/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[SpyreX]

@mod:

Would a roleblocked target know they were roleblocked?

Regardless of answer:

Vote: Roleblocker

I still much, much, much prefer jan/rb to assassin/rb but the more I think about it I don't like daycop with either.

[Rhinox]

second vote: RB

ok with assassin or jan.

@spyrex: "Even a missed assassin gives the some daycop-esque information (while it can be interfered with). I could easily see using one shot early and saving the other."

only if the assassin is told whether the shot fizzled or was otherwise prevented.

Mod: would an assassin be told whether or not they lost an attempt after a failed attempt?

[Patrick]

Votecount

Janitor (5) -- SpyreX, Kmd4390, DrippingGoofball, Ellibereth, Papa Zito
Rolecop (1) -- ooba
Roleblocker (8) -- Hoopla, Ellibereth, Kmd4390, Papa Zito, ooba, VasudeVa, SpyreX, Rhinox
Assassin (3) -- VasudeVa, Rhinox, Hoopla

20 alive, 11 votes to choose.


Deadlines

Number one (2) -- Rhinox, VasudeVa
Number two (6) -- Hoopla, SpyreX, Papa Zito, ooba, Elmo, ekiM

What exactly is the procedure here? If a role gets 11 votes is it then "locked in" and everyone has one vote for the second role? Or?

That's right. After a lock in, a player has their votes reset if they still have two votes out.

Would a roleblocked target know they were roleblocked?

A tracker would know due to lack of result, others roles wouldn't be told.

Mod: would an assassin be told whether or not they lost an attempt after a failed attempt?

An assassin would be told how many shots it has left to try.

[ooba]

Vote: Daycop
Vote: Roleblocker

Still stand that this is the best option.

Troll's argument was good

- Troll: Do not choose RB & let hiders claim
-- Because if scum gave us 2 hiders, then we have two confirmed PRs which cannot be NK'd by mutual protect
-- Because if scum gave us 1 hider, we have a confirmed town person right off the bat
(Of course, this is with the added note that fakeclaiming scum will get caught by other PRs flipping\claiming later)

However, we should consider the roles we might have got. I do not think scum would have giv us two hiders. In fact chances of a single hider are low too since both Weak doc and hider have a powerful informational component to them - aka "Basically a cop who gets killed if he targets the guilty" role + chances to stop a NK. I would have personally gone with 2 Vigs, 2 JKs. The vigs reduce the informational component of the JKs since no-kill would make any JK suspect that his target was either making the kill or being targetted for one. And JK better than tracker because if there is a vig in the setup, a tracker might actually verify that X visited scummy person Y.

So therefore, Troll's benefits aren't realized except if scum went exotic. Plus if you remove RB as a choice, you are left with choosing one of Janitor\Assassin which is much worse.

I disagree with Hoopla's premise: "It is almost certain that the roleblocker must be picked as one of the two roles for scum, as any combination of Role-Cop/Janitor/Assassin is more damaging than a couple of roleblocker combinations."

Why not Janitor?
- First, it denies us the flip info
- Mith has pointed out that we cannot keep exact track of PR flips and current PR count

Why not Assassin?
- My argument is simple - would you rather the PR become powerless or get killed
- If someone claims PR and scum had assassin, not only would they be able to kill the PR, you effectively freed up their NK to kill someone else

[Zorblag]

@mith, if the scum picked no hiders and try to fake claim one now then we almost certainly have tools to deal with that. Either a vig or a tracker be a fine way to test a hider claim. If there are no hiders then we either have one of those two or the scum gave us two weak doctors and two jailkeeprs. Troll deems that fairly unlikely for a number of reasons. Actually, Troll would be pretty pleased if scum tried to fake claim a hider Day zero all things considered. That almost certainly be a scum that would be caught before too long.

@ooba, actually, the order you have there no be quite right. Troll wants a hider claim first. If there be two claimed hiders then we go with no roleblocker. If there be no claimed hiders at all (many seem to think that mafia wouldn't have chosen any hiders so this could happen) then the role blocker be fine. Troll has been thinking about the one claimed hider situation. In the end, if mafia want to use a roleblock to try to kill a hider (and there be a fair chance that town would have the ability to protect a hider with either a weak doc or jailkeeper if them were to try) then Troll be willing to let them make that attempt. At this point Troll thinks that we should only forgo the roleblocker if we get that double hider claim.

@everyone, Troll will ask that you really think about this before dismissing it. Troll wants a hider claim at this point. Here be the reasons:

• If we have two hiders the benefit be absolutely excellent for town. It no be an automatic win but having two confirmed, unkillable townies be a huge advantage. Should one of the scum be fake claiming hider it will come out after the first night and we'll have found a scum already in exchange for a hider. That be a fine deal. Should both hiders be fake claiming we can catch them at it with either vig or tracker actions (and if we have no hiders we almost certainly have one of them.) In that case we catch two scum right from the start.
  
• If we have no hiders at all then town gains valuable information that the scum already had.
  
• If we have one hider claim then either the scum have serious decisions to make about how to deal with them even after them are out (them need to use a roleblock to have a chance at killing them on their own or them can let the hider possibly get killed via their normal actions) or it's scum faking it and we should probably catch them before too long with town power roles.

There be very high potential rewards (possibly up to partially game breaking) from a hider claim and there be very little that the town be risking.

Troll knows that claims at the start of the game be frowned upon but them should be made when the situation calls for it. This be exactly that sort of situation.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[mith]

Good point, we probably do have a way to test a single Hider claim.

I feel better about the idea now than I did earlier, but I'm still not convinced. I'll keep thinking about it. (I wish I had a bit more time to just sit and think about this game; it's a very interesting set of options Patrick has given us.)

[VasudeVa]

I really really REALLY dislike Janitor. Scum have a strong advantage with an unknown lynch no matter what the alignment of the lynchee because they can easily spread bad information AND get away with it. Then there is the threat of a ninja LyLo(if they are ever unannouced....

@Mod: Are they?

). Lastly, it will make us doubt all claims in this game forever and force us to speculate. I have won and lost games where speculation ultimately drowned the Town out.

The Assassin is very weak at it's core. It only seems powerful because it can kill but~
1. There is a way to circumvent the Assassin primarily because we KNOW that there is an assassin. Just don't claim and let the reveals tell us the truth.
2. The Assassin can not be used to sneak a win on us.
3. With 12 VTs and 4PRs, the chances of them killing anyone isn't good.
4. The PRs aren't that impressive anyway and it looks like Town will be doing more traditional scumhunting than 'Follow the PR'.
5. Coupled with the RB, the scumteam seems VERY weak now.

[VasudeVa]

Actually, reading back Hoopla made all the points I wanted to make. Curse my aversion to giant walls¹!

¹of text. Although I would averse my self from the Great Wall too²

²If I were planning to conquer Ancient China³

³As a Mongolian Khan!⁴

⁴Then again, I'm not Mongolian⁵

⁵In fact, I don't know anyone who's a Mongolian.⁶

⁶Except the Khans⁷

⁷But I don't know them personally.

Wow, I'm bored.

[Plum]

I think you guys are seriously overestimating the power of the assassin role. For one, it can't be used to end the game/give the mafia a majority. And since its only a 2-shot, the only real threat of an assassin kill is after a PR claim, or a less than a coinflip (probably) chance of the assassin guessing when it gets close to endgame, if it even lives that long. Putting an assassin in is not riding off the PR's as unvaluable. We can still get PR information, except we have to expect that once a PR claims, it will be killed. Note that after a PR claims, they're usually killed or RBed anyways, in most games.

Note that after a PR claims, usually only the PR is killed that Night, not a PR and someone else as well. Just because the Assassin can't be used to auto-win the game for scum doesn't mean it can't reduce the number of mislynches we have available. And unlike Vig kills (which have been cited in this argument as similar and are considered good because they reduce the pool of lynch candidates), the extra kills will be on the scum's terms, not (basically) on ours. Vig kills have been known to do more than reduce the pool of lynch candidates. They've been known to - strange as this sounds - kill off scumbags on occasion. In any case, the extra kill the scumteam gains from an Assassin with a good target (for whatever reason - as mith showed, there will be times when a no-PR claim is stupid but with an Assassin chosen anyway, viable alternative methods don't present themselves) is going straight onto the most useful Townie they can think of. Probably someone

not

in the lynch pool at all.

Rolecop is in my mind not as bad (though actually it does get worse if it lasts long enough) - it may direct scum at PRs, but it won't ever give them an extra kill or ever reduce the number of mislynches we have. People who've suddenly gone all anti-Janitor (a role I don't think is quite as inherently bad as many people seem to, but still probably worth avoiding. Depending on a lot of factors, some of which will be out of the control of just about everyone in the game, it could be mostly harmless or - slim chance - really bad. So I wouldn't mind avoiding it) think about this: a Janitor may rain on the parade of one lynch, but an Assassin can take away our extra mislynches. Lynches are still what we'll need to win the game. I'm really not interested in handing a few over to the scum for free.

[Plumegranate]

Crud. I need to be more mindful (oh and yes, Pom will be away for the following month, so it's just Plum you'll be seeing for a while:

I think you guys are seriously overestimating the power of the assassin role. For one, it can't be used to end the game/give the mafia a majority. And since its only a 2-shot, the only real threat of an assassin kill is after a PR claim, or a less than a coinflip (probably) chance of the assassin guessing when it gets close to endgame, if it even lives that long. Putting an assassin in is not riding off the PR's as unvaluable. We can still get PR information, except we have to expect that once a PR claims, it will be killed. Note that after a PR claims, they're usually killed or RBed anyways, in most games.

Note that after a PR claims, usually only the PR is killed that Night, not a PR and someone else as well. Just because the Assassin can't be used to auto-win the game for scum doesn't mean it can't reduce the number of mislynches we have available. And unlike Vig kills (which have been cited in this argument as similar and are considered good because they reduce the pool of lynch candidates), the extra kills will be on the scum's terms, not (basically) on ours. Vig kills have been known to do more than reduce the pool of lynch candidates. They've been known to - strange as this sounds - kill off scumbags on occasion. In any case, the extra kill the scumteam gains from an Assassin with a good target (for whatever reason - as mith showed, there will be times when a no-PR claim is stupid but with an Assassin chosen anyway, viable alternative methods don't present themselves) is going straight onto the most useful Townie they can think of. Probably someone

not

in the lynch pool at all.

Rolecop is in my mind not as bad (though actually it does get worse if it lasts long enough) - it may direct scum at PRs, but it won't ever give them an extra kill or ever reduce the number of mislynches we have. People who've suddenly gone all anti-Janitor (a role I don't think is quite as inherently bad as many people seem to, but still probably worth avoiding. Depending on a lot of factors, some of which will be out of the control of just about everyone in the game, it could be mostly harmless or - slim chance - really bad. So I wouldn't mind avoiding it) think about this: a Janitor may rain on the parade of one lynch, but an Assassin can take away our extra mislynches. Lynches are still what we'll need to win the game. I'm really not interested in handing a few over to the scum for free.

EBWOP: Zorb's Hider-claim idea sounds good. The downsides are limited and the info gained seems both fairly safe and worth it.

[Hoopla]

Note that after a PR claims, usually only the PR is killed that Night

We lynch it. When 50% of PR claims from L-1 positions are scum, I like them odds. PR claims, we get it's info, we get rid of the body. Besides, giving scum the roleblocker means they have no incentive to kill off claimed PR's (if we don't go the assassin route).

In any case, the extra kill the scumteam gains from an Assassin with a good target (for whatever reason - as mith showed, there will be times when a no-PR claim is stupid but with an Assassin chosen anyway, viable alternative methods don't present themselves) is going straight onto the most useful Townie they can think of. Probably someone

not

in the lynch pool at all.

We're not doing 'No PR claims' - we're doing PR claims, but killing it after. How often are we ever going to actually have a confirmed town PR in this game?

In any case, the extra kill the scumteam gains from an Assassin with a good target...

...but an Assassin can take away our extra mislynches

Seriously, the odds are very low of scum getting an extra kill, let alone two from this role. As long as we leave no claimed PR's exposed at night, everything is just a-okay.

[Patrick]

Then there is the threat of a ninja LyLo(if they are ever unannouced....@Mod: Are they?).

I'm not sure what you mean. I won't be announcing when the town is in lylo, if that's what you're asking.

[ekiM]

The hider-claim seems bad to me.

The "game breaking benefits" only come if we have two hiders and I would bet money that we do not. Scum would have to be fools not to notice the synergy, and I doubt we have four fools as scum with this player list.

If we discount the two hider case then... I don't see the advantage of claiming over not claiming. At all. If we knew there could only be one hider would we advocate a claim right away?

I'm also dubious about the idea that we might want to be using JK/Doc to protect a hider orrrrrrr using a vig to test it.

---

I'm feeling less bad about janitor. We're going to see something like ten deaths before we're at LYLO, at a bare minimum. How much effect is not knowing the flip of one of those going to have?

[Zorblag]

@ekiM, the potential benefits of two hiders to the town and danger to the mafia be largely negated by town picking a role blocker for the scum. Troll thinks that essentially everyone who has chimed in has said that roleblocker be the first choice them would make (Troll would have to go back and check that but it be at least close to what has happened.) Troll thinks that if scum considered hider a weak role (and we be talking about a role that can get itself killed by hiding with mafia, hiding with obv town that mafia kills or hiding with whoever any potential vigilante's choose to kill; despite the potential to clear townies it be a dicey role on it's own) them would have been tempted to double it up if them could count on the synergy being countered (which them almost certainly could.)

The chances of having two hiders in the game be slim but them exist. If them be there then we be fools not to use them.

You yourself seemed to think that a single hider in the game was a sort of alternate option by how you listed the priorities. There be a very real chance that scum avoided the altogether. If that be the case then it be good for the town to go with a hider claim now.

As for being able to use either vigilante kills or trackers to see what a claimed hider be up to as well as being able to protect them, their play be what would determine what makes sense there. The point be that we probably have options for how to approach a single claim no matter what we think of the at the end of the first couple days. We likely have multiple tools; we no need to decide right now which ones we must use.

If there no were a chance to have multiple hiders Troll probably wouldn't have suggested a hider claim. It still shouldn't be a terrible move but the possibility of two hiders makes it the right one at this point in Troll's assessment of the situation.

How much harm do you think it be likely to do? If we have the chance to make significant enhancements to the town's chances of winning then we should take them if the potential downside no be too severe. Troll firmly believes that to be the case here.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[DrippingGoofball]

The arguments in favor of an assassin must be over my head or something.

I remind everyone that I'm VLA Aug 1-7. I'll be leaving early Sunday morning, so that after Saturday night you won't hear from me for a week. I expect no access whatsoever.

[Herodotus]

I thought I would be able to post earlier but some responsibilities came up. I expect to catch up within 26 hours.

Three brief points, though:
1. I asked the mod via PM before the game started, and he said that hiders can be roleblocked. Just wanted to mention that in case people assumed otherwise.
2. We're giving scum an ability pair, not one ability and another. They should in theory be two things that don't work well as a pair, though I don't have any specific idea at this time.
3. I don't like the janitor power. But if it were paired with assassin, I don't think they would be able to accomplish anything more than the two roles individually would.

[Kmd4390]

Elmo, it should be obvious why a daytime rolecop is dangerous. Scum find a power role during the day and know who to NK.

[mith]

Hoopla, the wording you are using on occasion when discussing your plan is really bugging me - I know what you're trying to say, but its making me feel like you are more concerned with lynching power roles than with preventing successful fake claims or extra scum kills.

I can think of several reasons why we might have a confirmed power role, or at least a power role claim we would prefer to not lynch immediately. Vigilante kills scum and isn't countered; someone is run up close to lynch and a Hider/Weak Doc comes out to save them; Tracker catches someone visiting the scene of a murder; there's probably something involving the Jailkeeper's blocking ability, as well.

Herodotus, I'm pretty curious about point 1. Why were you asking the mod whether Hiders can be Roleblocked?

[zoraster]

Okay. I am now Sober and ready.

A Hider Claim is a definite good. Remember that the only way that having two hiders is good is if we know about them. Scum probably didn't do it unless they, like me, neglected to think about the ramifications (but they'd be stupid not to spend more time than I did thinking about things). If we only have one, so what? The hider is a pretty darn weak role.

Vote: Option 2

3 week deadlines = snoozefest.

[mith]

Ok, there are 19 other players in this game. And only one of them has posted since my last post nearly 24 hours ago. Unacceptable.

I'm a little uneasy about zoraster's reasoning... scum would be stupid not to have thought about the Hider enough to not give us two, but we should do it anyway because the only way two Hiders is good is if we know?

(The variation in power-role evaluation for different players is pretty interesting. Though unfortunately unlikely to be useful for scumhunting at this stage in the game.)

[Amished]

I definitely give scum credit looking at the player list. Doubt 2 hiders and don't like seeing a claim like Troll suggested (naive at best). In that case I don't see why we shouldn't give them a *4-shot* (and not unlimited) roleblocker and an assassin. My stance on a janitor is still the same (does not allow accurate wagon analysis; nor associative tells; especially with the player list being what it is) and a rolecop is the worst possible role to give the scum.

Vote: Roleblocker
Vote: Assassin

Vote: Option 2 deadline

This, in my eyes, is the best. While it gives the scum the most options for WIFOM if a town power role comes up (roleblock for the lynch the next day; or an assassin); it also makes protecting a certain buddy extremely prioritized (which helps immensely) in the case of an assassin being part of their team. I trust our PR's enough to remain hidden from the scum anyways which would make any missed shot (which is extremely likely) very damaging for them.

Basically it encourages them to take unnecessary risks which I feel we can capitalize on in the long run.

[Herodotus]

I had an idea:
1. Massclaim day 0 OR mass-PR-claim day 0
2. Then select the rolecop and roleblocker
3. Results:
The scum rolecop is useless/semiuseless.
Either 4 confirmed town PR's, or 5 or 6 claimed PR's.
With 5 claimed PR's, we start lynching from among the non-PR's. The scum have to either let most of the PR's live, with only one of them roleblocked, or narrow down the claimed PR group until we have good idea which of the survivors is scum.
With 6 claimed PR's, I'm not sure what the best strategy is, but it's probably to lynch from among the claimed PR's.
The reason to claim on day 0 is that the scum won't know which of them is the RB, so they can't decide which of them will fakeclaim in advance.

But the above doesn't seem any better than waiting until at least the first time a PR would normally claim, then massclaiming at that time (which in turn doesn't seem ideal.) Does anyone see a way to salvage this obviously flawed plan?
Probably not.

---

This is also a message to any potential vig; stay quiet early, unless you're very sure.

What does that mean, in English?

Exactly what it says, DGB. I don't see how that remark is cryptic.

It's just slightly ambiguous whether you're asking them to lurk, or to not shoot. I think you meant to not shoot, though.

Hmm. I just read the janitor PM. Didn't realize it was for a lynch. I was assuming NK. That's a little stronger than I assumed. I still think I prefer that to a rolecop or assassin though.

Could you explain how you thought the janitor power would work?

Hoopla's RB/assassin plan isn't bad. But PR's would need to be very careful. No conspicuous breadcrumbs, etc.
I'm not sure it's necessary to autolynch all claimed PR's. The assassin only has 2 shots. In the worst case, we can at least make them use up both shots. Though there are caveats related to information, and fakeclaims. (Though mith's example of a vig who shot scum is one example of someone not to lynch. Let the real vig who really shot the scum kill the fakeclaimer.)

Last, and sorry to keep posting but I can't help myself but start to get involved: Consider that our roles are likely to be 2 hiders who it really won't hurt to lose. Roleblocking that won't hurt, and assassinating that won't hurt.

A RB'ed Hider can get a false result (though we are aware of this possibility in advance.)

I would assume that scum would've thought of two-hiders/docs = mini-mason buddies; and put only one in there and possibly then has that open to a fake-claim. With the talent in the game; that's very easy for me to see that they would do that and the roleblocker would then be a good choice for us since if there is a "safe-claim" for them; every other role would have to claim to prove that one of them is lying.

I can't parse your second sentence. One hider + one fakeclaiming hider I understand; what does the rest mean?

@Hoopla: Well, I thought it was RVS time. Apparently not.

Scum daytalk makes this game around 3x scarier with the player list. Is it permanent or just for day 0?

How random was your RV?
The scum role PM says they can always daytalk.

Herodotus, I'm pretty curious about point 1. Why were you asking the mod whether Hiders can be Roleblocked?

Because I started thinking about what we should give the scum before day 0 started.
It has no correlation with whether I am a hider, since it was during pregame.
I also asked whether we can double up the scum PR's (eg. two roleblockers,) and was informed that we cannot.

Roleblocker is at L-2

. Consider carefully before rushing to hammer it, please.

[My Milked Eek]

Vote: Deadline Option #2

I'll go over the role options and walls in this game right now.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, the wording you are using on occasion when discussing your plan is really bugging me - I know what you're trying to say, but its making me feel like you are more concerned with lynching power roles than with preventing successful fake claims or extra scum kills.

I hope my wording hasn't been too aggressive, because upon a reread I feel like I've been a bit bullying and condescending. Sorry everyone.

Mith, the threat of lynching claimed power roles is exactly what prevents scum from benefitting from fakeclaims. You cited examples of vigilantes/trackers with scum kills/accurate investigations coming out and claiming, but this is the only facet we sacrifice. Besides, these roles can still stay quiet and sit on their information until the assassin is gone, it's likely out of shots or it's too deep in the game to be able to use shots.

By imposing a threat of lynching town PR's, it means they must stay quiet and do their job that way. But also eliminates scum fakeclaims which is a necessary precaution when you consider the ratio of scum to town PR's.

[mith]

Hoopla, I cited reasons

four

of our five possible power roles might out themselves and yet us have very strong reasons not to kill them immediately. To mention two of them and then call them the "only facet we sacrifice" makes me feel like being bullying and condescending.

Further, with all but the Tracker, I'm not suggesting these power roles are just coming out unprompted because of information - I'm suggesting that there's a reasonable chance we will run someone up close to lynch that will cause legit power role with information to come out, in such a way that lynching them would be very poor play (yet having an Assassin in the game forces us into a tricky situation).

But with the Tracker... are you seriously suggesting that a Tracker with a damning investigation should just sit on it (risking, oh, I dunno, getting killed before revealing that information?), or that to do so would qualify as a worthwhile sacrifice for the cause of not giving the Assassin a kill? That's ridiculous.

Herodotus: I don't want to say too much about the numbers I have on this, in case the Mafia don't know what the optimal play is, but I don't think massclaim is likely to benefit us as much as having the power roles functioning normally would.