Mafiascum.net

Total Games	Mafia Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Wins	Town Win %
867	543	62.63	324	37.37

Currently 48 abandoned* or non-standard** games have been recorded.

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	549	64.59	381	168	69.4	30.6
Doctor	50	5.88	34	16	68	32
Cop	50	5.88	43	7	86	14
Goon	154	18.12	55	99	35.71	64.29
Roleblocker	29	3.41	6	23	20.69	79.31
No Lynch	18	2.12	15	3	83.33	16.67

Variant*	Appearances	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %	Occurrence %
A	82	53	29	64.63	35.37	25.55
B	82	50	32	60.98	39.02	25.55
C	85	47	38	55.29	44.71	26.48
D	72	49	23	68.06	31.94	22.43

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	232	72.27	153	79	65.95	34.05
Doctor	10	3.12	7	3	70	30
Cop	13	4.05	12	1	92.31	7.69
Roleblocker	22	6.85	6	16	27.27	72.73
Goon	41	12.77	18	23	43.9	56.1
No Lynch	3	0.93	3	0	100	0

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	57	69.51	39	18	68.42	28.07
Doctor**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cop	5	6.1	5	0	100	0
Roleblocker**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Goon	19	23.17	8	11	42.11	57.89
No Lynch	1	1.22	1	0	100	0

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	60	73.17	39	21	65	35
Doctor	4	4.88	3	1	75	25
Cop**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Roleblocker**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Goon	17	20.73	7	10	41.18	58.82
No Lynch	1	1.22	1	0	100	0

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	58	68.24	33	25	56.9	43.1
Doctor	6	7.06	4	2	66.67	33.33
Cop	8	9.41	7	1	87.5	12.5
Roleblocker	10	11.76	2	8	20	80
Goon	3	3.53	1	2	33.33	66.67
No Lynch	0	0	0	0	0	0

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	57	79.17	42	15	73.68	26.32
Doctor**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cop**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Roleblocker	12	16.67	4	8	33.33	66.67
Goon	2	2.78	2	0	100	0
No Lynch	1	1.39	1	0	100	0

Total Games	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
388	265	123	68.3	31.7

Variant*	Appearances	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %	Occurrence %
CA	114	82	32	71.93	28.07	29.38
CB	85	57	28	67.06	32.94	21.91
CC	124	75	49	60.48	39.52	31.96
CD	65	51	14	78.46	21.54	16.75

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	242	62.37	184	58	76.03	23.97
Doctor	25	6.44	18	7	72	28
Cop	27	6.96	22	5	81.48	18.52
Goon	84	21.65	34	50	40.48	59.52
No Lynch	10	2.58	8	2	80	20

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	72	63.16	56	16	77.78	22.22
Doctor**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cop	11	9.65	10	1	90.91	9.09
Goon	27	23.68	13	14	48.15	51.85
No Lynch	4	3.51	3	1	75	25

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	50	58.82	37	13	74	26
Doctor	13	15.29	10	3	76.92	23.08
Cop**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Goon	19	22.35	8	11	42.11	57.89
No Lynch	3	3.53	2	1	66.67	33.33

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	73	58.87	47	26	64.38	35.62
Doctor	12	9.68	8	4	66.67	33.33
Cop	16	12.9	12	4	75	25
Goon	21	16.94	6	15	28.57	71.43
No Lynch	2	1.61	2	0	100	0

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	47	72.31	44	3	93.62	6.38
Doctor**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cop**	0	0	0	0	0	0
Goon	17	26.15	7	10	41.18	58.82
No Lynch	1	1.54	1	0	100	0

Total Games	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
40	22	18	55	45

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	18	45	12	6	66.67	33.33
Doctor	5	12.5	3	2	60	40
Cop	3	7.5	3	0	100	0
Goon	6	15	3	3	50	50
Roleblocker	7	17.5	0	7	0	100
No Lynch	1	2.5	1	0	100	0

Total Games	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
101	47	54	46.53	53.47

D1 Lynch	Occurrences	Percentage	Mafia Wins	Town Wins	Mafia Win %	Town Win %
Vanilla Townie	57	56.44	32	25	56.14	43.86
Doctor	10	9.9	6	4	60	40
Cop	7	6.93	6	1	85.71	14.29
Goon	23	22.77	0	23	0	100
No Lynch	4	3.96	3	1	75	25

/in b4 pie saying he is awseome and stuff.

Comparing Pie E7 to either setup, less games are played. More than 2x for Original and more than 21x in F11. I think that, untill Pie E7 is played at least 60 more times, it doesn't have enough data, compared to the others.

Yeah, the biggest problem with Pie E7 is that it gets unwinnable for the Mafia if the Town happens to hit the Roleblocker D1 (which is essentially blind luck in a Day Start game). I think someone worked out an actual optimal strategy for that, but I don't recall it offhand. Faster game, but more random; I think F11 provides enough cover for a lone Goon to pull it out, at least occasionally.

Mr. Flay wrote:Yeah, the biggest problem with Pie E7 is that it gets unwinnable for the Mafia if the Town happens to hit the Roleblocker D1 (which is essentially blind luck in a Day Start game). I think someone worked out an actual optimal strategy for that, but I don't recall it offhand. Faster game, but more random; I think F11 provides enough cover for a lone Goon to pull it out, at least occasionally.

Even in F11, if the RB is lynched D1, the game is very close to over. If he tries to fakeclaim Cop then gets countered, the Town wins.

Alternate title: A guide to why No Lynching D1 is always a bad idea.
Just look at those statistics.

Why only day 1? jw

For one it, along with day 2, are the only two days that occur consistently throughout every game. Secondly, I haven't had the chance to get around to much more than what I have posted, I only completed the recording yesterday. The next thing on my list is to see what the effects are of which day the first mafia is killed. Maybe a similar analysis of the Day One lynches should be done on Night One kills? If you have any other ideas just run them by me.

Sure. How many times did scum hit a Power Role (relative to the chance of a power role being in that game) would be an interesting statistic. I don't think it'll vary much from random chance, but I might be wrong.

Also, since I didn't say it explicitly earlier, nice work kunkstar!

SensFan wrote:

Mr. Flay wrote:Yeah, the biggest problem with Pie E7 is that it gets unwinnable for the Mafia if the Town happens to hit the Roleblocker D1 (which is essentially blind luck in a Day Start game). I think someone worked out an actual optimal strategy for that, but I don't recall it offhand. Faster game, but more random; I think F11 provides enough cover for a lone Goon to pull it out, at least occasionally.

Even in F11, if the RB is lynched D1, the game is very close to over. If he tries to fakeclaim Cop then gets countered, the Town wins.

Yeah, but 20% chance (while slim) is better than 0%. I was in one of those early Newbie Games where there was literally NO way for me to win unless the Cop f*cked up; it was extremely demoralizing.

Wow. There's a pretty good chance that mods aren't doing their setups randomly in the current setup though it's not really not provable to a statistically significant level, but mods were terrible about it in C9.

Mr. Flay wrote:Sure. How many times did scum hit a Power Role (relative to the chance of a power role being in that game) would be an interesting statistic. I don't think it'll vary much from random chance, but I might be wrong.

I think you're wrong, mainly because I think IC scum are better than average at picking up scum tells and newbie vanilla are much worse than average at dropping vanilla tells.

Wow. There's a pretty good chance that mods aren't doing their setups randomly in the current setup though it's not really not provable to a statistically significant level, but mods were terrible about it in C9.

Not really. 82/82/85/72 is fairly balanced, and you would expect some random drift from 81/80/80/80. The C9 numbers are clearly out of whack, however.

You'd expect some random drift, but it's still a bit suspect that the no-power-roles setup is the one that keeps coming up low, given the C9 trend. At least we're doing a better job there.

Flay wrote:I think someone worked out an actual optimal strategy for that, but I don't recall it offhand. Faster game, but more random; I think F11 provides enough cover for a lone Goon to pull it out, at least occasionally.

Eh. The main difference in F11 is that half the time the setup won't have power roles, so the Goon has a chance in the resulting Vanilla game. In the setup with both power roles, it's probably a little worse for the Goon going into Night (less chance of hitting the Cop, one extra mislynch for the town). It a little better, though, because in the Pie E7 worst case, town has a forced win (D1 RB lynch, Cop and Doc both survive the night), while in F11 the scum still has some faint hope (I think). The extra townies hurt the town in that specific scenario (but overall, the EV is better for the town entering N1, if they have both power roles).

All that said, I've never had a problem with that aspect of Pie E7. The value of the RB means that the scum should play to make sure the RB stays alive, which potentially gives more grouping-tells, which makes for a better game. If the town hits the RB D1, it's because the scum played poorly (or because the town played really well); I'd guess the fact that more RBs were lynched than Goons on D1 is a result of the small sample size.

SensFan: It's worth noting that the Goon can't fake claim in F11 either, *even if there are no power roles* (again in the case where the RB was lynched D1), because no Doc will claim and the town will realize they aren't in the both-power-roles setup. (Correct play in F11 is for the Cop to come out D2, if there is one, and then for the Doc to come out D3, if still alive. This ensures that the Cop survives to the endgame, and confirms the Doc even if the Cop hasn't investigated him, and catches lying scum if he fakes in a no-power-role setup.)

Thok wrote:

Mr. Flay wrote:Sure. How many times did scum hit a Power Role (relative to the chance of a power role being in that game) would be an interesting statistic. I don't think it'll vary much from random chance, but I might be wrong.

I think you're wrong, mainly because I think IC scum are better than average at picking up scum tells and newbie vanilla are much worse than average at dropping vanilla tells.

Wow. There's a pretty good chance that mods aren't doing their setups randomly in the current setup though it's not really not provable to a statistically significant level, but mods were terrible about it in C9.

Not really. 82/82/85/72 is fairly balanced, and you would expect some random drift from 81/80/80/80. The C9 numbers are clearly out of whack, however.

I just did the numbers really quickly, and there's about a 15% chance that D would be 72 or fewer if random. So, eh. Not really conclusive or anything, but it's not nothing either. When paired with the already noted tendency that is nearly 100% certain in C9 for mods to avoid vanilla games, I think it's very likely it's going on in F11.

Why not just get the newbie list mod to do the selection? sign up for a newbie game and when he gives the go-ahead, he also tells the mod which setup to run.

I think I like Pie E7 though.

Why not just get the newbie list mod to do the selection?

We did this for a little while... it's a bit of additional work for the List Mod, though, and we shouldn't to do it. (And it's clear with F11 that we have hammered home the "do it randomly" point enough that very few, if any, mods are "cheating", whereas with C9 it was a pretty significant problem. I don't have any reason to think it's affecting games.)

(It's worth noting for historical reasons that the disparity in the C9 numbers was at least partly due to mods using different methods for choosing the roles, rather than mods "rerolling" when they hit the vanilla setup. I remember someone, due to confusion over what "C9" stood for, randomized the setup by choosing 5 pro-town roles out of the 7 "available" roles - 1 Cop, 1 Doc, 5 Townies - and the probability of getting the vanilla setup doing it that way is only 1/21. Others did a 1/6 - 1/3 - 1/3 - 1/6 split, rather than 1/4 - 1/4 - 1/4 - 1/4. But I think we did have a few own up to throwing out the vanilla setup.)

(The obvious modification to make to F11 to improve the town win rate - and I'm sure it has been suggested before, either for F11 or C9 - is to throw out the vanilla setup, of course. Mafia know if they are in a 2 power role setup, which makes it Pie E7+2, and they can protect the RB accordingly; and they know if there's only 1 power role, but not which, preserving the "power role hunting" aspect - in order to fake claim more effectively, they need the real power role dead or outed or figured out.)

seems a reasonable solution, mith.

lol @ Town doing 2% better than random in F11-D and 1% worse than random in C9-D.

Nice job, imo. I'd be interested to see how cop deaths correlate with win rates.

mith wrote:You'd expect some random drift, but it's still a bit suspect that the no-power-roles setup is the one that keeps coming up low, given the C9 trend. At least we're doing a better job there.

IIRC from earlier analyses, we're actually doing better than when we started with F11 (and obviously better than with C9). I think we're always going to have some residual, if we're doing selection right. A time-based analysis would prove me right or wrong...

Elmo wrote:I'd be interested to see how cop deaths correlate with win rates.

You mean Cop deaths after D1? It already drops Town chances to 7.7% or so... not sure how much more you'd learn, though what Town chances are after a N1 Cop death could be interesting.

It's weird how Roleblockers are being lynched D1 significantly than Goons in the C & D setups.

iamausername wrote:It's weird how Roleblockers are being lynched D1 significantly

more

than Goons in the C & D setups.

Seriously. Somebody needs lessons in "how to protect your faction's PRs".

Oh, wow, I had only looked at the Pie E7 lynch numbers. That's... surprising.

Mr. Flay wrote:

iamausername wrote:It's weird how Roleblockers are being lynched D1 significantly

more

than Goons in the C & D setups.

Seriously. Somebody needs lessons in "how to protect your faction's PRs".

Perhaps this is due to people playing roleblocker more conservatively/unnaturally, as their individual survival is more important to team success. The same thing can happen with town powerroles sometimes too - current meta seems to reward brazen, aggressive playstyles as pro-town which are traits more commonly associated with VT's.

I imagine it'd be too burdensome to find out how often a cop, who survives to day 2, and has a guilty manages to get that guilty person lynched.

I say this because I think this number would be very useful.

zoraster wrote:I imagine it'd be too burdensome to find out how often a cop, who survives to day 2, and has a guilty manages to get that guilty person lynched.

Without coming out as Cop? I expect the sample size is relatively small, but it'd be pretty awesome to see, I agree.

Hoopla: I hadn't considered that, mostly because I find Newbie Games to be pretty bad at applying site-meta. Not enough newbies know it, and few ICs really want to apply it with an iron fist (not sure about SEs). I'm happy to be wrong, and the sample size of games seems small enough to scan for trends (if kunkstar could link those 22, plus maybe the 7 Pie E7s).