Newbie 816 - Game over!

[ElectricBadger]

i stick to my vote, a no lynch is a free pass for scum

But is it worth lynching over on its own? Note that we've had three people vote No Lynch already this game, so clearly at least one town is voting that way too.

[tfrench]

then maybe we have 3 scumers already>

[ElectricBadger]

That would be rather shocking with only 2 mafia in the game.

[imkingdavid]

Right now, because he put pancakes BACK at L-1, I'm going to

Vote: TF

(that is, Tfrench, abbreviated).

However, since Dramonic was 3rd on the first wagon, I am going to have to put my

FoS: Dramonic

/agree with tfrench. The 2nd L-1 for a very meh reason after my unvote and comment feels to me like a goon piling on a bandwagon hoping to carry through a failing quick lynch - possibly reading his scumbuddy's vote as a signal to act? That, or a townie who was paying no attention to things, which is almost worth lynching on principle anyways.

Dramonic doesn't read particularly scummy to me. I think it's fairly clear he tried to vote 2nd (making Cird the 3rd) (though also agree with the mod not counting the vote), and either way I don't see it as scummy. I'm familiar with the '3rd vote=bandwagon forming=scum tell' theory, but I disagree with it. I like the 3rd spot personally, because it transforms a couple random votes into significant pressure to make a person respond, but doesn't push so far as to be a real danger. It's also always very interesting to see who pushes it further. Not saying I clear dramonic, I just don't read any tells into his vote.

Agree with Adel's associations as playing the odds, but links are pretty weak in this phase still, so not going to bank on that too much.

A couple good scummy suspects, and tf is the more suspicious by a small margin. Lets nudge this up a notch and see where it goes.

Unvote Fitz, Vote tfrench.

imo, the 3rd spot is a very safe space to pile on. Because you aren't the hammer and you didn't put the person at L-1, and on the same token you didn't help initiate a bandwagon by being one of the first two. Let me tell you that multiple times I've seen scum be the third on bandwagon and slip by. Maybe not

because

of that, but it didn't put suspicion on them in any case.

Actually, we should not put someone at L-1 until we are fairly certain that they are scum. In fact, while we have two scum floating around, L-2 isn't safe either because they can both pile on if they're not both already on it.

i stick to my vote, a no lynch is a free pass for scum

Even still, if pancakes is town and get lynched, that's two townies gone.

Guys, realize that we have a good while until deadline. No need to hurry through the day.

after reading all that has been said i think this...

nolynches are for mafia and losers and i'm a townie and too cool for school so..

unvote vote pancakes

Just be advised that stressing that you are town doesn't make you look any more town. Because that's exactly what scum try to do: look as townie as possible.

[Adel]

I don't understand voting tfrench over havingfits. Please explain it to me again.

[imkingdavid]

Ok, HF put pancakes at L-1 originally. TF continued and put pancakes at L-1 AGAIN after EB unvoted. So while I agree that HF's L-1 vote was suspicious, it seems moreso suspicious that TF would see the L-1, the unvote, the reasoning, and then cast the L-1 again.

Does that make sense?

[Adel]

Ok, HF put pancakes at L-1 originally. TF continued and put pancakes at L-1 AGAIN after EB unvoted. So while I agree that HF's L-1 vote was suspicious, it seems moreso suspicious that TF would see the L-1, the unvote, the reasoning, and then cast the L-1 again.

Does that make sense?

who can be scum if TF is scum?
who can't be scum if TF is scum?
who can be scum if TF is town?
who can't be scum if TF is town?

[imkingdavid]

Ok, HF put pancakes at L-1 originally. TF continued and put pancakes at L-1 AGAIN after EB unvoted. So while I agree that HF's L-1 vote was suspicious, it seems moreso suspicious that TF would see the L-1, the unvote, the reasoning, and then cast the L-1 again.

Does that make sense?

who can be scum if TF is scum?
who can't be scum if TF is scum?
who can be scum if TF is town?
who can't be scum if TF is town?

I'm not entirely sure I understand what you're getting at with those questions. Should I ask the same to you but change TF to HF?
And I don't see why we are trying to look for partners at this point. As I showed in my second post, there is very little chance of being correct until we lynch one scum.
Why are you so concerned about defending TF?

[Adel]

unvote, vote: imkingdavid

it is impolite to answer a question with a question.

[imkingdavid]

unvote, vote: imkingdavid

it is impolite to answer a question with a question.

Sometimes the best answer to a question is found in another question.
Besides... since when is impoliteness a scum tell? And do we have to be polite when scum hunting?

I will agree that it is a bit of a scum tell to dodge questions. However, instead of dodging them, I asked for clarification (when I said "I'm not entirely sure I understand what you're getting at with those questions."). So I don't see the validity of your reasoning for your vote.

In any case, for the sake of being

polite

...

who can be scum if TF is scum?
who can't be scum if TF is scum?
who can be scum if TF is town?
who can't be scum if TF is town?

1) 1 other person
2) 7 other people
3) 2 other people
4) Himself and 6 other people.
...other than that simple math, I'm not sure exactly what you were wanting. Would you care to be a little more... specific (for lack of a more suitable word)?

Now that I've answered your questions, can you answer mine?

Why are you so concerned about defending TF?

Thanks.

[imkingdavid]

@ Vel: Neither lailai nor pancakes have posted since the 26th. Can you please prod them?

Also, HavingFitz hasn't posted since the 27th, and will need to be prodded if he doesn't post tomorrow.

@Adel: another question: Is impoliteness a bigger scum tell to you than bandwagonning?
Because I've only heard of the latter ever being a legit scum tell. And you were pretty quick to switch from HF (for L-1ing pancakes) to me (for mere impoliteness).

[Adel]

In any case, for the sake of being

polite

...

who can be scum if TF is scum?
who can't be scum if TF is scum?
who can be scum if TF is town?
who can't be scum if TF is town?

1) 1 other person
2) 7 other people
3) 2 other people
4) Himself and 6 other people.

stop being evasive, scumbag, name names.

[imkingdavid]

In any case, for the sake of being

polite

...

who can be scum if TF is scum?
who can't be scum if TF is scum?
who can be scum if TF is town?
who can't be scum if TF is town?

1) 1 other person
2) 7 other people
3) 2 other people
4) Himself and 6 other people.

stop being evasive, scumbag, name names.

...you're serious?
I mean... I've repeatedly stated that it DOES NOT help town IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM to attempt to pair people. Did you miss my post? If you saw it, what are your thoughts about it?

I'm not going to try and pair people that might or might not be scum until I know for a fact who at least one of the scum is.
In any case, I'm not going to be pressured into hurting the town by one vote from you.
But since you're so desperate for names, you may feel free to list people in whatever way makes you sleep peacefully at night.

And while you're at it, you can answer the questions that

you

skipped:

since when is impoliteness a scum tell? And do we have to be polite when scum hunting?

and

Why are you so concerned about defending TF?

You seem pretty determined to call me scum. What are your accusations against me? From what I can tell they are that: 1) I am not being polite and 2) I am being evasive/avoiding your questions.

Well, 1) you calling me "scumbag" isn't really the most polite thing I've seen, and 2) I just stated a couple of questions that you avoided.

[Adel]

I'm holding out on you questions until I get an adequate answer to the four simple questions that I asked first.

Name names, please.

[imkingdavid]

I have already stated why I do not wish to answer these questions: it does not help the town. Since you seem to feel that we should not be helping town, I will oblige my thoughts on who might/might not be scum or town. However, I do not feel that they should be used in any case, as they are only tiny suspicions. And as a warning, you may be once more a bit unsatisfied with my answers. But I am answering your questions.

who can be scum if TF is scum?
who can't be scum if TF is scum?
who can be scum if TF is town?
who can't be scum if TF is town?

1) If TF is scum, it is likely that HF is also scum. Unrelated to TF's alignment, I'm beginning to think you are acting scummy yourself. And as a literal answer to your question of who can/is able to be scum, anyone else playing the game can be scum. It's random. Only the mod and the players themselves know for sure.
2) Not to suggest that there are more than two scum, but I am not going to clear anyone until I know that they are town-aligned. So I cannot answer this question.
3) To be quite literal, anyone besides TF. If TF is town, anyone besides him that is playing has the same amount of chance of being scum as anyone else that is playing.
4) See #2

[Adel]

As a follow up, let me explain why I think it's a bad idea to pair two people as possible scum partners before you lynch the first scum. Here are a few scenarios:

Scenario 1

You pair 1 Townie and 1 Scum. You lynch the townie first, and since you paired the two, you will find it less likely that the actual scum is really scum. So you let him go based on your failed pairing.

Bad for town.

Scenario 2

You pair 1 Townie and 1 Scum. You lynch the scum first, and since you paired the two, you find it very likely that the actual townie is scum. So you lynch the townie as well. While you might have found a scum, you ended up lynching a townie for no good reason.

Bad for town

Scenario 3

You pair 2 Townies. You lynch one or both of them (just to make sure).

Very bad for town.

Scenario 4

You pair 2 Scum. This is the ONLY way it can go well. And at this point, where there are 9 players, I don't think it's highly likely that unless we get lucky we will pair scum.

Good for town, but HIGHLY unlikely.

So that is why you at least wait until the first scum is gone to look for links between two people. In my last game, town lost because they focussed on who might be linked.

Also, can we try and be a bit more active? This game looks to be going a bit slow, imo. (4 pages in 1 week is slow to me)

Finally, understand that we might not lynch scum Day 1. In fact, the odds are against it (7/9 are not scum, only a 2/9 chance of being correct).

However, since there have been so many unnecessary bandwagons, I would recommend that we please try to do some thinking before we place our votes, especially when we get up in the L-2 and L-1 and Hammer areas.

My vote is on TF right now, but I will change it if someone else appears more scummy to me.

this post is so misguided it is breathtaking.

Examining connections between players and voting patterns are the two most reliable ways of identifying who is scum. Part of examining connections between players is encouraging players to express what their opinion of other players is, like the four questions I asked iamkingdavid. More voting and more bandwagons on players yields more empirical information that can be used later in the game.

The four scenarios he listed are true enough, but just like the lynch on day 1 that will probably lynch a townie, their utility is in identifying the entire scum team later in the game.

[Adel]

Should I ask the same to you but change TF to HF?

yes, I think that would a be a useful question for you to ask.

And I don't see why we are trying to look for partners at this point. As I showed in my second post, there is very little chance of being correct until we lynch one scum.

as you

claimed

in that post, but it is not true.

Why are you so concerned about defending TF?

Because I can see HF being scum with more people than I can see TF being scum with. I think that both are scummy, but HF is more likely to be scum.

[Adel]

@Adel: another question: Is impoliteness a bigger scum tell to you than bandwagonning?
Because I've only heard of the latter ever being a legit scum tell. And you were pretty quick to switch from HF (for L-1ing pancakes) to me (for mere impoliteness).

I didn't vote HF for L-1 pancakes, I voted him bacause I can easily see him being scum with TF or Cirdua or EB (thanks to EB switching from HF to TF). I

FTR, I don't think that impoliteness is a scumtell.

[Adel]

I've repeatedly stated that it DOES NOT help town IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM to attempt to pair people. Did you miss my post? If you saw it, what are your thoughts about it?

saying that something is true does not make it true, and repetition has no effect. I think that your post was logical, but logic varies with player aptitude with logic, not player alignment.

I'm not going to try and pair people that might or might not be scum until I know for a fact who at least one of the scum is.
In any case, I'm not going to be pressured into hurting the town by one vote from you.
But since you're so desperate for names, you may feel free to list people in whatever way makes you sleep peacefully at night.


And while you're at it, you can answer the questions that

you

skipped:

since when is impoliteness a scum tell? And do we have to be polite when scum hunting?

impoliteness is not a scum tell, and we do not have to be polite when we are scum hunting.

and

Why are you so concerned about defending TF?

I think that HF is more likey to be scum, and the way that TF picked up votes so quickly does not encourage me to think of him as scum.

You seem pretty determined to call me scum. What are your accusations against me? From what I can tell they are that: 1) I am not being polite and 2) I am being evasive/avoiding your questions.

Well, 1) you calling me "scumbag" isn't really the most polite thing I've seen, and 2) I just stated a couple of questions that you avoided.

I think that you are trying to:
1) discourage people from voting
2) discourage people from making the kind of posts (those linking players together) that will be useful under later analysis, once some players alignments are revealed by the mod
3) evade my questions

[imkingdavid]

As a follow up, let me explain why I think it's a bad idea to pair two people as possible scum partners before you lynch the first scum. Here are a few scenarios:

Scenario 1

You pair 1 Townie and 1 Scum. You lynch the townie first, and since you paired the two, you will find it less likely that the actual scum is really scum. So you let him go based on your failed pairing.

Bad for town.

Scenario 2

You pair 1 Townie and 1 Scum. You lynch the scum first, and since you paired the two, you find it very likely that the actual townie is scum. So you lynch the townie as well. While you might have found a scum, you ended up lynching a townie for no good reason.

Bad for town

Scenario 3

You pair 2 Townies. You lynch one or both of them (just to make sure).

Very bad for town.

Scenario 4

You pair 2 Scum. This is the ONLY way it can go well. And at this point, where there are 9 players, I don't think it's highly likely that unless we get lucky we will pair scum.

Good for town, but HIGHLY unlikely.

So that is why you at least wait until the first scum is gone to look for links between two people. In my last game, town lost because they focussed on who might be linked.

Also, can we try and be a bit more active? This game looks to be going a bit slow, imo. (4 pages in 1 week is slow to me)

Finally, understand that we might not lynch scum Day 1. In fact, the odds are against it (7/9 are not scum, only a 2/9 chance of being correct).

However, since there have been so many unnecessary bandwagons, I would recommend that we please try to do some thinking before we place our votes, especially when we get up in the L-2 and L-1 and Hammer areas.

My vote is on TF right now, but I will change it if someone else appears more scummy to me.

this post is so misguided it is breathtaking.

Examining connections between players and voting patterns are the two most reliable ways of identifying who is scum. Part of examining connections between players is encouraging players to express what their opinion of other players is, like the four questions I asked iamkingdavid. More voting and more bandwagons on players yields more empirical information that can be used later in the game.

The four scenarios he listed are true enough, but just like the lynch on day 1 that will probably lynch a townie, their utility is in identifying the entire scum team later in the game.

First, why did you bold that certain section of my post? I don't see any reference to it in your comments

Second, while I agree that we should examine connections between players, that method only works AFTER you know the alignment of at least one of those players. Otherwise, what's to keep you from examining two townies, and seeing them both as scum? I understand that you're IC and you've played a bunch of games and such, but you're not making much sense to me.

In any case, I agree that asking opinions of other players is a good thing. However, I disagree with your methods. If you wanted me to give my opinion on each of the other players, I would love to. But you forced me to in some way connect or disconnect them from TF. Which brings me back to the question: "Why are you so intent on defending TF?" Like I said, I'm not clearing anyone until I know their alignment.

Thirdly, are you really endorsing bandwagons? Yes, we need to pressure people, but not just on a whim. Once someone becomes suspicious to the whole town, people can start laying votes on and see how that person reacts under pressure. But just to bandwagon someone at random is stupid. Because once scum figure out that that's what you're doing, they'll be there for a quick lynch. (I'm aware of your excuse that you've posted however many times between your L-2 and the time someone makes it L-1. While that may look valid, I only see scum intentions behind bandwagonning as such).

Fourthly, you're right that the odds are in the scums' favor (as far as who we might lynch; it's a 7/9 chance that we'll lynch a townie and only a 2/9 chance that we'll lynch a scum). However, that doesn't mean that we shouldn't think about what we're doing. This whole game is about thinking through what's going on and logically deducing from what you see who is a potential scum.

EBWOPreview: oh, I see, you like to post a string of responses rather than one long on. Gotcha. I'll wait until you're done.

yes, I think that would a be a useful question for you to ask.

Alright, then. Same questions about HF. Go.

as you claimed in that post, but it is not true.

Oh, so it's not true that there is only a slight chance that we will be lucky enough to find the right two people? Then what is true?

Because I can see HF being scum with more people than I can see TF being scum with. I think that both are scummy, but HF is more likely to be scum.

But that's just it. If you can pair me with yourself, and me with, say, HF, then you've just listed 3 possible scum. But there's only 2 scum in the game. So it doesn't work.
I rate "more likely to be scum" based on actual evidence, rather than "more people COULD be his/her scum partner".

FTR, I don't think that impoliteness is a scumtell.

Then how come you voted me based on my "impoliteness"? If you didn't, then why didn't you put your actual suspicions into your post?

saying that something is true does not make it true, and repetition has no effect. I think that your post was logical, but logic varies with player aptitude with logic, not player alignment.

To the first part, I couldn't agree more. If I said the sky is orange with hot-pink polka dots and kept repeating it, that wouldn't make it true. Correct. However, why throw out good logic just because you don't think I am as good at mafia as you?

I think that you are trying to:
1) discourage people from voting
2) discourage people from making the kind of posts (those linking players together) that will be useful under later analysis, once some players alignments are revealed by the mod
3) evade my questions

1) There's a difference between saying "don't ever vote" and "think through your votes before voting". Our votes are our only weapon as town. We shouldn't throw them around lightly.
2) Yes, I would rather we didn't try to link people until we have more information about alignment. Once we have that information, by all means, knock yourself out... I have no problem with linking people AFTER we know who's who.

And it's not a bad thing to point out observations that you have about how people are relating. However, it is bad to say "they must be scum because they both did such and such.

Two townies can do such and such just as much as two scum.
3) I answered all of your questions. I find it hard to believe that so many people find asking for clarification of a question equivalent to evading having to answer it. I will answer ANY question that anyone asks me (related to the game, of course) as long as I know what you're asking. If you're taking a test at school and you don't understand what a question is asking, do you just BS it and hope you were right (and later get punished for answering incorrectly) or do you ask the teacher to clarify what he was wanting and then be able to get a passing mark?

[imkingdavid]

In the end, I find that the best way to scum hunt is to see if a users' posts have more of a scum motive or more of a town motive. So even if the users' individual posts might not be as scummy, if their overall posting habits and such are scummy, then that will put them higher on my list.

Not to say that post content is unimportant--on the contrary! Content coupled with posting habits... that's how I find scum.

But trying to pick and choose who *might* be partners with whom when you don't even know who one of the partners is seems pretty farfetched and more of a scum motive than a town motive. But that's just me.

[ElectricBadger]

Why are you so concerned about defending TF?

Because I can see HF being scum with more people than I can see TF being scum with. I think that both are scummy, but HF is more likely to be scum.

Am I correct in understanding that the difference you see as decisive is that Fitz has connections to more people than French?

Does this seem useful or indicative when even if we're right at this stage, only one connection actually exists? Why would more imply scum?

[Cirdua]

Actually, we should not put someone at L-1 until we are fairly certain that they are scum. In fact, while we have two scum floating around, L-2 isn't safe either because they can both pile on if they're not both already on it.

Uhm, do you really expect scum to be as stupid as to jump on a L-2 bandwagon to force a lynch? I mean, if two people were to suddenly jump on a wagon without much reasoning causing a hammer that would be seen as very suspicious. They'd probably get lynched Day 2.

[imkingdavid]

I just thought of another reason not to base your case solely off of links: distancing. Scum are going to want to make it look like they have little to do with each other. If done correctly, scum will avoid the creation of any links with their scum partner while still interacting with them. While that may be difficult for newb scum to do correctly their first time, it's definitely not impossible and is not to be out of the question.

Anyway,

Actually, we should not put someone at L-1 until we are fairly certain that they are scum. In fact, while we have two scum floating around, L-2 isn't safe either because they can both pile on if they're not both already on it.

Uhm, do you really expect scum to be as stupid as to jump on a L-2 bandwagon to force a lynch? I mean, if two people were to suddenly jump on a wagon without much reasoning causing a hammer that would be seen as very suspicious. They'd probably get lynched Day 2.

This can turn into WIFOM really really quickly. Because you would argue that scum would not be that stupid. And if scum actually did do that, they would argue the same thing. I'm just saying what's could happen--this is a newbie game.

Again, I'm not saying don't vote, I'm saying think about what you're voting for.

Questions:
Adel, why are you so intent on tunneling me? All I am trying to do is bring up logical solutions what has happened and been suggested (e.g. no lynch and look for scum pairs).
Cird, between myself and Adel, whose points make more sense/are more logical?
Dramonic, I saw you posting last night in MD. What are your thoughts on the thread? Also, your posts in this thread have been sort of lacking in actual content. It feels like you're just trying to coast by and look active (active lurking) by posting, but not contribute. Your vote on TF after me was a parrot vote.
LL - You have not posted anything recently; what are your thoughts?
HF - Same question; you only have 3 posts in the game, and none contribute to scum hunting.
Pancakes - Same question; you also only have 3 posts (a random vote, a misformatted vote for no lynch, and a corrected vote for no lynch). What do you think about what has gone on?
TF - You have... 2 votes on you. What is your defense?
EB - What are your thoughts on Adel tunneling me and throwing false accusations at me right after I replace in and post some logic?

[ElectricBadger]

EB - What are your thoughts on Adel tunneling me and throwing false accusations at me right after I replace in and post some logic?

Already posted, and awaiting Adel's response.

Also, I generally dislike when someone under pressure spams questions of all and sundry; reads like desperation/flailing/avoiding a line of questioning, without having anything real to focus on one or two other players.