have an idea of whoever is second scummiest, including Hyperion (in his case the two he would place as scum). Lynching someone else right now, assuming they are not scum, would still leave a likely Hyperion lynch tomorrow because we would still suspect him. Killing him now either wins the game or leaves us with more clues for a better informed lynch tomorrow. Everyone has voiced their opinions at this point and finishing the Hyperion lynch makes sense. Hyperion if you really are town, it would help to voice your thoughts on me as well, as someone mentioned earlier, before the lynch.

Happy Thanksgiving for those in the US!

[penguin_alien]

...keep in mind if we want Hyperion lynched, we don't need to do anything, as lynches work on a plurality basis. So Yates, please don't hammer and end discussion.

[Yates]

I didn't. Obviously. lol

I am V/LA until likely Monday. Gobble Gobble!

[Om of the Nom]

The reason I haven't hammered is because I'm still trying to decide if my strategy I proposed earlier could work or not.
Also because I'm lazy and plurality lynches at deadline anyway.


In my dream, Hyperion got lynched and flipped scum (I'm not joking about this) :P

[Hyperion]

honestly i am seriously doubting if i am chosen. I realize this may be wifom, but I actually do think I am a regular townie.

[Om of the Nom]

it took me forever, but i finally realised what the flavor is actually about :V

[Maestro]

Current VC: 3.2

Om of the Nom (L-2) Hyperion
Yates

drmyshotgun

(L-3)
Hyperion

Eidolon

(L-1) 2 - penguin_alien, Buckwild
penguin_alien

RobertMontana

(L-3)
Buckwild (L-3)

Not Voting: Om of the Nom, Yates

With [5] alive and kicking it will take [3] votes to Lynch.
You may not "No-Lynch". Right now, [Hyperion] was lynched at deadline.

Speaking of which, deadline in is (expired on 2012-11-24 01:20:15)

~Maestro

[Om of the Nom]

Might as well get this over with now
VOTE: Hyperion

[Maestro]

A LYNCH HAS BEEN REACHED!

Current VC: 3.FINAL

Om of the Nom (L-2) 1 - Hyperion
Yates

drmyshotgun

(L-3)
Hyperion

Eidolon

(L-0) 3 - penguin_alien, Buckwild, Om of the Nom
penguin_alien

RobertMontana

(L-3)
Buckwild (L-3)

Not Voting: Yates

Hyperion has been Lynched.
He was a

Chosen Townie

.

Night 3 begins now.

[Maestro]

penguin_alien has been killed Night 3. She was a

Vanilla Townie

.

CURRENT VC: 4.1

Om of the Nom (L-2)
Yates drmyshotgun (L-2)
Buckwild (L-2)

With [3] alive and kicking it will take [2] votes to Lynch. You may not "No-Lynch".
Right now, [a random player] will be lynched at deadline.

Deadline is in (expired on 2012-12-11 18:30:00)

[Yates]

So I'm either alive because I'm the other Chosen Townie and Om is scum OR because I have a Town read on Buck and Buck is scum.

[Om of the Nom]

God fucking damnit, I was expecting to die tonight.
Whoever is Chosen doesn't matter anymore, they can be NK'ed or endgamed now that one of them is dead.
Also I told you all that Hyperion was Chosen goddamnit.

Yates is likely to be town, I'm conf. town to myself and Buck is scum because PoE and also earlier suspicions.
However at some point I'm going to double check if I'm confident in these reads. I request that neither of you vote before I can finish that, I don't want one of you to lose the game for me and the rest of the town.

[Om of the Nom]

So I'm either alive because I'm the other Chosen Townie and Om is scum OR because I have a Town read on Buck and Buck is scum. :neutral:

The last Chosen townie could have been killed last night regardless of Chosen status, does this affect the first half of your sentence at all?

[Buckwild]

The penguin kill was interesting. I thought Yates was going to die for sure since he seemed the most town. It could have been a kill by scum-Yates to have me and Om go at each other today, which was obviously coming if we were both going to end up in Lylo. I don't see a reason for scum-Om to do this except to throw me off him.

Yates, according to Penguin's post 570, he thought Om and Hyperion were scum/chosen. And he thought that you thought I and Hyperion were scum/chosen. Do you disagree with his original thoughts? A penguin kill may have been a way to keep hope for him today as Penguin appeared to be aiming for him as well. (Which was actually the reason I was debating between Penguin v Om for scum after yesterday's lynch)

Yes Om, he was going to be either Chosen or Scum. The fact that you "knew" he was chosen means little to me for scum would know more than anyone else.

DRMY/Yates had been playing town like for most of the game and being scum would be ridiculously surprising here. My thoughts go back to the whole fiasco in post 376 where DRMY left the game claiming to be angry at Om's style of play and use of abusive language. Perhaps this is not a town or scum read, but it did seem odd he was angry enough to just leave. Was Om playing differently than usual because he was the last scum and needed to get through3 more days?

Om's recent post seem very similar to my posts in the beginning of each day. "I request that neither of you vote before I can finish that, I don't want one of you to lose the game for me and the rest of the town." Is he using my style because it works?

I'll also do a full ISO on both of you soon...

[Om of the Nom]

I've never even heard of you outside this game, why the fuck would I use your style?

Gunny's replace out is not a towntell at all, we've played together so much before and he knows how I play and that I can get abusive. The replace out is null, if not slightly scummy, since I didn't really see that much of a reason to replace out.

Let me be the first vote in LYLO actually, if you both think I'm scum then it means I can't quickhammer, and since I know I'm town it means I'll have time to think instead of being lynched before I can do anything.

[Buckwild]

I agree with your last statement.

[Yates]

I'm okay with having Om place the first vote since I do think he is more likely scum than Buck.

"The last Chosen townie could have been killed last night regardless of Chosen status, does this affect the first half of your sentence at all?" As to this? I guess all it does is introduce even more wifom. I agree with Buck. I logged in every day expecting to see my invite to the dead QT. Interestingly, that's the only reason I'm questioning my Town read on Buck now. Then again, Om is smart enough to know how this game works and that keeping me alive would make me question it. Then again, PA also had a Town read on Buck and was leaning scum on Om so either of us dying leads to this same scenario.

[Om of the Nom]

Call this WIFOM, but if I were scum I would have killed Yates because IMO he's the only person who I haven't shown suspicion on so an attack on penguin instead of him would have been more natural.
I didn't realise that Chosen townies could be killed or endgamed after one had died until after someone (possibly Hyperion?) pointed it out.
It's likely that either me or Buck is Chosen, since what's the point in getting rid of a Chosen if they're easily mislynchable? I highly doubt you are Chosen in this case Yates. And since I know I'm town and I think Buck is likely scum I think I'm the Chosen one here.

Still haven't read up, not feeling the best today though (also it's hot as fuck, 38C (100F), might have to wait till tomorrow.

[Yates]

100F? WTF are you??

That's a good point, though. I came into this morning thinking I was spared because I was Chosen. I didn't realize scum could have killed Chosen last night with one gone. This gives me even more WIFOM to think about.

Also, you showed suspicion on me the day I replaced in, Om.

[Yates]

Actually, to that point, I think Buck and Penguin are the only ones that never cast suspicion on me or my slot.

[Om of the Nom]

100F? WTF are you??

That's a good point, though. I came into this morning thinking I was spared because I was Chosen. I didn't realize scum could have killed Chosen last night with one gone. This gives me even more WIFOM to think about.

Also, you showed suspicion on me the day I replaced in, Om.

I'm in Melbourne, Australia :P

I know I showed suspicion on you then, I was talking about yesterday though.