Micro 14: Think Twice (Day 2) *Sunshine Icon Here*

[Timeater]

lol he just admitted to being scum

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

*facepalm* I hate that sort of thing. I admit NOTHING. Please use different terminology.

Saul, it was originally me deciding I didn't want to go through the torturous agony of convincing you all I'm town, so yeah. Then for about the half-minute before the unvote it was a gambit to try to get one scum to vote, then unvote quickly.

Then I realized how crap that idea is. You don't need to point it out.

[saulres]

Until I have definite decision on tim, ice or cobbler. Which is probably at the hammer, really.

Why not saulres?

Siv, haven't answered this yet either. And I'm wondering the same thing myself. Threw me off totally when I hit it. Were you still trying to suck up to Tim's reads there, after he was (again) challenging your play?

[IceGuy]

were you* onsite, meaning did you have site presence (post elsewhere, too lazy to look it up)

If I remember correctly, I went to sleep with you at no or one vote and woke up to you having hammered yourself.

First point, I'm accusing you of trying to discredit tim so that we don't sheep him onto you, as before his self-hammer he proclaimed unchanging votes on you.

So you're thinking people would think I'd be scum and yet listen to what I have to say about Timeater?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

So you're thinking people would think I'd be scum and yet listen to what I have to say about Timeater?

I don't know HOW you get this, but no.

Until I have definite decision on tim, ice or cobbler. Which is probably at the hammer, really.

Why not saulres?

Siv, haven't answered this yet either. And I'm wondering the same thing myself. Threw me off totally when I hit it. Were you still trying to suck up to Tim's reads there, after he was (again) challenging your play?

I thought you were town. I was fairly sure you were town. I went with that, and was trying to decide on who of the rest was scum.

[IceGuy]

So you're thinking people would think I'd be scum and yet listen to what I have to say about Timeater?

I don't know HOW you get this, but no.

This was exactly what you said.

[saulres]

Okay, did my pairings analysis. Understand, this is looking at how the possible scumpairs would work together, with hypothesized scum reasoning. I've left out individual scumminess; those have for the most part been addressed elsewhere. I also left out things such as Siv restarting a wagon on Cobbler if I felt there was nothing to be gleaned from it.

What I did was look for things that I thought would give an associative tell, and then analyze each scumteam possibility for if that would fit what happens. I gave four rankings based on that analysis: Pairing likely, pairing possible, pairing unlikely, or nothing to be gleaned.

I've spoilered the details because wow this got long.

Spoiler: Events and Analyses

Event: Cobbler's first post of the game he votes Siv, putting him at L-1. Siv responds by voting Cobbler.
Associative Analsyis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Cobbler wouldn't be worried about a quickhammer, and Siv would be distancing. This could easily have been set up beforehand (or even realtime at that point). Pairing likely.

Cobbler-Ice team: Cobbler wouldn't be worried about a quickhammer. Siv as town might have a legitimate read. Pairing possible.

Siv-Ice team: Cobbler as town would put Siv at L-1? Pairing unlikely.

Event: Iceguy's 69
Associative Analysis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Nothing to be gleaned.

Cobbler-Ice team: Ice setting up one townie and a bus of his partner. HOWEVER, states intent to vote his partner "when the next VC comes and I'm sure to not accidentally hammer" when it's not hard on page three to figure out the VC. In any case, then the VC comes out, it's clear it won't be a hammer, and Ice doesn't lay the vote down. Pairing likely

Siv-Ice team: Ice sets up scumreads on two townies instead of his partner. Siv 79 gives another "pseudovote" on a townie. When Tim votes, Ice says "nobody hammer" -- to gain towncred it Cobbler does flip. Pairing likely.

Event: Siv's 92, taking Cobbler off of L-1
Associative Analysis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Siv could have done it a post earlier, but that post was only four minutes earlier, and scum could still talk then so Cobbler could have told him to unvote? Pairing possible.

Cobbler-Ice team: Nothing to be gleaned.

Siv-Ice team: Siv unvotes to take the pressure off of Ice for not hammering. Pairing possible.


Event: Siv's 118, reads (Tim and me town, Ice null, Cobbler scum)
Associative Analysis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Cobbler's upcoming disappearance could have been discussed in private. Maybe Cobbler did so and left in the hopes that his scumbuddy would gain towncred for voting him while he was out. I go back and forth on this being pairing possible, or just another one of my crazy theories which would then make it pairing unlikely.

Cobbler-Ice team: Nothing to be gleaned.

Siv-Ice team: Trying to convince Tim and me to vote Cobbler? Pairing possible.


Event: Siv's 142, puts Ice at L-1 (Tim has first vote)
Associative Analysis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Pairing likely.

Cobbler-Ice team: Nothing to be gleaned

Siv-Ice team: Tim had

just

posted reads of Ice as scum (strong) and Siv as scum (weak). Siv's trying to gain towncred in Tim's eyes. Pairing possible.

Event: Siv's 145, takes Ice off L-1, puts Tim at L-1 (Cobbler has first vote). He unvotes after Tim (no one else) votes:
Associative Analysis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Pairing likely.

Cobbler-Ice team: Nothing to be gleaned.

Siv-Ice team: In the preceeding post I did not hammer Cobbler. So trying to see if I'd hammer Tim? But he unvotes before I get a chance. Pairing possible.

Event: Siv's 164, putting Tim at L-1 (Cobbler has first vote)
Associative Analysis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Hoping townie would hammer so they could set him up? And then neither of them unvoting when the pitfalls are pointed out? Pairing likely.

Cobbler-Ice team: Nothing to be gleaned.

Siv-Ice team: Sets up his buddy to hammer. Pairing likely.

I feel everything after this is WIFOM and not worthy of investigation at this point.

Now, for each "pairing likely", I will give a +2, for each "pairing possible" I will give +1, and for each "pairing unlikely", I will give a -2, just to have some easy visual of my conclusions. Summing them up:
[*]Cobbler-Siv team: +2 +1 +(either +1 or -2) +2 +2 +2 = 9 + (either +1 or -2) so either 10 or 7.
[*]Cobbler-Ice team: +1 +2 = 3
[*]Siv-Ice team: -2 +2 +1 +1 +1 +2 = 5

So clearly, the most likely pairing is Cobbler-Siv, with the second likelihood Siv-Ice. The common factor? Siv.

I think we should vote Siv today. If we weren't in LyLo I'd place a vote now, but since we can't afford a mislynch -- does anyone see anything wrong in my above anlaysis (or its methodology)?

[IceGuy]

I recommend letting Cobbler vote Siv.

[Timeater]

I agree, Cobb vote Siv please.

[Timeater]

I honestly dont care if Siv is town whatever fuck it

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Saulres, the BIG problem with that is that you're counting way more events for me than for cobbler/ice.

Pairing unlikely doesn't happen there that much.

Counting only events where "nothing to be gleaned" did not happen.

Cobbler/Siv: 6 Events
Cobbler/Ice: 2 Events
Siv/Ice: 7 events.

When you look at the average points per event, i'm not necessarily higher than either of the other two.

[Timeater]

why are you arguing with saulres

you realize im the one you have to be pleading to right

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

So you're thinking people would think I'd be scum and yet listen to what I have to say about Timeater?

I don't know HOW you get this, but no.

This was exactly what you said.

"This is convenient for scum ice wanting to keep tim off you."

What? What part of this says people would think you'd be scum? It says, in a very bad way admittedly, that you're trying to discredit tim.

And also, what makes people think I'm scum other than my being an idiot, as I really doubt intelligence has anything to do with alignment. And this is the sorta thing I called out ice for. Meh.

PEdit: I dislike initiating things. I don't have stuff to plead to you, to be honest.

[Cobblerfone]

Vote: Siv

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

I'm not sure on it being cobb, but it could be.

I think it's ice.

VOTE: Iceguy

Anyway, who's the buddy bussing me, guys?

[IceGuy]

Siv, get your vote off me so I don't get quickhammered.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Who will quickhammer? Cobbler/saul? IMO that's a rather unlikely pairing.

Anyway, will run through and make sure it is completely unlikely first.

UNVOTE: IceGuy

[IceGuy]

Who will quickhammer? Cobbler/saul?

If you were town, you'd know there would exactly one scenario from your viewpoint where I can be quickhammered, and that's Cobbler/saul.

IMO that's a rather unlikely pairing.

It's also unlikely from my viewpoint, but I don't want to lose the game just because I'm wrong and some VI randomly decided he'd vote me in LyLo.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

It's not random. I'm fairly sure you are scum.

Then again, I do need agreement from everyone else.

[IceGuy]

It's not random. I'm fairly sure you are scum.

You don't actually have an argument for that, so I consider it randomly.

[Timeater]

lol so they haven quickhammered

[Timeater]

*twiddles thumbs*

[Timeater]

Someone please vote siv so i can hammer yawn

[IceGuy]

Someone please vote siv so i can hammer yawn

I'll do this unless Cobbler and saulres give a very good reason why I shouldn't.

[Timeater]

siv has admitted to being scum on several occasions uptil now I dont see why we have to wait for anyone