Fall of the Matrix: Game Over!

[Surye]

Lynches of randomly claimed VTs are a bad thing. Lynches of claimed VTs on day one is actually a borderline bad thing (seriously). A lynch of Vez today is near for sure going to be a lynch of town, so naturally, a bad thing.

Really? Damn, I wish I had claimed VT in pregame so I could be "near for sure" innocent in your eyes. This is Mafia, pal. People can lie (seriously).

Experience shows it comes from town from scum at a rate slightly more then game average, so its a town tell. Players like vezok are also near unreadable due to the erratic nature of their play, so I prefer to just lock them in as a slight read early and just make sure they sheep a town read. If I get a town read on vezok and vezok sheeps me or someone else I think is town the entire game, I am happy with it.

Even though this isnt the exact situation my "dont lynch the VT" tell applies, I think that there is enough going here to call vezok town.

What did the VT claim do for your read on him?

Read on what? He doesn't need to post because he is claimed VT. I highly doubt we get a good chance to get a read day one on him, but with 13 to Lynch, we still have plenty of time no matter what.

if he is VT or scum, he will survive the night, and again, no real information on the wagon or analysis. Ugh, i hate d1 VT claims.

[LlamaFluff]

Early VT, miller, etc... you just take them at face value and progress from there. If vezok does nothing scummy, we DONT LYNCH HIM. Just running a lynch through for the claim is going to just waste the day, and I challenge someone to show how its a scum tell. Using "he might lurk" isnt a scumtell either, since the word 'might' is in there.

"By claiming vanilla on the first page he eliminates the possibility of ever claiming a role later in the game" on the other hand, is a minor town tell.

[AGar]

Personally, Yosarian's call for a quick end to day one, no matter how much frustration seems pretty scummy to me. Less information does not help. I'd be more likely to lean in that direction, than Vezok's.

Scumbag #2 found! Considering, you know, Yos actually said he was fairly opposed to a speedlynch on Vezok.

You misinterpreted my post Agar. Vez has narrowed down the PR list and is who I want to lynch.

If town, then lynch?

Howboutnoscott.

---

Jesus christ, let's all stop being retarded for a second. Vezok claimed VT. If he was scum or anti-town of any flavor, he would have had some ridiculous unbelievably retarded claim. It's how he rolls. He is not smart enough to manipulate this. Move your votes onto someone who deserves to be wagonned into oblivion, like DN or Surye or Lain.

---

@Yos

Explain the whole theory of "lynching VTs increases town's odds of success."

[mozamis]

Agar looking town to me.

[Medicated Lain]

(shrug) I don't really care all that much about meta in cases of extreme anti-town behavior. Lynching people who claim VT just improves the town's odds of wining.

(shrug) I don't really care all that much about meta in cases of extreme anti-town behavior. Lynching people who claim VT just improves the town's odds of wining.

But he only claims VT as town.

...

I really dislike trusting any kind of meta that's that specific; if he knows people think that, then he has every reason to claim VT as scum.

My normal response to people who have a habit of claiming VT on day 1 is "Lynch them every time they do until they stop doing it."

The argument you espoused earlier about lynching VT's increasing the towns chance of winning, to mind, sounds like bollocks in this context. What is your rationale for that position?

Yosarian, explain your "lynch all VTs" policy and how it would be pro-toiwn in this context.

Mod fixed quote tags.

(shrug) All else being equal, even if he's no more likely to be scum then anyone else, once someone claims vanilla, it's theoretically better to lynch him then to run up someone else to a claim. The goal here being to get as few claims as possible on day 1, to keep the power roles alive as long as possible. Every claim we get today increases the odds of the scum killing a power role tonight.

Of course we're not actually going to quicklynch him just for that. That was more an expression of frustration then anything else; seriously, when's the last time we quicklynched anyone on day 1 of a large game on mafiascum? Still, I do intend to vote for him once day 1 starts, since I now consider Vezo a better then random lynch. From my point of view, now Vezo is in a position where he's going to have to give me reasons to not lynch him today, rather then the other way around. If you actually have a town read on a claimed vanilla, then you don't lynch him, but if you have no read on a claimed vanilla, you generally shouldn't let him live, especially this early in a game.

Yosarian's posts happened in this order. It took multiple posts of his own, and another post of another player's kind of agreeing (Primate), before he stated it wasn't serious. That's plenty of time to go fishing around for people to follow along. For this, I find him the most suspicious player right now.

However, I have also been thinking about this post:

Surye's confirmation makes the 20th (if I'm counting that right) so I'm comfortable talking about this now.

Eh. Slightly better at least. I'm VT, of course. I think I was VT in my last 6 games? on MS.

Your meta seems to be well established with a few of these other players, which means you either could be playing consistently or choosing to abuse it. We have no way of knowing which is the case. Both are possible, and while that style of play is usually damaging to the town, it is starting discussion. I suppose there is some degree of merit in that.

Players do certainly get better, so it's possible to believe that he could be scum playing on that record. The problem is, that as an outed VT, I would think it's less likely for scum to kill him, looking for power roles instead. To me this says we cannot just trust that he is a townie, because seeing him alive through the night phases won't be a huge shock. For this, I am a bit wary of Vez as well now.

[Porochaz]

Jesus christ, let's all stop being retarded for a second. Vezok claimed VT. If he was scum or anti-town of any flavor, he would have had some ridiculous unbelievably retarded claim. It's how he rolls. He is not smart enough to manipulate this. Move your votes onto someone who deserves to be wagonned into oblivion, like DN or Surye or Lain.

Totally disagree, I don't think he would be able to think of something totally retarded especially with nothing preceding it.

Also by lynching vezok we are either going to lynch an anti town faction or a vt leaving any PR in tact and on top of the that he is a really annoying player and I'm fairly confident even with a vezok vt town lynch, it will actually be a good thing for town further down the line. See succession for proof.

Now where is Frank in all of this.

[Toon Fighter]

Why do people keep calling it a "policy lynch"?

A policy lynch is generally when you lynch someone to try to change their behavior, or to make a point, or something. Lynching a claimed VT isn't a policy lynch, it's a strategic lynch that actively improves the town's odds of winning, all else being equal.

Toon Fighter's post, though, looks pretty odd to me:

DeathNote's post was, however, quite scummy, and contradictory. I think he tried to say what Yos said before, but he made a mistake. That may have been just a slip, but it is scummy nonetheless. I think we need his confirmation to what he really meant by that.

I don't at all get what you're trying to say. If you think he was trying to repeat what I said, then why was it "scummy" or "contradictory"? What "mistake" do you think he made, that may more may not have been a "slip", but is "scummy"? What do you want him to clarify?

This post really feels like Toon Fighter is trying to have it both ways about the death note case, trying to attack Death Note and "sound reasonable" at the same time, and I dislike it.

He said we should lynch vez to narrow down the PR list. Well, that IS scummy. But, if we lynched someone OTHER than Vez, we would narrow down the PR list even more than with lynching Vez (assuming he is telling the truth). Therefore, something is wrong with his argument, and it contradicts itself. What he may have meant is to lynch vezok narrow down the scum list or something, but the way it is phrased, it looks scummy to me. I just didn't vote immediately because the game was just starting, but now I am more confident in my opinion of DN. VOTE: DeathNote

[Mastermind of Sin]

It is my pleasure to announce the second coming of Zindaras, replacing inHimshallibe.

[Primate]

@CPE: Yeah, hi, nice to see you again. You see that Alphainsidious is on the replacement list?

Yos never advocated a speedlynch. I called it a policy lynch because the reasoning for lynching him is detached from the likelihood of him being scum, I get why Yos wants to make the distinction though, strategic lynches is a better term for what he's doing. Yos's position seems based on a very high opinion of power roles relevance in a game. Thinking about it, he's probably right to a certain degree. If, after a wagon, a scummy guy claims vanilla then I would probably be on board. Issue is in a situation like this where the lynch wagon is artificial then we lose a whole bunch of wagonning info and if you get in the mindset that D1 we're gonna lynch vezok you end up with a very unproductive D1 that hurts power role choices and lynch choices from here on in.

*Anyway*

Agar's probably town. I think he's wrong about Vezok not being able to manipulate his scum meta though. It's a little bit bewildering that some people in that other game he linked have such an incredibly low opinion of a player. Seriously, he has to be aware of the fact he claims early and it's plausible that he will get ahead of that with a VT claim. I think it's unlikely, but it's odd to treat it as implausible. There was a bit of speculation about Vezok being unreliable enough that he could be non-VT town. Don't know where that came from, think it's unlikely.

Mozamis looks town.

Surye's take on the relevance of Vez wagon is goodposting.

Can't read llama, yos yet.

I don't understand Medicated Lain's point against Vezok. That he may be scum because he is unlikely to be nigthkilled and will live a while? Is this just you trying to give him a motive for doing it as scum? I don't see how the longer a player is likely to live links to how scummy they are (exception for good players mysteriously avoiding nightkills, which doesn't apply here). I also don't really get what I agreed with Yos on, if you can clarify that.

Deathnote is scummy. He's doing that thing that I hate from policy/strategic/whatever lynches where he's absolving himself of responsibility for the lynch by pushing the blame onto something that the other persons done, leaving him blameless when the Vezok turns up VT like he claimed. I get that this is the entire point of what he's doing and he's public about it, but I can't look at his points without it looking like an excuse to kill a townie.

VOTE: Sensfan
Actively involved with irrelevant Vezok non-town discussion, not involved at all in other discussion.

[vezokpiraka]

For all people there.

I am just a random dude in the matrix. No rolename or specific character.

I still like my vote on DN. I have a town read on poro.

Surye seems scummy, because of the part where he talked to sensfan.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote Count #1:

We don't know who struck first, us or them. But we do know it was us that scorched the sky. At the time, they were dependent on solar power. It was believed they would be unable to survive without an energy source as abundant as the sun. - Morpheus

mozamis (3) - (HezLucky, Kison, MrBuddyLee)
vezokpiraka (3) - (SensFan, DeathNote, Surye)
DeathNote (3) - (AGar, LlamaFluff, Toon Fighter)

Primate (2) - (BrianMcQueso, creampuffeater)
ToonFighter (1) - (Amrun)
SensFan (1) - (Primate)

With 25 alive, it takes 13 to lynch

[vezokpiraka]

unvote
vote DN

Didn't I do this before?

[Mastermind of Sin]

That was your first vote of the game...

[DeathNote]

He said we should lynch vez to narrow down the PR list. Well, that IS scummy. But, if we lynched someone OTHER than Vez, we would narrow down the PR list even more than with lynching Vez (assuming he is telling the truth). Therefore, something is wrong with his argument, and it contradicts itself. What he may have meant is to lynch vezok narrow down the scum list or something, but the way it is phrased, it looks scummy to me. I just didn't vote immediately because the game was just starting, but now I am more confident in my opinion of DN. VOTE: DeathNote

You serious bud? I swear... some people just dont read so here is my simple version again.

Vez claimed VT.
Vez is not a town PR.
Scum now know not to kill Vez.
Vez can be scum.
Everyone else can be a PR.
Vez is safest lynch.

No contradiction whatsoever.

[AGar]

Jesus christ, let's all stop being retarded for a second. Vezok claimed VT. If he was scum or anti-town of any flavor, he would have had some ridiculous unbelievably retarded claim. It's how he rolls. He is not smart enough to manipulate this. Move your votes onto someone who deserves to be wagonned into oblivion, like DN or Surye or Lain.

Totally disagree, I don't think he would be able to think of something totally retarded especially with nothing preceding it.

LOST S1 he claims day rolecop with a result of Ethan Rom on a player. He was a lyncher (Ethan Rom, actually) with his target being his "claimed result." The bluff was quickly seen through. This one was helped by his role PM and a fake-claim I believe he had.

Mafia on Holy Orders he claims to be "a role that if I pick the NK properly, I get their power in a 1-shot variety." He was my scumbuddy. I swear to god, it was that retarded, but somehow people believed it. This one had NO preceding sparks. We were simply goons.

[Primate]

@Deathnote:

He is right that there's a bit of a contradiction but it's a silly one. You are voting Vezok for narrowing down PR possibilities. If you even consider anyone else for a lynch then you are encouraging them to claim and therefore you are also guilty of narrowing PR possibilities.

So if you support any wagon other than the Vezok one you are being internally inconsistent. That's the argument he's making. You said earlier that you are open to lynching someone else, so there's the inconsistency.

I think it's a silly argument because narrowing PR possibilities is a minor point of pursuing people.

[vezokpiraka]

Jesus christ, let's all stop being retarded for a second. Vezok claimed VT. If he was scum or anti-town of any flavor, he would have had some ridiculous unbelievably retarded claim. It's how he rolls. He is not smart enough to manipulate this. Move your votes onto someone who deserves to be wagonned into oblivion, like DN or Surye or Lain.

Totally disagree, I don't think he would be able to think of something totally retarded especially with nothing preceding it.

LOST S1 he claims day rolecop with a result of Ethan Rom on a player. He was a lyncher (Ethan Rom, actually) with his target being his "claimed result." The bluff was quickly seen through. This one was helped by his role PM and a fake-claim I believe he had.

Mafia on Holy Orders he claims to be "a role that if I pick the NK properly, I get their power in a 1-shot variety." He was my scumbuddy. I swear to god, it was that retarded, but somehow people believed it. This one had NO preceding sparks. We were simply goons.

Actually that was Hayl on holy orders. I replaced out before making a claim. IF I was going to make a claim I was going to claim a track on you and buss you to death.

[BrianMcQueso]

What did the VT claim do for your read on him?

I don't like what it has done for the town, but I don't believe it makes him scum. I don't think scum would willingly draw that much attention to themselves so early. His action has still made the town's chances worse, because we are now focused on him instead of catching scum. If he actually is VT, it also increases the scum's chances of hitting a power role on their nightly kill.

Jesus christ, let's all stop being retarded for a second. Vezok claimed VT. If he was scum or anti-town of any flavor, he would have had some ridiculous unbelievably retarded claim. It's how he rolls. He is not smart enough to manipulate this.

No no no no no. You can't make that assumption. That kind of blind metagaming does not help us. I know I just stated that I don't believe him to be scum, but I haven't written off the idea entirely. You're acting like he's a confirmed innocent. He's not.

Deathnote is scummy. He's doing that thing that I hate from policy/strategic/whatever lynches where he's absolving himself of responsibility for the lynch by pushing the blame onto something that the other persons done, leaving him blameless when the Vezok turns up VT like he claimed. I get that this is the entire point of what he's doing and he's public about it, but I can't look at his points without it looking like an excuse to kill a townie.

This is a reasonable point, and one I agree with. But then you go and:

VOTE: Sensfan
Actively involved with irrelevant Vezok non-town discussion, not involved at all in other discussion.

You'll have to clarify this for me, but this is how I'm reading this. You're voting him because he's talking about Vezok, which clearly is the biggest thing to chat about so far. How does talking about that make him scummier than say, the guy you plainly labeled as scummy the paragraph before?

[Primate]

That should be non-townie, sorry.

Mozamis brought up the fact that Vezok could be a non-vanilla townie pro-town role lying about his role. Sensfan spent a several posts actively refuting that.

Sensfan hasn't commented on whether he thinks Vezok is scum or not, he's just emphatically argued that if he is town, he's vanilla.

[BrianMcQueso]

@SensFan: Your logic is based on the false assumption that players play optimally.

@Primate: Thanks for the clarification.

[Zindaras]

(shrug) I don't really care all that much about meta in cases of extreme anti-town behavior. Lynching people who claim VT just improves the town's odds of wining.

But he only claims VT as town. How much does lynching people who are town increase the towns chance of winning?

Do we have any data on his scum game? I'm personally unimpressed by this kind of meta unless it's made explicit by the player. For example, I know someone who has a No-Lie Policy and he's kept it throughout years and years of Mafia play up to the point where everybody believes it. But he is invested in his meta. I do not see any investment from Vez. That means that he has more than enough incentive to betray the meta at a later point.

VOTE: DeathNote

Thanks for helping us skip RVS.

You need to die now.

Vezok is town, and it's all but assured. Vezok is not intelligent enough to manipulate his own self meta. There's no reason, as town, to lynch a town player to "narrow down the PR list." It's just helping scum if anything, narrowing down their choices, thus increasing their likelihood of hitting a power role.

seriously, when's the last time we quicklynched anyone on day 1 of a large game on mafiascum?

Vezok was policy lynched D1 in 27 hours, 34 minutes in Mafia of the Chosen Ones (Thread open to hammer). It took a whopping 45 posts from thread open to hammer.

So roughly 3.5-4 months ago.

This post just feels horribly wrong to me. I am extremely suspicious of anyone confirming other people as being a certain alignment based on metas and assumptions.

Not with you. Why do we assume that because he has claimed VT, he is either VT or scum. How do we know he is not a cop, serial killer, vig etc etc etc
How do you know there arent any other options?

If he's a Cop, then he's not a Townie. Therefore he's lying. But Town doesn't lie. Therefore, he's not a Cop.
If he's a Serial Killer, then he's not Town. Therefore, he's not Town.
If he's a Vig, then he's not a Townie. Therefore, he's lying. But Town doesn't lie. Therefore, he's not a Vig.
By induction, my thesis holds that he's either a Townie or he's not Town.

I just meant he could be town but a PR. (A cop is a townie etc) Though I grant you, I can't see why he would lie about it.
My point really was that I just think we should be entirely neutral about his claim. I do see what you mean. I just think we should ignore it really.
ps induction is inference from experience -you meant a priori reasoning

I'm just going to put it this way: if he goes back on his claim, I'll be doing everything to get him to die. Liars are scum.

Okay, reading the pregame and day so far, I like the Vez bandwagon. Since a lynch would, especially D1 with as little information based on PR due to no n0, be either best case senario, or second to best (scum, or no PR). I'm fine with taking as much time as we want on the actual lynch, however scum and town alike will be likely to lynch him, in either case. Bussing someone who claims VT, especially one that has meta from others as a bad player/policy lynch regardless of the claim, leads little information on the bandwagon itself.

I think unfortunately with his claim, we've lost a chance at a lot of information we could have acquired on D1, and we're going to end it with much less for the PRs to go on in the night.

So,

Vote: Vez

Vote: Surye

Lain's #104 basically describes my entire position on this whole Vez issue. I think Yossy did a slight turn on Vez and seemed to become a lot less vituperative after the backlash. I am wary of Vez because his vanilla claim essentially just gives him a free pass to not get killed until endgame if he's scum.

What did the VT claim do for your read on him?

I don't like what it has done for the town, but I don't believe it makes him scum. I don't think scum would willingly draw that much attention to themselves so early. His action has still made the town's chances worse, because we are now focused on him instead of catching scum. If he actually is VT, it also increases the scum's chances of hitting a power role on their nightly kill.

I've seen scum do the wackiest stuff. This would hardly be an exception.

For all people there.

I am just a random dude in the matrix. No rolename or specific character.

I still like my vote on DN. I have a town read on poro.

Surye seems scummy, because of the part where he talked to sensfan.

Oh wow, you gave us all kinds of insane information that we couldn't possibly know!

Except that it's in the first post.

[vezokpiraka]

@Zindaras: I am a survivalist. I'm more satisfied if I lived till the end then if I won.
If everyone knows I am town when claiming VT they won't lynch so I can get to endgame. If I claim VT as scum day 1 like this they won't believe me anymore and I won't have the same chances of winning.

[Zindaras]

General reads:

-Agar: way too eager to confirm vezok. His posts on the issue give me a bad gut feeling.
-Vezok: I'm honestly leaning slightly to town, despite what I just said. I do dislike the entire claim thing and would honestly hope that he'd not do it again. Also, as a champion of the vanilla role I feel forced to sigh sadly and despair about the whole issue.
-Primate: feels town to me, but seems to disagree with me on basically all reads.
-LlamaFluff & Medicated Lain: These two are the ones that read the best to me. What they post makes sense. I'll have to keep an eye on them because, of course, there's been little scumhunting so far, but they're solidly in the town camp to me.
-Yosarian: I think the Vez lynch is a bad lynch. I dislike the way he went from really wanting to lynch Vez to seemingly state that it wasn't going to happen.
-DeathNote: Is like Yosarian but without the switch. Like I said before, I think the lynch is a really bad lynch, but he looks slightly better to me than Yossy does.

[Albert B. Rampage]

@vezok asked you a question, go back and answer it

[Zindaras]

@Zindaras: I am a survivalist. I'm more satisfied if I lived till the end then if I won.
If everyone knows I am town when claiming VT they won't lynch so I can get to endgame. If I claim VT as scum day 1 like this they won't believe me anymore and I won't have the same chances of winning.

*sighs*

-Surviving to endgame =/= Winning.
-If everyone knows you are town when you claim Vanilla and they won't lynch you so you can get to endgame, you have an extremely strong incentive to claim Vanilla when you're Mafia as well. If everyone knows you are town when you claim Vanilla and you actually manage to keep that particular metagame running, the scum (either SK or Mafia) suddenly have a huge incentive to kill you. And if you don't claim Vanilla, suddenly both Town and Mafia will have an incentive to kill you, because that implies you're either scum or a power role. Hence, your strategy is untenable in the long run.
-Surviving =/= Winning.
-

Surviving =/= Winning

-I cannot stress this strongly enough: survival is not a goal. Look at your win condition. Look at the rules. I don't care whether you live or die. I don't care whether

I

live or die. I care whether we win or not. If you die, sign up for another game. There may be an "i" in "Mafia", but there isn't one in "Town".