Mini 743: Sanity Ensues - Over!

[Green Crayons]

A no-lynch would led us to the same spot we are now, with the possibility of having more information. You're basing your suspicious in me wanting so hard for a no-lynch, but, as I said before, does a no-lynch guarantee an instant town lose? No. It doesn't. It gives us the chance of getting more information. How that can be scummy?

We have no idea what position a no lynch will put us in tomorrow - even assuming there

is

a tomorrow with a no lynch. I don't understand why you want the town to handicap ourselves so much that we're relyng upon our power roles to win us the game - power roles which in and of themselves cannot be wholly trusted (sanity issues, scumbags lying) and whose results may give a false read (godfather immunity). I don't know what power the mafia has - maybe they can neglect to do a kill to double role block. Maybe they can neglect to roleblock to do a double kill as a one time deal. Maybe the whole mafia is investigation immune.

I

don't know. Nobody from the town would know. Your blind faith in the mafia not having some "slightly bastard" advantage makes me worry because only two groups of people know of what the mafia is and is not capable: the moderator and the scumbags.

You're asking the us to give up the security of being able to lynch scum today based off of our suspicions and opinions for the hope that tomorrow we aren't completely screwed over. Basically: Forgo the time-honored, proven method of catching scum and hanging them high just so we may have the potential to rely on more sketchy power role results.

Wow, where can I sign up for this epicfail?

[Artem]

Now, something is making me feel that either GC or Artem are scum. They're trying to much to make a lynch, out-ruling the possibility of a no-lynch when it leads us to a situation similar to what we are now. Both of them are taking the worst case scenario, while ignoring the good possibilities.

If one of us is scum, the other is town, and we're both pushing for a lynch then how can you argue that pushing for a lynch is a scummy thing to do? By your own logic, it's a null-tell.

Besides, what I said specifically is that no-lynch is bad option because we've already mass claimed. If we hadn't, no-lynch would have looked better.

Tell me what benefit we would gain from no-lynching. Please. A 100%, guaranteed, benefit. I'd really like to see it.

One thing you are guaranteed 100% (ok, assuming no successful doc blocks) is another cardflip. This means that townies have to consider one less person. That's it. That's the only town advantage.

Any pro-no-lynch argument that is based on power roles is dumb, as already pointed out. Moreover, no-lynch only makes sense if the difference between the number of townies and the number of scum is even. For example, a no-lynch makes sense in a 1 scum + 3 townies scenario, but not in a 1 scum + 4 townies.

I originally said that we have at most two mafia because we're still playing the game with 6 people. However, Charrat brought up a good point: the mafia is not guaranteed a win until all the docs are dead. That means that we may be potentially dealing with 3 mafia. If that's the case, we have to lynch correctly AND protect correctly to win.

(Of course, the mafia may be declared victorious if they make up 50% or more of the population. It all depends on what their PM says.)

In either case, no lynch is bad for us right now. Besides, I don't think I'm having that much trouble deciding who to lynch.

I don't think the mafia needs advice, Azhrei. Do you think it's good idea to give advice like that to your enemies? Hmmm... Suspicious... Oh, if anyone who said that I was congratulation the mafia with post 400, then Azhrei's words should look really scummy. Don't they?

If Azhrei is sharing information with his enemies, the mafia, doesn't that make him town?

[Azhrei]

Artem, I see your point there, but it's really not that great an advantage, is it? And that wasn't your question to answer

(I am talking about my advantage question)

And I'd say that we most likely have 2 scum, it just doesn't make sense to have 3 scum to me. I really have to agree with all those saying that a no-lynch is crap, because it really is.

And Shinn, why is pointing out something so blindingly obvious that even the stupidest scum in the world could figure it out scummy? Am I meant to not say things in our discussion just because they benefit the scum? hell, if I was scum, then I wouldn't be pointing out the flaws in a no-lynch, I'd be promoting it.

To be honest, I'm almost happy with voting you. Almost. I'd like to see your response to these last few posts, and then I'll decide.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Ok, you have given your reasons, I've given mine. It seems that you think that a lynch will benefit the town the most, so let's go with that option. Most people say that either GC or me are scum, so let's make a simple census on the matter.

How many of you think GC is scum? How many of you think I'm scum?

I, myself, think that neither of us is scum. Yeah, we both have argued a lot to defend what we think it's the best option, but in truth, I don't feel GC is scum.

Shin is scum - 0
GC is scum - 0
Neither is scum - 1
Both of them are scum - 0

[springlullaby]

The votecount is blank.

Mod note to give you something to talk about: there exist specific names for doctors of differing sanities. Of course I may be screwing with you yet. Or not.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Now, that's helpful...

[Charrat]

I have to agree with GC, a no-lynch is crap. It's most likely not gonna help us, because I have said earlier, if they have a roleblocker, they'll roleblock CG or shinn (whoever is innocent) and kill Zero. That way, we get no new 'real' results, and just one botched result. Or, alternatively, if they roleblock the real doc, then they kill a real cop. Whatever happens, we'll lose someone, and scum will likely be no closer to being outed, depending on the the cop they kill.

It feels kind of foolish to take this speculation any further. We can't be sure what is going to happen if we no-lynch, because we don't know what capabilities the mafia have (although I doubt they have anything as extreme of GC has suggested, like a double RB or double kill ability, since this is supposed to be a normal-type game, but its not impossible), we don't know if we have only sane doctors or not (a weak doctor could get himself killed and end the game), and we don't know where the cards will fall. But we can't be absolutely sure that it would be a completely good or a completely bad move for the town.

For example, if the scum were to kill Zero, and he is indeed the paranoid cop, then we have no useful results. If they kill shinn, and she is the paranoid cop, same thing happens. If they kill GC (a very silly move heir part, if he is a cop) then we should be able to guarantee one scum, and his sanity wil be sane or insane.

Ultimately, a no-lynch will just allow the scum to win easier.

You shouldn't be so absolute, we can't predict with any precision how the night will turn out, and what sort of situation we will be in the next day. All we can be sure of is the following:
1. Maybe one less town player, maybe not, depending on how the different night actions line up.
2. We will have more information, but we don't know whether or not that information will be helpful. It could be worthless or it could be absolutely decisive. I am leaning towards the former, but again, its not clear.
3. We may have a smaller pool of players to determine who is scum on Day 4, so that would increase the chances of getting scum then and the next day, if we choose right D4.

Hey, a thought just popped into my head. We've had people wonder if we have a godfather, right? Say we lynch Shinn, and she's the godfather, then we'll have Charrat's head on a platter, now won't we? If I remember correctly, it's Charrat and Shinn who have suggested a no-lynch, and I honestly find Charrat much scummier than Artem. It makes more sense to me that way.

That is a selective memory there I think. Artem considered the no-lynch option in post 455, and said that he felt it might be a good option if we wanted to play it safe.

I think your position on the no-lynch is just as easy to see as scummy as Shinn's position. If Shinn is scum, then he has incentive to promote no-lynch if he thinks he will be lynched, although he has greater incentive to lynch a townie over no one. If you are scum, then you have incentive to promote lynching if you think a townie will be lynched. On the other hand, your position is just as easy to see as town as Shinn's position. If Shinn is town, then he has incentive to promote no-lynch if he genuinely believes it will benefit the town. If you are town, then you have incentive to promote lynching if you think a mafia player will be lynched. Ultimately, its a null-tell.

I am not trying to defend Shinn here. As I have said before, I am certain that either Shinn or GC is scum, and I am leaning towards Shinn at the moment. But I think your line of reasoning here is flawed.

How many of you think GC is scum? How many of you think I'm scum?

I am leaning towards you over GC, but I wouldn't say that I think you are scum with any certainly. You need a 5th option, "Either is scum."

The votecount is blank.

Mod note to give you something to talk about: there exist specific names for doctors of differing sanities. Of course I may be screwing with you yet. Or not.

Evil mod.

We haven't heard much from Zero lately. Thats a little unsettling for me, seeing he seems to be the player that most people think is town. Wouldn't it be crazy if he was scum and has lied about all his investigations.

[Zer0ph34r]

Okay, I'm back. Sorry for the absence. I'm very hesitant to vote because I'm afraid that we will lynch a townie or a cop or whatever again. And quite frankly, I don't really suspect anyone that much. The person I find most suspicious is green_crayons and that's only because I just don't like him. So, can someone start some kind of topic to get info? And we pretty much have to vote, or else we will basically have a guaranteed loss.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

^How's that? If we don't vote, we don't lose immediately.

[Green Crayons]

Well, I'm certainly not in this to win a popularity contest.

I'm currently doing a reread of Charrat since I stand by my previous suggestion of us lynching either Charrat, Shinn or myself.

[springlullaby]

Sensing a lull looming, a friendly reminder from your mod that this game has a 42hours activity requirement - so get posting and don't make me prod your derrières, you are doing quite well!

Accompanied by two complimentary info spots:

1. Since it is not specified in the rule, I'm clarifying here that a

perfectly blank

votecount at the end of the day leads to nolynch.

2. If a player with a night action miss the night deadline, their action is

forfeit

.

[Azhrei]

Mod, could you clarify on what you mean by no. 1? I don't get it.

Also, I think I should probably reread Charrat as well. Oh, and i checked Charrat, you are right, Artem did consider a no-lynch. my bad. However, he hasn't been pushing it like Shinn. Or you, for that matter.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

I still think that it's strange that you think that pushing a no-lynch is scum. As I said before, a no-lynch won't get us an immediate lose. For that matter, is just another approach to out problem. So, even thought I won't be pushing it anymore, I won't just let pass comments like that, because they just reflect what you think, not a fact.

[Charrat]

Mod, could you clarify on what you mean by no. 1? I don't get it.

It sounds to me that someone is going to have to bite the bullet and vote before the end of the RL day or else the game day will end in a no lynch, whether the town likes it or not. If it seems that no one is going to vote before then, I'll be sure to place a vote so that the day does not end abruptly. I don't want the day to end in a no lynch unless the majority of the town agrees that it is the best path to follow, and that doesn't seem to be the case.

Also, I think I should probably reread Charrat as well. Oh, and i checked Charrat, you are right, Artem did consider a no-lynch. my bad. However, he hasn't been pushing it like Shinn. Or you, for that matter.

I think the no-lynch idea has merit, and the more I contemplate what the result could be, the better the idea seems. But, of course, the goal today should be first to lynch scum, because lynching scum is definately better than a no lynch. (obviously )

[Azhrei]

I still think that it's strange that you think that pushing a no-lynch is scum. As I said before, a no-lynch won't get us an immediate lose. For that matter, is just another approach to out problem. So, even thought I won't be pushing it anymore, I won't just let pass comments like that, because they just reflect what you think, not a fact.

Most of what I say flects what I think, not fact

Mod, could you clarify on what you mean by no. 1? I don't get it.

It sounds to me that someone is going to have to bite the bullet and vote before the end of the RL day or else the game day will end in a no lynch, whether the town likes it or not. If it seems that no one is going to vote before then, I'll be sure to place a vote so that the day does not end abruptly. I don't want the day to end in a no lynch unless the majority of the town agrees that it is the best path to follow, and that doesn't seem to be the case.

This could be a problem if you're right...

Also, I think I should probably reread Charrat as well. Oh, and i checked Charrat, you are right, Artem did consider a no-lynch. my bad. However, he hasn't been pushing it like Shinn. Or you, for that matter.

I think the no-lynch idea has merit, and the more I contemplate what the result could be, the better the idea seems. But, of course, the goal today should be first to lynch scum, because lynching scum is definately better than a no lynch. (obviously )

The more I contemplate a no-lynch, the more it seems like a bad idea However, I'm happy that you acknoweledge that you think lynching scum is better than a no-lynch.


For today, I think our lynch should definitely be GC or Shinn. At the moment, I consider Shinn to be the more likely to be scum.

[Green Crayons]

A vote needed prior to the end of a physical 24 period does not make sense, is rather arbitrary, and makes the mod an active player in the game (as opposed to a passive observer/arbitrator).

It makes most sense if spring meant it by the end of the game day. If you check the rules, there is nothing covering if there hasn't been a single vote cast before the end of the game day. Her reminder simply covers up this gap.

[Charrat]

A vote needed prior to the end of a physical 24 period does not make sense, is rather arbitrary, and makes the mod an active player in the game (as opposed to a passive observer/arbitrator).

It makes most sense if spring meant it by the end of the game day. If you check the rules, there is nothing covering if there hasn't been a single vote cast before the end of the game day. Her reminder simply covers up this gap.

Hrm, yeah, after going over the rules, that makes more sense.

[Zer0ph34r]

Yeah, shinnen, you're right. I made a mistake in counting how many people would be left, but still, at this point, as risky as it is, I still think a lynch would be best.

[springlullaby]

Yes, if the votecount is blank at the end of any given day, no-lynch occurs, and the game moves into night.

Dealine: March the 22nd

[Azhrei]

Ahk, thanks spring. Also, what timezone are you using for the deadline?

[Shinnen_no_Me]

So, with the deadline so close, what are we going to do?

[Zer0ph34r]

Well, I'm gonna have to vote, it's a risky one, but I'm going to

vote: Shinnen_no_Me

If you're wondering why, which I hope you are, it's simply because I suspect hardly anyone, but shinnen just seems to have this sort of slyness in his wording/phrasing.

[Azhrei]

I'm gonna not vote until tonight, as it is the 21st today, and I still don't know what timezone spring is using. If anything comes up in that time, then I'll reconsider who I'll vote for.

Any last minute things to say everyone?

[Azhrei]

Well, as nobody has anything more to add...

Vote: Shinnen_No_me

I hope to god you are scum, and that myslef (and Zero) haven't just made a massive screwup.

[Green Crayons]

I finished up my Charrat read through. I'm sort of on the fence about how I feel about him. He hasn't done anything too particularly scummy, but I think coupled with his lack of actually doing anything too particularly townish makes me worried.


Going to do a read of Shinn real quick.