California Trilogy: City of Angels - On Camera (Game Over)

[Thok]

If the only answer we get is the result of the final choice and the claimed answers, it's hard to imagine how well you can catch liars, especially in the eliminate all choices plan.

I'm OK with SL's plan. I think with another month it could be improved, but we obviously don't have a month.

Who wants to pick an order in which we answer questions? And how are we choosing random numbers, given that we're not allowed to visibly roll dice?

"Lousy anti-gambling laws," Godwin thinks to himself. "Even in prison they let us play blackjack."

[VP Baltar]

My view right now from most town to least town (ie, the order of question asking imo) is:

VP Baltar
ShadowLurker
MightyOrbots
Goofballsandbaloons
Thok
Talilan
hewitt

Everyone should basically make lists and the highest rankings overall should go first, I think. I don't know how we should do number selection.

[GoofballsAndBaloons]

town>>>
Goofballsandbaloons
MightyOrbots
Talilan
ShadowLurker / VP Baltar
Thok
hewitt
<<<scum

[Mighty Orbots]

Dweezil observes the numbers fly by his head, like so many buzzing insects. He plucks one from the air, studies it, admires its beauty while understanding none of its significance, then releases it to join its fellows. They dance in chaotic rhythm around him, spinning, gleaming, reflecting a purity in form and function. Soon though the numbers become interwoven with letters, invader c's and k's that have infiltrated the swarming sea of pristine numbers, dimming their incandescence. The gates opened, the letters are followed by words, evil heavy words: sets and statistics, Bayesians and percentages, that clunk and clang and flounder amongst the numbers and foul their dance. A desperation ensues as the numbers dart and twitch and weave in panic, before the entire tapestry shatters and falls to the floor around Dweezil's feet.

He blinks.

A list? Sure.

Me
Kelly (ShadowLurker)
DEATH (Talilan)
Carrie (VP Baltar)
Tabris (Goofballsandbaloons )
Godwin (Thok)
Count Morcerf (hewitt)

Though I think Tabris offered to go last right?

[Thok]

I don't like lists like this, as I've mentioned in previous scenes, but I see the need for it here. I'm including off-stage people since I haven't given any sort of true condorcet since scene 1. If I did a Condorcet, dashed lines would indicate people who would be in the same set of parentheses on a first take.

Town
Me
-----
{Zufaul, Thesp, sottyrulez would fit in this area}
Shadow Lurker
Mighty Orbots
------
hewitt
{starkiss}
VP Baltar
-----
Talilan
Goofballs
-----
{CKD}
Scum

[hewitt]

hewitt
VP Baltar
Talilan
Shadow Lurker
Mighty Orbots
Thok
Goofballs

[Mr. Grey]

Mod Note:

Flavor scenes are once again up-to-date.

[VP Baltar]

So, I didn't even realize that Mr. Green was dead. I'm guessing he was one of the good ones.

Begins sobbing uncontrollably.

[Talilan]

you're guessing he was one of the good ones? what, you think scum go around killing their own players for fun???? That seems a pretty weird thing to say, frankly.

Thok: I didn't see if you saw what I wrote off-stage, but I was wondering why you were so sure we could give you a signal by firing ckd last scene. If indeed we had lynched ckd as you seemed to expect we would no longer be able to fire him and give you a signal.

My personal list is:

Town

me

VP Baltar-GaB

-no read due to not enough data and no experience with meta but if I had to bet I'd say town-

ShadowLurker

-no read, need to look at in more detail-

Mighty Orbots

-cannot distinguish between scumminess and VIness-

hewitt

-most scummy-

Thok, for aforementioned "slip".

- ortolan

[Talilan]

I have a partially meta-based read on VP Baltar too

[Thok]

Talilan, when I made the suggestion, we were three days into the scene. It was unlikely that you had lynched by then.

Also, I got that thought while I was V/LA and posted it when I got back.

Also, my suggestion was meant to speed things up. If you had already lynched CKD, then we would just be forced to wait the two weeks (and I think I said that later when commenting about my suggestion.)

I believe other people asked why you hadn't fired CKD by that point as well. I would need to check.

(I will also admit to seeing hewitt's post on-stage, where he made some comments about Gaspar, in a way that suggested that a lynch had not happened yet. I don't remember the exact timing of that post with respect to my comments.)

[Talilan]

EARLIER I TRIED TO GET World Wide Web DOT Randomizer DOT Org INCLUDED THE SCRIPT BUT IT DIDN'T MAKE THE FINAL EDIT.

PERSON VOTED MOST LIKELY TO BE TOWNIE SHOULD GET THE RANDOM NUMBERS WE NEED

[Talilan]

Thok, in your 846 you specifically mention us "firing ckd to give the signal that we'd lynched someone". If we had lynched ckd, we would not be able to fire him.

[Thok]

I'm utterly confused about what your point is. You seem to be claiming that the fact that I didn't bring up the possibility that CKD was already lynched as evidence that I knew CKD had not been lynched, rather than me not going over every single detail in the plan. (My plan actually works if CKD was still alive at the time and you wanted to lynch him: you fire him at lynch-1 once everybody has agreed on the lynch, then lynch him once the message appears on screen.)

My plan also could potentially fail if you had been or were going to be the lynch. Is that evidence that I knew you weren't going to be lynched, or just me not mentioning every single detail?

[ShadowLurker]

Kelly talks as if possessed.

I do not think Mr. Green was Vanilla.

Kelly sudden comes to, shaking her head. Her brows furrow, and she seems to have no recollection of what just happened.

My List
Dweezil Zappa, played by Mighty Orbots
Carrie Fisher, played by VP Baltar
DEATH, played by Talilan
Glen Stewart Godwin, played by Thok
Tabris, played by GoofballsAndBaloons
Count de Morcerf, played by hewitt

It seems as if I should go first.

Kelly tunes her ears to atmospheric noise and spits out the numbers almost if robotically

74
14
39
23
51
18
52
37
69
63
47
66
20
34
5
56
41
1
25
6
16
58
62
10
35
53
71
70
8
22
13
4
72
40
27
54
17
33
64
29
12
48
57
26
67
73
28
7
42
59
60
32
65
43
21
46
36
44
11
2
55
24
3
30
50
75
31
45
9
15
38
49
61
68
19

[ShadowLurker]

I will be asking if the set {74, 14, 39, 23, 51} contains at least 1 very good now.

[Thok]

Compiling the lists into a mixed thing. 7=most town, 1=least town. Goofballs listed SL and VP Baltar as a tie, so they get a 3.5. Similarly the 5.5 from a Talilan tie.

Hewitt 1+1+1+4+7+2+1=17
Thok 3+2+2+7+2+1+3=20
Goofballs 4+7+3+1+1+5.5+2=23.5
Talilan 2+5+5+2+5+7+4=30
Vp Baltar 7+3.5+4+3+6+5.5+5=34
Might Orbots 5+6+7+5+3+3+6=35
ShadowLurker 6+3.5+6+6+4+4+7=36.5

(So, that's most trusted to least trusted, for what it's worth. Feel free to analyze it as you may.)

[GoofballsAndBaloons]

I would still like to go last.

[GoofballsAndBaloons]

Alright folks.

This is how "MasterMind" kinda works. MasterMind has different colored pins (6 colors), and there is no lying possible. This is the same, only with 5 "colors" and some people may lie.

Now, a little green bird tells me that there is no way that ShadowKellyGarnetLurker is going to lie, and that's a huge plus with this scheme. With this, I blindly trust the numbers he has chosen as unbiased.

We can get a "VERY GOOD" guaranteed, and if the scum tries to lie, we will catch them and string them up.

So we can do it this way:

SL asks: 74,14,39,23,51

Whether if he gets a "NO" or a "YES," the next player asks for OVERLAPPING NUMBERS:

Mighty Orbots asks: 39, 23, 51, 18, 52

So if SL gets YES, and MightyOrbots gets NO, that means that the "VERY GOOD" is within the first two numbers. See? We'd just need to narrow it down to two.

Also, we should be able to double-check whether someone is lying pretty quickly. No one can lie unchecked with this system. Overlapping with 3 numbers means that the scum is painted in a very tight corner and will be caught if lying.

The chances of there being ONE "VERY GOOD" in those first 15 numbers is 99%.

To show my calculations (actually, those are my

husband

's gay lover calculations, the probability of "VERY GOOD" is easily computed as the 1 - P{everything else}.

So,

1- (60/75*59/74*58/73* [....] *44/59) = .99

Instead of choosing from a set that contains one or more "VERY GOOD" we can actually narrow it down to an actual "VERY GOOD."

So here are the overlapping sets:

(1)

74, 14, 39, 23, 51

(2)

39, 23, 51, 18, 52

(3)

51, 18, 52, 37, 69

(4)

52, 37, 69, 63, 47

(5)

69, 63, 47, 66, 20

(6)

47, 66, 20, 34, 5

(7)

20, 34, 5, 56, 41

Now, if we get results that deviate from the expected number of "VERY GOOD" which is, I repeat, 99% chance of hitting one, this means we may have TWO LIARS IN A ROW. Should that happen, anyone is free to unexpectedly double-check a set of numbers that someone else already asked. Of course, if someone does that it reduces the span of numbers, so let's suppose that we ask for 12 numbers instead of 17. Investigating 12 numbers, the chances of a VERY GOOD is still 95%.

And to put it another way, if we FAIL to get a VERY GOOD, we will catch scum, for sure. Either way we win something today. A VERY GOOD, or a scumbag.

My plan to go last was about making a surprise spot check on whoever is more likely to be lying. But if hewitt can agree to do a spot check on the other players, either of his own choosing, or by concensus. I happen to trust myself more than anyone else, and I'm not sure letting scum have any control on how gets to spot check is a good idea.

This being said, we're probably better putting a very townie player in the last spot, rather than a less trusted player. Start with a presumed townie, and end with a presumed townie. That's the best combination to make sure we have true results.

[VP Baltar]

For the record, I loved mastermind and your plan sounds pretty damn good. The only problem is the lack of colorful pegs in the middle showcasing the failures of our opponents.

I think if we are following Tabris' plan, then a pro-town player should go last as well.

[VP Baltar]

For the record, I loved mastermind and your plan sounds pretty damn good. The only problem is the lack of colorful pegs in the middle showcasing the rainbow of failures of our opponents.

I think if we are following Tabris' plan, then a pro-town player should go last as well.

[GoofballsAndBaloons]

Alright folks.

This is how "MasterMind" kinda works. MasterMind has different colored pins (6 colors), and there is no lying possible. This is the same, only with 5 "colors" and some people may lie.

Now, a little green bird tells me that there is no way that ShadowKellyGarnetLurker is going to lie, and that's a huge plus with this scheme. With this, I blindly trust the numbers he has chosen as unbiased.

We can get a "VERY GOOD" guaranteed, and if the scum tries to lie, we will catch them and string them up.

So we can do it this way:

SL asks: 74,14,39,23,51

Whether if he gets a "NO" or a "YES," the next player asks for OVERLAPPING NUMBERS:

Mighty Orbots asks: 39, 23, 51, 18, 52

So if SL gets YES, and MightyOrbots gets NO, that means that the "VERY GOOD" is within the first two numbers. See? We'd just need to narrow it down to two.

Also, we should be able to double-check whether someone is lying pretty quickly. No one can lie unchecked with this system. Overlapping with 3 numbers means that the scum is painted in a very tight corner and will be caught if lying.

The chances of there being ONE "VERY GOOD" in those first 15 numbers is 99%.

To show my calculations (actually, those are my

husband

's gay lover calculations, the probability of "VERY GOOD" is easily computed as the 1 - P{everything else}.

So,

1- (60/75*59/74*58/73* [....] *44/59) = .99

Instead of choosing from a set that contains one or more "VERY GOOD" we can actually narrow it down to an actual "VERY GOOD."

So here are the overlapping sets:

(1)

74, 14, 39, 23, 51

(2)

39, 23, 51, 18, 52

(3)

51, 18, 52, 37, 69

(4)

52, 37, 69, 63, 47

(5)

69, 63, 47, 66, 20

(6)

47, 66, 20, 34, 5

(7)

20, 34, 5, 56, 41

Now, if we get results that deviate from the expected number of "VERY GOOD" which is, I repeat, 99% chance of hitting one, this means we may have TWO LIARS IN A ROW. Should that happen, anyone is free to unexpectedly double-check a set of numbers that someone else already asked. Of course, if someone does that it reduces the span of numbers, so let's suppose that we ask for 12 numbers instead of 17. Investigating 12 numbers, the chances of a VERY GOOD is still 95%.

And to put it another way, if we FAIL to get a VERY GOOD, we will catch scum, for sure. Either way we win something today. A VERY GOOD, or a scumbag.

My plan to go last was about making a surprise spot check on whoever is more likely to be lying. But if hewitt can agree to do a spot check on the other players, either of his own choosing, or by concensus. I happen to trust myself more than anyone else, and I'm not sure letting scum have any control on how gets to spot check is a good idea.

This being said, we're probably better putting a very townie player in the last spot, rather than a less trusted player. Start with a presumed townie, and end with a presumed townie. That's the best combination to make sure we have true results.

[GoofballsAndBaloons]

Actually, the mod's answers are like the little black and white pegs. And unlike MasterMind, we don't need to order the pegs. Just find where one of a certain color is located.

[VP Baltar]

yer, I just need to talk because my mind really has nothing significant to contribute here. Let's not forget that my career is dead, so I may as well entertain myself.

[Thok]

Goofballs (or her husband), seems to be suggesting a Hamming Code based solution. There isn't anything in her solution that requires her (or anybody) to go last, just that the people follow instructions. [I agree with her assessment that her plan works unless we get unlucky with numbers.]

I'd be happier with her plan if she discussed it before Shadowlurker asked a question, and before SL posted a list of random numbers.