Newbie 792--Mafia Island ~ Mafia win!

[Indigo Heron]

Boxman, trying to point fingers when you have something like this hanging over your head implies that you're trying to avert any kind of responsibility over this.

FoS: Boxman

@tracker: I'm going to assume you have not read all my posts properly.

@tracker (again on another entirely unrelated issue): Papa Zito's name was misspelt? Really? Can I see it?

@Papa Zito: I still think that Stoofer's First Law is still applicable to an F11 game, but the probability of the law being fulfilled is slightly lower, since there are more members.

You forgot the hypothetical presence of a doctor in this game as well. He/she would know the set-up of the game by now as well, if he/she was in the game.

[Boxman]

Something like

what

hanging over my head?

[Indigo Heron]

Eh...I confused you for AGar. Sorry there.

[Darkstrike_11]

On reflection, my earlier accusations of Mitey as coaching are completely wrong. I was just being too paranoid.

There have been no counter-claims, so I'm starting to believe Indigo's claim. This will be very interesting!

My current suspicion is boxman. You are really eager to vote for whoever is the accusee of the moment. I don't think you've ever voted for someone who someone else hadn't voted for.

You voted wicked after 2 votes, you voted Indigo once he started taking pressure, and you now voted Agar since popular opinion is against him. You rather look like a serial bandwagoneer.

It seems like you are trying to blend in to the game, and I think it is rather scummy.

therefore

Vote Boxman

[Wickedestjr]

I'm sorry what is breadcrumbing?

I believe Indigo Heron's role claim for now, but if he was lying, then I don't think that the cop should roleclaim, because we might learn something important about IH's investigation.

@Indigo Heron - During your inspection tonight, please investigate a player that you think is scummy, or else it would be a waste of time, and it would make you look bad.

Unvote

Boxman has been going with the flow quite a bit lately, which does seem kind of strange.

I don't really see any reason why AGar would be scummy, but he isn't helping to contribute much.

The two people who I am most suspicious of right now are Boxman and Papa Zito, and I have noticed that they have never voted for each other, and if they have, then it has never really been a very serious vote. So I think they are scum.

@Papa Zito - How suspicious of boxman are you?
@Boxman - How suspicious of Papa Zito are you?

[AGar]

Ok finally got to think out the whole Indigo Heron roleclaim situation.

I do think people are putting too much faith in his roleclaim off the bat. There are some really dangerous situations if we simply believe him on this affair.

I've come up with 7 (10 really, but I won't break down #3, because it doesn't change anything) possible scenarios.

1) Indigo Heron is the cop. He is hoping to draw a doctor's prot each night while investigating players. We know he's sane, so his rolechecks will come back positive.

-->1a) We have a doctor, which means a roleblocker as well. Scum can roleblock Indigo Heron every night, rendering him useless, while drawing a doctor's protection.

-->1b) We don't have a doctor. We lose our power role.

2) Indigo Heron is scum. He is also hoping to draw a doctor's prot each night, while pretending to investigate players. He and his scum buddy can then safely hit other players knowing the protection should be on him.

-->2a) We are in a situation with two mafia goons, one doctor and six townies. The doctor would theoretically protect Indigo Heron each night. With no role checks, he and other scum can hit townies freely. Since he knows who each townie is, he and his buddy can hit random players, and he can claim to have checked a townie each night, who "flipped townie" in his checks.

-->2b) We are in a situation with two mafia goons, one cop and six townies. The cop should immediately investigate Indigo Heron tonight and hope to live through the night. He should hold off on a roleclaim during this day phase, so as not to paint a target on his back.

-->2c) We are in a situation with one mafia goon, one mafia roleblocker, one cop and one doctor plus six townies. Doctor would protect Indigo. However, it would be unsafe to attempt to roleblock the cop, as that would set off an alarm for the cop that Indigo is scum.

-->2d) We are in a situation with one mafia goon, one mafia roleblocker and seven townies. See 2a, only no protection.

3) Indigo Heron is town. He could be trying to draw a doctor protection, or he could be trying to draw a hit from mafia.

My conclusion is that no matter what the situation, Indigo Heron's play was either:

1) Anti-town or
2) Scummy

There is no pro-town way about this, because if he IS the cop, then he has rendered his skills useless. If he is townie, he has either wasted a prot or gotten himself killed, neither of which are pro-town movements. If he has scum, then he probably knows we're in 2a or 2d (no way any scum would intelligently claim 2b or 2c).


-----

I think I'm dead though.

[AGar]

EBWOP:

3) Indigo Heron is town. He could be trying to draw a doctor protection, or he could be trying to draw a hit from mafia

-> Either of these situations doesn't HELP us, and no matter the layout, we gain nothing that I see from this.

[Indigo Heron]

I can summarise your entire post in one word (or 5, if you want to be technical): WIFOM. Your post seems important, but it really isn't. It feels as if you're out to get townie points by posting this 'long' message.

FoS: AGar

[Darkstrike_11]

Your post seems important, but it really isn't. It feels as if you're out to get townie points by posting this 'long' message.

QFT. Seeing as point 3 we can generally assume is garbage, all your post tells us is that either Indigo is scum or he is the doctor. Which we already knew. I'm starting to come around to the idea of agarscum.

By the way if Indigo is lying in his claim, and there is an actual cop out there, now would be the time to counter claim Indigo.

[Wickedestjr]

I actually thought AGar's analysis was a good one. It showed that, even if Indigo Heron is a cop, he is completely useless. He is basically a townie. If there is not a roleblocker, then IH will get to inspect, but there will not be a doctor, so he will die. If there is a roleblocker, then he doesn't get an inspection, but there will be a doc, so he survives. Each results in no information what so ever. I don't think that the doctor should save you if there is one. So IH could be lying or telling the truth about being the cop. If he is telling the truth, then he is basically a townie. If he is lying then he is mafia. So he is either no use to us, or mafia. Let us also keep in mind that he doesn't post a lot.

[Wickedestjr]

I do not think we should have the cop claim yet. He can claim whenever he wants to, but he can't make everybody forget his claim whenever he wants. If the cop reveals himself, then we will know that IH is mafia. If the cop keeps himself hidden for a little longer, he might have chance of finding the other mafia, which would allow us to win the game.

[Indigo Heron]

@Wickedestjr:

I actually thought AGar's analysis was a good one. It showed that, even if Indigo Heron is a cop, he is completely useless. He is basically a townie. If there is not a roleblocker, then IH will get to inspect, but there will not be a doctor, so he will die. If there is a roleblocker, then he doesn't get an inspection, but there will be a doc, so he survives. Each results in no information what so ever. I don't think that the doctor should save you if there is one. So IH could be lying or telling the truth about being the cop. If he is telling the truth, then he is basically a townie. If he is lying then he is mafia. So he is either no use to us, or mafia. Let us also keep in mind that he doesn't post a lot.

You just repeated the gist of AGar's post. Name something in this passage that is your idea. I also detect a hint of a Freudian slip (I think, but I need to confirm).

I also feel that Wickedestjr's attempts to get me lynched just strengthen my convictions that he's one of the scum pair. I'm shaky during the day, so why waste a night kill when you can lynch me in the day?

@Mod: During the night, what happens if the doctor successfully saves someone? Is the town told of who was targeted during the night

[Papa Zito]

@Papa Zito - How suspicious of boxman are you?

He's contributed just about the same amount as AGar, so he's high on my list.

BTW if I'm one of your top suspects, why not post a case on me and see what the rest of the town thinks?

[tracker]

And the fifth votecount:

tracker(1): Indigo Heron

Wickedestjr(1): Mitey Mouse

Agar(1): Papa Zito

Popo

Zito(1): Wickedstjr

Indigo Heron (1): Darkstrike

[Darkstrike_11]

tracker stop trying to distract us, nobody cares about that running gag. Apart from Pope Zit of course :p

and wicked, being of no use to us is NO reason to lynch a cop! I know you're trying to say that there's no huge benefit to keeping him alive, but that's just wrong. It's our JOB to keep town alive. And it's increasingly looking like Indigo's claim was kosher. I, for one, am not going to lynch a claimed cop on the basis that he wouldn't be a help to us. Would you lynch someone on the basis that they don't help you because they're vanilla and have no power role? no.

[tracker]

It consists of four variations, chosen at random (the name comes from the binary expression of these four options, similar to C9):
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Doctor, 5 Townies.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 7 Townies.
2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 6 Townies.
2 Mafia Goons, 1 Doctor, 6 Townies.

thanks papa for putting this right here and at hand

agar, as for point two the scum wouldn't know which situation was correct in 2a or 2b, and 2c or 2d essentially a scum here would have just took a 50-50 chance to try and avert suspicion, what would a scum have to lose in this position? if there is a cop the cop counterclaims and the scum take a power role with them. if there isn't a cop then the scum is now believed to be the cop and can accuse townies safely while (possibly) wasting a doc's protection.

i find myself agreeing with agar on this and no matter what the situation shouldn't indigo be lynched? it essentially breaks down to what agar said

A) he's the cop but isn't contrubiting to the game and just got himself neutralized

B) he's scum who (appears to have) succesfully fakeclaimed cop,

C)he's vanilla town and this would be under LAL rule right?

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... _All_Liars

hmm i went and looked up WIFOM and followed a couple of links and stumbled across this

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... ding_Mafia

Day 1 Mafia errors

If a mafia is about to be lynched, they often use Wine In Front Of Me. Don't, it's too easy to screw it up and it's even more likely that you already screwed it up.

Indigo would you care to change your defense?

Papa Zito, do you intend to counter-claim me?

Hmm. This question is puzzling.

You imply that I am lying. Normally, a contested hard claim is followed by a counter-claim in the event that the hard claim is in doubt (in my experience, any claim that isn't immediately contested, especially in Newbie games, results in you being lynched, apparently, the pro-town roles can't lay low a little longer and be incognito until it is necessary).

I'm puzzled by your question, and that it was directed at me. To me your question implies that you think I'm the real cop and you want me to counter to verify this. I can't think of another reason why you'd ask it, and I can't think of a town reason for it either. I wanted to think on it more before I brought it up in the thread tho.

indigo, you mean this? this really doesn't clear anything up and the question still stands, why did you add that last part in there?

vote: Indigo Heron

what does this put him at?

if you were a new player i'd write off anti-town behavior as that but as an SE i think that you'd know enough to keep your play from being anti-town, therefore your most likely a scum trying to buy off on a power role.

BTW if I'm one of your top suspects, why not post a case on me and see what the rest of the town thinks?

papa, could you present your case on agar please?

list vs

nolist

summaries

in order to contribute to the town i think we need to let people know(to a point) where our suspicions lie,

through summaries

but if we reveal to much then the scum could take that and run with it and try to use it to get a townie lynched,

just don't make an ordered list

so i'm

trying to balance it out

going to use summaries of my opinions on other people

tracker stop trying to distract us, nobody cares about that running gag. Apart from Pope Zit of course :p

What? running gag? i just added that in for the mod, then indigo asked me to show it to him so i did, how is this distracting from the game?

@dark, we can't be certain that indigo is the cop, i do believe that it is more likely that indigo is scum and we don't have a cop, (BTW if there is a cop, they should come out, that would prove Indigo as scum and by all reasoning isn't any town role a good trade for a scum in this set-up?)

kosher?

where's thesp at?

[Darkstrike_11]

lol sorry, it's just the mod frequently misspells papa zito's name, I think he meant to do it as a joke the last couple of times. I thought that Indigo was being sarcastic in asking for it, I know I certainly was in my last post.

Your vote is currently the only one on Indigo.

I completely disagree with what you say. You said "shouldn't he be lynched anyway?" er NO! even if he is the cop, we shouldn't lynch him in the 50% chance that he is scum! That is the same situation as lynching a townie because he might be scum.

I could vote for you using the terms you used. I could say, well Tracker could be scum pretending to be town. Also, if he is town then he has no night role, so he is "neutralised". Therefore we should lynch him just in case. That is really bad logic.

If there is a chance, we should lynch scum tonight. Lynching a claimed cop is exactly what the scum would want! Seeing as the scum know if Indigo is telling the truth or not, they will kill him tonight if he is not one of them. It's too much of a risk for them NOT to NK a claimed cop.

Also since the claim Indigo has posted more, more than you for one, so that argument can't really be used insofar as "lynching him because he wont help us anyway" since he is now more active.

Also, I say 50% because the third option is a no go. There is no way a townie with half a brain would fake claim to save his own skin and lose the game for the town. It's a faux pas and I know an experienced player like Indigo wouldn't do it.

I do agree with the call for Thesp. Where are our experienced players? Thesp and Mitey, if you can hear us, please come to our aid

[Papa Zito]

BTW if I'm one of your top suspects, why not post a case on me and see what the rest of the town thinks?

papa, could you present your case on agar please?

My case on AGar is that he hasn't done a damn thing to help the town, and my belief is that anti-town elements should always be eliminated. His big post earlier is a great example of what scum like to do. He put out a bunch of information, and he analyzed the situation at hand, but did he ever come to a conclusion on Indigo's alignment? No. Has he ever come to a conclusion on anyone's alignment? No, except his OMGUS on me (which he never denied). Has he ever done any scumhunting in an effort to help the town win? No.

Your analysis of the Indigo-is-scum scenario is correct. Claiming cop is the correct play for scum in Indigo's position.

Keep in mind that the stuff in the wiki is just a guide, and shouldn't always be followed. Though I'm a proponent of LAL.

[Wickedestjr]

I never said I wanted to lynch Indigo Heron. If I did, wouldn't I be voting him. I was just explaining how I thought IH's cop role would not help us at all, and that if Indigo Heron starts acting really suspiciously then we should give him a few votes, because we wouldn't have much to lose. But I am all for keeping him in the game another day at least.

[Indigo Heron]

wiki wrote:
Day 1 Mafia errors

If a mafia is about to be lynched, they often use Wine In Front Of Me. Don't, it's too easy to screw it up and it's even more likely that you already screwed it up.


Indigo would you care to change your defense?

Your analysis of the Indigo-is-scum scenario is correct. Claiming cop is the correct play for scum in Indigo's position.

Keep in mind that the stuff in the wiki is just a guide, and shouldn't always be followed. Though I'm a proponent of LAL.

QFT. The theory is there to help you, but it shouldn't define the way you play the game. I can't think of a better quote for this then the Chinese saying "Learn the Way, then find your own Way."

Before, playing anti-Town appeals to me. It's unorthodox, and uproots the dearly held tradition of same old stale 'follow-the-leader'-esque games. I've also seen some examples of exemplary anti-Town play for the first few days to avoid scum's attention somewhere around the forum (and even led people to believe that they are so anti-Town, they couldn't possibly be scummy - so it all comes back to WIFOM), but I've forgotten exactly where.

Note: What I said above applies to both quotes.

[Indigo Heron]

I never said I wanted to lynch Indigo Heron. If I did, wouldn't I be voting him. I was just explaining how I thought IH's cop role would not help us at all, and that if Indigo Heron starts acting really suspiciously then we should give him a few votes, because we wouldn't have much to lose. But I am all for keeping him in the game another day at least.

The problem with the above post is that you did intend to lynch me. You voted for me to make a dusk appointment with the gallows, remember?

Also, are you trying to seem casual about lynching me?

Thank you for your support, but I don't see myself lasting beyond Night 1.

[tracker]

dark, what i meant he hasn't so far, and it was him that admitted to being anti-town, was it not?

ok thanks papa, as for your case on agar i agree with you there, lynching people who don't contribute is a good way to make everyone contribute more.

i'm waiting for some responces from the more expeirenced players before i move my vote around

[Indigo Heron]

tracker, being anti-town doesn't necessarily mean that you're scum, even for Newbie games.

[Khelvaster]

And the sixth votecount:

tracker(1): Indigo Heron

Wickedestjr(1): Mitey Mouse

Agar(2): Thesp, Papa Zito

Papa Ziti(1): Agar

Indigo Heron (4): Darkstrike, Boxman, Wickedstjr, Tracker

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. The deadling for day 1 is 11:59 P.M. June 21 EST.

[Indigo Heron]

Khelvaster, I unvoted from tracker a long time ago.