Minvitational Game 1

[mole]

I agree. :)

[Samadhi]

I analyzed no lynch.

There is 34/48 chance of winning if we no lynch. And that doesn't take into account one scenario which occurs 1/16th of the time (my brain was starting to hurt) where the end game is one confirmed innocent, one mafia left, the cop, the doc and two townies going into night.

Since I did this at work I'll recrunch when I get home (and show my work if you want).

[mith]

It's that low? I must've not gotten enough of it done, it wasn't looking like the Mafia had very many chances with no lynch.

[Werebear]

Wait! No! I'm... I'm... not the doc. I really really wish I was, but... I'm not. This means I'm next to swing, unfortunately. It's been fun, and GO TOWN!!!

Werebear, signing off.

[jeep]

If Werebear is townie:
6 living, 2 mafia, 2 investigated innocents and myself.

So
1/3 of the time, I find the last innocent and we win four sure.

2/3 I find a mafia:
1/4 mafia kills innocent I haven't investigated, we win
3/4 mafia kills someone I investigated
2/3 it's a townie, we win

1/3 that is doctor, so we have 2 mafia, one known; 2 investigated innocents and myself. Two concealed. We have 1/2 of winning and 1/2 of losing

we win 58.33% of the time... less often than I thought originally.

I'll have to work the numbers with no lynch.

-JEEP

[mith]

Vote: Werebear

Don't want to rush things, but that *is* what we'd decided on, so... (sorry in advance if you're not scum, werescum)

[jeep]

oops,

vote: werebear

-JEEP

[quercitron]

Werebear: 2 (mith, jeep)

Not voting: everyone else.

q

[mole]

Vote: Werebear

58.33%?

1/3 of the time, I find the last innocent and we win four sure.

33%

2/3 I find a mafia:
1/4 mafia kills innocent I haven't investigated, we win 2/3 x 1/4 ->

17%

3/4 mafia kills someone I investigated
2/3 it's a townie, we win 2/3 x 3/4 x 2/3 ->

33%

1/3 that is doctor, so we have 2 mafia, one known; 2 investigated innocents and myself. Two concealed. We have 1/2 of winning and 1/2 of losing 2/3 x 3/4 x 1/3 x 1/2 ->

8%

Total:

91.67%

Or, the mafia has to an investigated doctor (2/3 x 3/4 x 1/3 -> 17%, same as above) and even then they only have a 1/2 chance of winning...

[Jalyn]

Jeep, Could the discrepancy in the numbers be because you are not including the possibiity that Werebear could be mafia?

vote:Werebear

[quercitron]

The Town leads Werebear to the lynching pole, and asks him for some last words.

WEREBEAR'S LAST WORDS: "Er, I'm a Townie"

THE TOWN'S RESPONSE: "Yeah, we've heard that one before..."

And guess what! Werebear was just part of the nice, normal group of...

BERNINI MAFIA: Er, I take that back. They're not nice, although the whole "killing people at Night" thing is pretty standard for the Mafia.

Which is what they're going to do now! Since the 6 remaining players are going to sleep and all. One of them, by the way, is not very pleased at all about the current state of affairs. Most of them are happy....

Werebear (Bernini Mafia) - lynched by the Town

IT IS NOW NIGHT 4. SEND CHOICES.

[mole]

Bah, didn't realise the last day of this was lost as well.

Not that there was much to say about it.