Mini 878: Nouns Mafia - Da game is ovah!

[Iecerint]

I'd forgotten about that. I remember it looking odd. You may be right. That makes me more comfortable with a Percy lynch.

[elvis_knits]

Also, Konowa seemed like he was trying to tie mathcam to boxman at one point (remember mathcam swapping his vote around a little). I think mathcam might have put down that doc hint to draw the kill since he knew we might go into a booddogle tomorrow on him. But it also suggests Konowa knew boxman was scum (cause they were buddies) and was setting up mathcam for the mislynch in case boxman got lynched. You gotta do that if you're scum -- tie your buddies to townies.

I am not sure how I feel about cam's unvote of Boxman. My initial reaction was the same as Sens, in that I do not see how Boxman's two quick posts can lead to an unvote. cam's reasoning in 199 makes sense to me also though. It is entirely possible that I do not like the unvote based on differing opinions about game theory, but the unvote just does not sit well.

Agree with the last two posts.

Unvote: Sens, Vote: Boxman.

This is most likely just a continuation of the bad gut feeling I got from his earlier unvote of Boxman, but something about this just feels off to me.

[MacavityLock]

MIGHT THAT MAKE SOMEONE THINK MATHCAM WAS THE DOC???

I am pretty sure mathcam was killed because the SK suspected he was the real doc. And I am pretty sure Percy is not the SK.

I'm not sure how this follows. I mean, I understand the point about why people might have thought that mathcam was doc, but why does that make Percy-not-SK less likely to kill him?

[Iecerint]

Percy didn't provide that reason when asked why he killed mathcam. So either mathcam's doc breadcrumb is coincidental or Percy didn't do it. It's also possible that Percy is lying about his reason, but I don't see any reason for him to have done so.

[MacavityLock]

Ah, I see the point. Will do some re-reading.

[Iecerint]

I'm ready to vote Percy whenever. Don't want to preempt ML's reread, though.

[Percy]

Last post!

I didn't kill mathcam for the breadcrumb. I'm a big fan of Dr. Horrible, and Nathan Fillion is my god, so I thought it was a joking reference to Captain Hammer. "Hammer, meet nail" is from the lyrics of one of the songs Dr. Horrible sings! (Not that I'm a hopeless fanboy or anything... )

But it also suggests Konowa knew boxman was scum (cause they were buddies) and was setting up mathcam for the mislynch in case boxman got lynched. You gotta do that if you're scum -- tie your buddies to townies.

This implies you think Budja is scum, which is what I've been saying, yes?

My final read is that Budja is scum, and either Iecerint or SC is their buddy. Leaning Iecerint, as he's very eager to lynch me

Thanks again guys, it's been a blast.

[StrangerCoug]

Mod: Should be well now.

Waiting on MacavityLock.

[MacavityLock]

Waiting on MacavityLock.

Are you saying you're ready to vote Percy?

[StrangerCoug]

Waiting on MacavityLock.

Are you saying you're ready to vote Percy?

Percy seems a surer shot than Budja, so I'm ready to vote the former, but I want your reread done first. We could potentially lose if we don't play this right and I want to know what insight you are given.

[Iecerint]

Same. I almost posted the same thing as SC, but I was going to wait until you said your reread was done. I think Percy is probably RBscum and, even if he's not (probability < 50%), his roleblocks could still screw us up.

[MacavityLock]

The fact that we've had no SK counterclaim worries me re: a Percy lynch. Feels like a maf trap to me. Continuing read.

[elvis_knits]

Blargh. Tired.

I think everyone needs to say who they think is the SK at this point and who they think is the mafiers.

Not that I know exactly what I think at this point. My brain is dead from Christmas shopping.

[Iecerint]

There are two possibilities:

#1 (More likely)
RBscum: Percy
Scum: Budja
SK: SC

#2 (Less likely)
RBscum: SC
Scum: Budja
SK: Percy

This is because Percy only had a reason to claim SK if he was SK or RBscum. (If he were normalscum, he could have been lynched and won the game.) I think Percy making some errors in his SK claim and potentially messing up the mathcam target explanation make him a better target. Also, his claimed RBs are arguably as likely to mess us up as RBscum's.

[MacavityLock]

(If he were normalscum, he could have been lynched and won the game.)

'Splain how.

[Iecerint]

Oh, my mistake. Normalscum being lynched just means that town can't win (unless the RBer has already used his shots up). It doesn't necessarily guarantee that scum will win. Town would choose the winner D4 in that circumstance.

Is there a reason you're expecting the real SK -- if he exists -- to counterclaim Percy?

[StrangerCoug]

I think everyone needs to say who they think is the SK at this point and who they think is the mafiers.

Iecerint is Mafia for sure and the other two scum are Percy and Budja. Right now I think Percy is more likely Mafia than Budja.

[DraketheFake]

Working on a replacement for

Percy

.

[Iecerint]

NK-proof SK also accounts for SC's bulletproof claim nicely.

[Budja]

SK: Percy
Mafia: Iec, SC

OR

Mafia: Percy, SC
SK: Iec

Leaning towards the latter.

[MacavityLock]

Things that definitely occurred night 1:
Elvis X-busted Boxman.
Boxman poked SensFan (exploding both in process)
SK arsoned mathcam
Iec noun-copped ML (this can only not be true if Iec and I are scum together)

Things that definitely occurred night 2:
Someone RBed Elvis (claimed by Percy)
SK arsoned Spyrex
Maf bludgeoned SpyreX

Unless Iec can do 2 actions a night (noun-copping and arsoning), he's not the arsonist. If he is the arsonist, he has no good reason to

not

noun-cop last night, unless it was one-shot. If Iec-SK's noun-cop was roleblocked, wouldn't his arson be roleblocked too? Conclusion: Iec cannot be the SK unless he can both noun-cop and kill in the same night, his noun-cop is RB-able and his kill is not, or the noun-cop was one-shot. I don't think Iec is the arsonist.

I think there's more to be gleaned from the guaranteed night actions, but my brain is buzzing at the moment from having to proctor a final at 8 AM this morning.

[StrangerCoug]

Iec makes no sense as the SK to me either.

[elvis_knits]

Yeah Iecerint is town noun cop or scum noun cop, IMO.

1) With Iecerint as town noun cop.

I think Percy makes most sense as mafia RB. I think his behavior is more supportive of Budja (until today when they are bussing hard... grr!). The other possibility is Iecerint as Percy's buddy, but Percy did nothing for the first day and a half except vote Iecerint. So I don't think they're on a team together unless they did some awesome distancing/bussing all game.

Which still leaves me to find the SK. Not percy. Not budja. Not Iecerint, and he confirms ML. That leaves SC.

SK: SC
Mafia: RB=Percy, Goon(?)=Budja

2)With Iecerint as scum nouncop.

Since Percy makes no sense to me as his buddy, that would make Percy the SK.

Iecerint's mafia buddy... I don't know who I would say that is. He used ML to confirm himself, which suggests ML is probably not his buddy. I mean, technically I guess he could be, and then Iecerint wouldn't even need to be a nouncop since he would know his buddy's noun.

If Iecerint's buddy isn't ML, and Percy is the SK, that leaves SC or Budja as his buddy. I have to think more on this which one I think is more likely.

SK: Percy
Mafia: nouncop=Iecerint, one of budja or SC

[Iecerint]

I find EK's recent post convincing.

Vote: Percy

.

I would also be much angrier with myself if PercyRBscum survived today than if SCRBscum survived today.

[Budja]

Ok, screw it.

Mafia, we both pretty much lose unless we work together here.
If Percy dies, we are both screwed.

Vote: nolynch

Percy, block EK tonight. If you kill me, town win. If you block me, EK can redirect you.
We can force a no-lynch. Its in both of our best interests here.