A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[Axelrod]

@Locke: you didn't say, but was there any "flavor" associated with your no result last Night? Like, anything that would suggest how you were blocked or who might have done it?

[diddin]

Also to Locke: Who did you even investigate? I'm just curious.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I have a big post regarding why I think SSBF is a bad lynch today saved on my home computer. I’ll post it if I get the chance. In the meantime a couple of points …

Also to Locke: Who did you even investigate? I'm just curious.

What is your Pro-Town motive for asking this? Locke has already said he was blocked. All you are doing here is potentially letting the remaining scum know if they should be worried about his scan target tonight.

If you "saw" xvart (Cersei - Roleblocker) target Locke last Night, which would obviously explain why you said you didn't exect Locke to have any results, I think you should confirm/deny at this point. That's all you should say.

Agreed.

So yeah, strong supporter, that was me. Percy said a number of things that raised my proverbial hackles this game (which I think I said already) but I certainly wasn't sure about him being scum, and didn't feel like I had enough to call him out on either.

Saying someone ‘raises your hackles’ while not actively doing anything (ie posting about it) is a distancing move. You never actively attack Percy but after the fact you can point and say ‘See, I suspected him’.

I'm coming to the opinion that reviewing a player's posts in "iso" is actually not that great. At first I thought it was neat, but now I think you lose so much of the context. Yes, you can click the post and go and see it in the actual thread as well, but I know I don't always do that.

So you find ISOing isn’t really effective because you lose context. And you expressly demonstrate you know the technique that nullifies that lack of context. But you don’t always use the technique for whatever reason. So the problem is has more to do with your motivation rather than ISOing.

At that point, Unsight had 7 votes and Rifka was now at 4. This vote doesn't bother me too much.

As I said before, I don't really think that scum would have all that much incentive to go pushing a mis-lynch on Rifka close to deadline when someone else not on their team was already on the hook.

So, maybe, if Macaviter were scumbuddies with Unsight, but even then, I don't really see him making this vote this way. He's just throwing it out there to see what happens, which is actually more of a Townish mindset than not.

Bolded for emphasis. You’ve stated you are coming around to 4 person scum-teams. Why don’t you consider that Unsight and Mac might both be Greyjoys? Additionally if you give Unsight’s 3 Mafia team theory any weight why don’t you consider them both as potential partners with SSBF?

[Axelrod]

So, without looking deeper, I would say this post of Magna's raises a Red Flag. Call me narcisistic, but here I have made at least two fairly substantial posts, which he has almost completely ignored in order to make a bunch of largely irrelevant points and which appears to be desiged to do nothing more than cast dirt on me.

So yeah, strong supporter, that was me. Percy said a number of things that raised my proverbial hackles this game (which I think I said already) but I certainly wasn't sure about him being scum, and didn't feel like I had enough to call him out on either.

Saying someone ‘raises your hackles’ while not actively doing anything (ie posting about it) is a distancing move. You never actively attack Percy but after the fact you can point and say ‘See, I suspected him’.

I didn't say Percy "raised my hackels" while he was alive. You may have noticed but this is something I'm now getting grief from from other people. I made one comment - in response to someone else saying there was absolutely no evidence that Percy was scum - and said "well, that's not exactly true" but didn't elaborate. My bad, but I wasn't trying to make a case against Percy at the time, I just thought the poster's comment was wrong, and I was advocating for him to get Copped.

I'm coming to the opinion that reviewing a player's posts in "iso" is actually not that great. At first I thought it was neat, but now I think you lose so much of the context. Yes, you can click the post and go and see it in the actual thread as well, but I know I don't always do that.

So you find ISOing isn’t really effective because you lose context. And you expressly demonstrate you know the technique that nullifies that lack of context. But you don’t always use the technique for whatever reason. So the problem is has more to do with your motivation rather than ISOing.

aaaaaaaand?

I'm scum?

I'm lazy?

What are you getting at here?

That remark of mine was a throwaway. Stream of consciousness remark in a series of posts I was making. You know it. I was expressing an opinion, but it really didn't have a lot to do with anything going on in the game. Not entirely unlike my earlier off game rant at Drippereth. But this, of all things, is what you focus on?

How about that 50% chance you are scum?

At that point, Unsight had 7 votes and Rifka was now at 4. This vote doesn't bother me too much.

As I said before, I don't really think that scum would have all that much incentive to go pushing a mis-lynch on Rifka close to deadline when someone else not on their team was already on the hook.

So, maybe, if Macaviter were scumbuddies with Unsight, but even then, I don't really see him making this vote this way. He's just throwing it out there to see what happens, which is actually more of a Townish mindset than not.

Bolded for emphasis. You’ve stated you are coming around to 4 person scum-teams. Why don’t you consider that Unsight and Mac might both be Greyjoys? Additionally if you give Unsight’s 3 Mafia team theory any weight why don’t you consider them both as potential partners with SSBF?

What are you even talking about. I said - in the very post you have quoted - that maybe Unsight and Mac could be on the same team. But the way Mac cast his vote leads me away from drawing that conclusion. It didn't look like someone trying to "protect" his buddy. It didn't look like somone aggrresively trying to drive an alternate wagon. It was like "hey, lets do this and see what happens!"

Could he vote like that and still be scumbuddies with Unsight? Sure. It's not impossible. But that's my read. What was yours again? Oh, that's right, you didn't say. You just nit-picked at me.

If we are 3-3-3 (and no SK) we'll know it when SSBF gets lynched. That's win-win, baby. Except you apparently don't want him lynched.

[Locke Lamora]

If Diddin wasn't Sandor, I'd vote him for that question. As it is, I don't see the motivation for Diddin-scum to ask me that because he obviously can't have any buddies left even if he is scum himself. It's a horrible question, though. In case that wasn't clear enough: no, I'm not telling you who I investigated.

As for Axelrod's question, there was absolutely no flavour whatsoever to the block.

Axel: your response indicated that there was

some

evidence that Percy was scum. Anything at all in particular?

Hey Unsight, we're lynching two people today and all you've done is turn up and say we should lynch SSBF. Got any other suspects?

[diddin]

I asked because it's something I do every time. I have caught scum fakeclaiming when they forget to say who they investigated the night they claimed to be roleblocked, so I have done it ever since.

Big post, coming tonight to a computer near you.

[Eddard Stark]

Vote Count 4.2 - The '"

Gendry looked almost a man grown, and dangerous. Hot Pie looked like Hot Pie.

." Votecount

SSBF (2) - Macavitar, Unsight.

CSL (1) - Mikujin
Unsight (1) - MagnaOfIllusion
Axelrod (1) - Locke Lamora

Not Voting (8) Mina, Thor665, Axelrod, Super Smash Bros. Fan, diddin, CSL, RichardGHP, hasdgfas.

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch. If a majority is reached the person with the second most votes will also be simultaneously lynched.

Deadline is Midnight EST on the 5th of September, with a countdown available here

[Unsight]

Hey Unsight, we're lynching two people today and all you've done is turn up and say we should lynch SSBF. Got any other suspects?

Two lynches?

Anyway, I made a big post with everyone's name on it and my reads. The red names are my suspects.

Off-hand I'll go with MagnaofIllusion. He's been misrepping me this whole game from the part where he was insinuating I was distancing Drippereth to the part where he said I was fence sitting with dana to now where he's spouting nonsense about me proposing a 3 scum-team game. My suspicion of MacCavitar is based on connection with SSBF. If SSBF flips SK and not mafia, then Magna who's been (pardon the French) full of shit since Day 1 is my second choice.

Now I'm going to read the last few pages and hope my internet connection lasts long enough to finish/post.

[Unsight]

Ah I see the second lynch part. Guess I should start paying more attention to the flavor stuff.

[Unsight]

2) Mina
4)

Macavitar

6)

Unsight

7)

Thor665

9)

Axelrod

10)

Super Smash Bros. Fan

14)

Locke Lamora

15)

Mikujin

18) diddin
19)

CSL

23)

RichardGHP

24)

hasdgfas

25)

MagnaOfIllusion

Macavitar goes to black if SSBF flips SK.

[Thor665]

@Unsight - you have absolutely no town reads that aren't predicated on a power claim or alignment scan?

[diddin]

YO YO HOMIES IT'S A LONG POST COURTESY OF YOUR BWOI DIDDIN

This post will mainly concern Axelrod. I plan on hopefully making another big post this weekend.

Pssst Axelrod

You forgot to vote Deer

He's scum

In case it's not obvious

Well, it's not

totally

obvious.

Yet.

Early game avoidance of the Deer slot? Kinda funny looking now that the Deer slot's confirmed scum.

Welcome Hasdgfas!

Unvote;

Vote: Hasdgfas

Sorry, but Dr. Modem was scummy and then quit, so you are starting out in the hole.

My problem with the Drippereth account is that they can post contradictory things like:

Assuming a doctor is in the settup, I will be amaza-suprised if the double-voter isn't protected. So raising up whoever you think is the most pro-town is still the way imo.

and

I can't see why a double vote would be so precious...

and you can't really call them out for a contradiction, because it could just be that the two heads have a different opinion on the issue.

I'm trying to look at Richard. I don't especially care for his style, but I'm not convinced it's scummy yet.

I actually like this comeback here:

I'm going to lol when Drippereth is wrong - AGAIN

Townies don't taunt in this way. Scumz do.

WELL I GUESS THERE'S A FIRST TIME FOR EVERYTHING BECAUSE I, A TOWNIE, JUST TAUNTED IN THAT WAY.

Which strikes the right tone of annoyance and indignation for a Town.

Kind of a weak vote, considering Axelrod at this time not voiced any suspicion at all on Dr Modem or even mentioned him.

boy that makes me feel welcome. I'm going to point out that newbies often replace out when they're under pressure because they don't know what else to do. I mean, he's Townsperson. Plus, he said he was too busy to play, so I'm calling party foul on this vote, because he didn't disappear, he replaced out.

Well, I didn't say he "disappeared" did I? I said he quit. Which is true. Not much of a reason to vote, but I wasn't especially feeling it

more

on anyone else so, there you go.

@Axelrod: I don't see any scumhunting from you. What are your thoughts on scumminess of certain players? For instance, Dr Modem. You say he's scummy, but don't give reasons. You didn't comment on them in any of your previous posts. What are they? Why did it take you so long to change your vote?

Dr. Modem did nothing this game. He "random" voted for me (never a good thing) and made no other votes. He made a few attempts at what appeared to be jokes without commenting about anything or anyone else. He got overly hostile and defensive when critized, and then he quit. So, really, what's not to like there?

In the words of John Paul Jones: I have not yet begun to scum-hunt!

Seriously, it's early.

Unvotes hasbjskfbsfas after giving pretty sollid reasoning for a Doc lynch. Since we know has is town now, this could be scum looking to build an easy townie wagon and backing off when the replacement actually started looking town.

Okay, I will get caught up soon, but to those voting to raise axelrod, I would just like to say that whoever gets the double vote will likely die quickly and axelrod already endorsed me getting the double vote. I'm willing to take that sacrifice for town. I'll admit axel seems to be a very good player and I'll likely take his advice into consideration when using a double vote. Just putting it out there.
By the way, glad to see the Richard wagon is taking off. Pillars of the evil king's castle are finally falling 2day.

Uh, yuck?

Unraise: CryMeARiver

Like, I don't usually mind when people suck up to me, but this is kind of over the top. Also, it's

hardly

like I'd firmly decided you were my guy here.

To Richard: do you know if this bonus kill is immediate, or takes place during the subsequent night? For instance, were you lynched, would Loras kill someone before the Night technically started, or would it happen as a regular action during the Night. And I assume he can't hold it for later, but has to use it right then? Could he elect NOT to use it?

Mod

: I'm pretty sure I'm not voting for anyone.

~Thanks - fix'd I hope

This post grants a few townie points. From a scum POV, he would know who is town and probably see it as one less likely power role, where from a townie POV he very well could be scum trying to get the Raise through Appealing to Emotion.

ISO 7- An attack on Hayker, and a decent one at that. I don't like how he didn't comment on the tail end of the Richard wagon though.

There's just way too much "certainty" floating around in this thread. I absolutely hate it when people just start calling other people "scum" and act like they have it all figured out and it's case-closed when the truth is they know

nothing

. They have a

hunch

. An

opinion

.

I recognize this is a "style" thing for a lot of people, and they'll flip from calling someone obv.scum to deciding they are clearly town at the drop of a hat, and then immediately press on with their next "obviously scum" target, conveniently ignoring how horribly wrong they were the last time they called someone "obv.scum" and it drives me

nuts

. Please STFU or use some damn qualifiers. When you do this you are either being dishonest or you are just being a moron.

/rant

I don't know why I bothered to type this out. Maybe I'm having a bad day or something.

Ok, this is not really part of a case but a personal rant, but I HATE it when people bitch about this. THIS IS A GAME OF MAFIA. YOU ARE GOING TO BE CALLED SCUM. DEAL WITH IT. Lots of players when attacking someone will just call them scum or obv. scum, it's a personality thing.

ISO 13- Good attack on Raivann, but leaves his vote on hayker instead. Greyjoy scum points.

The rest of day 1 he avoids voting Raivann like the plague and sticks to CMAR after he starts lurking out of nowhere.

Early D2 he attacks Dana for avoiding the Raivann wagon when he did so as well. Once again, looks like Greyjoy scum trying to push a lynch on someone non-Greyjoy.

All he does the rest of D2 is push Dana and comment on the vezo claim. This clears him of being a Lannister imo, since I doubt Lannister scum would stick to Dana when there was a well-developed alternate wagon at the time, SSBF.

He then starts out D3 by saying he would probably vote SSBF even though HE HAS SAID NOTHING ON SSBF IN THE PAST. Scumpoints. He then responds to Benmage's comment that jvw was likely a Lannister kill by saying that there are reasons that SSBF could be scum from either side.

Mina: I am also very interested in having Percy be the one to Step Forward if you think that's scummy. He's just someone who seems good enough to slip by as scum, so I'm naturally wary of him, and I'd be happy with the insurance. You say he'll likely end up dead anyway, but that hasn't happened yet, so there's no reason to assume it will happen later and before anyone else.

I'm not all gung-ho this is definitely what we should do, and there are other people I'd also be happy to have inspected, but in as much as you are making this a point against Benmage, I have to say I don't agree.

Macaviter: welcome, I guess. Any time you want to elaborate on your read of me I'll be happy to discuss it.

Saying he would be willing to have Percy revealed here seems like something safe for a scumbuddy to suggest even though it most likely wasn't happening at this point so he can say "I was suspicious of him earlier, that makes me not a Greyjoy!"

Pay attention. I'm also holding it (as well as more in that post) against Locke.

Yeah, well, you made your post while I was typing mine, I saw it in preview, but it didn't really change what I had to say, so please don't accuse me of not "paying attention."

There is no evidence implying that Percy is scum.

Well, that's not exactly true either. There's certainly nothing blatant though.

Your strategy is to roll a dice and hope he drew a scum PM, because he's so good that we mere mortals have no help of catching him.

It's not a "die roll." It's a strategic choice. You are free to disagree (and obviously do) but don't call it a die roll.

And now that Locke has said what he's said I think it becomes even more an issue.

If there is nothing blatant but there is evidence, why did you not include this evidence in your post suggesting Percy step forward?


In conclusion: Axelrod makes quite a few points that make him look like Greyjoy scum, particularly his avoidance of Raivann in favor of Hayker and then CMAR. I'm thinking he is Greyjoy scum.

VOTE: Axelrod

@Mina: Anything interesting go on in the Kingsguard QT last Night?

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

Anyway, I made a big post with everyone's name on it and my reads. The red names are my suspects.

#2034: I'm assuming that this is your big post, correct? Especially considering that it has your reads and the red names being your suspects. If so, why does it only include your reads in terms of colored names and "Macavitar is null if SSBF flips SK."?

@SSBF - why shouldn't you be lynched today? A two lynch day seems an optimal one to verify you, and if you're Vig you've killed 2 scum and 1 VI so you've pretty much been an awesome Vig already. Seems pretty smart to kill you now to clear the SK fears - thoughts?

I will say that I have been at least more useful then CSL in this game, who's done next to nothing. That is something I can at least be honest about. I will also say that a Greyjoy/Lannister would probably not want to kill Raivann/I doubt it/vezokpiraka (I doubt it is questionable, but I'm sure that a Greyjoy/Lannister would not want Raivann/vezokpiraka dead because they were useless/heavily suspicious).

I am also trying to cooperate with the town here as I have attempted to answer every single questions directed at me and I agreed to killing the short list of people that was handed out to me Day 3. If I wasn't cooperative, I would definently not kill vezokpiraka/CSL.

Note that I did not simply claim Vanilla Townie at L-10 like CSL did, which is also pretty damn scummy and stupid. I claimed because people asked me to and because I was close to being lynched. Claiming my role before would be a terrible idea.

As for thoughts on me being lynched today, obviously I don't want to be lynched. However, I am willing to face the gallow if it means that CSL dies as well. I can definently see him as a Greyjoy and I feel like that he's the most likely Greyjoy out of this group.

Finally, on deadline day, you say that you are torn between the two targets. Why? You were dead set on lynching CSL and killing him at night if he wasn't lynched. You suddenly completely abandon your certainty for no other reason that I can see than to please the people who wanted Vezo dead.

I haven't admitted this before, but it was partly due to pressure. However, thinking about it, I thought the pressure regarding me to kill vezokpiraka was legitimate. Had I let him live today, he would probably play the similarly as he did Day 1, 2, and 3, which is nothing short of god-awful. Plus people wanted him dead regardless of alignment. By killing him, I did the town some sort of a favor, getting rid of someone that will probably be detrimental to town if he was kept alive for any longer.

[Locke Lamora]

Just doing some thinking; if we had 4-4-1, town could potentially be down to 9 players, ie. 50%, after just 2 mislynches (4-4-1-17 D1, 4-4-1-13 D2, 4-4-1-9 D3). Is that balanced? If Thor had misvigged and JVW had been activated and also miskilled, we could be at 4-4-1-7 D3. If Budja was just a straight-up suicidal townie, that's 4-4-1-6 with a successful Greyjoy kill N1. I agree it's incredibly unlikely but even so, wouldn't it be a crazy set-up if scum/third party outnumbered town 9-6 on D3? I feel like there are too many kills floating around for 4-4-1. I'd say it's either 3-3-1 or 4-4, on the incredibly remote chance SSBF is telling the truth. Perhaps someone with more large theme experience, either in playing or modding/reviewing, can tell me if they've ever seen anything like that.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Some thoughts on the number of remaining players and scum distribution –

Going into today we have 13 alive. After lynches we will have 11 at Nightfall. For purposes of these discussions I will format it in the following manner to accommodate all the possible theories floating around –

Lannister – Greyjoy – Unknown 3rd Mafia – Serial Killer. The scenarios listed with zeros for both last numbers indicate that SSBF is a Town Vig.

Possible scum distributions –

3-3-0-0 – The best case scenario. With three Lannister flips and two Greyjoy flips this would leave 1 scum with 12 Town.

3-3-0-1 – The next most favorable scenario that seems reasonably likely. Again the Lannisters are dead and gone and we can lynch the Serial Killer at our leisure. 2 scum (1 presumed known) with 11 Town.

4-4-0-0 – A more likely scenario from the standpoint of probable Mafia numbers. We would have one remaining Lannister and 2 remaining Greyjoys balanced by 10 Town.

4-4-0-1 – A less likely scenario. More potential problems with a three way split between Scum groups. 4 total scum and 9 total Town.

3-3-3-0 – The least likely scenario. Having a third scum team go undetected for so long with the number of flips we have seen seems like a remote possibility. 4 total scum and 9 Town, but with the downside of having a solid block of 3 Mafia.

Situation –

All the possibilities create the following possible number of scum left:

1 Scum (Greyjoy)
2 Scum (Greyjoy and SK)
3 Scum (Lannister and 2 Greyjoy)
4 Scum (Lannister, 2 Greyjoy and SK)
4 Scum (Greyjoy and 3 Unknown Affiliation)

Based on these numbers the only scenarios where it makes any logical sense to lynch SSBF are the last two scenarios.

If SSBF is actually a Vig it makes no sense to lynch him today. In either the first or third scenario he can continue to help hunt for the last Greyjoy or last Lannister and both Greyjoys, respectively. He's certainly proven he will do so.

If SSBF is a SK and we only have two scum it makes no sense to lynch him today. Town has sufficient numbers (11 to 2) going into the lynch that even with two mis-lynches and two Town kills at night Town still has a 7 to 2 advantage. SSBF can be lynched the next day or might even die as a result of crossfire if the last Greyjoy feels that SSBF might try to kill him.

If SSBF is a SK and we have a 4 and 4 scum team distribution he has to be one of today’s lynches as the 9 to 4 Town to scum ratio likely will mean a Town Kingmaker situation (which would be undesirable to say the least).

If SSBF is a member of Unsight’s mysterious third Mafia he has to be lynched today. Once again the 9 to 4 Town to scum ratio would be even more tenuous with a 3 person team still in effect.

All this said I think we are in either a 3-3-0-1 or 4-4-0-0 scenario. In that situation I don’t support his lynch for the reasons I stated above. I put a 3rd scum team as increadibly improbable and think 3-3-0-0 is likely too heavily weighted towards Town with all the bonus events that are occurring. Likewise I think 4-4-0-1 is too heavily weighted towards Scum. If not for all the cross-kills so far Town would already be in a situation where it was unlikely for Town to win.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I asked because it's something I do every time. I have caught scum fakeclaiming when they forget to say who they investigated the night they claimed to be roleblocked, so I have done it ever since.

But there is little chance Locke is fake-claiming since he know Percy was a Greyjoy. Unless, of course, you think Locke bussed Percy for an almost free endgame pass. And in that scenario he risked being counter-claimed by a real Cop of some sort. So that seems like pretty long odds.

Anyway, I made a big post with everyone's name on it and my reads. The red names are my suspects.

Off-hand I'll go with MagnaofIllusion. He's been misrepping me this whole game from the part where he was insinuating I was distancing Drippereth to the part where he said I was fence sitting with dana to now where he's spouting nonsense about me proposing a 3 scum-team game. My suspicion of MacCavitar is based on connection with SSBF. If SSBF flips SK and not mafia, then Magna who's been (pardon the French) full of shit since Day 1 is my second choice.

Listing all remaining players and saying Scum or Town or Neutral is not scum-hunting.

Let’s see – the primary reason you suggest me is that I’ve been after your scummy self since Day 2.

Regarding the ‘spouting nonsense regarding a 3 scum-team’ game I direct you to the following –

I don't buy that. I think the Day 1 oddity with MacCavityLock suggests that both are mafia.

And yet SSBF was not hacked to death last night and has Nightkilled both Lannisters and Greyjoys. Exactly which Mafia is he with MacLock? It’s inference but it’s clear that –

1. They can’t be Lannisters together as that indictes a 5 man Lannister (and by extension Greyjoy) team which is way too many for the game size.
2. They can’t be Greyjoys as scum partners don’t NK each other but bus during the daytime to achieve Town cred.
3. That leaves some hypothetical third team.

If you don’t believe in a Third team how can SSBF be buddies with MacLock? It makes ZERO sense.

And please explain how SSBF flipping Serial Killer indicates that I’m full of shit and thus Mafia?

[CSL]

Mod: Confirmed date of return is Friday.

And I swore I voted SSBF, turns out I didn't.

Leaving you all today with

VOTE: SSBF

[hasdgfas]

@Mina: Anything interesting go on in the Kingsguard QT last Night?

I'll answer this one: not anything we're going to reveal right now.

Also, I am back from Caffwagon V/LA, but may not be able to post much until Friday.

[Unsight]

@Unsight - you have absolutely no town reads that aren't predicated on a power claim or alignment scan?

The only reads based on those are you, locke, and has. My meta reads are/were RichardGHP (who I defended before he claimed) and Vezo (who I defended despite his idiotic VI self voting me). My only read based on play is Mikujin and that was before he breadcrumbed whatever it is that he's breadcrumbing.

[Unsight]

Anyway, I made a big post with everyone's name on it and my reads. The red names are my suspects.

#2034: I'm assuming that this is your big post, correct? Especially considering that it has your reads and the red names being your suspects. If so, why does it only include your reads in terms of colored names and "Macavitar is null if SSBF flips SK."?

"I made a big post" = past tense. As in, I had done in previously and, by previously, I mean almost two weeks previously.

Also, if you had read the whole post you quoted...

Hey Unsight, we're lynching two people today and all you've done is turn up and say we should lynch SSBF. Got any other suspects?

Two lynches?

Anyway, I made a big post with everyone's name on it and my reads. The red names are my suspects.

Off-hand I'll go with MagnaofIllusion. He's been misrepping me this whole game from the part where he was insinuating I was distancing Drippereth to the part where he said I was fence sitting with dana to now where he's spouting nonsense about me proposing a 3 scum-team game.

My suspicion of MacCavitar is based on connection with SSBF.

If SSBF flips SK and not mafia, then Magna who's been (pardon the French) full of shit since Day 1 is my second choice.

Now I'm going to read the last few pages and hope my internet connection lasts long enough to finish/post.

...you'd have noticed the bold part which answers your second question.

[Macavitar]

If SSBF is a SK and we have a 4 and 4 scum team distribution he has to be one of today’s lynches

as the 9 to 4 Town to scum ratio likely will mean a Town Kingmaker situation (which would be undesirable to say the least).

If SSBF is a member of Unsight’s mysterious third Mafia he has to be lynched today.

Once again the 9 to 4 Town to scum ratio would be even more tenuous with a 3 person team still in effect.

All this said

I think

we are in either a 3-3-0-1 or 4-4-0-0 scenario. In that situation I don’t support his lynch for the reasons I stated above. I put a 3rd scum team as increadibly improbable and think 3-3-0-0 is likely too heavily weighted towards Town with all the bonus events that are occurring. Likewise I think 4-4-0-1 is too heavily weighted towards Scum. If not for all the cross-kills so far Town would already be in a situation where it was unlikely for Town to win.

This disturbs me. The fact that we don't know enough about the setup right now means that we should probably be at least a little cautious than Magna is suggesting. Thus, a "

must

be lynched under scenario X" has to have more weight than "I don't

think

we're in scenario X." That is, unless someone knows something about the setup that the rest of us don't. So, Magna, why do you trust your opinion of the likely setup enough to potentially give up the game if you're wrong?

----

Now, I don't know what else can be or needs to be said about SSBF. He's almost certainly the SK, and if he's not, he's almost certainly lying about being Arya. At the very least, his lynch will illuminate the setup.

Given the odd nature of the double lynch day, I kind of want to go Robert's Rules here. Call to Question SSBF's lynch today. No additional Voting necessary.

SSBF lynch: Yay

.

[Unsight]

Anyway, I made a big post with everyone's name on it and my reads. The red names are my suspects.

Off-hand I'll go with MagnaofIllusion. He's been misrepping me this whole game from the part where he was insinuating I was distancing Drippereth to the part where he said I was fence sitting with dana to now where he's spouting nonsense about me proposing a 3 scum-team game. My suspicion of MacCavitar is based on connection with SSBF. If SSBF flips SK and not mafia, then Magna who's been (pardon the French) full of shit since Day 1 is my second choice.

Listing all remaining players and saying Scum or Town or Neutral is not scum-hunting.

That wasn't meant to be scumhunting. That was meant to be information for the town after I died. I made that post with the expectation I was going to be lynched so I did everything I could to lay my suspicions out.

Let’s see – the primary reason you suggest me is that I’ve been after your scummy self since Day 2.

You're the scum here and it shows in your case which has amounted to a load of piss-poor accusations from distancing drippereth to fence-sitting with dana as well as your tendency to ignore every post where I shot them down. That's not the play of someone hunting scum, it's the play of someone angling for a mislynch while conveniently avoiding other wagons.

Regarding the ‘spouting nonsense regarding a 3 scum-team’ game I direct you to the following –

I don't buy that. I think the Day 1 oddity with MacCavityLock suggests that both are mafia.

And yet SSBF was not hacked to death last night and has Nightkilled both Lannisters and Greyjoys. Exactly which Mafia is he with MacLock? It’s inference but it’s clear that –

1. They can’t be Lannisters together as that indictes a 5 man Lannister (and by extension Greyjoy) team which is way too many for the game size.
2. They can’t be Greyjoys as scum partners don’t NK each other but bus during the daytime to achieve Town cred.
3. That leaves some hypothetical third team.

If you don’t believe in a Third team how can SSBF be buddies with MacLock? It makes ZERO sense.

And please explain how SSBF flipping Serial Killer indicates that I’m full of shit and thus Mafia?

You're already full of shit. SSBF flipping SK just means that Macavitar is off the hook which bumps you up from #3 to #2.

As for SSBF and MacCavitar being buddies, I'm pretty sure if the kill flavor is meaningful that it's pretty much impossible. Hence why I'm very much in favor of lynching you today alongside SSBF.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

If Diddin wasn't Sandor, I'd vote him for that question.

As it is, I don't see the motivation for Diddin-scum to ask me that because he obviously can't have any buddies left even if he is scum himself. It's a horrible question, though. In case that wasn't clear enough: no, I'm not telling you who I investigated.

Wait, weren't you the one to say that there was a possibility that Sandor could be Greyjoy? I think you said that a few days ago.

[Locke Lamora]

No, not a chance in hell (unless the mod has gone a bit bastard with the roles). Sandor is basically Joffrey Baratheon's bodyguard in the books. He abandons the Lannisters towards the end of a Clash of Kings, which is why Diddin's flavour kind of fits, although I'm getting more dubious about that. In any case, the Greyjoys are a completely different family in a completely different location and, to my knowledge, have absolutely no connection with Sandor whatsoever.

[Locke Lamora]

Just want to declare my V/LA, as indicated in my sig. I should be able to keep posting today and a bit tomorrow, but I'm unlikely to have internet access from Saturday.