Mafiascum.net

Just a quick thread to post this. I went through and attempted to find all of the living player slots in ongoing games. I counted them up by game type. I did include games in pregame.





9/6/13

164 slots out of 22 games (7.45 p/g) 20%
128 slots out of 14 games (9.14 p/g) 16%
76 slots out of 7 games (10.86 p/g) 9%
131 slots out of 15 games (8.7 p/g) 16%
29 slots out of 3 games (9.67 p/g) 4%
156 slots out of 13 games (12 p/g) 24%
83 slots out of 13 games (6.38 p/g) 10%

4/10/13

128 slots out of 17 games (7.53 p/g) 18.82%
93 slots out of 10 games (9.3 p/g) 13.68%
70 slots out of 7 games (10.0 p/g) 10.29%
131 slots out of 17 games (7.7 p/g) 19.26%
35 slots out of 3 games (11.67 p/g) 5.15%
114 slots out of 9 games (12.67 p/g) 16.76%
109 slots out of 16 games (6.81 p/g) 19.09%

680 slots out of 79 games (8.61 p/g)

3/12/13

124 slots out of 16 games (7.75 p/g) 19.56%
90 slots out of 9 games (10 p/g) 14.20%
53 slots out of 6 games (8.8 p/g) 8.36%
79 slots out of 13 games (6.1 p/g) 12.46%
27 slots out of 2 games (13.5 p/g) 4.26%
140 slots out of 9 games (15.6 p/g) 22.08%
121 slots out of 17 games (7.1 p/g) 19.09%

634 slots out of 72 games (8.81 p/g)

12/8/12

91 slots out of 12 games (7.6 p/g) 16.82%
82 slots out of 10 games (8.2 p/g) 15.16%
64 slots out of 6 games (10.7 p/g) 11.83%
87 slots out of 9 games (10.9 p/g) 16.08%
10 slots out of 1 game (10.0 p/g) 1.85%
117 slots out of 10 games (11.7 p/g) 21.63%
90 slots out of 13 games (6.9 p/g) 16.64%

541 slots out of 61 games (8.87 p/g)

6/26/12
98 slots out of 13 games ( 7.5 p/g) 15.4%
135 slots out of 15 games ( 9.0 p/g) 21.2%
68 slots out of 7 games ( 9.7 p/g) 10.7%
95 slots out of 10 games ( 9.5 p/g) 14.9%
13 slots out of 1 games ( 13.0 p/g) 2.0%
229 slots out of 15 games ( 15.3 p/g) 35.9%

638 slots out of 61 games (10.5 p/g)

10/1/11
155 slots out of 23 games ( 6.7 p/g) 17.92%
106 slots out of 11 games ( 9.6 p/g) 12.25%
97 slots out of 11 games ( 8.8 p/g) 11.21%
195 slots out of 20 games ( 9.8 p/g) 22.54%
47 slots out of 4 games ( 11.8 p/g) 5.43%
265 slots out of 19 games ( 13.9 p/g) 30.64%

865 slots out of 88 games (9.83 p/g)

8/20/11:
184 slots out of 26 games (7.1 p/g) 22.5%
104 slots out of 10 games (10.4 p/g) 12.7%
80 slots out of 8 games (10.0 p/g) 9.8%
153 slots out of 16 games (9.6 p/g) 18.7%
68 slots out of 5 games (13.6 p/g) 8.3%
230 slots out of 18 games (12.8 p/g) 28.1%

819 slots out of 83 games (9.9 p/g)

This is interesting as I assumed there would be FAR more mini-theme player slots than any other games, but that turns out not to be even remotely true. I think mini-themes are usually designed to go a lot quicker than other games. Also, it can't help that there was a recent clog in the mini-theme circuit. Newbie games are notoriously slow, so it's not too much of a surprise that a lot play there. Large Themes are, well, large so it's not too surprising that it outnumbers other games.

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While I agree entirely with your hate for people who do not post accurate lists of people who are alive in the first post, I'm not sure what you're researching here.

Vi wrote:While I agree entirely with your hate for people who do not post accurate lists of people who are alive in the first post, I'm not sure what you're researching here.

You're not sure what or why?

The what is pretty easy: how many people are currently alive in any game across the site. Obviously many people are alive in more than one game, so it's "slots" rather than "players."

The why is a little more difficult to answer as it kind of has a lot of answers and just one: I was curious. I did the work for myself, but I figured it might be mildly interesting to other people. I provide it without much comment as I'm not trying to prove a point or anything with it.

The other answers are that I think it helps provide a more complete snapshot of the game system itself along with the queue data, etc. It might be interesting to do this again in 3 months and see how it changes with time.

zoraster wrote:The why is a little more difficult to answer as it kind of has a lot of answers and just one: I was curious.

That's as good a reason as any

Actually, the 230 player slots active in Large Theme games reminds me of a theory someone had that I was talking about a while ago... actually... that was with you.

Never mind me then (>")>

Actually, what would be really cool is some measurement of how long game Days are on average in different types of games. It might be easier to measure that directly, though.

I know the obvious application: this is the sort of data that can lead to a more refined version of my first law, which is useful for everybody who cares about the mod queue length. (The point is that active games slot might be a better number to input then total player slots.)

Yeah, sounds like a refinement to Thok's Law.

Nice work, Zor.

I actually have some criticism of Thok's first law that I've been meaning to write. I think it has some problems, but it's still useful.

EDIT: Just to preview that criticism it's basically based on Thok's logic. He used a poll that reported 85% of people were interested in moderating a game. His assumption when he came to 10 games a person in order to reach equilibrium relies on the assumption that all poll respondents will want to moderate a game at all times and immediately. An assumption that is obviously incorrect as I'd imagine there are only a few people who would like to moderate a game at all times.

No, I'd say his hypothesis is pretty close to your data. Not everybody all the time, either.

Actually we're probably doing a little worse than 1:10, since the Mini Queue lengths are not getting any better, and neither is Large Theme. Not sure about Open...

zoraster wrote:An assumption that is obviously incorrect as I'd imagine there are only a few people who would like to moderate a game at all times.

Only a few?

zoraster wrote:I actually have some criticism of Thok's first law that I've been meaning to write. I think it has some problems, but it's still useful.

For what it's worth, I have some criticism of my first law that I've been meaning to ponder. (Basically that player game slots aren't exactly what we care about: there's a time factor as well.)

That said, the basic idea of my first law is a useful starting point for a discussion and points out that there's a fundamental obstacle limiting the effect of suggestions to speed up the queues. Refinements may lower the number of games we need people to play on average to keep pace with the mini queues' modding requirements from 10 games per person to 6 games per person, but it's utterly unreasonable to expect people to play much more than 2 to 3 mini games on average.

Absolutely. And I guess the truth is that it's usually just used to show that there are always going to be more mods than players, which is fair and true. I just think it may overemphasize how fast it'll grow.

zoraster wrote:

Mini-Normal Games:

80 slots out of 8 games (10.0 p/g)

Mini-Theme Games:

153 slots out of 16 games (9.6 p/g)

Large Normal Games:

68 slots out of 5 games (13.6 p/g)

Large Theme Games:

230 slots out of 18 games (12.8 p/g)

why would themed games have relatively longer later days?

mykonian wrote:

zoraster wrote:

Mini-Normal Games:

80 slots out of 8 games (10.0 p/g)

Mini-Theme Games:

153 slots out of 16 games (9.6 p/g)

Large Normal Games:

68 slots out of 5 games (13.6 p/g)

Large Theme Games:

230 slots out of 18 games (12.8 p/g)

why would themed games have relatively longer later days?

I don't think they do? What do you mean?

the averages of the themed games are lower. I was assuming (and I could very well be wrong here) that themes and normals started out with similar amounts of players. If so, themed games apparently spend more time in the later days, since that would make their averages lower.

(I know, small samples, poor assumptions, etc)

myko, themed games are more open to other killing roles (Serial Killers and Multiple Mafia Groups for example) as well. So it's not only that they have more days, it's also the fact that there tends to be more killing roles in themed games.

mykonian wrote:the averages of the themed games are lower. I was assuming (and I could very well be wrong here) that themes and normals started out with similar amounts of players. If so, themed games apparently spend more time in the later days, since that would make their averages lower.

(I know, small samples, poor assumptions, etc)

an interesting observation, but I'm not sure a .4 difference in players per game can be entirely attributed to more players in later game. I'm not sure killing roles really would account for the difference though.

I'll do it again in 3 months or so and see if it's the same then

Hey guys, I don't know if this relates to this, but I have a question. Which sections do you feel are focused in higher skilled games? I'm interested in this because sometimes it seems some are a bit more casual than others, and this matters to me because not only do I play for fun, but I also play to win. Generally I want to have a challenge, and want to be able to improve and see players with much higher skill than me so I can learn a thing or too.

Or do you think it only depends on the setup?

I mean, essentially. Does more players = higher chance of games with good skill sets, or no? (I don't want to distract from the topic, but I was wondering if the numbers could affect this)

Ranmaru wrote:I mean, essentially. Does more players = higher chance of games with good skill sets, or no?

Not in my experience; it's very 'random', mostly determined by playerlist and to a smaller degree by setup, in my experience. Larger games have a higher chance to have a VI, for example, but also that VI is a smaller percentage overall (usually). Complex setups can either attract good playerlists or be totally distracting and derailing to 'basic mafia' skills.

Updated this list with the current numbers. They are:

155 slots out of 23 games ( 6.7 p/g) 17.92%
106 slots out of 11 games ( 9.6 p/g) 12.25%
97 slots out of 11 games ( 8.8 p/g) 11.21%
195 slots out of 20 games ( 9.8 p/g) 22.54%
47 slots out of 4 games ( 11.8 p/g) 5.43%
265 slots out of 19 games ( 13.9 p/g) 30.64%

865 slots (gain of 46 slots from 8/20) in 88 games (gain of 5 games)

Comparison to the previous:
Game Type, October 1st total |

155
106 |
97 |
195 |
47 |
265 |

Please keep in mind that these are slots currently alive. This does not mean unique players alive.

hey are you including duplicates?

Like say the same person is in two games.

In post 18, zoraster wrote:Updated this list with the current numbers. They are:

Newbie Games:

155 slots out of 23 games ( 6.7 p/g) 17.92%

Open Games:

106 slots out of 11 games ( 9.6 p/g) 12.25%

Mini-Normal Games:

97 slots out of 11 games ( 8.8 p/g) 11.21%

Mini-Theme Games:

195 slots out of 20 games ( 9.8 p/g) 22.54%

Large Normal Games:

47 slots out of 4 games ( 11.8 p/g) 5.43%

Large Theme Games:

265 slots out of 19 games ( 13.9 p/g) 30.64%

865 slots (gain of 46 slots from 8/20) in 88 games (gain of 5 games)

Comparison to the previous:
Game Type, October 1st total

Slot adjustment

|

Percent of total slots adjustment

Newbie Games:

155

-29 -4.58%

Open Games:

106

+2

|

-0.45%

Mini-Normal Games:

97

+17

|

+1.1%

Mini-Theme Games:

195

+42

|

+3.84%

Large Normal Games:

47

-21

|

-2.87%

Large Theme Games:

265

+35

|

+2.54%

Please keep in mind that these are slots currently alive. This does not mean unique players alive.

Not bad, these numbers are holding stable.

6/26/12
98 slots out of 13 games ( 7.5 p/g) 15.4%
135 slots out of 15 games ( 9.0 p/g) 21.2%
68 slots out of 7 games ( 9.7 p/g) 10.7%
95 slots out of 10 games ( 9.5 p/g) 14.9%
13 slots out of 1 games ( 13.0 p/g) 2.0%
229 slots out of 15 games ( 15.3 p/g) 35.9%

638 slots out of 61 games (10.5 p/g)

Comparison to the previous:
Game Type, June 26th total |

98
135 |
68 |
95 |
13 |
229 |

Please keep in mind that these are slots currently alive. This does not mean unique players alive.

Obviously we're still recovering from the crash, especially in the case of large normals (although % of slots playing large themes is actually up).

But a couple of things that REALLY stand out: Opens are way, way up (in fact the only category that has more slots now than in October). I attribute this to the far better game selection and Hoopla's influence there. The other is that Mini-Themes are way, way down. I don't know how to account for this. It's been enough months that nearly all mini-themes should be post-crash.

So I'm not sure what's causing this except maybe a shift in tastes, possibly brought on by well known mods running fewer mini-themes and more large themes, and a better selection of interesting open games as an alternative to minis.

The mini theme games tend to be smaller than the maximum of 13, at an immediate glance.

Additionally, keep in mind that a lot of the players who would usually be in mini themes right now were probably playing Team Mafia.