populartajo wrote:
I really need to think more about the assasin-roleblocker-no PR claim stuff. Hoopla, can you be clearer about this?
Okay, I'll try and sum up the Roleblocker/Assassin argument as eloquently as I can, though Rhinox seems to be doing a better job than me (who just ends up looking like a raving lunatic).
It is almost certain that the roleblocker must be picked as one of the two roles for scum, as any combination of Role-Cop/Janitor/Assassin is more damaging than a couple of roleblocker combinations. But if we are giving the scum a roleblocker, we must lynch any claimed PR's unless they get confirmed innocent somehow. By unvoting a PR claim at L-1, if it is town, the scum will roleblock it, leaving it alive for wifom purposes and we have to gamble on it's validity when it keeps on living. If it is scum, we have just given it an extra day or two. Realistically, as Rhinox points out, we should be lynching PR's once they have claimed, because they do not have a chance to get more information with a scum roleblocker existing - they'll either bite the NK or roleblock. By not lynching a claimed PR, we only stand to lose because if it is scum, we have just given it the benefit of another day of survival, without gaining anything if it is town.
If town agrees this is the correct play, then it makes the assassin a much more feasible option, because we will never have exposed PR claims going into night, and scum has no Role-Cop to find any themselves. Going into N1, N2 and N3 they will almost certainly have less than a 50% chance of hitting a PR with the assassin, and closer to 25% in the earlier days, and likely less if they NK or we lynch a PR early. The assassin waiting that long to kill is a real risk for scum, because it's individual chances of dying before N4, are probably lower than the chances it gets from shooting early and hoping to get lucky.
You have to remember, even if the Assassin does get a hit on N1/N2, it lowers it's odds for it's next shot because of it having a smaller pool to target. The Hider is also untargetable by this extra kill, which might make the odds I listed earlier even lower for the Assassin if it can only hit 2 or 3 roles. So, it is highly unlikely the Assassin will make two kills with it's two shots, and I think the chances of it making one are still lower than most people expect, because of the potential Hiders limiting the pool, and the Assassin needing not to be lynched/NK'ed any time early. This set-up has a high ratio of Vanilla to PR's, so gaining a second night kill will be challenging for scum if we leave no exposed PR's going into night (something we should always be following anyway).
The main concern seems to be about cutting off information PR's are generating, and that isn't completely true. Initially I was espousing a concept of no claims whatsoever, but Rhinox makes a better proposal, that a player must only claim once they have been decided as the lynch, and purely for the reason they don't take any information they could have to the grave. This gives us more information that no-claims-whatsoever, infact, just as much as we would get if we unvoted that PR claim, and tried to leave it alive. That PR won't get any more information, so in practice, we lose very little information over all.
And because we lose little overall, the benefits are weighted in not giving up the Role-Cop or Janitor, which are far more damaging than this plan I have shown you.
