Mini 167 - Les Miserables Mafia. Game over!


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Post Post #25 (ISO) » Sun Mar 13, 2005 12:49 am

Post by gootentag »

:roll: Forgive my posting in another thread... didn't see this game was up yet. Sorry.

I have seen the musical twice, seen three diferent film adaptations in two diferent languages, and began reading the book once. I grew disheartened as I was doing background work on a production of the show I had been cast in and the theatre closed due to legal issues and a general lack of funding. But anyway.

Thenardiers are probably scummy as a given. I am prone to think that Javert may be a SK or Godfather. SK fits because he is not "in league" with the Thenardiers, Godfather fits as he would apear to be "Above the law." There are more convoluted claims that I could immagine such as something happening if Javert targets Valjean or vice versa, but that is neither here nor there.

Content to withold my vote for now. May add one later.
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Post Post #26 (ISO) » Sun Mar 13, 2005 12:54 am

Post by EmpTyger »

MeMe:
Talk about nitpicking at words... (and yes, that’s deliberately ironic). I feel that you are doing the very thing you accuse me of doing- you are avoiding the points I raised by flinging any nitpick and accusation you could find back at me.
MeMe [23] wrote:
EmpTyger wrote:Eh, perhaps I am metagaming too much, although I guess I see it like your speculating on the translation between character and role in the case of Javert. Part of the game.
Let me remind you that I was responding to
your
idea about the possibility of the cop coming forward.
I made a distinction since I thought that you just established, and it was generally agreed, that it would be more fun (among other reasons) to not take advantage of the setup. So I distinguished between discussing the merits of a cop coming forward (independent of setup) which I had brought up, and analyzing likely aspects of special characters and roles (dependent on setup) which you had brought up.

Really, this isn’t even an important point, but if you’re going to pick out a sentence to make my motives seem nefarious, I feel I should show that that wasn’t the case. And aesthetics of the relative levels of fun aside, it seems suspicious to me to advocate discarding a potential strategy without considering whether it would be good or bad. Limiting the town’s options doesn’t seem like it helps the town.
MeMe [cont.] wrote:
EmpTyger wrote:I’d rather wait until hearing everyone’s answer before answering your "why would this matter" question, if that’s alright?
I don't mind waiting -- but for someone doing a lot of heavy questioning, it's a bit odd that you seem to be avoiding answering one.
Yes, I’m not answering it- for the purpose of not influencing the responses of those who haven’t yet responded- which I would hardly call odd. But I’m hardly avoiding it. I said exactly when I would answer it. I’ll take your “I don’t mind waiting” at face value and try to ignore the insinuations.

Honestly, my reason for waiting isn’t a big deal, and I feel that when I do finally say it, the reaction is going to be “so why’d you make a big deal about not saying it earlier?”.
MeMe [cont.] wrote:
EmpTyger wrote:In [10] you said you weren’t sure whether a non-Javert cop should come forward, but would reconsider if someone was a non-Javert cop. I was pointing out if someone came forward then there is no longer anything to consider- the non-Javert cop has already come forward! So it seemed you left it ambiguous whether a non-Javert cop should come forward, so I asked for clarification. Which you kind of did in [20], although you still are hedging.
Well your explanation here is exactly what I thought it was...nitpicking at my words. There's no way you can honestly say that I'm "hedging," I went out of my way to be perfectly clear about what my meaning was. Or are you still confused? Be specific about your allegation of "hedging" -- if you can't, I'll have to wonder why you're trying so hard to make me look less than forthcoming.
I almost think I better claim confusion, because I can’t complete figure out what you’re talking about.

By “hedging” I meant that you could be interpreted as meaning that you were in favor of a non-Javert cop claiming just as easily as that you were against a non-Javert cop claiming. I can’t find anyplace where you are less ambiguous on this matter, much less “out of [your] way to be perfectly clear”. Regarding a non-Javert cop, you have [10], which I thought I already explained didn’t make any logical sense; and you have [20], in which you say you are “generally…against” but “it might be a decent idea”. What am I missing?

Now, is that specific enough? I’m not “trying so hard to make [you] look less than forthcoming”. I’m trying to figure out why you aren’t.
MeMe [cont.] wrote:
EmpTyger wrote:
MeMe [cont] wrote:1) sanity is always in question (unless the role specifically states sanity)<snip>
Pardon my inexperience, because I feel silly for bringing up something that seems very obvious. But, I mean, wouldn’t it defeat the purpose of insanity for the role to specifically say so?
I'll pardon your inexperience, but your tone is beginning to feel less innocently inquisitive and more accusatory. Sanity is always in question unless the role specifically states sanity. The only specificity I've ever seen in a cop role is "you are guaranteed sane" or the like. Did you really think I was suggesting that a role might say "you are paranoid" or "you are reverse"? And why didn't you consider it from the "you are sane" angle rather than the ridiculous "you are insane" one? Again, it feels as though you're working hard to make me look bad, but you're having to bend over backward to do so.
You’re the one who just implied I was “[making you] look less than forthcoming”, so watch the accusations of being accusatory, hm?

I didn’t see any point to sanity if it’s the mod gives out that information explicitly, which was what you were implying. So I questioned you about something else you seemed to be saying which made no sense. And btw, I afterwards ran a forum search and found less than 5 games that used a guaranteed sane cop. Moreover, to quote the wiki page, “When a Moderator uses these roles [sanities], the player receiving the role is only told his/her role is Cop.” So, I don’t think it’s ridiculous that I never heard of “guaranteed sanity”.

As for “Again, it feels as though you're working hard to make me look bad, but you're having to bend over backward to do so.”: May I say, likewise? I feel I’m identifying points that seem suspicious, and probing to see why, but rather than address them, you bend over backwards to accuse me of framing you.
MeMe [cont.] wrote:
EmpTyger wrote:
MeMe [8] wrote:
vote: gootentag
<snip>
This wasn’t explicitly labeled as random. Was it?
What's the purpose of asking "was it"? You can see perfectly well that it wasn't.
Animal, vegetable, or mineral? Should I ask the obvious follow-up, or am I to assume that there’s a reason you’re not giving a reason? Do you want me to ask what your reason was for not voting randomly, or shall I merely inquire about your reason for not yet giving a reason? Perhaps I should ask what’s the purpose of asking “what’s the purpose of asking ‘was it’?”?

To answer your question: in the 2 games I’ve played there have been votes that seem to be random which weren’t marked as such, and in at least one case there was an additional reason. And, you know, I kind of thought the reason why Person A voted for Person B might possibly turn out to be relevant to a game of mafia, just maybe

[Please forgive that burst of sarcasm. I hardly expected to regret not tacking on an “If not, then what?” to a simple question.]


LML:
LoudmouthLee [24] wrote:<snip>
Vote: EmpTyger


Rationale:

Point 1- He asked the initial question about everyone's knowledge of Les Mis. If ET is mafia, then he would likely be able to ascertain his claim chances if he knows the knowledge base of his opponents. Very.. questionable.

Especially after we see post 22:
I’d rather wait until hearing everyone’s answer before answering your "why would this matter" question, if that’s alright? It probably doesn't matter at this point, but I might as well wait. I think it’s just bob and gootentag’s status which are uncertain, so after they indicate.
See above in response to MeMe. But also, I don’t really understand this reason for suspecting me. Numerous people have already come forward to claim familiarity with the book, so if I were a mafia trying to fabricate a claim, then how do what the last 2 have to say affect anything? I really think I’m missing something in your accusation.
LoudmouthLee [cont.] wrote:Point 2- ET seems to have a "cop fear", especially one about a sane cop. Javert might have been "discredited" somewhat, but Javert (a very likely role) is still a cop.

Spot me if I made a mistake. I'll be happy to correct.
I’m not quite sure what you’re basing my perception of a “cop fear” on, so I’m not quite sure whether you’ve “made a mistake”. Honestly, I’ve never heard the term “cop fear” before. So I guess I should ask you to clarify this too?
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Post Post #27 (ISO) » Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:00 am

Post by EmpTyger »

gootentag, you posted just as I was finishing up mine, and I'm a bit too tired to reply now. However, since it was a lurker vote, I'll
unvote: gootentag
and lurker
vote: Changling bob
in the meantime.
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Post Post #28 (ISO) » Sun Mar 13, 2005 4:03 am

Post by Changling bob »

Sorry I haven't posted yet. I also haven't read the thread fully yet.

ADVANCED WARNING: Until next Sunday I'm going to be really busy with rehersals for a show I'm in on Saturday, and my posting may be sporadic or non-existant. Hopefully I'l be able to get on at lunch in school, but I may not be able to.

Anyway, I'll print the thread now so I can read through it. Or do my physics coursework. Or both.
I guess this should change now ¬_¬
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Post Post #29 (ISO) » Sun Mar 13, 2005 4:29 am

Post by Changling bob »

Having read the thread:
LoudmouthLee wrote:There's a lot going on here. Let me first say that after some serious thought, I will withdraw my idea about Javert being scum. After looking at MY role, I can assume who I think the scum are. Javert would not be one of them.
Any chance on elaborating on (a) what you know about who the scum are or (b) how you know who the scum are? The obvious answer to (b) is that you are scum, but I don't think anyone would be that stupid. Unless you're cuning enough to know that we're going to think that no-one's that stupid.

Also, I don't think cop claiming on day one is a good idea, even if a guilty is found. If a cop got innocent, then this should probably only be said if they're about to be lynched. If guilty, I think counter claims could be too easy to fabricate given the whole discussion about how likely certain characters are to be cop.


Oh, and as for experience of the story, I've read the plot synopsis that Aelyn linked to...
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Post Post #30 (ISO) » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:23 am

Post by Aelyn »

A mysterious man, calling himself Victor Hugo, stands up at the front of the crowd. It seems he’s been keeping track of who’s voting for who. He utters the following:


EmpTyger
- 2 (Mr Stoofer, LoudmouthLee)
Gootentag - 1 (MeMe)
MeMe - 1 (vikingfan)
Changling Bob - 1 (Emptyger)

8 alive, 5 to lynch

Don’t ask how he managed to speak in bold type.
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Post Post #31 (ISO) » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:35 am

Post by Mr Stoofer »

Well, amusing as the MeMe vs LML catfight is, it seems to be generating more heat than light. To be honest, my first reaction too what MeMe said about a "non-Javert" cop was suspicion (like LML), so I am not surprised that LML jumped down her throat. On the other hand, having read the whole thread now, I am not convinved that my initial reaction was the right one.

But I am
much
more interested in MeMe's non-random vote for gootentag. I appreciate that you may have been trying to make somehting happen without drawing attention to yourself, but since your vote has now been put under the microscope, that's not going to happen. So I for one would like to know a little more about why you think gootentag is suspicious.

Also, what do people think about killing groups? There was only one death last night, but that could have been due to a doc or roleblocker or double targetting. Is it possible that we have an SK in a group this small?

In other news:
* I have not read the book but I have seen the 1978 Film several times. Can someone remind where to find the mod's link?
* I am against any sort of role/character claim at this stage for many reasons including the fact that trying to outguess the mod's allocation of characters to roles is pointless.
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Post Post #32 (ISO) » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:36 am

Post by Mr Stoofer »

Well, amusing as the MeMe vs LML catfight is, it seems to be generating more heat than light. To be honest, my first reaction too what MeMe said about a "non-Javert" cop was suspicion (like LML), so I am not surprised that LML jumped down her throat. On the other hand, having read the whole thread now, I am not convinved that my initial reaction was the right one.

But I am
much
more interested in MeMe's non-random vote for gootentag. I appreciate that you may have been trying to make somehting happen without drawing attention to yourself, but since your vote has now been put under the microscope, that's not going to happen. So I for one would like to know a little more about why you think gootentag is suspicious.

Also, what do people think about killing groups? There was only one death last night, but that could have been due to a doc or roleblocker or double targetting. Is it possible that we have an SK in a group this small?

In other news:
* I have not read the book but I have seen the 1978 Film several times. Can someone remind where to find the mod's link?
* I am against any sort of role/character claim at this stage for many reasons including the fact that trying to outguess the mod's allocation of characters to roles is pointless.
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Post Post #33 (ISO) » Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:46 am

Post by Aelyn »

Mr Stoofer: Here are the links I provided, to a plot summary and a list of characters.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Miserables
http://www.cliffsnotes.com/WileyCDA/Lit ... Num-5.html
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Post Post #34 (ISO) » Sun Mar 13, 2005 8:53 am

Post by MeMe »

Regarding the lack of signifier in my first vote...check my games. In the last 30+ I've played I've used "random" once and "randomish" once. There's nothing
necessarily
to glean from it, though reactions to its simplicity can be interesting.
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Post Post #35 (ISO) » Sun Mar 13, 2005 10:12 am

Post by EmpTyger »

Unvote: Changling bob

Everyone’s posted at least once. I’m also going to wait before placing a new vote.
I don’t mean to be too excessive in terms of prodding- I mean, I have 2 papers due Friday so my own posting will most likely decrease towards the end of the week- but I wanted the game to begin with activity being strongly encouraged.
Read and seen several times, though I'm not at all sure why this would matter.
As I warned, the reason was very minor. I figured there could be a slight chance that mafia could claim ignorance of the book to justify not making what would otherwise be an obvious conclusion. Given the links offered by the mod, it became almost completely moot, but I so no reason not to have such information declared, especially since most already had. I didn’t reveal the reason when asked because it would completely defeat the already diminished purpose of asking. In retrospect, it might not be particularly useful, but I still don’t see how it might have been harmful.

I’ve never played in a themed setup, but I’m having trouble getting the numbers to work for multiple killing groups. Maybe 2 serial killers and no mafia? The mod’s first post, “Players dead, ill, maimed, on the run or otherwise incarcerated:” does seem to imply multiple ways of death, which would point away from simply 1 mafia. But that just as easily could mean a vigilante. I’m not sure that we are able to determine this at this point, since we don’t know whether we have the number of town roles to balance out multiple killing groups- and we all seem to be agreed that we *shouldn’t* reveal that much about the town just yet.


gootentag:
While it seems Javert could be practically any role, as MeMe pointed out in [14], there’s no reason to spook them, regardless of their role. I suppose the same could be argued about Thenardier, but that’s admittedly a much harder case to make.


MeMe:
Okay about the unlabeled vote. Was not aware that was your style.
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Post Post #36 (ISO) » Sun Mar 13, 2005 12:35 pm

Post by vikingfan »

I tend to think that we have one killing group-having two could make for a very quick game, though I suppose that could be Aelyn's intention. Still, for now, I'm buying the one killing group.

As for how people are gotten rid of, I read that opening post to be something like the town booting a player to be different than a mafia's death, not to mention a vig. I'm not sure it's suspicious enough to mull over-Aelyn could have put it in to mess with us. :P
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Post Post #37 (ISO) » Sun Mar 13, 2005 10:31 pm

Post by Changling bob »

vikingfan wrote:Aelyn could have put it in to mess with us. :P
Knowing Aelyn irl, this is likely.

But in a game this small, I doubt there would be more than one killing group. Consider it this way:

If there are two killing groups, starting with 9 players, worst case scenario:
Night 1: 2 players die, 7 left
Day 1: 1 player lynched, 6 left
Night 2: 2 players die, 4 left

By this point, the mafia must surely be in majority, town loses.

Whereas with one killing group, worst case scenario is mafia in majority around day 4 (ish. I haven't actually done the maths for this). And this is given no cop, doc, other roleblocker, special un-nightkillableness, immortals or chickens, so I'm sure the most likely scenario is better than worst case.
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Post Post #38 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2005 3:23 am

Post by EmpTyger »

[I’m not sure where the line is regarding taking advantage of the setup, but to respond to what vikingfan and bob posted:]

Here’s the worst case math (ie: no protections and no mafia lynchings) for 1 killing group:
Night 1: 1 dies, 8 left.
Day 1: 1 lynched, 7 left.
Night 2: 1 dies, 6 left.
Day 2: 1 lynched, 5 left.
Night 3: 1 dies, 4 left.

That looks like a 2 person mafia: the town has 2 chances to find at least 1 mafia.

The only other possibility I see as reasonable is 2 SKs. Again, worst case (ie: no protections, no SK cross-targeting or crossfires):
Night 1: 2 die, 7 left.
Day 1: 1 lynched, 6 left.
Night 2: 2 die, 4 left.
Day 2: 1 lynched, 3 left. *
Night 3: 2 die, 1 left.

[* A very fascinating situation, because the town is better off lynching an innocent! If a SK is lynched, the other SK wins easily on Day 3 with there being only 1 other innocent left. But if both SKs are alive on Night 3, then each can only win by killing the other off. If both “succeed”, then Day 3 only the innocent lives and the town wins!]

The worst case is worse than 1 killing group, but if almost any death is prevented, I think it’s as fair- 2 chances to find at least 1 mafia. It would come down to how strong the innocents’ abilities are.
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Post Post #39 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2005 3:31 am

Post by gootentag »

[quote=Changling Bob]
If there are two killing groups, starting with 9 players, worst case scenario:
Night 1: 2 players die, 7 left
Day 1: 1 player lynched, 6 left
Night 2: 2 players die, 4 left

By this point, the mafia must surely be in majority, town loses.
[/quote]

This is mistaken. Half is not a majority, and I've seen it work out before in a situation with a mafia of 2, a Serial Killer, and a townie of some sort being left. If a Day two mafia lynch occurs (which is unlikely but possible,) the remaining mafia and the SK could kill each other and the town would win. Like I said, unlikely, but possible.

As for the Javert implications, I guess we can put them aside for now. Without either him or another cop showing up dead or alive, it's all speculation anyway. And assumptions can lead to bad things - like in Harry Potter Mafia where it was later discovered that Harry, Hermione, and Ron were the mafia. (NOTE: I haven't read the game, just heard it referenced several times before as a classic case of "Don't outguess the Mod.") I mean, it's
possible
that Jean Valjean - prisoner 24601 - is scum, right? I mean, he is a convicted theif and robber, amirite? :shock:
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Post Post #40 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2005 5:28 am

Post by MeMe »

I think the most likely is a team of two -- the town would have to be extremely strong to have a chance of combatting any of the other possibilities (group of three or 2 killers/killing groups). The fact that we've had a townie die makes the likelihood of a 2-person group feel more solid since we know that not every pro-town role is powered.

gootentag's last post makes me happy to keep my vote on him.
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Post Post #41 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2005 5:35 am

Post by LoudmouthLee »

What are we discussing here?

I mean, we have FACTS to go on here, and instead, we're looking at Mafia logistics. As much as their interesting...

The fact remains that, as of right now, it does not pay to speculate on the killing groups until we have a need to. I feel this discussion is a red herring or sorts, out there to ultimately cause confusion.
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Post Post #42 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2005 5:55 am

Post by MeMe »

Hmmm...could you please list these "facts," Lee?

The only ones I know is that we have a minor character (townie) down.
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Post Post #43 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2005 5:55 am

Post by MeMe »

*one
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Post Post #44 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2005 7:16 am

Post by LoudmouthLee »

Please pardon if you consider this metagaming.. but here's what I ascertained...

1- Emptyger's actions have been rather suspicious thus far, for reasons that you and I have shown thus far.

2- We, currently, have no reason to believe that there are multiple killing groups. Occam's razor reigns supreme here. You're right. We have one dead townie... not two.

This game is too small to be "outguessing" the mod. A few wrong turns, and we're all sleeping with the fishes. Lets go with the "more factual" stuff rather than speculation about killing groups.

If you all find it worthwhile, however, I can't stop you. I just wouldn't want to chase my tail all day.
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Post Post #45 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2005 7:28 am

Post by MeMe »

1 is not a fact, it's speculation
2 is exactly the conclusion I've put forth as most likely...but which you characterized as futile discussion of mafia statistics rather than of facts in your last post
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Post Post #46 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2005 7:39 am

Post by LoudmouthLee »

Posts 37-39 all seemed to be tail-chasing right about now, MeMe. I just find this method of convo to be going nowhere. I'd like EmpTyper to explain his quip here (which I felt never got a good answer)

[quote}I’d rather wait until hearing everyone’s answer before answering your "why would this matter" question, if that’s alright? It probably doesn't matter at this point, but I might as well wait. I think it’s just bob and gootentag’s status which are uncertain, so after they indicate.[/quote]

Why was the answer to this necessary, even after the importance had been "downplayed"?

It seemed to me that you were looking to check everyone's familiarity with the plot in order to figure out the complexity of a future claim.

Hint: You have an English teacher in this Mafia game.
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Post Post #47 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2005 7:40 am

Post by LoudmouthLee »

Posts 37-39 all seemed to be tail-chasing right about now, MeMe. I just find this method of convo to be going nowhere. I'd like EmpTyper to explain his quip here (which I felt never got a good answer)
I’d rather wait until hearing everyone’s answer before answering your "why would this matter" question, if that’s alright? It probably doesn't matter at this point, but I might as well wait. I think it’s just bob and gootentag’s status which are uncertain, so after they indicate.
Why was the answer to this necessary, even after the importance had been "downplayed"?

It seemed to me that you were looking to check everyone's familiarity with the plot in order to figure out the complexity of a future claim.

Hint: You have an English teacher in this Mafia game.

Note: Reposted for clarity.
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Mr Stoofer
Less than scum
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Mr Stoofer
Less than scum
Less than scum
Posts: 3827
Joined: February 25, 2005
Location: London Alignment: Lawful Evil

Post Post #48 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2005 8:38 am

Post by Mr Stoofer »

Perhaps MeMe and LML could put their claws away and concentrate on finding scum instead of scratching each other's eyes out.

Reading the thread again, it seems to me that Emptyger's posts are the most suspicious, trying to draw out information which at this stage of the game would be more use to the scum than the town. I think that LML has a point in the above post [47].

My random vote was already on Emptyger and I am happy keep it there for now.
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LoudmouthLee
LoudmouthLee
Mafia Scum
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LoudmouthLee
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
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Joined: February 15, 2005
Location: New York City

Post Post #49 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2005 8:44 am

Post by LoudmouthLee »

I believe it's a mutual respect between myself and MeMe. (at least I hope :))
"LML = Mafia God" - Pie Is Good
"LML returns, plays one game, wins a Scummie, then leaves again!" - Primate

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