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Post Post #925 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 8:58 am

Post by Jahudo »

All caught up now. First the setup comments:

If we’re to believe that the night actions (kill, murder, slay, assassinate) are uniformed to a faction, and if we also believe EA’s claim—which I think we should today at the least—then he is the “murderer”. I feel that makes Greeks most likely “slayers” because hasdgfas and tarhalindur were participating and scumhunting town, and Japanese are likely “assassinators” because Armix was strong town. That leaves the “killer” as the SK, but since the killer killed Rush, I think 2 vigs are as likely, if not more so, than 1 vig 1 SK and I think it helps balance the 2 mafia and the cult.

There’s a possibility that the lack of a night 1 slay and assassination was from skitzer protecting the right person and hasdgfas blocking the right person, or some unknown power but I don’t think speculating further will clear or confirm the last Japanese.

Now that I’ve read all the days I see massive’s comment about the 4 groups legitimate. Since a subject of day 3 was wondering if there were any Japanese left with sekinj’s bah post WIFOM, we now know that there is a Japanese left.

Now to who’s scum:

Today’s lynch should be either Jebus or BA since one of them is lying.
@Jebus can you confirm this:
Jebus wrote:They can't be anything else, 'cause they were targeted by one person only, and they died from it.
Would you be told if multiple people targeted the same person?

@Jebus: Why weren’t you more suspicious of BA yesterday if you had this information? You were voting for other people and not pushing BA.

@Llama: Can you explain or restate this?
LlamaFluff wrote:If the vig kills or murders then we do have proof that Jebus is lying though (assuming EA isnt vig) since he will be claiming having targeted one of the two dead watched players.
Which part would Jebus be lying about? Why does it factor on what the vig does?
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Post Post #926 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 9:16 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

Jahudo wrote:@Llama: Can you explain or restate this?
LlamaFluff wrote:If the vig kills or murders then we do have proof that Jebus is lying though (assuming EA isnt vig) since he will be claiming having targeted one of the two dead watched players.
Which part would Jebus be lying about? Why does it factor on what the vig does?
Jebus claimed to of found two different players doing two different types of killing. If Jebus was fakeclaiming, and even managed to pick out two kiling roles of different alignments, he would of needed to match the vig with the correct kill style. Let say I was the vig and did the "killed" style, even though I wasnt claimed to of killed the wrong target, I could of busted the claim since I should of shown up killing one of them.
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Post Post #927 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 9:54 am

Post by Jebus »

Jahudo wrote:Today’s lynch should be either Jebus or BA since one of them is lying.
@Jebus can you confirm this:
Jebus wrote:They can't be anything else, 'cause they were targeted by one person only, and they died from it.
Would you be told if multiple people targeted the same person?

@Jebus: Why weren’t you more suspicious of BA yesterday if you had this information? You were voting for other people and not pushing BA.
My role PM says I see who targeted the person I targeted. I assume that means I know everyone who targeted that person.

As for yesterday, I didn't go after BA because I didn't have any good case against him (nor the time to go back and make one), and if I tried to vote him, the only justification I could have given for it was claiming my role, which I didn't want to do until I got at least one more.
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Post Post #928 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:37 am

Post by Jahudo »

Ok. Why did you target those people?
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Post Post #929 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:52 am

Post by ShadowGirl »

Vote: BlakAdder


He is now at L-1.


I prefer leaving EA for now as well - seeing as he could very well be vig, and this way we figure out for sure who is scum : one of them has to be lying.
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Post Post #930 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:52 am

Post by Jebus »

Because if I were scum, I would have chosen to kill them.

Tarhalindur was playing as a pro-town, so I assumed that would be someone who was killed.

I wasn't around/got swamped with stuff, and didn't have time to make an educated choice, so I picked Ghostwriter at random.

And as for CKD, he seemed moderately scummy, so I was hoping to learn someone of an opposite scumgroup to him, or a pro-town name I can be sure of.
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Post Post #931 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:11 am

Post by Jahudo »

ShadowGirl wrote:
He is now at L-1.
I think BA should claim again.

Please no one hammer just yet. I don't think we should end today right now because we don't have to, there's a number of people not posting yet who could provide a different interpretation, and we could try and look for other scum for a vig kill and/or lynch tomorrow.
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Post Post #932 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:19 am

Post by ShadowGirl »

And for clarification, one of them being either BA or Jebus that are lying. Sorry that wasn't clear.

I keep thinking there's far less people left in the game then there is. :/
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Post Post #933 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:41 am

Post by BlakAdder »

I've said it before, I'll say it again. I'm a vanilla townie. If the game isn't over tomorrow, promise me you'll lynch Jebus, and possibly LlamaFluff as well when Jebus flips scum. The way Llama's been acting towards Jebus's claim makes me think that they are scum partners
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Post Post #934 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 12:01 pm

Post by Jebus »

unvote


I'ma make this clear. Llamafluff called this out a little earlier ago. I am indeed a watcher, though I completely made up the BlackAdder bit for reaction, cause I was indeed suspicious of him.

So who did I target? I targeted Shadowgirl, who wasn't visited by anyone.

The rest is true, however. I did get EA guilty of killing CKD, and nobody visited Tar.

So yeah, the BA part was a gambit. I'm fairly content, after re-read number two of the last few pages that BA is town. The only thing that makes me think otherwise is his post 910, which just came off as scummy (as in an aggressive shut-down).

And for Llamafluff in this little gambit:
Post 911 - Where'd the mafia doctor bit come in?
Post 914 - So care to explain why Rush was killed by the vig?
Post 915 - Don't be so assumptious.

Just a generalization, you really didn't stop to seriously think about my claim. It was out of place, and I'm honestly surprised BA was the only one to jump on it.

I'd still like to look at EA deeper and see if the vig claim checks out better, but for now,
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Post Post #935 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 12:13 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

Need to explain this again? OK...

As for the mafia doctor theory - It is the only concieveale way this is a scum gambit, and you would need to be Greek scum to even have it be an option. Greek wins with a non-greek lynch today, and all kills not being at greek members. If they can assure Jebus living through scum doctor, its a good gambit. That is why I kept saying its not a scum gambit.

Rush or BA were going to be killed by the vig last night, that was really obvious if you were reading the game. Plus Rush was the only player who I had a scum read on who got killed, armlx was town, cow was town and CKD looked pretty town. It was also why I was a little warry of BA and brought up the vig thing. Given that he didnt die and Rush did (while BA was scummier) I thought he might of been the vig when you claimed.

For 915, you have to be kidding me. You claim watcher and give us results. My first thought is not "Are there reasons for a town player to fake here", its "would this be a good move for scum". The only way it could possibly be a good move I have already discussed. On top of having that happen though, you also would need to of correctly identified two killing roles, from two different groups and either match the vig to the vig kills, or not account for any of the vig kills. Fakeclaiming town never crossed my mind, or should of happened.

I didnt stop to debate your claim, because its pretty damn believeable. There was no reason for town to fakeclaim results or a role, there is no reason for scum to fakeclaim something that has such a massive chance to have holes shot through it. When someone claims something that solid, there is no reason not to belive it. What did you expect BA to do anyway if he was scum? This plan outted the vig at least, and easily could out other types of roles depending on what BA was.
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Post Post #936 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 12:48 pm

Post by Jebus »

I'm not actually thinking EA is the vig. I think more likely SK.
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Post Post #937 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 12:51 pm

Post by Jebus »

I'm not actually thinking EA is the vig. I think more likely SK.

Like I said, the point of this was to alleviate my suspicions on BA, or confirm them. It's sorta hard to point out what a townie post looks like, since there's such a broad spectrum, but I think it falls under the 'townie angry/shocked at false accusations'. I believe he's town now.

Reading up on EA when I get a chance.
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Post Post #938 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 1:02 pm

Post by ShadowGirl »

Jebus wrote:I'm not actually thinking EA is the vig. I think more likely SK.
But he hasn't been counterclaimed. Though, I'm not sure the real vig would/should want to claim, anyway.
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Post Post #939 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 1:13 pm

Post by Jebus »

ShadowGirl wrote:
Jebus wrote:I'm not actually thinking EA is the vig. I think more likely SK.
But he hasn't been counterclaimed. Though, I'm not sure the real vig would/should want to claim, anyway.
Right, and if he's not the vig, he'd probably be NK'd by the vig.

Back to drawing board, I guess.
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Post Post #940 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 2:14 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

I have doubts that CKD was killed by a vig. A vig would of been the one to kill Rush, since he was likely to be scum. The 'duel' excuse doesnt make sense for targeting CKD over massive/Rush, actions were submitted after the duel ended.

Right now I think the Greek is Seph have some idea of partner possibilities but will bring that up later, EA is either the SK or Vig, BA I still think fits too well with Jap to not be it.

If EA is the SK, I would actually prefer a vig claim today, since it does eliminate one anti-town role in its entirety. This would mean only two anti-town kills to deal with per night. If the vig waits for the night to kill EA, there is still a shot going out from him.
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Post Post #941 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 2:24 pm

Post by ShadowGirl »

Well, then we'd probably lose our vig for sure seeing as the doctor is gone... But at least the mafia/SK won't be taking down another pro-town player.
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Post Post #942 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 2:32 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

ShadowGirl wrote:Well, then we'd probably lose our vig for sure seeing as the doctor is gone... But at least the mafia/SK won't be taking down another pro-town player.
Maybe maybe not. In the case that EA is the last Jap mafia, or is the SK the vig isnt a lock to die.

Jebus watches the vig. Now we have power role A watching power role B. So power role A has to be killed first or scum get caught killing power B. We have two killing groups trying to get rid of two players, so they would have to kill Jebus first, because if they both get the smart idea to kill EA thinking that Jebus will be killed by the second, we catch ourselves two scum.

The highest chance is that Jebus gets double killed and EA lives to me, so I am all for a vig claim if EA is not one.

The outcomes are

1) All groups kill Jebus
2) Groups kill both players
3) All groups kill EA

Situation 1 and 3 are decent since we keep a strong town role, and even have the offchance of catching scum.
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Post Post #943 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 2:37 pm

Post by Claus »

Mod's Hint of the day:

Image
Don't fish in shark infested waters.

Vote Count!


Massive 1 - Farside
Blak Adder 4 - Massive, EA, Llama Fluff, Shadow Girl
Jebus 1 - BA
Niv 1 - Niv
LlamaFluff 1 - Jebus

Not Voting: Jahudo, springlullaby, Sierra

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
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Post Post #944 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 3:02 pm

Post by ShadowGirl »

Oh, I didn't take it off yet.
Unvote.


For a second I thought Niv voting himself was a mistake, but apparently it isn't.

Scenario one and three is optimal, but if scenario two happens then... well, at least we'll hopefully have nabbed one scum through the vig kill.
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Post Post #945 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 3:04 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

unvote
vote niv


Since niv is scum for sure. I still want to get it down 100% if EA is the vig or not. As I already pointed out scum are left with a WIFOM issue if a vig outs themselves to finish EA. Also conisder this me claiming "not-vig".

@Jebus - Response to my post about why I voted BA? You seemed to ignore it and still are voting me.
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Post Post #946 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 3:07 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Does anyone think it's possible that we have 2 vigs? I don't know how/when the assumption of 1 SK 1 Vig started but if you think both mafias have 4 players, I think it's possible there's 2 vigs.
Jahudo wrote:That leaves the “killer” as the SK, but since the killer killed Rush, I think 2 vigs are as likely, if not more so, than 1 vig 1 SK and I think it helps balance the 2 mafia and the cult.
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Post Post #947 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 3:12 pm

Post by ShadowGirl »

Hm... I guess just with the flavour I just assumed they were different... uh, 'groups'.

@Llama: Why is Niv scum for sure as opposed to say, spring?
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Post Post #948 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 3:13 pm

Post by ShadowGirl »

Scratch that. I had it in mind that someone else was Seph's replacement.
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Post Post #949 (ISO) » Sun Dec 14, 2008 4:09 pm

Post by BlakAdder »

vote: LlamaFluff
How do you know that the town are in lylo with the Greek mafia? I say scum slip again.
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