Mini 1672: Bastard++ (Game Over)

SilverWolf · Post Post #950 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:42 am

In post 949, shos wrote:
Alsp has the loved status been tested yet?

Not today. It was proven yesterday.

Titus · Post Post #951 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:02 am

There's zero incentive for scum to kill the cult leader if my analysis is correct. They just shoot the cop and force town and cult to work together to have any chance of winning.

SilverWolf · Post Post #952 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:18 am

I can't see them leaving Maruchan alive under any scenario.

McMenno · Post Post #953 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:14 am

well

should I hammer or no?

Titus · Post Post #954 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:30 am

VOTE: unvote

SW, look at the math. I don't think we can lynch Belo safely today as I think we have to hit the cult leader. While Beli could be, I don't think he is.

SilverWolf · Post Post #955 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:37 am

In post 954, Titus wrote:VOTE: unvote

SW, look at the math. I don't think we can lynch Belo safely today as I think we have to hit the cult leader. While Beli could be, I don't think he is.

Why isn't he the cult leader?

Titus · Post Post #956 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:48 am

He's rolling over and playing dead. If cult leader survives, they can get themselves into a position where town is kingmaker. If the cult leader dies, then cult must join with town to have any shot at winning (unless there are three cult).

Belisarius · Post Post #957 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:55 am

In post 956, Titus wrote:He's rolling over and playing dead.

My bullshit-fu is not good enough to overcome a cop guilty.

SilverWolf · Post Post #958 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:17 am

In post 956, Titus wrote:He's rolling over and playing dead. If cult leader survives, they can get themselves into a position where town is kingmaker. If the cult leader dies, then cult must join with town to have any shot at winning (unless there are three cult).

Hmmmm.....................well, how do we find the cult leader then?

Belisarius · Post Post #959 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:38 am

Have you checked between the seat cushions?

shos · Post Post #960 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:38 am

I don't see how that is a good reasoning for him not being cultist master

SilverWolf · Post Post #961 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:49 am

Does anyone know what happens if there's a 3 way tie with cult, town, mafia or 2 factions tie and another loses because they can't get the majority?

There's no way to calculate exact numbers of how many scum and town there are without knowing if the cult leader is weak or not and not knowing if any scum were recruited overnight.

There are likely 3 cult-cult leader can recruit nightly and isn't dead.

9 of us alive so we need to figure out what would happen if we lynched cult, cult leader, or scum today as close as we possibly can calculate it anyway. Mislynching town is not an option.

Maruchan and McMenno are not cult leaders and likely town anyway. Beli is cult.

We need to PoE down the rest to figure it out and we need to calculate some numbers to see how many of each faction are likely alive or will be alive depending on how we lynch.

9-2 town and 1 cult=6-me because I know I'm town=5. Bins, Titus, Shos, Sal, Peace-of you 5 there are 2 cult, and however many groupscum (not sure of exact numbers) and any remaining town.

I'm going to figure out one scenario assuming there are 2 groupscum not recruited by the cult, 3 cult, 4 town and cult leader is lynched. Say scum kills Maruchan.

Next day=2 cult, 2 scum, 3 town. Cult likely loses here.

Say we lynch Beli and he's not the leader and scum shoots maruchan and cult recruits town=3 cult, 2 scum, 2 town.

If we lynch Beli and he's not the leader and they recruit scum (leader isn't weak), scum shoots maruchan=3 town, 4 cult, 1 scum. Scum likely loses here.

We don't lynch Beli and mislynch town-we can't do this or town loses.

We don't lynch Beli and lynch scum and they kill maruchan plus a recruit happens-cult probably wins here.

So we have to either lynch Beli and hope he's the cult leader or find and lynch the cult leader-these are the only two options for town to stand a chance.

I don't have a clue who the cult leader is or how to find out. Beli got a cult result-he could be the leader. Letting him live is chancing a town loss. Killing him still gets rid of a cult member.

Unless my math is way off, I don't get the setup, or someone knows who the cult leader is and can prove it, lynching Beli is the only way to go.

Titus · Post Post #962 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:57 am

I don't think scum can be recruited...It's never been allowed when I have seen cults.

Mod: Can scum be culted?

Titus · Post Post #963 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:00 am

Also, SW supposing 3 scum is off. In every possible 3 scum scenario, scum have a roleblocker and thus there would be no Beli guilty. There have to be three scum IMO.

Titus · Post Post #964 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:00 am

*not supposing

SilverWolf · Post Post #965 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:14 am

That makes more sense then if they can't be recruited. That weak modified confused me into thinking they could for some reason.

Anyway, they would RB Maruchan if there were 3 and he's been able to investigate so they haven't blocked him. So how does that mean there are 3?

Titus · Post Post #966 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:53 am

Sorry totally confused the numbers rolled in my head with the number of group scum. We know that 0-5 Ms must be present. That leaves us with
MMMMM = 1-Shot Roleblocker + Goon
MMMM = Roleblocker + Goon
MMM = 1-Shot Stalker + 2 goons
MM = Stalker + 2 Goons
M = Stalker + 1-Shot Roleblocker + Goon

In any setup but MMM or MM, scum would have blocked the investigator. Thus we can conclude either MM or MMM.

That leaves CCC or CCCC barring survivors.

Titus · Post Post #967 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:55 am

Thus three scum with a cult leader or a loved cult leader.

SilverWolf · Post Post #968 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:58 am

Oh FFS, I think I finally figured out the set-up after all this time. I wasn't seeing the number of M's and C's that way.

Derp, derp.

OK, I agree with what you are saying now, LOL.

Titus · Post Post #969 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:05 am

So turning our attention to reducing the cult leader, we know it's not the investigator. McMemmo is likely cleared from that category as well because he was proven loved previously. These two also likely are not group scum. I am town which takes us to three town assuming cult did not recruit the investigator or McMemmo. I am town. That leaves one town in everyone else.

Beli is an easy lynch since group scum will join it, we just need to make sure it's right. If Beli is not the cult leader, we should try looking at day2 reads... but I am not sure which goes first cop or conversion so...

SilverWolf · Post Post #970 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:14 am

Wait-How do we know if cult recruited every night? If they failed, they would know that person is scum right? So we should check to see who pushed who D2 like you said. If they were successful every night and there's 3 scum, we are already in a 3 way tie.

I don't know. I'm getting a headache trying to figure this out. I'll look at D2 and go from there.

Titus · Post Post #971 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:31 am

Logically, yes. Yet two players pushing a scum as scum would have gotten him lynched. We didn't see that so we deduce scum lack influence OR scum did succeed and this is illusory and I am already kingmaker.

SilverWolf · Post Post #972 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:35 am

We can still look at those pushes and try to figure it out which I will do later.

And if we are in a 3 way tie, then I already know you are not town Titus since I 100% know my role PM and know I am.

We either lynch Beli or we check reads from D2 and see if we figure out the leader if Beli isn't.

Titus · Post Post #973 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:39 am

Just saw that Beli could be converted D3 because Beli would not be curled till the next day.

Figured I could solve this by VCA but y'all had the lucky fest wagons...

Titus · Post Post #974 (ISO) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:40 am

*curled is culted

Aww fuck this.

VOTE: Beli

It's the only shot we have I think.