Mini #764: Notre Dame Mafia, Game Over

[charter]

kast, I no longer have any interest in discussing masscardclaim. I don't believe it can serve to help town anymore.

[Kast]

@Budja-
-I agree that scum probably considered mass card claims. I disagree with the implication that scum planning for a mass card claim can make it completely ineffective as a strategy.

-I acknowledge that my analysis had the *potential* to reduce the effectiveness of a mass card claim. I disagree that this potential was very large or that it significantly chances the value of a mass card claim to the town.

Nobody has even attempted to show the opposite to this.

-I don't see the value in a partial card claim.

Take for instance Sanctuary cards. If everyone who started with a Sanctuary card claimed, and we followed the cards to the final destination, the town has learned more information in quantity than the scum. But this information greatly helps scum in night kill targeting, but does not help townies very much. You can take this as one example of the town gaining more information overall, but scum benefiting more.

In particular, I don't see the value in plague claiming. A plague card does not necessarily imply that the player is scum. Also, knowing where townie passed plague cards end up does not help the town with providing answers against those plague cards.

In the event that we see several plagues in effect, I guess there is a chance that we can eliminate certain players from the pool of people who had access to a plague card, but once again, if scum lie about first pick plague cards, we may be setting ourselves up for false-positive identification of scum.

-Simple example:
Consider a newbie game with 1 cop, 1 doctor, 1 mafia goon, 1 mafia roleblocker, and 5 vanilla townies.

Mafia begin the game with information that there is is 1 doctor and 1 cop, or 0 power role townies.
Vanilla townies begins the game with information that there may be 1 doctor and two goons; 1 cop and two goons; 1 doctor, 1 cop, 1 goon, and 1 roleblocker; or 0 power role townies, 1 goon, and 1 roleblocker.
Cop begins the game with information that there may be 1 cop and two goons; or 1 doctor, 1 cop, 1 goon, and 1 roleblocker.
Doctor begins the game with information that there may be 1 doctor and two goons; or 1 doctor, 1 cop, 1 goon, and 1 roleblocker.

If the town chose to engage in a day 1 mass claim, they would learn that there is both a doctor and a cop, as well as that there is one mafia roleblocker. They would also learn the identities of the doctor and cop and could fairly safely eliminate them from the lynch pool.
Mafia learn much less, only the identities of that cop and doctor. However, mafia would be much better able to make use of this information than townies, and can both kill the doctor, and kill or block the cop. This claim gives the town more information by quantity, but puts them in a much worse situation than before.

-You can apply this to most closed setup games and some open setup games as well and even consider different levels of completeness for early universal claiming. Townies start off knowing much less than mafia. Due to this, almost every early universal claim gives the town more information than it gives to scum. However, most of these games will become much harder for the town to win after the claim and as a result of the claim, which is why early day claims like this are not widely used.

[Budja]

But we are claiming cards not people. I don't think your explanation works here.

[Kast]

@Charter-
Okay, so instead of discussing or considering that you may be mistaken, you are going to cut off further discussion.

In ending discussion of "masscardclaim", you are also ending discussion of your vote and reasons behind it. Does this mean you do not intend to move your vote?

[charter]

Oh no, I realize that with any form of massclaim, there is the potential to give scum a lot of info. However, regardless of information you gain through an actual massclaim (which can be great), I find the opportunity to catch scum through their reactions to massclaim can be very effective. I've done it before, and I see no reason it won't work again.

As far as my vote, it's serious, but obviously my "lynch kast in seven posts" was not, but now scumhunting will be the determining factor in where it goes. I've already narrowed scum down to about 8 people. Zwet and you are at the peak on that list.

[charter]

To clarify on how massclaim could have cleared townies, since this is now blown out of the water, anyone that took the doctor round one, I would say is town. It's completely useless to scum, and very potent in the hands of town.

[Kast]

@Budja-
A few points:
-The point is valid regardless of cards or players; the town can gain more information from a claim without necessarily gaining greater benefits than the scum.

-The example using the "Sanctuary" card is an example using cards.

-Given many potential setups for our current game, scum could easily benefit from avoiding sanctuaries and apothecaries, as well as killing 1/2 cops before they can set off their investigations.

-Creating a more similar example than the newbie game:
Assume there is a game with 12 players whose roles are all selected from a list of different of the Jack-of-all trades roles. For sake of argument, pretend there are 6 roles as follows:
Jack A:
-Doctor
Jack B:
-Nightkill
Jack C:
-Cop
-Bulletproof
Jack D:
-Tracker
-Roleblock
Jack E:
-Doctor
-Roleblock
Jack F:
-Bulletproof
-Nightkill

In addition to whatever powers they receive from their randomly selected Jack-of-all-trades roles, the mafia are given a team night kill every night with the option of a one time use enhanced night kill which is unblockable, and undetectable, and unpreventable.

The mafia begin with information about all of their own powers. Each townie only knows his own power. There is an equal chance for each player to be each role (ie. each role is selected independently of all others and the game could be entirely composed of night killers).

Generating a random sequence (you don't have to believe it is random...it isn't really important) gives:
Mafia:
D, C, A
Townies:
A, A, E, E, F, B, A, C, A

Initially, mafia know about 6 of the powers out of the 22.
Initially, each townie only knows about his 2 (or 1) out of the 22.

Any early mass claim will give the town much more information than it will give scum (in a similar manner to our current game).

It will allow scum to kill dangerous investigative roles and plan around protections. In this example, they could pretty safely use their enhanced kill on the cop and later off kill trackers.

@Charter-
Okay. I don't feel that you have addressed the issue adequately and I don't think your attitude about it is very pro-town.

I agree that doctor first round is pretty useless to scum, but that also makes it a good false claim if scum need or want to false claim something.

[Kinetic]

I took Plague First, 1/4th NK Second, and Rat third. Discuss.

[Budja]

As someone who supported a massclaim, thats a pretty scummy set of cards .

Why did you take the plague?

[Kinetic]

As someone who supported a massclaim, thats a pretty scummy set of cards .

Why did you take the plague?

It's an AMAZINGLY scummy set of cards, looking at it in the stupid way that Kast has.

First, I wanted a mass claim because I knew most of the town might not realize the important of some cards.

Such as: If you pass a 1/4 NK, you are a COMPLETE AND UTTER ANTI-TOWN IDIOT. Phew. Got that off my chest. Scum can only get a total of 3 1/4s from their own draw. Thus in order for them to NEVER get an additional NK from those cards all town has to do is choose cards defensively first. I was passed the 1/4th NK (and the Rat), two AMAZING scum cards, and because of that I feel the person passing them to me (KidIcarus) is most likely town because of it.

I chose the 1/4th kill so I could burn it and scum cannot use it.

I chose plague for the same reason. I drew Plague, Mimic and Apothacary. I could have taken Apoth, used it on myself, and been immune to plague all game. Instead, I took the plague and made sure no one else could use it.

My second set was Mimic/ 1/4th NK. Seriously, I could have pulled a Plague/Mimic combo off the first two night phases if I was scum. I chose the NK to both prevent scum from getting it (in case the person after me was scum) and to burn it.

My third card was Rat. Which, is worst than 1/4th NK, and will most likely be my discarded card.

I supported mass claim because I wanted to look at exactly what people drew and I wanted them to explain WHY they drew such cards. The fact is Kast FUCKED a lot of that up by explaining PERFECT SCUM STRATEGY to the scum and the town. I wanted to scum hunt. I knew everything he stated already, but I was keeping it to myself so that I could see if anyone slipped and help use that to determine their alignment.

Was it full-proof, absolutely going to catch every scum. No, I never said it was.

Could it have? Yes.

Will it now? No.

Also, the main reason I wanted mass claim was so that people were forced to stick with the claim in the mid-late game when people were drawing the last of their cards. If no one claimed their plague and all of a sudden 3 plague victims died, that would be quite suspicious.

The fact remains, Kast completely blew it. Completely.

He did EXACTLY what scum should do, and he warned his scum buddies to what might happen.

I still want to go forth with the Mass Claim so that I can tack people to their claims for later, but I doubt it will catch any scum now. Once that is done, I plan I pushing for Kast's lynch.

He is either scum or an incredibly idiotic townie. Either way, I don't mind lynching him to find out which at this point.

[Budja]

Considering I am after you, I can confirm you are not lying about the cards you passed.

@Kinetic, what do you think of this -

It will allow scum to kill dangerous investigative roles and plan around protections.

Kast seems to be making a valid point here.

[Kinetic]

Considering I am after you, I can confirm you are not lying about the cards you passed.

@Kinetic, what do you think of this -

It will allow scum to kill dangerous investigative roles and plan around protections.

Kast seems to be making a valid point here.

Based on perfect card drawing, the cop cards are virtually useless and are extremely low on the totem poll for any townie to grab. It sucks, but that is the way of it.

As for the protections, unless you decided we also must claim who we are protecting, it isn't going to do that. Since this isn't a doctor where they can protect every night, killing someone on the night they use their protection is at best idiotic and at worst counterproductive.

Actually, originally I was not going to mention this, however it might help our players for protections:

The people who should MOST likely gain protections from players who have them now is those who have not drawn their protection cards yet. These are the players more likely to draw them and use them in the late game when it matters.

Scum's best strategy is to eliminate players who haven't yet drawn cards which are good for town, and keep players who have cards which are good for scum left to draw.

By protecting the players with good draws left we force the scum to kill less optimal players and therefore gain an advantage.

[KidIcarus]

I guess it doesn't need to be said, but I confirm Kinetic's cards.

I support a mass-claim as well. Kast should go first.

[Kinetic]

Second Draft
-----
1/4-Shot Nightkill
1-Shot Rat
1-Shot Plague
1-Shot Doctor
1-Shot Sanctuary
1-Shot Apothecary
1-Shot Mimic
1-Shot Double
1/2-Shot Cop Card

Third Draft
1/4-Shot Nightkill
1-Shot Rat
1-Shot Sanctuary
1-Shot Doctor
1/2-Shot Cop Card
1-Shot Mimic
1-Shot Apothecary
1-Shot Double
1-Shot Plague


For every townie this should be your draft priority list. I'm giving you this so your second and third drafts won't be idiotic.


Second Draft
Here is why:
If you are townie you CANNOT pass a 1/4th NK. It means that the Scum get a NK for free. During Day 1 drafting Plague first is the best bet because it is much more likely for Plague to strike a hit in the early game than in the end game. However, by the second draft there will already be some Apothacaries around, significantly limiting the likelihood of a Plague on Night 5/6 (which is the earliest a plague will hit from the second draft. Due to the delay on Plague, Rat is even better than it in the second draft. (In the first Draft Plague was better than Rat though)

Rat takes second, and some people might wonder why its ahead of Doctor. On the second draft Rat is such a powerful card and directly counters Doctor and Sanc. If you choose Doctor over Rat, and you pass the Rat to a scum, you're making a bad choice. The scum will just use the Rat to bypass the Doctor card you took. The scum cannot use the doctor card, its useless for them, but you giving them a Rat card could stop your doctor or someone elses Sanc.

The two safety cards are next, and are by far the best town cards in the game. If you pull one of these and don't need to draft defensively and also can pull a double or mimic you're golden. And Ideal draft would be a Double/Mimic, Sand/Doc, and a .25NK/Rat to discard.

Apoth is next. It is sort of the little safety card that could. If you have it, use it, either on yourself or a townie as you see fit.

Double/Mimic should only be drawn depending on your other drafts and should never be your first draft. Mimic beats double because it could technically be a good first draft if you've already used a doc, sanc, or apoth. Otherwise its a wasted card. Again, Double is the same way, but you need to draft one of those three cards for it to be useful, a much harder job.

1/2 cop is last for multiple reasons. One, scum have no use for this card, so its not a bad card to send to them. Two, because you need two of them, you need to understand that its OK to pass this card. If you can draft a 1/2 Cop with your last pick, and play it (with a good ditch card, like Rat), it could set you up for a good third draft.

Third Draft:
You'll notice several cards have changed.

1/4 NK and Rat are still by and far the best early drafts for town for purely defensive purposes.

Doc/Sanc move up a spot. Personally I feel Sanc starts to be stronger for townies late game than Doc, but to each his own.

1/2 Cop makes a jump, but you should only draft this if you've already drafted a 1/2 Cop and used it. A late game cop isn't bad, but generally protections are still better (since its difficult to trust a late game cop).

Mimic gains strength in the late game, especially if you've played a Doc or Sanc. If you have, draw a Mimic as if it was a Doc or Sanc at this point.

Apoth drops below Cop mainly because by this point plague is not a strong card, thus its counter isn't very strong either. Its not a bad draw if you're forced into it, but I doubt I'd take it.

Double is virtually useless at this point. Seeing as the earliest you'll be able to double a card is Night six from the third draft.

Plague is terribad for everyone. Even if you drew the plague and used it Night 5, it wouldn't take effect until Night 7. The game most likely will be over by then, and if it isn't, it will end in a town loss day 7 anyway.

[AceMarksman]

I could go for a plague claim or a 1/2 cop claim. Anyone have any reason why this shouldn't happen?

[Albert B. Rampage]

Plague yes, cop no.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I guess it doesn't need to be said, but I confirm Kinetic's cards.

I support a mass-claim as well. Kast should go first.

FOS

[AceMarksman]

I disagree with your taking of the 1/4 nightkill, as that one person will have to have used it FOUR TIMES in order to gain the extra night kill.

Anyone else have any opinion on claiming plague?

[Slicey]

I'm still here, lots of long posts, will read when I get the chance.

[Budja]

@Ace, read more carefully, the mafia collect it together as a group. I agree with Kinetic that the mafia should not ever be passed this card.

Anyone else have any opinion on claiming plague?

This.

[zwetschenwasser]

The lying about card passings is pure WIFOM. I don't even know why people are still considering it. I like Kinetic's analysis, though.

[AceMarksman]

Ace, read more carefully, the mafia collect it together as a group. I agree with Kinetic that the mafia should not ever be passed this card.

o.O oh shit.

[zwetschenwasser]

^scumslip found

[AceMarksman]

No, I passed a 1/4 night kill without reading the rules closer.

[Budja]

I was thinking along the lines of zwet but this makes sense.

Could Albert confirm this please?