Mini 946 The new Zachtown (Game Over!)

DeathRowKitty · Post Post #500 (ISO) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 3:55 am

So much for cross-kills...

We're definitely dealing with two scum teams here (or one scum team and an SK that eats its victims). There's no way VP or Vi was killed by a pro-town player.

I think we should no lynch here. If we lynch correctly, we're betting on scum cross-killing.

Let's assume the two scum teams are mafia and werewolves (which flavor suggests). Let's say we lynch one of the wolves today. If the mafia manage to kill the other wolf, but the wolf kills a townie at night, the game ends in a mafia win.

If it's mafia+SK, lynching the SK also leads to a loss, as the game would be 2 vs. 2 tomorrow.

I'd rather we give scum a night to cross-kill. This does potentially run the small risk of all remaining townies being wiped out tonight, but it would be in scum's best interest to try to cross-kill tonight. Being down 2-1 ot the other scum team with a townie still alive would put that scum team at a huge disadvantage.

Basically,

FoS nolynch

Col.Cathart · Post Post #501 (ISO) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 2:29 pm

DRK: No lynch sounds like a reasonable option, though I want to hear, what do you think of massclaim.

Alex V/LA'ing without any useful opinion is greatly disturbing...

DeathRowKitty · Post Post #502 (ISO) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 7:48 pm

Well, considering scum have to go for a cross-kill tonight, I see nothing wrong with giving them more to base their kills on. We should probably MC and then no lynch.

I'm fine with Jason claiming first with popcorn thereafter.

Lacey · Post Post #503 (ISO) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 8:54 pm

Agree with DRK's nolynch option. It seems the only sensible option.

I am against a mass claim, however. If we are to go nolynch today, a mass claim makes no sense. It would alert scum as to the remaining roles, with no benefit for us. I will agree with a mass claim only after scum are given another night to cross kill. No use flagging power town for scum, to dissuade them from the cross kill.

Col.Cathart · Post Post #504 (ISO) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 9:04 pm

Lacey: Emphasis on 'If we'.

Sorry if it wasn't clear in my last post, but I suggested either Massclaim or no lynch. Combining them makes little sense to me.

Lacey · Post Post #505 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 4:38 am

Col.Cathart wrote:Lacey: Emphasis on 'If we'.

Sorry if it wasn't clear in my last post, but I suggested either Massclaim or no lynch. Combining them makes little sense to me.

Ah, ok. I was a bit confused then. My suggestion is no lynch. A lynch today seems to serve only as king maker for the scum teams, something I am not eager to do.

jasonT1981 · Post Post #506 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:21 am

I tend to agree it is one or the other and not both. I am tending to go with a no-lynch. However jeromus needs to check in ASAP with his thoughts.. as does Alex, she could have at least given her opinions before going V/LA on the events of the night and how she felt we could proceed.

DeathRowKitty · Post Post #507 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 10:43 am

Guys, scum don't want to kill town tonight. It doesn't matter if we out any power roles. Any scum team that doesn't hit scum will be at a huge disadvantage. Even town PRs are outed, it would be stupid for scum to go after them.

I vote for mass claim + no lynch.

Lacey · Post Post #508 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 11:29 am

DeathRowKitty wrote:Guys, scum don't want to kill town tonight. It doesn't matter if we out any power roles. Any scum team that doesn't hit scum will be at a huge disadvantage. Even town PRs are outed, it would be stupid for scum to go after them.

I vote for mass claim + no lynch.

You are counting on:

A) Scum being smart about this, they killed two obvtown players last night despite the fact that not doing so would have secured a win under two scum teams.
B) The power roles may be significant.

Also it may be the case that scum can coordinate. Last nights kills were surprising. Scum beheaded town by taking out both of our top investigators. Maybe it happened by chance, but I'm not going to bet the entire game on it.

If are to go nolynch, and I think we should, I'd rather scum face the night with as little information as possible.

DeathRowKitty · Post Post #509 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 11:39 am

If we're going to no lynch, we want scum to have as much information as possible. We want them to know exactly who's town and scum. If that means outing a PR or two, it's worth it, considering that optimal play for scum is unquestionably to try to kill other scum. If they were too stupid to realize it before, then I'll spam this thread with reasons why until it gets their attention. Any scum team that doesn't listen will lose.

Col.Cathart · Post Post #510 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 11:59 am

You know what, people? I thought about scenarios for a bit, and I think no-lynch is a terrible idea.

Let's look at not-instant-town-lose scenarios if we'll proceed with the scumhunt.

a) Ideal scenario: We lynch scum. Ratio Town:Scum1:Scum2 will be 2:2:1. Scum cross-kills themselves. 3 player, two town - normal LyLo.

b) little less optimistic: We lynch scum (2:2:1). Scum2 kills Scum1 member, but Scum1 hits a townie. This leaves us with 1:1:1. Any chance for anyone to actually win this is to no lynch and town has to pray, scum will cross-kill themselves. Any other outcome will result in scum win or tie if they'll both target a townie.

c) similar scenario: We lynch yet another townie. Ratio is 1:2:2. Scum cross-kills themselves, and the rest is the same as in point b)

Any other scenario means defeat for the town. Scenarios b) and c) are completely not dependable on town in any way after the end of D3.

No lynch scenarios:

z) Scum cross-kills themselves. The ratio is 2:1:1. Town has to no-lynch again and pray scum will either target the same townie or they will both kill each other or else town is doomed (lynching any scum means insta-lose, lynching town leads to 1:1:1 scenario).

Any other scenario leads to town insta-lose. Town has no control over this one whatsoever.

--------------

As you can see, if I didn't miss any other town-survives scenarios, no-lynch is a terrible option in comparison to lynch.

I no longer support no-lynch scenario. We need to go with hunting, and so it's again time for the massclaim

Lacey · Post Post #511 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 1:43 pm

Those are some convincing arguments CC. I'm going to run the numbers and think about this.

Zachrulez · Post Post #512 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:08 am

Jeromus has been prodded.

Alexithymia · Post Post #513 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:55 am

Jason wrote: she could have at least given her opinions before going V/LA on the events of the night and how she felt we could proceed.

I'm sorry for my inconsideratity, after a whole day of going from manic to depressed, self harm and sucidal impulsiveness including nearly jumping off a motorway briidge, my top priority should have been coming back here and discussing my thoughts on night and how we should proceed rather than going to a doctor and trying to get my head sorted out. Your right, I really need to get my priorities sorted.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I like C.C.'s idea and totally agree with him. However, I don't feel comfortable revealing my real when it isn't lylo. I certainly don't want to reveal it during mylo. That would be stupid.

Col.Cathart · Post Post #514 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:01 am

Alexithymia wrote:I like C.C.'s idea and totally agree with him. However, I don't feel comfortable revealing my real when it isn't lylo. I certainly don't want to reveal it during mylo. That would be stupid.

If you say so... We have a knife on our throat, this may be very well the last day the town actually has a chance to win. While lynching yet another townie due to mistake won't be game over yet [see scenario c) in my previous post], it's much better to lynch scum today anyway, and I think massclaim would help to actually accomplish that.

Alexithymia · Post Post #515 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:10 am

Just realised since there is 6 of us left, we have to have 2 scumteams otherwise we would have lost by now...

Say we have the standard 2 man scumteams, that would mean we have

2 scum
2 scum
2 town, one of whom is me.

If we lynch today, in this situation, we have a 2/3 (66%) chance of hitting scum. 1/3 (33%) chance of hitting town. Those are pretty good odds compared to other games i've came across.

Btw, I'm pretty sure C.C is the last townie, if this is the case. I breadcrumbed my role earlier and he had the chance to kill me during the night if he was scum.

I'm not full claiming just yet, I will say, however that I am town aligned.

Col.Cathart · Post Post #516 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:40 am

Alexithymia wrote:Btw, I'm pretty sure C.C is the last townie, if this is the case. I breadcrumbed my role earlier and he had the chance to kill me during the night if he was scum.

Yeah. Clever, gotta say. And risky, considering I wasn't really town-looking to begin with. Although I couldn't really relate this breadcrumb to any role I can think of, I certainly did get the message. You used some kind of translator, or you had someone to actually translate this for you?

Alexithymia · Post Post #517 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 5:21 am

Col.Cathart wrote:
Alexithymia wrote:Btw, I'm pretty sure C.C is the last townie, if this is the case. I breadcrumbed my role earlier and he had the chance to kill me during the night if he was scum.
Yeah. Clever, gotta say. And risky, considering I wasn't really town-looking to begin with. Although I couldn't really relate this breadcrumb to any role I can think of, I certainly did get the message. You used some kind of translator, or you had someone to actually translate this for you?

I've been teaching myself other languages for a while now. Learnt French and Spanish at school, know how to read and translate some latin, dutch, italian, german, japanese, portugese and polish. Either by reading books, talking to people on MS or through my co-workers (half of whom are portugese, a quatre of which a polish).

Couldn't translate 'Town' very well, though. So I used 'City' instead >.<

I dunno why I did it, I just had a gut feeling that you might be town :/ and I hoped that if I was killed, the town would be smart enough to look through my meta and see how I have breadcrumbed in the past.

Col.Cathart · Post Post #518 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 5:53 am

Actually, you used the word 'Center' or 'Central point', which was the most confusing part of that breadcrumb. For the future, use 'Miasto'

Anyway, enough of this offtopic. Where's the rest of the people?

Alexithymia · Post Post #519 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 6:00 am

*facepalm* I knew it wasnt quite right. Shouldnt doubt myself with other languages, I was gonna used 'Miasto' but didn't think it looked right in the context.

Oh well, at least I havent accidentally insulted you like I did Maemuki and Zazie...I refered to Mae as an old man once...

Yeah...where are they? Shall we lynch them while they're gone? I'm about 98% sure you're town at the moment and I'm 100% sure I am...

Alexithymia · Post Post #520 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 6:30 am

Vote Jeromus

Get your jacksie in here, I know you've been online today, you wrote a massive post in another game.

Lacey · Post Post #521 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 7:49 am

I'm still against the idea of a mass claim. I will not mass claim unless there is a protector role willing to back me up.

Col.Cathart · Post Post #522 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 11:44 am

You know what? You're right. After even more thinking about all of this, claim moment should happen tomorrow. All pros of claiming will be in full effect since eventual D4 anyway.

Here should be reasons, why and when will massclaim have it's perk during D4 under certain circumstances, when not, and why not now, but considering multiple branches of any single scenario, they will end as a Great Chinese Wall of Text. Just do the math yourself, analyze what will happen if (insert outcome with claimed role and with unclaimed role) will happen, and you should come to more or less the same conclusion. If someone really disagrees at this point, then we can start discussion (if someone wants the main reason of my shift of POV, it would be 'I really would like to avoid 1:1:1 situation [actually very possible at this point] with proven townie' [most likely three-way tie or two-way scum tie, town win chances are somewhere near 0. Town won't win and therefore I don't want it], which may happen if we will massclaim right now).

In the meantime, how about lynching Jason (for the same reasons I was for his lynch on D2), Jeromus (terrible underperformance, avoiding the thread if Alex speaks truth in 520) or DRK (his gut-scum for VP during entire game makes me think he might be responsible for his death, if he was actually hunting for mafia)?

Basically, I feel that both Alex and Lacey hinted a powerrole, and so, from my perspective (one of the two remaining townies), one of them is a dirty liar, but I think those other 3 mentioned above are much more safe bet for scum right now.

Since there is already one vote on jeromus, and we are not scared of scum quick-hammer for the town lose,

vote: jeromus

(L-2), though I am totally open for changing it for anyone else from 'scummy trio' and Alex/Lacey if someone will find good enough reasons to do so. Lynch at this point is not really that powerful anyway, and all the drama will happen during the night (not to mention 66% chance of hitting scum at random, and 80% chance for me to vote scum at this point).

Lacey · Post Post #523 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:46 pm

I don't see an Alex/Col connection. So I'm willing to believe one of you is town (probably Col, as Alex has been scummy as all get out all game). Which means jeromus, who has been my pick from scum since day one, is probably on the opposite team as Alex.

vote: jeromus

Scum teams, keep in mind that tonight you MUST cross kill, you should have listened to Vi/VP last night.

DeathRowKitty · Post Post #524 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 7:06 pm

Sorry for my recent inactivity. Post coming tomorrow (well, today, but there will be an extended period of sleep between now and then, which makes it tomorrow).