In post 937, GreyICE wrote:Really I thought there was literally no way the town had a protective role left after the flips. Like no way, that's why I called it 1%.
Okay, now there's a chance the scum didn't shoot Beeboy. Fuck.
...
No. Scum shot Beeboy. That is the only thing that makes sense unless you believe in a micro there is another PR that redirects.
There isn't enough beer in the world for that GreyICE.
Vedith is just scum.
Beeboy is never shot by scum in a world where you're town.
Luna is town!
Beeboy is in a tunnel, dangerous in LyLo. If you shoot one of the two other townies (pick 1) there's a chance beeboy shoots (game ends) and if you don't you bring in a guy whose sole contribution all game was to complain about how boring it was, and want to shoot town. Either of them is a fine mislynch.
Luna is scum!
If Beeboy fires, then we are in 3:1 today if he isn't shot. But wait! He's a full desperado, and 2:1 is NOT game over. He gets one last shot to fire, meaning scum have to be townier than BOTH other townies. Almost impossible, and Beeboy would be confirmed town if Luna-scum died.
Lol that magical girls game would have been okay if I didn't replace into boned scum slot with all three of the scum team nailed. Would have been fun to try.
No. Vedith is scum. There is no way that much power makes it past a review board in a micro.
No, it's actually exactly true. And the fact that you had an explanation prepared for the exact person the scum night killed at start of day is not exactly a point in your favor.
About a billion points against your favor honestly.
It's like "oh yes that guy that got night killed here's why it doesn't implicate me"
But that's just... really not a town reaction at all.
But now there's no guarantee the scum didn't shoot me and Beeboy didn't shoot you. Because that actually makes sense.
Math you're a good friend. So I'll say this once. 11 townies vs. 2 scum is balanced. We're missing two friggin lynches between that and 7:2. Two friggin lynches is a lot of lynches to be out.
I mean not mathematically balanced because muffin is really right about 17:2 about being mathematically balanced.
But this is an artifact of the fact that you're so fucking unlikely to lynch correctly at 17:2 that the first few lynches end up barely adding any percentage points at all to it.
Really 11:2 is fine mathematically with okay levels of scumhunting, but it does tend to end scum-sided... oh god this debate is really bad.
Math you're a good friend. So I'll say this once. 11 townies vs. 2 scum is balanced. We're missing two friggin lynches between that and 7:2. Two friggin lynches is a lot of lynches to be out.
You are a good friend too but 11 townies v 2 scum is unbalanced.
In post 959, GreyICE wrote:Because if he yells "YOLO" and fires we don't get to do anything about it whether he's right or wrong.
yeah, except (a) i doubt he'd bet the game on his shot if he weren't going to shoot n1 in the first place (which he really should have done) and, (b) the possibility that a situation like this occurs where there's an alternative explanation for the death makes it a fucking dumb thing to do
Yeah, err... so have I. The 7:2 should be about a 30% town win percentage from memory, it's horrifically low. And a Desperado, Music Vendor and bulletproof.
I'm inclined to believe Vedith. So did Beeboy shoot. That's how this breaks down. I'm kinda leaning no. I mean he still wouldn't have to tell us shit... unless he missed and a jailkeeper caught the real bullet.
In post 959, GreyICE wrote:Because if he yells "YOLO" and fires we don't get to do anything about it whether he's right or wrong.
yeah, except (a) i doubt he'd bet the game on his shot if he weren't going to shoot n1 in the first place (which he really should have done) and, (b) the possibility that a situation like this occurs where there's an alternative explanation for the death makes it a fucking dumb thing to do
You still don't target a townie who has done nothing but whine and tunnel town and claim a role he never used going into LyLo. Do you? I mean admittedly Beeboy was the only person who anyone would slot as firm town I guess, so maybe you just figure he's a named townie and you might as well shoot, but I'd still rather shoot like anyone else if Luna was town and I was scum. He'd be so easy to sell on a Luna vote.
i agree shooting anyone else was better. it's literally what i've been saying since the start of the day. it's part of why i started entertaining the mathblade+pieguy theory
and it's what i asked mathblade to justify with his dumb "muffin+greyice" theory because there's no world where i need to kill beeboy, let alone where i need to kill beeboy with my partner cross-bussing me all game
I... I want to agree. But now it's not free because what if he did do that and you shot me? It's now plausible and that makes me sad.
I nearly want to divide the middle and lynch pie but I'm not sold this isn't bussing - the right play here is to bus them super hard. LyLo busses have good success rates, very good.
I had sads.
