Mini 743: Sanity Ensues - Over!

[Zer0ph34r]

Finding him suspicious over the block was not why, it was the fact that I already suspected him and found out no info that could've helped me a little in what his true role is.

[Azhrei]

Lots of very interesting reading!

Now, going along the line of 3 cops, and knowing alex was Naive, I'd guess we'd have a naive, a paranoid, and a sane/insane. Definitely not an insane and a sane though.

Why not an insane and a sane?

Well, first off, there's no evidence from the claims to suggest that, and then I just prefer that sort of setup It makes more sense to me.

I'd also guess that the doctors are just normal, as the mod has said she revealed sanities upon death.

I can't remember exactly what spring said, but is it possible that he was asked specifically about cops, or did he imply that all sanities would be revealed? I find it hard to imagine that we have 2 or 3 doctors in this game and they are proper doctors, that might be pretty unbalanced for the mafia.

From memory, I believe she said that sanities were revealed, and didn't specify that it was only cops. I'll try and find the post later. Also, perhaps Zee was a normal doc, and you/Artem (whichever one is actually a doc, 'cos i'm 99% sure one of you is lying) is some sort of funky sanity? Hard to guess, but for now I'm assuming both docs are normal, as it really doesn't affect us too much lynch-wise.

(snip)
3. My strongest suspicion is that Shinn or GC are scum. GC found that Shinn was innocent and I was guilty. I know my alignment is town, so that eliminates the possibilty that GC is sane. He can't be paranoid or naive, so he must be insane. That means Shinn is scum, and would make Zero paranoid or insane. But, on the other hand, GC could be scum, and his investigations are a lie. In other words, I don't know which is which. Thats how I see things from my perspective right now.

I agree with your sentiment on who we should lynch, and I have to say that I find Shinn more likely than GC, due to her actions today, and due to GC play throughout the entire game. Also, if we were to lynch Shinn, and she were scum, we would have reasonably good proof you were indeed townie, and that would let us lynch the last scum a lot easier. If we lynch GC and he's scum, it'll be a little bit trickier, as it won't absolve anyone.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Hmm... It's true that my lynching can reveal more than other's cops, but here's an issue: if we lynch (and I include me) me, wouldn't be losing the game? I know that I proposed that before, but I didn't remember that we were so close to endgame.

How about if we don't lynch anyone today, and tomorrow, after more cop investigations, we decide who to lynch?

[Azhrei]

Uhh... Shinn. 1. "if you lynch me, we'll lose" is a logical fallacy and 2. We don't know your alignment, and the point of lynching you is because we think you're most likely scum. If you aren't, we almost definitely lose, if you are, we should be pretty well off. And with every post you make, the more I think you're scum.

[Azhrei]

Oh, and not lynching someone today will probably only screw us over later on, as if we lynch scum today, we will get out of lylo, whereas if we don't lynch anyone, then we'll be in lylo all the way through.

Oh, and suggestin a no-lynch is generally a scum tell. Especially seeing as more cop investigation will probabl not help us. I'd say that either you or GC (most likely GC) would come up tomorrow with no result, as you'd been roleblocked. There's more chance of Zero being town and being paranoid than the others, and the scum will know which of the cops is indeed town, and will roleblock the one they believe most likely to out one of them. In fact, we could end up having one roleblocked, one killed, and no new cop results, as the only investigation would come from the fake cop.

Note: I believe we have a roleblocker on the scum team.

[Artem]

I'm not sure if no-lynch is a good play now that we've mass claimed. You have to remember that the mafia has a pretty good idea of our sanities, and potentially has a role-blocker and a godfather to boot. Somehow, I doubt we'll get anything useful out of the next night now that all cards are out on the table.

Although, one thing we get for sure is another cardflip, which will help narrow down the possibilities. So it may be worth it if we want to play safe.

I have been trying to figure out the best assignment of cop investigations and doc protections for the next night, but I can't come up with anything foolproof since there's always a possibility that the player you're relying on for information is lying.

I'm also wondering if Charrat and I protecting each other is going to fly, considering that the mafia knows whether or not Charrat is a blocking doc; plus, Charrat could be the godfather.

I'm more or less convinced that Shinnen is mafia. And yes, I realize that all the evidence seems to be pointing at me being her partner.

[Artem]

Note: I believe we have a roleblocker on the scum team.

Well, there's still a chance of Charrat being a blocking doc.

[Azhrei]

Note: I believe we have a roleblocker on the scum team.

Well, there's still a chance of Charrat being a blocking doc.

I know, but if we're really, really lucky, we'll lynch scum today AND they're a roleblocker, then we'll know for sure. I'd suggest however, if that is not the case, that neither of you 'doctors' protects a cop. The more results we get, the better.

[Green Crayons]

I guessed that, but I don't quite understand what he thinks from that post. Can you be a bit clearer?

Alright. I will break it down into a series of questions. Feel free to answer them as you see fit.

In post 400, you claim that the mafia is lucky to have killed both a cop and a doctor. Do you agree with my sentiment that your 400 sounds a bit congratulatory, if you were to be scum?

Now, your post 400 seems to mesh quite nicely with some of your later sentiments that you didn't think that there was a large population of power roles in this game. However, you freely admit that you thought there were at least three cops, which makes the ratio of town power roles:general town population approximately 1:2... giving scum about a 50% chance of hitting a cop in their night action. If you thought there were so many cops in the game, why did you include the scum hitting a cop with your surprise and you considering the mafia were "zetta lucky lately?" Shouldn't it have been reduced to simply surprise that the scum hit a doctor, since you were assuming there wasn't one in the game?

Then, you go from surprise that the mafia could hit two power roles in a row to a belief that power roles are going to be a dime a dozen. Do you see any sort of contradiction in these two posts just four hours apart?

In looking Art's MC post over, I personally don't have my gut telling me that there are going to be a plethora of power roles outing themselves shortly. Do you have any explanation other that "gut" as to why you thought this way? Or, if not, do you have any explanation as to why your gut was feeling this way?

Finally, you have expressed that you believe there to be numerous cops in this game. But your suggestion from the beginning has been to lynch a cop (while explaining it away as a tactic that would steer us away from "random lynching," which I'm not entirely sure out of what butt you pulled that out of). If you think multiple cops are probable, why do/did you think we should focus our lynch on a cop?

Also, do you not find it suspicious that after you wanted to lynch a cop and realized that would ultimately pit a lynch between me vs. you (since nobody suspects zer0), that you pulled a 180 and argued for a scumbag's safe haven: the no lynch?



Excessive wine drinking really hampers my ability to communicate clearly over the internet. Hopefully the above is a bit more clear than my original attempt.

[Charrat]

From memory, I believe she said that sanities were revealed, and didn't specify that it was only cops. I'll try and find the post later. Also, perhaps Zee was a normal doc, and you/Artem (whichever one is actually a doc, 'cos i'm 99% sure one of you is lying) is some sort of funky sanity? Hard to guess, but for now I'm assuming both docs are normal, as it really doesn't affect us too much lynch-wise.

I found what spring said, but it doesn't mention cops or docs specifically. I couldn't find the original question.

Also I have been asked if sanities were revealed upon card flip, the answer is yes.

I think there might be some merit to a no-lynch today, although I wonder whether or not we will be in a better position because of it. There is the possibility, since we may have two docs (at least one), that we could have a night without a NK, and then we would have the extra investigations at no cost to the town. But, there is the possibility the extra investigations won't necessarily help at all, and we could be in a similar situation and possibly with one less townie.

I am sure that either GC or Shin is scum, so that means that there is little or no chance that either one will be NKed. If GC is scum, he won't NK Shin because that would reveal his alignment. If Shin is scum, he won't NK GC because that would also reveal his alignment. So, they would probably choose between the other four players. That would mean we have a roughly 25-50% chance of stopping a NK, depending on how many docs we have (whether or not the doc claims are true). I also suspect Zero won't be targetted, because that would reveal his sanity and might help us determine the role of the other cops. The next night will be a WIFOM nightmare.

I think that, if we cannot draw a strong conclusion on which player is most likely scum, we should consider going for a no-lynch.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

I'm sorry, I've been a bit busy. I'll answer your post soon, GC. Sorry.

[Azhrei]

I believe we're all waiting on your answer Shinn.

[Green Crayons]

Posting so I don't get replaced.

[Green Crayons]

(Oh and obviously I'm awaiting Shinn's response.)

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Ok, let's start my answer:

In post 400, you claim that the mafia is lucky to have killed both a cop and a doctor. Do you agree with my sentiment that your 400 sounds a bit congratulatory, if you were to be scum?

I won't deny that it may sound congratulatory, but it's true sentiment is that of a surprise.

Now, your post 400 seems to mesh quite nicely with some of your later sentiments that you didn't think that there was a large population of power roles in this game. However, you freely admit that you thought there were at least three cops, which makes the ratio of town power roles:general town population approximately 1:2... giving scum about a 50% chance of hitting a cop in their night action. If you thought there were so many cops in the game, why did you include the scum hitting a cop with your surprise and you considering the mafia were "zetta lucky lately?" Shouldn't it have been reduced to simply surprise that the scum hit a doctor, since you were assuming there wasn't one in the game?

First, I'm not that good with numbers, so I didn't make that type of analysis. And I included a cop because I was surprised that they hit two power roles in the two nights. As scum you might be, you probably knew the outcome of the night, hence why you weren't surprised.

Then, you go from surprise that the mafia could hit two power roles in a row to a belief that power roles are going to be a dime a dozen. Do you see any sort of contradiction in these two posts just four hours apart?

In looking Art's MC post over, I personally don't have my gut telling me that there are going to be a plethora of power roles outing themselves shortly. Do you have any explanation other that "gut" as to why you thought this way? Or, if not, do you have any explanation as to why your gut was feeling this way?

Not really. The thought just crossed my mind after what Artem suggested the mass claim. Hmmm, let me put it this way: have you ever watched the House MD? Well, if you have, you'll probably know how House comes with the answer. He's talking about something else, and then someone says something vaguely related to his case, and the answer then just appear in House head. Something like that happened to me. Artem suggested MC, and after I read that, the first thing that came to my mind was that there were plenty of power roles. So, call it gut, feeling, or whatever you want. There's no other reason to that. That makes me scum? Pfft.

Finally, you have expressed that you believe there to be numerous cops in this game. But your suggestion from the beginning has been to lynch a cop (while explaining it away as a tactic that would steer us away from "random lynching," which I'm not entirely sure out of what butt you pulled that out of). If you think multiple cops are probable, why do/did you think we should focus our lynch on a cop?

Also, do you not find it suspicious that after you wanted to lynch a cop and realized that would ultimately pit a lynch between me vs. you (since nobody suspects zer0), that you pulled a 180 and argued for a scumbag's safe haven: the no lynch?

When I gave the idea of lynching a cop, I totally forget the fact that if we are (possibly; I still think that there's a small chance there's only one mafia) at lylo if we decide to lynch. If we lynch a cop, we would get more information that if we lynch another townie. With the lynch there's a chance to know for sure the alignment of other townies. That's why I suggested a lynching a cop. Then, I realized that we could likely lose if we just lynch like that, so I withdrew my idea. After that, I suggested a no-lynch, not to avoid a possible lynch of me, but to get more information. Supposedly, we're at lylo now. if we don't lynch today, we will also be at lylo tomorrow, but with some possible extra cop results.

And, I'm not scared of a lynch against me. I just don't want the town to lose. I know that I'm a cop. In fact, I don't even doubt that you're a cop as well, GC. My suspicious lay with the docs. If it weren't for the high chance of losing the game if a townie gets lynched today, I would even give myself for a lynch. Also, I really don't like how all the suspicious are within both of us, when, as I said before, having three docs is more suspicious (or, the other single townie).

[Zer0ph34r]

"I'm not that good with numbers"? Really? That's a reasonable response [sarcasm].

[Shinnen_no_Me]

So, it makes me scum that I didn't, beforehand, make the math for the ratio of power roles? Pfft.

[Charrat]

Does anyone have any ideas to get the discussion moving or have anything to say? I still feel that either GC or Shinn are likely scum, for the reasons I outlined earlier, so I am leaning towards voting for one of them; or perhaps for a no lynch if we can't find a good reason to lynch one of them over the other.

[Green Crayons]

Shinn, if you would just answer this question, it got lumped in to your third reply but you didn't address it.

Then, you go from surprise that the mafia could hit two power roles in a row to a belief that power roles are going to be a dime a dozen. Do you see any sort of contradiction in these two posts just four hours apart?

Right now, I'm thinking that there isn't an issue with doctor sanity. The mod said that this was

slightly

bastard. Couple that with the fact that Zeenon's death didn't reveal a sanity (just "doc," not "(in)sane doc,") whereas Alex's role reveal included sanity, and I think we don't have doctors with any type of sanity issues.

In all likelihood, however, this would mean that one of our doctors is a lying scumbag. I'm actually quite sure of it based off of my previous deductions of the type of scum strategies in terms of fake claims. By that same token, I also don't think the mod would include four cops with an overlap in sanities. It just doesn't feel right.

Doctors with no sanity means that we're missing a RBer, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it's a scumbag's ability since nobody has openly claimed it for their own. With a kill and a block at their disposal, and one (potentially two) doctors who are lying through their teeth, I don't know how safe of a move a no lynch is. It would seem to me that a no lynch could very well be us simply waving the white flag, giving the scum a chance to win the game without us having our one last chance to win.

Plus, even if you want to assume that there is only one scum, then lynching today is still the most optimal of choices. Even if we lynch incorrectly, tomorrow is going to put us at at a 3:1 ratio against scum.

I simply fail to see how a no lynch helps us in any way that doesn't potentially hand the game over to scumbags.

[Artem]

I'm V/LA this week. Should have some time to read the game tonight.

[Azhrei]

I have to agree with GC, a no-lynch is crap. It's most likely not gonna help us, because I have said earlier, if they have a roleblocker, they'll roleblock CG or shinn (whoever is innocent) and kill Zero. That way, we get no new 'real' results, and just one botched result. Or, alternatively, if they roleblock the real doc, then they kill a real cop. Whatever happens, we'll lose someone, and scum will likely be no closer to being outed, depending on the the cop they kill.

For example, if the scum were to kill Zero, and he is indeed the paranoid cop, then we have no useful results. If they kill shinn, and she is the paranoid cop, same thing happens. If they kill GC (a very silly move heir part, if he is a cop) then we should be able to guarantee one scum, and his sanity wil be sane or insane.

Ultimately, a no-lynch will just allow the scum to win easier.

---

Shinn, your reply to GC's questions really doesn't do much for me. It's all too convenient.

The part that really makes me feel that you're scum is this:

In looking Art's MC post over, I personally don't have my gut telling me that there are going to be a plethora of power roles outing themselves shortly. Do you have any explanation other that "gut" as to why you thought this way? Or, if not, do you have any explanation as to why your gut was feeling this way?

Not really. The thought just crossed my mind after what Artem suggested the mass claim. Hmmm, let me put it this way: have you ever watched the House MD? Well, if you have, you'll probably know how House comes with the answer. He's talking about something else, and then someone says something vaguely related to his case, and the answer then just appear in House head. Something like that happened to me. Artem suggested MC, and after I read that, the first thing that came to my mind was that there were plenty of power roles. So, call it gut, feeling, or whatever you want. There's no other reason to that. That makes me scum? Pfft.

You try to use an analogy concerning a popular TV show to explain your actions? You know what's funy about that show? It's FICTION. Fictional characters do not accurately reflect real life, and here you are, trying to explain what you've done with them. Not a good move. Suggests to me you couldn't come up with a better way to explain what you'd done.

Also, at another point in your post youinsinuate GC is scum because he thought there would be a large amount of power roles. Now, I don't think tha's really very good reasoning at all.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Well, if you want another explanation for that, then I would have to lie. If you think I'm scum, why don't you vote for me?

You're all question something that's not really important. If you don't want to believe me that the thought just crossed my mind like that, then don't believe me.

Now, something is making me feel that either GC or Artem are scum. They're trying to much to make a lynch, out-ruling the possibility of a no-lynch when it leads us to a situation similar to what we are now. Both of them are taking the worst case scenario, while ignoring the good possibilities. I know it's good to always expect that, but you can't base a whole argument on that. Does no-lynching get us an instant lose for the town? No. Does a mislynch get us an instant lose for the town? Yes.

[Azhrei]

... Shinn. Tell me what benefit we would gain from no-lynching. Please. A 100%, guaranteed, benefit. I'd really like to see it.


I have a feeling you've lied already, so how could it hurt to do so again? And I'm not voting for you yet, because I want to be as sure as I can before I do. We are almost definitely in lylo, so I don't want to screw up.


On a side note, the fact you're trying to insinuate that arguing for a no-lynch is anti-town is making me lol. If anything, the fact we've had random calls of "No-lynch, it'll be good for the town!" makes me find you even scummier, as it suggest that the town is getting rather close to the scum, and the scum are trying to save themselves.

Hey, a thought just popped into my head. We've had people wonder if we have a godfather, right? Say we lynch Shinn, and she's the godfather, then we'll have Charrat's head on a platter, now won't we? If I remember correctly, it's Charrat and Shinn who have suggested a no-lynch, and I honestly find Charrat much scummier than Artem. It makes more sense to me that way.

[Green Crayons]

They're trying to much to make a lynch, out-ruling the possibility of a no-lynch when it leads us to a situation similar to what we are now. Both of them are taking the worst case scenario, while ignoring the good possibilities.

Have you ever heard of the saying, "Err on the side of caution?" No lynching is nine times out of ten the worst possible avenue of action for the town, because it's inaction. It's giving the mafia a chance to make an additional move without the town being able to keep up. The fact that you're continually trying to push (and push hard) for a no-lynch makes you more suspicious than ever.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

I fail to agree with you. A no-lynch would led us to the same spot we are now, with the possibility of having more information. You're basing your suspicious in me wanting so hard for a no-lynch, but, as I said before, does a no-lynch guarantee an instant town lose? No. It doesn't. It gives us the chance of getting more information. How that can be scummy? You say that one cop will die, the other will be roleblocked, but I believe there's another cop, so that means we'll get one sanity confirmed and another investigation to work with. We may have a godfather, but we can't do anything about it. We are not certain about it, so any speculation would lead us to wifom. Which, end the end, will be a wild guess.

Ah, also:

If they kill GC (a very silly move heir part, if he is a cop) then we should be able to guarantee one scum, and his sanity wil be sane or insane.

I don't think the mafia needs advice, Azhrei. Do you think it's good idea to give advice like that to your enemies? Hmmm... Suspicious... Oh, if anyone who said that I was congratulation the mafia with post 400, then Azhrei's words should look really scummy. Don't they?