Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[LlamaFluff]

At this point *points to deadline rules* we need to start discussing what is and what is not possible. I really dont want qwints lynched right now, and hold Apoc at about the same level so this may just be a bit more important to me then it is to others. Everyone just ignoring what I am saying for the most part about ML but ML is giving me the same sinking feeling that I had day one (albeit it still was wrong) that scum is ignoring scum and town just doesnt care.

So lets start getting out of tunnel mode and actually discussing what we can get done, this holds a bit more true for me as after tomorrow it will be lucky if I can do much more then keep up with my modding game untill the weekend (dynamics, aquatic chem, ODE midterms). So please, lets start discussing and not end up having to do a slapdash lynch or no lynch.

[qwints]

Could you sum up the ML case as it currently stands? I'm honestly didn't see it when I read his posts. You claimed that he didn't interact with SC, but he did in several posts.

[LlamaFluff]

He intereacted to the extent where he called him scummy early in the game, then really backed off and didnt mention him for most of the game after that. Later in the game when SC became a wagon again, he hopped back on which just reads like a weak bussing move to me more then anything else.

I dont see much of a case on anyone else really, just have had a really hard time getting into this game so not a whole lot has progressed past gut scum or town reads. So part interactions, part the Apoc vote (who I still say is likely town) and part just PoE.

[Huntress]

Vote Count

Qwints 2 - (Corvuus, Apothecary)
MacavityLock 1 - (LLamaFluff)
Apothecary 1 - (Qwints)

Not voting 3 - (Elmo, Jazzmyn, MacavityLock)

With seven players alive, it takes four votes to lynch.


Since activity seems to have picked up, and a few people have access problems this week, I am changing the deadline to

Saturday 21st February 10.00 am GMT.

Elmo has been prodded.

[MacavityLock]

Just checking in to say that I'm not back to full health yet, but since this game is late enough, Huntress and I would both prefer that I stay in this game (as opposed to all the rest of my games, which I've dropped). Not yet capable of adding content, though hopefully soon.

[Elmo]

Hi. Stuff happened, I won't bore you all, I'm mostly back now. I have the beginnings of an actual post saved someplace, I'll get back into this tomorrow; just saying that I'm still alive, really. =P

[Corvuus]

glad everyone is still alive. i've been sick due to strange weather as well.

At any rate:

Qwints: you ask me what is the difference between SC and you?

My view of SC was that he was scum, he fake-claimed doc, and then I felt that for a DAY 1 doc claim, he will almost certainly die before the end of the game, so it wasn't worth lynching him then. Either he will be NKed (if he was real doc) or he would die when 'real doc flipped' or when he survived for 3-4 nights in a row. Heck, ythill's defense of SC's lynch makes even "more" sense since he was a 'watcher' and could target SC and probably figure it out based on what SC said.

I was against SC's lynch simply because of 'math/optimization'. If it was 'anyone' BUT SC, then I probably would never have agreed to a day 1 doc lynch. But I thought SC was scum, his claim sucked, his points were strange, etc. etc. but even then I wouldn't have made the leap to lynch him without OGML starting it.

It was only after Elmo (and others) pointed out that the situation wasn't "lynch Apoth-scum today and potentially lynch SC-scum later" and that we would get 1. information if we do lynch correctly (i.e. SC scumbuddy) and we would prevent a mislynch).

I didn't see Apoth and SC as possibly being scumbuddies (bussing etc.) and so I could see how SC's lynch (if SC was scum) would not only 'prevent a mislynch', it would give us information "now" and not "later" when town would eventually lynch SC. So I changed my view, posted it, and was willing to hammer SC.

----

As for you, I don't believe your claim like I didn't believe SC's claim. I couldn't careless about the 'mindgame/wifom' of "scum fakeclaiming a role twice" since I seriously think scum are perfectly capable of doing so especially since scum axed 2 watchers and would town have a doc on top of that who didn't counterclaim SC and who didn't breadcrumb at all?

If this was day 1, then I would consider letting you 'live' and hoping you die via NK and such but at this point, I think you are scum.

So tell me this, if we don't lynch you today, do you think you will live through tonight?

or rather, should I put the choice to you this way.

I will either lynch ML or Qwints today.

I believe Elmo, jazz and Apoth are town. Llama i'm so-so on.

[qwints]

if we don't lynch you today, do you think you will live through tonight?

I fully expect I will be nk'd tonight.

I have not played a doctor before, but I had no intention of breadcrumbing. I would have counterclaimed eventually, but doing so on day 1 rewards scum who are willing to trade one mafia member for the doctor.

[Jazzmyn]

I have misgivings about qwints' claim (as I've set out above) and I don't think that my posts in this regard have been adequately addressed.

But MacavityLock is also suspicious to me and he is, apparently, away due to illness, so I am not going to advocate a qwints lynch while MacavityLock potentially enjoys immunity as a result of his own absence.

Regards,
Jazz

[MacavityLock]

...so I am not going to advocate a qwints lynch while MacavityLock potentially enjoys immunity as a result of his own absence.

I approve of this. Expect something with content tonight.

[Corvuus]

Qwints:

Could you elaborate any more on the following posts? (#s are based on your posts in isolation).

post #6 contains the apparent doc crumbing-ish word 'innoculate' of the 'eventual doc claim' that (you said you believe) is going to come. Anything you could say or enlighten about this?

what about posts #3, #32, #29, #30 as well in terms of what you were thinking and such.

For example: what was your reasons for thinking Apoth is scum in these posts (in between or during your vote for him?)

Corv

[Jazzmyn]

Qwints: Please address my post #906. I'd prefer that you address all of it, but at the very least, please address this part:

Another thing is that Qwints says he didn't breadcrumb, which is fine and I have to believe that since it would not be in his best interests to say he didn't if he did, for obvious reasons. However, when I read the thread, I actually thought he

had

(before I read his post in which he said he hadn't), so something that I first read as a post in Qwints' favour now also makes me doubt the claim.

Qwints replaced in and voted for Apoth, said that he didn't like SC's claim but that it should be tabled for now, that Apoth was the most likely lynch and he was okay with that, then voted Apoth, and then pushed for an Apoth lynch repeatedly. But in Qwints' post #6, in support of his case against Apoth, he said that Apoth's suggestion that SC was a townie faking doctor "seems to be trying to inoculate SC against the counter-claim that (I believe) is coming eventually".

The quoted part looked like a breadcrumb to me. I.e. Qwints trying to hint that he knew there was a counter-claim coming eventually because he was actually the real doctor, and even throwing in the word "inoculate" which is, of course, a medical term. But Qwints says that he did not breadcrumb. So, that makes this post, which I initially viewed as being in favour of his claim, look instead like it goes against his claim.

Regards,
Jazz

[Elmo]

I'm having that thing where I've been away from the game for ages and now I have difficulty getting back into the swing of things. I am "back" but have just neglected to do anything today.

I am still suspicious of MacavityLock, primarily because of the complete lack of interaction between him and StrangerCougar on Day 1.

This much is interesting. I'm cagey about arguments that revolve around people

not

doing something, but given SC's play, I would have thought at least something would have happened if ML was huntin' for real. Bear in mind I am basically taking your word for it, it must be literally months since I reread that section of the game. My gut is stubbornly giving me a fairly town read on him, but I'd be interested in what he has to say about this specific point.

In other news.. see, I don't

think

Apoth is scum, but you have to correctly weigh things in mafia. I think SC's behaviour is a good sign, but I'm not prepared to let Apoth coast along without scrutiny indefinitely because of it. So I think we're getting too close to deadline to bother with really grilling him, but I'd /agree with someone (Jazz?) who said that we need to get him more "into it" and try and read his play directly, rather than playing WIFOM with dead scum. 'cuz his actual play I'm really don't know about, and I'd be nervous if we got to LyLo without moar from him. Actually, we're in LyLo tomorrow with 3 scum and a mislynch today. Crap. Oh well.

One thing I dislike is LF's stance on qwints. He said "oh the WIFOM" which seems an easy way out of taking a stance on qwints' actual behaviour... he'd look okay later regardless of qwints alignment. Also, painting ML as possible scum with Corvuus is pretty fail, Corvuus is obviously pro-town and I can't see any linkage between the two offhand. I'm not really in a position to make a case for it, but the bad vibes have reached the point where I'd be happy with a LF lynch, actually.

I don't have a lot to add to what other people said about qwints. I (twitch) need to reread but at least on first glance, I hafta agree with what Jazz posted about his hypothetical 'viewpoint' of SC. You can say it's

possible

that SC was bussing, but I can't see why it's supposed to be likely.

The big thing on my mind is the nightkills. qwints claiming to not protect OGML is pretty bad, he was obviously the one to protect to the extent that a big question in my mind is why the mafia even bothered targeting him. One conspiracy theory would be that LF's comment about Jazzmyn being "obv town" near the end of yesterday was designed to try and make the doc protect her instead of OGML, so they could kill him at night. That remark stuck in my head because it seemed somehow out of place. That and Ythill's death still puzzles me.

Muh. Maybe more tomorrow. I'm tempted to throw out a vote, but I'll refrain for now. /zzz

[Elmo]

Oh. I missed something:

I still think that OGML's case on Cephrir stands up

Why? I mean, what convinced you? A while back, I said I found your stated reasons weak, at the time; do you disagree?

[MacavityLock]

OK, I'm going to start with defenses, and then move on to scumhunting.

I am still suspicious of MacavityLock, primarily because of the complete lack of interaction between him and StrangerCougar on Day 1.

This much is interesting. ... My gut is stubbornly giving me a fairly town read on him, but I'd be interested in what he has to say about this specific point.

Well, to respond to this, I don't think there was a complete lack of interaction between me and SC. I called him out on things, he was my first legitimate FoS (though not my first legit vote), and I was the one to call for his claim. Soon after the doc claim put him off-limits, I purposefully tried to ignore him. He was clearly scummy enough to not trust any scumhunting and everything else at that point is just noise. (See my iso post 41 for corraboration on my attitude post-claim.)

As for SC -> me interactions, I don't really think it's my place to comment on them. Except to say that I certainly remember there being some and that you should make whatever conclusions you want.

To correct something:

Here's my evaluation of ML:

He's put pressure on players a couple of times and backed off without a solid explanation.

See

Corvuus Day 1: 2 FOS's and a strong criticism followed by a declaration that he is just an aggessive townie.

MM: Day 1 "Top of my scum list" completely dropped after Apoc started acting ultra scummy. OGML's replacement and non-scummy behavior led to a (correct) townie declaration.

Apoth: "My Apoth suspicions, which were stronger than my MM suspicions, from day 1 remain." No votes post Day 1, though ML has constantly pressured him.

Think what you will of the way I've acted towards Corv, but the other two are just plain incorrect. With MM, she moved down below Apoth but was still scummy (again see my iso 41). Suspicions of MM/OGML remained for a while (see iso 57 and 59), but upon a re-read of end of Day 1, OGML "cleared" himself in my mind (see iso 60). Apoth I never really backed off of. Day 2 my vote was on him all day.

So, "He's put pressure on players a couple of times and backed off without a solid explanation" is incorrect. I might have done that with one player (Corv), but backed off with a reasonable explanation of one (MM/OGML), and never backed off of another (Apoth). So, whatever you think this is a trend of, it's not a trend. (By the way, I don't think the fact that you completely missed my Apoth vote is particularly scummy. Just, you know, wrong.)

I will either lynch ML or Qwints today.

Since when am I a suspect of yours? Why? I know that LF and Jazz are suspicious of me, and at this point, I don't know what else I can respond to them about.

----

OK, some scumhunting:

Here's what I said about SC's doc claim.

Here are my initial impressions based on a quick read through.

1. I really don't like the SC doc claim. The odds of running a doc up on d1 should be fairly low and I'll bet that false claims are at least as likely as real ones. On the other hand, we can't lynch a claimed doc without a counterclaim on d1 so the case against SC should be tabled for now.

It's simply not worth the risk of a mislynch.

Maybe the doc was acting scummy to avoid being a nk target. Maybe he was just being an idiot. Or maybe SC is scum. It's just not worth it to lynch him on D1. If SC is scum and there is a doc in the game, he can counterclaim at LYLO or his being nk'd will out SC as scum.

and then of course I quickly hopped on the SC bandwagon as soon as OGML started it.

My thinking was that it would be too obvious if I pushed for a SC lynch on my own post-claim, but I was willing to jump on the first wagon that came along. I did not intentionally breadcrumb and risk scum deducing I was doc, but you should find my play consistent with my being a cautious doctor.

So, here's my problem with the above. I can understand that a real doc might want to follow the crowd in terms of not lynching the fake doc right away. And I can understand a real doc making similar statements about why. But I have a real hard time seeing a real doc writing the sentence that I put in bold. A real doc has got to know that there is no chance of a mislynch here, and doesn't have to say what qwintz said above to stay hidden.

I also have a hard time seeing why Ceph's town flip would cause any change in protection decisions. Between those two things, I'm getting kind of dubious of the claim. I think I'm getting comfortable with a qwintz lynch, and I don't think that the claim puts him off-limits at this point in the game. I'm not going to vote yet, because we have time.

----

I also noticed this from Jazz. Early after her replace, she did those person-by-person summaries. Here's a segment of the one about SC:

SCoug:

...About the Macavity/SC clash about SC answering for MiteyMouse, I didn’t think there was anything really wrong with SC answering Macavity’s post about MM’s alleged omgus vote, but I did find it odd that SC went on to elaborate on it further in his next post even after Macavity made it clear that he wanted MM to answer for herself. It looked a bit like scum-coaching by SC if MM is also scum, or buddying if MM is town.

It's clear that she's aware that there are interactions between me and SC. So Jazz, did you forget this, or does it not count for some reason?

[qwints]

Yeah, new content!

ML, you're right. I missed your vote when going through your posts in iso (probably because it was at the end of a line.) I did note that you have consistently put pressure on apoth. I also wrote that OGML's behavior led to you ceasing to suspect him. I really don't see you as scum.

Now, for the questions I was asked (let me know if I missed any):

1. Can you explain posts #3, 29, 30 and 32?

note 2 + 3 was a double post.

#3: I was trying to establish that I thought SC was likely to be scum. I didn't, however, want to push for a lynch lest I look scummy or out myself as the doc.

#29: " If SC is scum and there is a doc in the game, he can counterclaim at LYLO or his being nk'd will out SC as scum." is the main point of what I'm trying to say. The first part was me trying to appear unsure about SC's claim. I didn't think leaving SC-scum alive would hurt the town too much.

#30: OGML's vote gave me cover to jump on SC's wagon I was trying to imply that I thought OGML was the doc and planning on protecting him that night (which I did).

#32: The first part was a defense against YThill attacking me. The second part was pushing for a SC lynch and again implying that I thought OGML was the doc. Naming particular players who weren't voting for the main wagons and raising the threat of a no lynch was designed to lead to a SC lynch.

2. Why did you think Apoth was scum?

A) He suggested a no lynch.
B) He suggested SC might be fake-claiming as town.
C) He gave up on Day 1 despite being given opportunities to rehabilitate himself

3. Why didn't you do more to get SC lynched?

I believed that advocating a lynch of a claimed doc on day 1 would either look scummy or like the real doctor. Either way that it came off would be bad for me. I did say that "I really don't like the claim" (2) and that "the counter-claim [is] (I believe) coming eventually" (6). Once I had the cover to go after SC, I pushed for a lynch (30).

4. Can you explain post #6?

First, I don't intentionally breadcrumb. I did not choose the word inoculate as a breadcrumb. Second, it was designed to suggest that SC would be lynched eventually and indicate that I thought (though I really knew) that he was lying.

5. Why did you post so strongly against lynching a claimed doc?
To fit in. In other games I have played, I have been strongly against lynching claimed power roles on day 1. I agree with YThill's theory points against the lynch. I was doing my best to appear that I didn't already know that SC was scum.

6. Why did you jump on SC's wagon so quickly?
OGML's vote allowed me to push for a SC lynch without outing myself as the doc. I tried to imply that I thought he was the doc, intending to protect him.

7. Why didn't you protect OGML on night 2?
A) He pushed extremely hard for the lynch of a townie.
B) His posts at the end of the day saying that he didn't know why the day wasn't already over.
C) Jazz being described as pro-town by LF and others.

Basically I wasn't 100% sure OGML was town after Ceph flipped town. Given MM's somewhat scummy play, I thought OGML might have come in and bussed the probably-doomed SC in order to establish himself as obv-town. I looked for a player that seemed to be consensus town and found Jazz.

[qwints]

Apoth, could you please remember to address my questions from 923 in your next post?''

Jazz, are ML and I the only players you find suspicious right now?

[Elmo]

Nightkills still weird me out. I'd like more input, I feel like I'm missing something obvious. Why would you target the obv protected townie unless you knew/suspected he wouldn't be protected? So how'd they know he wouldn't be protected?

They didn't, they thought he was the doc. Ah. That's understandable. So why n2 and not n1? And why do you want to off Ythill? Meh. :/

As to qwints, I don't think I'll really make my mind up without a Jazz-style epic rereading spree. I do like

something

about his recent responses, though. If for some reason we didn't lynch qwints today, who would people go for? (This is mostly so we don't get de facto locked into one lynch.)

[Corvuus]

hm.

Qwints latest post is quite convincing to me actually.

There are parts where I think it is kind of iffy and such, but it isn't a question of what I think, but whether Qwints would think/do that and his gameplay/style. I don't think I would have done the same, but I can see Qwints doing it now.

I never considered that OGML could possibly be the doc (given MM and my previous game/read of him before) so I didn't see/think of Qwints trying to portray OGML as the doc (possible due to wording and as to why OGML would go after SC so 'quickly' as long as you ignore MM) and then rely on protecting him later that night.

I still don't see why Ythill was targeted unless he somehow breadcrumbed his watcher role. People talked about lynching him due to association (thus Ythill himself saying that he won't be NKed) and yet scum choose him over everyone else, including OGML.

Maybe re-reading SC is the best thing to do, I don't know.

Corv

[Elmo]

This game is pretty quiet. Hrm.

You've got MM playing a very conservative, stay-out-of-the-limelight game (indeed because she was actually a power role, just not a doc), followed by OGML replacing in and immediately pushing very, very hard for the lynch of a claimed doc with no stated supporting reasons.

I still don't see why Ythill was targeted unless he somehow breadcrumbed his watcher role.

One way that makes sense is if LF is scum, since Ythill was the only person suspicious of him and his life is hassle-free since then. Even if Ythill's case was wrong, scum sometimes really do get lynched for the wrong reasons, and having scrutiny on you is a priori bad. This isn't a good reason to suspect LF, though, because it could just be something totally different that I haven't thought of, but honestly either him or Atlas (i.e. qwints) being scum have been on my mind since I saw the kill.

I'm serious about examining lynches other than qwints, he's basically the de facto lynch at this point, and I don't want a scramble at deadline if we decide not to lynch him.

I could well be WIFOMing myself here, but it's possible that SC saw his lynch coming and wanted to go down "reverse bussing", if that makes sense. It's unlikely, but it gives me the willies. I wish Apoth felt more townish, really.

I still need to reread and the lack of that getting done is beginning to irritate me. I'll probably throw a vote out tomorrow.

[Jazzmyn]

Jazz, are ML and I the only players you find suspicious right now?

No. See my #913. I am also somewhat suspicious of Apothecary and LlamaFluff at present.

More tomorrow.

Regards,
Jazz

[Apothecary]

Sorry I've been away so long. I got back late last night.
TO Qwints: I'm attacking you because I think you're the scummiest player. I may be interpreting you incorrectly, but that's the vibe I'm getting.

I, like you, would have no viable suspects for Day 2's lynch. I'm looking at other people now but...

[MacavityLock]

If for some reason we didn't lynch qwints today, who would people go for? (This is mostly so we don't get de facto locked into one lynch.)

Apoth is still second on my list, though there is definitely weirdness in the timing of SC's busing if they are buddies. Also, something about LF's and Jazz's harping on me feels exactly like their stance on Ceph-town yesterday. It might be more OMGUS than anything, but I really don't like it.

Elmo, I'm not sure what you mean about "reverse busing". Could you explain, and let us know who you're referring to?

[qwints]

With the deadline in mind, I'm going to

unvote, vote macavitylock

.

I still don't see his posts as particularly scummy, but I'm at a loss for who to target. Given the fact that he seems to be the only viable lynch besides myself, I have no choice but to vote for him.

I still think apoth's posts are incredibly scummy, but there isn't enough support for an apoth lynch. I'd also consider a LF wagon if there was sufficient support.

To those still voting for me, please consider that the vote assumes either that there is no doc or that someone else is the doc. I know I am the doc, but you should be able to see that not having a doc is unlikely given the existence of a mafia RB and the two relatively weak town power roles so far revealed.

[MacavityLock]

"Well, I don't think he's scummy, but I feel like being lazy and finding the easiest alternate bandwagon, given other peoples' suspicions." This is OMGUS, but I think it's well-deserved.

Vote: qwintz

.