Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over

[Vi]

Vote Count:

(unchanged)

Huntress (L-2) ~ Jahudo, SpyreX

Rishi (L-3) ~ CF Riot

Minimum (L-4)

Not Voting:

bionicchop2, Huntress, Moriarty147, Rishi
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 2 | Huntress - 1 PROD1 3 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 2 | Moriarty147 - 2 PROD1 6 | Rishi - 1 PROD1 5 | SpyreX - 0[/size]

First Deadline Review: Monday, April 13 2009
Current Deadline: Friday, April 17 2009

(6 days left)

-----

To those of you who observe it, Happy Easter!

[Vi]

Vote Count:

(unchanged)

Huntress (L-2) ~ Jahudo, SpyreX

Rishi (L-3) ~ CF Riot

Minimum (L-4)

Not Voting:

bionicchop2, Huntress, Moriarty147, Rishi
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 3 PROD1 0 | Huntress - 2 PROD1 4 | Jahudo - 1 | CF Riot - 3 PROD1 0 | Moriarty147 - 3 PROD1 7 PROD2 0 | Rishi - 2 PROD1 6 | SpyreX - 1[/size]

First Deadline Review: Monday, April 13 2009
Current and Final Deadline: Thursday, April 17 2009

(5 days left)

-----

Because it's Easter Sunday, I will forego Rule 6 and instead massprod everyone that didn't post yesterday.
I respect that people have lives, but I'd like to know if you're going to be out for a while so I can keep the activity rules on track.

[bionicchop2]

received prod.

vote huntress

.

[Jahudo]

I'm here.

BC: What do you think about the scum pairing of Huntress, Rishi and Moriarty? And specifically what do you think of Moriarty's suspicion against Rishi or Rishi's suspicion of Huntress?

I think Moriarty-scum was just safe distancing from Rishi-scum because the group suspicion on Rishi was low enough that a wagon didn't seem likely to get off the ground and overtake RC, Rhinox, or pops as a lynch. But this is the weakest link in the Huntress-Rishi-Moriarty scum pairing because it started day 1 and continued to day 2.

[Rishi]

Still here. If it weren't lylo, I probably would hammer here, but I think we can talk about it.

Of course, if no one hammers, it either means that Huntress is scum or all three on the wagon are the scum team. I find the latter extremely unlikely.

[Huntress]

Well, I guess that clears Rishi from being one of a three scum group.

I'm thinking that there can't be a scum group of three as the game would be over by now, unless the three are Jahudo, Spyrex and Bio, or two of them and Moriarty or CFR. In fact, looking at the timings I'd say Spyrex, Bio and Moriarty look a very likely group. Moriarty said he'd be back today so Bio's vote gives me a bad feeling about him.

If there are only two scum, or two factions one of which is a pair, then Moriarty and Rishi are unlikely to be a pair as neither of them sent in an action N1.

[Jahudo]

@Huntress: Any specific reason you distrust Bio's claim? How do you think he pulled it off?

I don't mind waiting and seeing what Moriarty does.

[bionicchop2]

BC: What do you think about the scum pairing of Huntress, Rishi and Moriarty? And specifically what do you think of Moriarty's suspicion against Rishi or Rishi's suspicion of Huntress?

By default, that seems reasonable. 4 players seem to not care too much about the game being in possible/probable lylo - myself and those 3. CF drifted off these past few days, but it was a holiday weekend. It would almost be too convenient if those 3 were the entirety of scum though.

[Huntress]

Why exactly? You thought pops was scummy day 1 but you never told us why because he wasn’t in your top two. Now you don’t find him scummy and we never knew how confident you were day 1. You never committed and now you’re safely backing off.

You really ignored OGML day 1. Why would you vote for ToD now when he hasn’t said anything content-wise? You had Rishi as listed lower on your scumlist than pops day 1. Why has he jumped up so high now?

@Huntress: Why did you downgrade your suspicion of pops from day 1 to day 2 and why did you upgrade your suspicion of ToD/OGML from day 1 to day 2?

I had been a bit suspicious of Pops but by the end of day one I was getting more of a town read from him. As for ToD/OGML I'm not quite sure, I think it must have been a reaction to post 669. On day one I hadn't really got much on Rishi but after my day two re-read he was looking more like scum to me. I need to go into more detail there but his not hammering me is making me think again.

@Huntress: Any specific reason you distrust Bio's claim? How do you think he pulled it off?

I don't know. He may have gambled on there not being a watcher or just overlooked the difference between the way a watcher sees a jailed player as opposed to a roleblocked player. I was thinking he was more likely to be town but I can't see a townie putting an L-1 vote on like that in lylo without more of a comment.

I don't mind waiting and seeing what Moriarty does.

If Moriarty hammers me and there are three mafia then it's game over.

[CF Riot]

I'm back from the Easter weekend, not much has changed. Rishi's non-hammer is the most interesting thing. This means if there's 3 scum either Rishi is town or Huntress is scum. If that were true, it would actually be more likely a town tell than a scum tell for either of them. If Huntress was scum I would expect Rishi-scum to either go ahead and hammer to try and pull some town cred or just not post at all. If no new discussion comes up and the Huntress wagon eventually goes through to flip Huntress-scum, Rishi has just made himself a blatant partner. The other option is Rishi is not part of the team and either Mor will hammer any minute, or Huntress is scum.

If it's a two man team then I don't really know what conclusions to draw from the situation. If it's just two mafia then Rishi/Mor is done. Given our 3 claimed protective roles two plus an SK may be likely. Then a Rishi/Mor team would be possible since there was only 1 kill N1 but still unlikely. It would also lend more cred to BC's claim.

Answering Rishi's post. My vote wasn't a pressure vote, it was a vote for who I think is most likely scum. I had considered waiting to vote until later in the day, but Jah already had a vote on Huntress and you made it clear that you were still devoting limited time to the game, so it didn't seem like waiting would help. Your second quote of me isn't guessing 2 man scum teams, it's guessing possible pairings. I didn't think to say "Mor + Pops + _____ or Mor + Rishi + _____" at the time because it didn't seem necessary to what I was pointing out. The next one is a little wrong. Yes, technically speaking there's only scum and not-scum, but just like any other day there are people you think are

probably scum

or

maybe scum

or

probably not scum

. Lylo isn't any different than any other day in that respect, and my comment was saying you seem more likely scum than BC to me.

[Vi]

Vote Count:

Huntress (L-1) ~ Jahudo, SpyreX, bionicchop2

Rishi (L-3) ~ CF Riot

Minimum (L-4)

Not Voting:

bionicchop2,

Huntress, Moriarty147, Rishi
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 PROD1 1 | Huntress - 0 PROD1 5 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 0 PROD1 1 | Moriarty147 - 4 PROD1 8 PROD2 1 | Rishi - 0 PROD1 7 | SpyreX - 2[/size]

First Deadline Review: Monday, April 13 2009

--FAILED--

Current and Final Deadline: Thursday, April 17 2009

(4 days left)

[Moriarty147]

First off, not hammering. Now comes the intriguing question: is Huntress scum, or do we have a scumteam of Jah, Spy and BC?

The issue I have is the sheer amount of votes active. Rishi is at L-3 and could easily be coordinated into a quickhammer by scum if CF Riot is town (as I believe) and Rishi is town (as I'm not entirely sure of). We have the whole Huntress problem, as stated above, which I'm not sure what to make of. This is all rather worrying, but at least it filters the scumteam possibilities. I guess.

I'm not sure why everyone thinks I "don't care about LYLO". It's true, I haven't been around lately, but it's the end of term and I just had the joys of writing 2 exams today, not to mention I did give V/LA notice ahead of time. In any order, I apologise for my absence.

Also wanting to ask Huntress, what do you distrust about BC's claim? I understand your tunnelling on SpyreX as being...tunnelling on SpyreX, but I'm not seeing either of your other two cases. Not to mention why you don't suspect Rishi at all, apparently.

Anyway, catching up and reading the past couple days. Will post further thoughts in a couple hours.

[Moriarty147]

EBWOP: I find Jah's stance of "hey ley's leave someone at L-1 at LYLO and see what happens when player X who hasn't voted yet comes around" slightly disturbing, as it would have resulted in a town loss if I were scum and Huntress were town.

I know this game has slowed to all but a halt, but still, this is at least slightly bizarre.

[Jahudo]

EBWOP: I find Jah's stance of "hey ley's leave someone at L-1 at LYLO and see what happens when player X who hasn't voted yet comes around" slightly disturbing, as it would have resulted in a town loss if I were scum and Huntress were town.

The only way to lynch someone is to first get them to L-1. I believe very strongly that Huntress is scum and I have demonstrated why. And just because Huntress isn't dead does not mean that all scum are on her wagon. A couple scenario's:

1) A 2-person mafia is fairly sure that there is either another 2-person mafia or an SK. They would not quick hammer because they can't win over night and they would be afraid of losing a member to a nk.

2) A 3-person mafia might have some concern that a SK exists that could prevent them from winning tonight.

3) Huntress is scum. Her partner(s) might be hoping for a different wagon to emerge today, or wait until the right time to hammer so they can strengthen their defense for tomorrow.

I am very very very confidant that one of these is true and explains why a hammer has not occurred. In any case, I am not going to unvote with 4 days left until deadline and the other people I have pinned as scum are stalling.

A hammer right now from Moriarty or Rishi and a scum flip would not make the hammerer look obvtown in my opinion, because they have not shown a progression of suspicion and effort into looking at Huntress's case that would be necessary to make that bold move. It would look like they knew the outcome and used it to bus. CF has shown some inclination that Huntress is scum but not as much as he has of Rishi yet so even his hammer would look questionable. Now, this is all thrown out the window at deadline and someone is forced to make a move.

[Huntress]

Also wanting to ask Huntress, what do you distrust about BC's claim? I understand your tunnelling on SpyreX as being...tunnelling on SpyreX, but I'm not seeing either of your other two cases. Not to mention why you don't suspect Rishi at all, apparently.

I didn't completely distrust the claim, I was just keeping an open mind about it until there was more evidence either way, and, as I said in my last post, I was of the opinion he was probably town but his last two posts are making me doubt that now. Also there is the fact that he is still alive. The doctor could not protect the same player on consecutive nights, or from more than one attack. Come to think of it, his still being alive probably reduces the likelihood of there being two two-man mafia groups unless he is in one of them.

I have not been tunnelling on Spy but I can see it might look like that this round due to my responses to Jahudo's questions relating to him, and the consequent responses to Spy. In fact, looking back I can see where Jahudo has been directing things a bit (see the last line of post 728 for a point I made earlier about this) which reminds me of his play in another game in which he was mafia, although I thought he was town at the time.

I did suspect Rishi but now I'm having second thoughts on that. I don't think he's the lynch for today.

I'm thinking that if there is a three man team it must be Jahudo, Spyrex and Bio as any of the other three could have hammered by now. I don't agree with the suggestion that the possibility of a third party might prevent them hammering. The first-mentioned three may have voted early to avoid having to hammer if they knew there was another faction around, and I think if there was one they must know by now by analysing the night actions.

At the moment I'm prepared to lynch either Jahudo or Spyrex, or possibly Bio.

[Huntress]

EBYOP: That last line is assuming there's a group of three, which is the immediate concern. I'm still thinking about possible pairings if this is not the case.

[CF Riot]

Mor, please respond to post 790 ASAP.

Jah, who do you think should hammer then? You named everyone not voting Huntress. I'm actually really thrown right now on my suspicions. I may change my vote today. Jah, who is partnered with Huntress?

[Jahudo]

@BC: Who have you blocked each night?

In fact, looking back I can see where Jahudo has been directing things a bit (see the last line of post 728 for a point I made earlier about this) which reminds me of his play in another game in which he was mafia, although I thought he was town at the time.

I have been mafia once and that was a newbie game. You weren't in it. What are you referring to?

I don't agree with the suggestion that the possibility of a third party might prevent them hammering.

Why not?

At the moment I'm prepared to lynch either Jahudo or Spyrex, or possibly Bio.

Any reason other than OMGUS? These people and CF voted early because they were active rather than lurking or inactive.

@CF: I don't think it matters much who hammers, since I feel confidant we'll hit scum. Ideally I want to see Moriarty and Rishi present cases before deadline hits and they are forced to vote someone they weren't suspecting.

[Jahudo]

In fact, looking back I can see where Jahudo has been directing things a bit (see the last line of post 728 for a point I made earlier about this) which reminds me of his play in another game in which he was mafia, although I thought he was town at the time.

I have been mafia once and that was a newbie game. You weren't in it. What are you referring to?

Actually, you might be talking about an ongoing game that we're both dead in. I forgot about that one. In that game I was only trying to direct things after several people had me dead to rights as scum. And that was day 1.

In lylo or mylo or near-endgame I often try to take over as town or scum.

[CF Riot]

Jah, who is partnered with Huntress?

[Jahudo]

Huntress + Rishi if I had to bet. Moriarty is possible SK but I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if she was a third mafia. Moriarty looks like she’s independently scum hunting more than surviving at times. Her treatment of Rishi is either very good distancing or trying to catch mafia.

Huntress and Rishi have both suspected each other but failed to give reasons why. They both stated they would vote each other late day 2 when the pops wagon was at full momentum and neither Huntress nor Rishi attempted to push the other’s wagon. Instead they allowed the pops wagon to progress when they disagreed with it. Rishi agreed with the wagon at the end but it still felt like he should have had unfinished business with Huntress.

Post 683 - Pops is at L-1 and Huntress is voting for Spyrex. There are two days left in the deadline. She says she would rather vote for Rishi than pops, even though Rishi is only at L-4 and Spyrex L-5. She hadn’t previously stated that she suspected him and she didn’t push a Rishi wagon, which makes me believe she didn’t really believe pops was a worse choice than Rishi.

Post 735 - Huntress wants Rishi to claim before her. We still don’t know why she think Rish is scum, so its possible Huntress is feigning suspicion here because it is a safe way to suspect someone without pushing a wagon on them yet.

Post 590 - Rishi lists Huntress as a top suspect, I gather because Rhinox was killed night 1 and he thought Huntress was trying to frame Spyrex to boost her case. He doesn’t push this point though.

Post 602 - Rishi says he would vote for Huntress if she were active. It is 9 days from deadline day 2 and pops is at L-2.

Post 672 - Rishi says he would vote Huntress but it’s too late for the wagon. This looks like a deadline decision to vote pops because his next post goes after pops hard but only has 1 soft and open line of questioning for Huntress. He had been waiting for Huntress to re-appear so he could go after her (presumably with questioning) but he doesn’t.

Post 708 - Rishi says Huntress is wishy-washy, but not really a condemnation or threat in that post.

Post 753 - Rishi says he’d vote for Huntress for the same reasons other people suspect her. At this point in the game I can see scum bussing. This independently does not make them scum partners but it doesn’t prevent them from being partners.

[SpyreX]

My personal bets for this hammer are much simpler: when Huntress flips scum, unless you look at some voodoo bussing AND/OR Bio having giant cahones... there's a lot less suspects to look at in the days ahead. A lot less.

Of course, that is partially because:
1.) We have had no nights of multikills thus I find it hard to believe in two scum factions at the moment.
--- My expected amount of scum in this game WOULD be three.

and (which more are going to take umbrage to) I know I am town.

Thus, if Huntress wasn't scum in the highest-probability scenario (3 scum 1 faction) the game would have been over.

In all other probable scenarios (2 scum, 2 scum 1 sk, 2 scumgroups of 2) this isn't really lylo and will be found out. Again, with only one NK I'd be surprised to see two killing factions so the only one we could look at in detail would be 2 scum. If thats the case, that only (personally) reaffirms that huntress is scum because this is a greater loss to the cause AND really lowers the chance of it being a bus in any fashion.

[bionicchop2]

@BC: Who have you blocked each night?

Was discussed with CF, but to break my chain of being stubborn and not generate a side debate 3 days from deadline - OGML N1, CF Riot N2, nobody N3.

AND/OR Bio having giant cahones...

The size of my cahones is decidedly independent of everything in discussion.

[CF Riot]

Nevermind. I was getting super paranoid about no hammer cause I thought Huntress may be town, but honestly Huntress/Rishi/Mor just makes more sense than anything else. I don't think Mor is an SK because of the N1 no action. I think it's more likely that they're all goons and Huntress sent in the kill.

I want to see Moriarty and Rishi present cases before deadline hits

Does this still stand?

[Vi]

Vote Count:

Huntress (L-1) ~ Jahudo, SpyreX, bionicchop2

Rishi (L-3) ~ CF Riot

Minimum (L-4)

Not Voting:

Huntress, Moriarty147, Rishi
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 PROD1 2 | Huntress - 0 PROD1 6 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 0 PROD1 2 | Moriarty147 - 0 PROD1 9 PROD2 2 | Rishi - 1 PROD1 8 | SpyreX - 0[/size]

Current and Final Deadline: Thursday, April 17 2009

(Only got 3 days left)

-----

My next game will be themed around bc's cahones. Believe it.